Demographics is destiny, in many more ways than one. Good for you for adding the subject to the (long and growing) list of what should be our most pressing concerns for the future.
TImely blogpost. In 6 min the US has 50 babies born. In those same 6 min, China has 144 born, and India has 351. China is the largest English language country. China has more Christians than the US has LEGAL citizens. The top 25% of Chinese intellectuals is great than the population of the US. They have more kids in honors classes than we have total kids!
In 10 years the UK will be a muslim country. Germany will be next. Sweden will follow, as will France , and no one has the will to deport millions of non-assimilated. Japan has finally started to admit foreign workers. I don't know how it is now, but 25 years ago the Japanese had a word for "Koreans that had lived here for hundreds of years", but they were NOT considered Japanese by any stretch.
Assimilation has not worked in any country over the last 3 decades with a large influx of poorly educated, suffering from poor health care, and holding on to a religion that supports slaughtering those that don't share the same belief.
In many countries the cows have done left the barn so why worry about closing the door.
Our kids have more sympathy for Hamas than the slaughtered Israelis. If things don't change soon you can add the US to the list of future muslim countries at worst or list of third world countries at best.
I think at this point a lot of the professors are the communist ideological spawn of the socialist ideological spawn of the old hippies, although some of them are kicking about.
As with our State Department, we've had three generations of progressive selection of more "progressive" personnel.
Yup. I live in a college town and the predictable spate of letters to the editor from academe--all with the same view and even using the same phrases is enough to make one cynical.
Trends are not linear, and difficult to predict, BUT population trends are ACCELERATING downward, not moving at a constant, linear rate. Factor in the "depopulation" efforts of, ahem, certain elements in the upper class, and even without a big kinetic event, we're going to have a LOT fewer people on the planet in 25 years. Toss in Ukraine time 100 due to a global disagreement, yes, that's a lot worse.
Indonesia's relationship with China and the ethnic Chinese who live there is beyond problematic. The mid 60s was a seminal event for the China / Indonesia relationship. The ethnic Chinese used to have different ID cards, and got blamed (rightfully or wrongfully) whenever bad things happened in the country. Indonesia is also the epitome of "highest bidder wins" politics. The bribe you pay today is out the window the second a better deal is presented. No such thing a "staying bought" there. Buyer beware indeed, and that applies to international diplomach and foreign aid.
Historically, Europe has had waves of migration every few hundred years. Almost looking like there’s something that stops people having children as soon as they settle here. And now, we’re looking at significant waves. Not fun, for sure.
The standout projection for me there is 452 million people in Pakistan. If accurate, I fail to see how the country can make significant developmental headway. Hope either I—or the demographics—are wrong.
Much closer to population pressure and collapse than our 2100 climate collapse. More shiny objects to distract from real issues. Amazing how military focuses on climate change which is total bs and misses the virtual ‘zombie’ hordes looking for lebensram in their landlocked nations. Guess based on our current immigration policy and how we integrate today, we are looking in the wrong direction.
Agreed. Islam is an evil & aggressive worldview that must be defanged.
In addition, I would love to see the lines for Mexico and for the combined Central American nations. If we consider demography in Asia & Africa to be worth considering – and it definitely is – then we should be doubly worried about the populations to our south who can walk to our doorstep.
Good article with timely(Ha) reminders. I would add a small caution that demographics do not necessarily equate to actual economic or military power. I suppose that--for instance--Nigeria might someday be a significant world power, but I wouldn't bet on it. Likewise Pakistan.
What I would bet on, Captain, is that the mention of the word "demographics" will become an excuse to damn the person who mentions it. The woke wonks will label people who use the word as racist xenophobes up until the tipping point has passed and a fighting retreat has begun. Pardon my pessimism, but I saw the Algerian banlieue in Marseilles in 1991 before I retired. It was an ugly scene.
I was actually referring to raw numbers in the graph, but yes, culture and corruption certainly bear on the issue. I do recall going to Toulon for a conference with the French Navy, and saying that I might wish to go to Marseilles for the bouillabaisse . That was discouraged by the French.
Bodies without the ability to feed, house, educate and employ them are a recipe for unrest both in their own nations and others. in the "global community" there will be demands that nations which are relatively better off "do their fair share" to transfer their wealth to the less fortunate.
