21-Days of Trump Chapter 2: How is Everyone Holding Up?
Not we Americans...but the rest of the world
The European Council on Foreign Relations has a very interesting article to go along with a recent poll that has some results you probably were not expecting.
Our poll of 28,549 people across 24 countries revealed four things. First, Europeans are almost alone in mourning Trump’s election. Second, many people in other countries seem to see a Trump-led US as a “normal” great power among many in an à la carte world. Third, many also believe the president-elect is committed to ending wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. And fourth, much of the world regards Europe as more powerful than Europeans themselves do. They say the European Union is able to act on equal terms with the US and China.
To wield the influence within their grasp, Europeans need to recognise the advent of a more transactional world. Rather than attempt to lead a global liberal opposition to Trump, they should understand their own strengths and deal with the world as they find it.
It isn’t quite perfect. While it does break out the United Kingdom (UK), it only reports on the EU11 (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia). Anyone who has lived on the continent knows that the opinions of the former Warsaw Pact nations can vary greatly from Germany and France…and especially Spain and Ireland. Amazingly, Japan is left out.
I think that weakens the overall utility of the report, but only slightly as the really interesting things are outside Europe. It is what it is, so let’s look at the metrics:
That is an interesting dynamic. The Mother Country is deep in pessimism and I am surprised to see South Korea where it is. The EU11 is, well, the EU11 who are probably pessimistic for the same reasons, wrongly in my opinion, the Russians are optimistic.
DragonBear is apparent here as well, as one would expect
…Russians and Chinese are much more united in their mutual appreciation than Europeans and Americans. The perception of Russia in China has strengthened marginally since the end of 2022, but so has the perception of China in Russia. This makes this couple a rare “entente cordiale” in today’s global politics.
This vibes with my experience in living in Europe for a few years in the first decade of this century. There is a lot more antipathy in Europe towards the USA than the other way around. It more than predates Trump. My firsthand experience with it was when Bush43 and Obama were President.
The USA is EU-positive, which is something that the Europeans should leverage. Instead they seem intent on making problems with the relationship—something that does not help either party. The media and ruling class still get their view of the USA from the New York Times and Washington Post—and their derivatives—and it shows. People in the USA who only have those news sources hate their own country, so this is no shock.
In the UK, if you get your news from the BBC and their major news sources, it is consistently anti-American to anything to the right of Sen. Warner (D-VA). If you have a view of the domestic issues of the USA from reading The Economist, you are truly lost.
For those focused on the Indo-Pacific, India at the top is encouraging. India will never be “an ally” in the traditional sense, but in a practical sense, each year we get a tad closer. Brazil’s approachability is critical to our hemisphere. Too bad Argentina isn’t in the survey as well.
Very good to see.
This is a reality that the USA needs to continue to leverage.
Even with those who we are not close with, we are seen as a rising power. The fact the view of the UK is aligned with Russia here is…strange but not shocking.
The last two graphs don’t contridict each other, but points to expectations that both USA and China will continue to get stronger. That is probably the smart bet and is where I would put my money. That isn’t great news for world peace. One or the other will have to “break” and the other will dominate—that is how history works—the question is what will be the cause of the collapse of one or the other? Demographics, economics, natural disaster, war? A mix?
We’ll see by mid-century.
Americans seem to be more optimistic on bilateral relations. US-China relations aren’t hopeless, but not all smiles and fuzzy bunnies either.
A final note. Look again at the results from the UK. Our “special relationship” is not so special at the moment, and hasn’t been for years as on fronts from national defense to freedom of expression, the UK seems to be charting a different path. I’m not sure how that will turn around.
Domestically, the UK political scene is as ugly and unstable as I have seen it. On top of all that, they have a problem with lawless migration and the equal protection under the law an order of magnitude worse than anything we may have in the USA. Their military capabilities are a shadow of what they were in recent decades. For some reason, their feelings towards the USA are all caught up in that miasma, and it pre-dates Trump. Until the UK sorts itself out internally, I think their view off their islands will continue to be sour.
CDR Sal, spot on with the UK. It does predate Trump, and they show very ominous signs of violent political unrest, that will likely go the government's way (no 2nd Amendment)...so whoever is in control when the populace can't take it anymore will likely break the populace. I'm half Scottish, and that is utterly depressing. I had a week of recent contact with a group from the UK, they were fascinated to hear my opinions on the world, Trump, the elections, as they had been completely unexposed to such views (thanks USAID, BBC, and the rest of the information control Mafia). They were literally starved of alternative views from the government approved messaging out of Whitehall.
Your second to last chart regarding China's ascendency over the U.S. is a real turd in the punchbowl. Here's hoping it is trailing data based upon the last four years of U.S. foreign policy asshattery on the global stage. Here's also hoping the same survey (if valid data, who knows?) in six months will reflect a different global viewpoint.
I was in London the week of the election and to sit in the lounge of a hotel in Mayfair watching BBC coverage the morning after was glorious. To them a funeral…I sat there with a stone face wondering if anyone else there felt as I did.