A Tale of Two Conferences

NATO or BRICS--pick your team

I don’t think a clearer fork in the road for our civilization's potential paths can be found in 2025 than rising nations’ choice between benchmarking two organizations of nations: NATO or BRICS.

Just as NATO v. The Warsaw Pact defined most of the second half of the 20th century, so too will the world view and the resulting International order will be shaped by how nations conduct themselves, as defined by the Overton Windows of NATO and BRICS.

NATO’s Summit 2025 is taking place in The Hague in The Netherlands. In case you don’t know—what a great place to be this time of the year. Alas, I was not asked to be appointed to a NATO position by President Trump like I asked, so I can only enjoy from afar.

Just look at this happy crew.

OK, not everyone looks happy, and there are some questionable fashion choices, but that is OK. In a way, this is like any other family reunion. You have some cliques, some snippy rivalries, a little gossip, some long simmering grievances, but at the end, you are family and willingly or grudgingly, we stick together more often than not.

I will admit my biases. As a former NATO staff officer, I have great affection for the organization and what is at its core. I do not demand perfection in my personal or professional relationships, and unquestionably don’t in diplomatic and alliance circles. On balance, NATO is an alliance unique in the history of international relations. It has been around so long and is such an institution, I think some people take it for granted.

I don’t.

That is why on occasion I have some sharp comments about members of the alliance who are being less than helpful. When you value something, you don’t let it decay and underperform. You push, prod, and when needed, demand that it live up to its potential. You never get there, but with continuous effort, you get close. Without effort, it degenerates into irrelevance.

I like my team.

This summer, the other team is getting together as well.

Chinese President Xi Jinping will skip the BRICS summit in Rio (July 6–7), his first absence since joining the group.

• Premier Li Qiang will lead China’s delegation instead.

• Beijing cited a scheduling conflict and recent meetings with Lula as reasons for Xi’s absence.

• Brazilian officials expressed disappointment, noting Lula’s earlier goodwill visit to Beijing.

• Xi’s no-show comes amid speculation over Brazil’s decision to host India’s PM Modi for a state dinner.

• Li Qiang is expected to arrive in Brazil late next week.

Let’s compare what these two groups of nations represent using three variables:

• CATO’s Human Freedom Index Score: Higher is better.

• Gini Coefficient: Lower % is better.

• Per Capita GDP as reported by the World Bank as measured in thousands of USD.

The details by each nation are at the bottom of the post, but let’s just look to averages.

• HFI: NATO nations represent a much higher level of Human Freedom at 8.11 compared to BRICS at 6.22. Every NATO nation but Turkey has a higher HFI than the average of all the BRICS nations.

• GI: NATO nations at 31.5% have much less income inequality than the BRICS nations at 43.7%. All NATO nations except for Turkey have less income inequality than the average of all the BRICS nations.

• Per Capita GDP: NATO nations (not adjusted for population) at $41,000, enjoy a much higher per capita GDP than the BRICS nations at $9,000.

We could do another post just looking at rule of law and other factors, but this makes the point.

Why should you support NATO? Why should you desire a future shaped by the NATO nations and their friends and allies such as Japan, Australia, South Korea and others?

Why should you discount those nations who desire to associate with the BRICS nations? What future do they see for our civilization?

Do you desire a future where the human condition has more individual liberty, less income inequality, and more prosperous? If so, the answers are clear.

Where should nations such as Argentina and Indonesia look to for partnership?