The free market and individual liberty can improve the lot of many of the new and larger populations, but nations which are hobbled by 7th century religious dogma, or addicted to socialism will not prosper. Whether they seek to expand their borders for "lebensraum" or to forcibly seize that which is not voluntarily redistributed, or to restore the Caliphate, we can expect massive turmoil. As a reminder, the U.S. has neither the power nor the obligation to serve as the world's policeman forever to keep evil or desperate people from attacking their neighbors.
The very first thing WE need to to secure our own borders, and evict every person here illegally. Simultaneously, we must bring our spending under control and pay off our unsustainable debt.
I think China's already well on their way to population collapse. Given their history of lying to please the powers in charge, I wouldn't be surprised if their actual population right now is at 1B or less. My layman's opinion is that they'll have issues just controlling what they think they control now. Their economic situation not good, with much of their domestic economy kabuke theatre.
Nigeria has gone from being an upwardly mobile economy with a fairly stable political scene two decades ago, to a complete mess with both the economy and the politics pretty much in freefall today. They used to be the country that held things together in the region, often stepping in for "peace keeping" duties. Unless they get their political situation, with their military control being paramount, and their economy sorted out, I doubt Nigeria will pose much of a global threat. If they completely collapse they could take the whole region with them.
Pakistan has a growing population and is a nuclear power, but I don't see them being anything more than a regional power simply because their political and economic situations are so precarious. Feeding that many people is going to eat up nearly all their resources. As a major breeding ground for terrorism seems much more likely to me.
I have no idea what's going on with Indonesia, have never looked into it. But they control strategic shipping lanes and could pose a huge threat to the global economy simply by the geography they control.
Pro Chinese and russian sentiment in Indonesian grassroot society is high, hence balance is needed (this is my way of saying I agree on this article)
except among Indonesian Fishermen
You are more or less correct. Natuna.
(I am Indonesian here)
Demographics is destiny, in many more ways than one. Good for you for adding the subject to the (long and growing) list of what should be our most pressing concerns for the future.
TImely blogpost. In 6 min the US has 50 babies born. In those same 6 min, China has 144 born, and India has 351. China is the largest English language country. China has more Christians than the US has LEGAL citizens. The top 25% of Chinese intellectuals is great than the population of the US. They have more kids in honors classes than we have total kids!
In 10 years the UK will be a muslim country. Germany will be next. Sweden will follow, as will France , and no one has the will to deport millions of non-assimilated. Japan has finally started to admit foreign workers. I don't know how it is now, but 25 years ago the Japanese had a word for "Koreans that had lived here for hundreds of years", but they were NOT considered Japanese by any stretch.
Assimilation has not worked in any country over the last 3 decades with a large influx of poorly educated, suffering from poor health care, and holding on to a religion that supports slaughtering those that don't share the same belief.
In many countries the cows have done left the barn so why worry about closing the door.
Our kids have more sympathy for Hamas than the slaughtered Israelis. If things don't change soon you can add the US to the list of future muslim countries at worst or list of third world countries at best.
Indoctrination
What else would you expect? The professors are mostly old hippies.
I think at this point a lot of the professors are the communist ideological spawn of the socialist ideological spawn of the old hippies, although some of them are kicking about.
As with our State Department, we've had three generations of progressive selection of more "progressive" personnel.
Yup. I live in a college town and the predictable spate of letters to the editor from academe--all with the same view and even using the same phrases is enough to make one cynical.
Great article. As for "Think smart, be agile, be humble and able to change on a dime..." yeah that would be nice breath of fresh air.
".... and be ready to sink a LOT of boats" might be a useful phrase.
Couple of comments:
Trends are not linear, and difficult to predict, BUT population trends are ACCELERATING downward, not moving at a constant, linear rate. Factor in the "depopulation" efforts of, ahem, certain elements in the upper class, and even without a big kinetic event, we're going to have a LOT fewer people on the planet in 25 years. Toss in Ukraine time 100 due to a global disagreement, yes, that's a lot worse.
Indonesia's relationship with China and the ethnic Chinese who live there is beyond problematic. The mid 60s was a seminal event for the China / Indonesia relationship. The ethnic Chinese used to have different ID cards, and got blamed (rightfully or wrongfully) whenever bad things happened in the country. Indonesia is also the epitome of "highest bidder wins" politics. The bribe you pay today is out the window the second a better deal is presented. No such thing a "staying bought" there. Buyer beware indeed, and that applies to international diplomach and foreign aid.
Historically, Europe has had waves of migration every few hundred years. Almost looking like there’s something that stops people having children as soon as they settle here. And now, we’re looking at significant waves. Not fun, for sure.
