A View from Tallinn
some thing are too ugly to avert your eyes from
In the second half of the first decade of this century, I had the chance to work with two Estonian Officers, one a Major and the other a Colonel. The Major was a talkative and entertaining man who had some great stories about being a conscript at the end of the Soviet Union. The Colonel started his career as a Soviet Junior Officer - and a very serious man. His Russian was better than his English, and though he was a nice man and great professional, he was not a chatty person about anything prior to 1991.
In Afghanistan, I kept an eye on the exceptional work the Estonians did in RC(S), and before I moved back to the USA at the end of the decade I had a chance to visit Tallinn ... and that set the hook for me. Well, that and their tax policy.
In any event, the more I learned about Estonia and their history, the more they became one of my go-to countries. When I saw their MOD earlier this month published Russia's War in Ukraine: Myths and Lessons, I knew it had to be good.
Few have a better national understanding of Russia than the Estonians, and it shows;
Most of Russia’s attention is currently focused on its ruthless war in Ukraine, but Putin has not lost sight of the bigger objectives. In fact, in Russia’s view, success in Ukraine serves as a major stepping stone for reaching further goals.
Russia’s long-term strategic aims remain unchanged: to dissolve the rules-based world order. Putin has written and talked about this for the past 15 years, and Russia’s actions have brutally proved it. Re-establishing spheres of influence in Eastern Europe and recreating buffer zones are the key steps in turning the current international order around for Russia. This is the most important reason why Russian tanks rolled over the Ukrainian border on February 24, 2022, and why similar scenarios have unfolded
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Putin and his policies enjoy widespread support in Russia, which has only strengthened during the war in Ukraine.
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Should Russia manage to gain any territory as a result of this war – either de iure at a negotiationtab le or de facto by freezing the situation in its current state, keeping the occupied areas under its authority for a longer time – it will have essentially moved closer to its goal. The Kremlin will have demonstrated that altering national borders with military force is feasible and the West and its rules-based world order can be weakened.
Hence, as long as the territorial integrity of Ukraine has not been fully restored, it is the rules-based order of the West that is facing a strategic failure. It may have come at a higher cost than expected, but Russia is still on track towards its strategic aims. Historically, political concessions are only a fast track to another “special military operation”, possibly against Allied countries.
If it works, why stop?
If you are new here, you can go back to 2014 to see that I have been pro-Ukraine for a long time. I don't hide that. You can go just as far back to see that I am not a Russia-hater either.
I also have no illusions about what a precarious time we are in and the dangers that are very real with the conflict in Ukraine. I also suffer no false belief that you can choose your time or preferred history. We are right to help give the Ukrainians what they need to fight for their independence and territorial integrity. We would not have achieved ours without outside assistance either.
Is Ukraine a perfect republic? No. It is a republic at war. Our republic was not perfect either as it fought to stand on its own.
Anyway, there is no positive gain for the USA or its European allies - or anyone really - if Russia continues to gain territory through military means. She is in the middle of demographic collapse in any event. The odds of her maintaining her borders over the next 50-yrs are small. There simply will not be enough "Russians" to defend Russia.
There will be more war over land - best to have it contained in a smaller mass of the rump Russian Empire with fewer ethnic groups clawing for their place.
Read the Estonian report in full if you have a chance. Well worth it.
Could it all go south and get worse? Sure can.
Will it all go south and get worse if the West were to leave Ukraine to its fate?
Unquestionably.
Regardless of what cards come out of the deck, it is better for Ukrainians to fight for Ukrainian independence east of the Dnieper, than for an American-Polish force to try to hold the line at the Vistula long enough for a German-British-Franco led force to set a second line at the Oder.
Averting your eyes from what Russia decided to do west of the Azov since 2014 will not make it go away - however inconvenient it is to anyone's pet theory.
Keep in mind, that is from the guy who over a dozen years ago wanted almost everyone to come home from Europe.
I still want that - but facts on the ground changed. We will have to wait awhile longer.
Thanks Sal. I was an exercise planner in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Every body speaks Russian there, except, no body speaks Russian there.
The Baltic Countries know Russia.
What is this rules-based order that you keep talking about in the West? Board seats on Burisma? 10% for the big guy? Strzokist DAD and Elvis Chan? FISA 702 non-compliance on an industrial scale? Color Revolutions when somebody doesn't like the cut of somebody else's jib? Maidan Madness? Let's talk about how we got here a bit. Sure, Revanchist anything is bad, Revanchist Russia is worse. But systemic destabilization and our current train wreck that you can't look away from is because our nat sec elites have poked, prodded and blundered us to this sad state. Talk about the hubris. And the grifting has been epic the whole way. Pipe line go boom.
Credentialwise, I speak Russian and Arabic. I've got some military experience and a fancy MPA from The Anatomy of Courage School of Grifting. I'm an armchair analyst now naturally but maybe we should be focusing on de-escalation and containment at this point and not insisting that Khruschev's Gift and a Donbass that the Ukes have no compunction against shelling for 8 years be returned for the Slava of Ukraine.
At the risk of being shot for defeatism, I should point out things don't look so great in the bleed them dry school of thought. We might show signs of anemia first. Ask the logistics experts, I suspect they will tell you that we can't make the war materials fast enough. For the present at least. Do we want no fly zones? Do we want direct military confrontation? If you are going to accept the slippery slope argument for Putin's greater Russia plan then you should concede the escalator to WWW III slope too, I should think. And can I ask somebody to define our vital national interest here? Please no Hegemon in Eurasia B.S. One year of hefty casualties on both sides argues against the immediate threat of the dreaded Hegemon.
So, deescalate and contain. Maybe somebody, anybody smart play Kennan in 47? It won't be Jake Sullivan or Colin Kahl LOL. And we might also add a few years onto the petro dollar run before the new trading blocks like BRICS accomplish their planned usurping.
In conclusion, I may be a dope, but I'm smarter than Jake Sullilvan and Victoria Nuland and only half as arrogant and vain.