There have been studies. People are animals, and like all animals, the genes push for survival.
When life is good, folks don't have a lot of kids. When things are bad, they have more kids. When things are horrible, we breed like rabbits.
things look pretty bad there
The standout projection for me there is 452 million people in Pakistan. If accurate, I fail to see how the country can make significant developmental headway. Hope either I—or the demographics—are wrong.
The world's population is regressing toward stupid.
I blame the safety culture.
It hasn't been America's year since the end of Desert Storm in 1991. Then came the New World Order.
Much closer to population pressure and collapse than our 2100 climate collapse. More shiny objects to distract from real issues. Amazing how military focuses on climate change which is total bs and misses the virtual ‘zombie’ hordes looking for lebensram in their landlocked nations. Guess based on our current immigration policy and how we integrate today, we are looking in the wrong direction.
Communist China is a scourge upon the earth. They are raping and will continue to rape the earth of every resource where their ugly red flag flies.
One thing missing from your slide Phib, is the elephant in the bathtub… Islam.
"...the elephant in the bathtub… Islam"
The threat that dare not speak its name.
Agreed. Islam is an evil & aggressive worldview that must be defanged.
In addition, I would love to see the lines for Mexico and for the combined Central American nations. If we consider demography in Asia & Africa to be worth considering – and it definitely is – then we should be doubly worried about the populations to our south who can walk to our doorstep.
Good article with timely(Ha) reminders. I would add a small caution that demographics do not necessarily equate to actual economic or military power. I suppose that--for instance--Nigeria might someday be a significant world power, but I wouldn't bet on it. Likewise Pakistan.
What I would bet on, Captain, is that the mention of the word "demographics" will become an excuse to damn the person who mentions it. The woke wonks will label people who use the word as racist xenophobes up until the tipping point has passed and a fighting retreat has begun. Pardon my pessimism, but I saw the Algerian banlieue in Marseilles in 1991 before I retired. It was an ugly scene.
Now: https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2023/06/letter-from-marseille-lawless-metropolis-france
I was actually referring to raw numbers in the graph, but yes, culture and corruption certainly bear on the issue. I do recall going to Toulon for a conference with the French Navy, and saying that I might wish to go to Marseilles for the bouillabaisse . That was discouraged by the French.
Hahahaha
Seems like Russia is getting pretty empty........ain't that an interesting scenario?
except the old invasion by Chinese hordes has been canceled due to a shortage of hordes
Bodies without the ability to feed, house, educate and employ them are a recipe for unrest both in their own nations and others. in the "global community" there will be demands that nations which are relatively better off "do their fair share" to transfer their wealth to the less fortunate.
The free market and individual liberty can improve the lot of many of the new and larger populations, but nations which are hobbled by 7th century religious dogma, or addicted to socialism will not prosper. Whether they seek to expand their borders for "lebensraum" or to forcibly seize that which is not voluntarily redistributed, or to restore the Caliphate, we can expect massive turmoil. As a reminder, the U.S. has neither the power nor the obligation to serve as the world's policeman forever to keep evil or desperate people from attacking their neighbors.
The very first thing WE need to to secure our own borders, and evict every person here illegally. Simultaneously, we must bring our spending under control and pay off our unsustainable debt.
I think China's already well on their way to population collapse. Given their history of lying to please the powers in charge, I wouldn't be surprised if their actual population right now is at 1B or less. My layman's opinion is that they'll have issues just controlling what they think they control now. Their economic situation not good, with much of their domestic economy kabuke theatre.
Nigeria has gone from being an upwardly mobile economy with a fairly stable political scene two decades ago, to a complete mess with both the economy and the politics pretty much in freefall today. They used to be the country that held things together in the region, often stepping in for "peace keeping" duties. Unless they get their political situation, with their military control being paramount, and their economy sorted out, I doubt Nigeria will pose much of a global threat. If they completely collapse they could take the whole region with them.
Pakistan has a growing population and is a nuclear power, but I don't see them being anything more than a regional power simply because their political and economic situations are so precarious. Feeding that many people is going to eat up nearly all their resources. As a major breeding ground for terrorism seems much more likely to me.
I have no idea what's going on with Indonesia, have never looked into it. But they control strategic shipping lanes and could pose a huge threat to the global economy simply by the geography they control.
I think our entire effort there now is about avoiding their collapse. Think refugees are a challenge now, just wait.