126 Comments
User's avatar
Sebastian Bruns's avatar

Sal, excellent comparison indeed. The harsh and sad truth is that European navies have so massively down-scaled since 1990. Nearly all of them lack the firepower and deep arsenals to meaningful deter the Houthis (which an escort mission surely don't!) let along wreak havoc on their bases, supply lines, and firing sites. Changes are afoot, but they are slow. Too slow. And: When deterrence is a product of political will/resolve and capabilities, and one factor is zero, then the product is zero. Here, both factors = 0, which is even worse (I know that mathematically incorrect, but I want to make my point).

Having been in conversations with sailors from the German Navy's FGS HESSEN, the FFG that nominally sailed in ASPIDES last year, their experiences in theater have nothing in common with the glossy EU public relations facts and figures. There is a severe disconnect as well. A defensive political mindset will do these things to you, I suppose.

CDR Salamander's avatar

Such a shame, really. Huge human capital in the European navies, under capitalized and hobbled for reasons that still perplex me.

Sebastian Bruns's avatar

Jeremy Stoehs has shed some light on it in his books and essays. It truly is as complex as it is perplexing. What is most worrisome is that I think (think!) that European navies have gotten the message - but they fail to act on it proper.

Pete's avatar

The solution is simple. Tell Europe that Russia and Ukraine is their problem not ours. Shift troops and assets away from Europe to the Middle East. Why did we have to lose a tank and men in a training exercise in Lithuania? If we cannot deal with the Houthis who are threatening something that is actually in our interest then America is a paper tiger and ought to retreat to fortress North America.

The problems we face to day are largely the result of Obama Biden and the global elites in antagonizing Russia.

billrla's avatar

Pete: Have compassion for all the DC politicians and Sunday talk show gum flappers whose livelihoods depend on convincing us that everything is complicated.

Pete's avatar

And of course we are just a bunch of rubes who don’t appreciate their sophistication.

Tom Yardley's avatar

We could have lost them in Alabama. Even peacetime soldering is dangerous.

Pete's avatar

My point is they should never have been in Lithuania at all.

Tom Yardley's avatar

Showing the flag is important. Unlike our rivals in China, Russia is a mortal enemy of the United States. Poking the Bear is good for America.

Pete's avatar

Are you insane?

Why is Russia a mortal enemy? Where do our interests conflict?

Did we lose a single job or factory to Russia?

Poking the nuclear armed bear just drove him into the arms of China.

Are you or any members of your family eager to march into Siberia?

Tom Yardley's avatar

Yes, Russia is our mortal enemy. Putin's propagandists are foment war between the US and China because that is in Russia's interests.

China is a competitor, building factories is economic competition, the kind of competition a free market economy excels at. We can beat China because a free market is always superior to a planned economy.

Russia is our enemy, and has been since 1923.

Tom's avatar

You've got it backwards. China is an enemy, not a competitor, because we stand in the way of its hegemonic ambitions in Eurasia. And, frankly, economically we can outcompete Russia much easier than we can China.

Meanwhile, Russia is also our enemy, but it didn't have to be that way. Had we brought them into the NATO fold and actually tried to help with their economy in the late '90s in exchange for them pulling out of Transnistria and dropping their support for the Serbs, thereby giving them a stake in the liberal world order, we would be looking at a much different geopolitical ballgame.

Pete's avatar

I recall that Russia was our ally from 1941 to 1945. Maybe that’s just Putin propaganda, too.

timactual's avatar

Indeed. The Soviets, I mean Russians, have been trying to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids since 1923. Eastasia, on the other hand, is our friend.

Ahmed’s Stack of Subs's avatar

euros. like canadians, but with more language confusion and further away.

Britannicus's avatar

FU, Ahmed.

158 Canadian Armed Forces members and one Canadian diplomat died in Afghanistan, several by American ‘friendly fire’ (aka incompetence). We don’t need to hear from the likes of you denigrating our nation, inarguably the United States’ closest friend and ally for over 150 years.

Ahmed’s Stack of Subs's avatar

ikr. passchendaele. dieppe.

😘

Aviation Sceptic's avatar

Root cause analysis: Who wants the U.S. to be involved in Europe vs the Pacific the most? Who might that be? Who buys EU politicians and bureaucrats by the bushel at bargain prices? (Besides Russia, Gerhard Schroeder aside). China, of course. This seems like the first chapter of a book entitled "How to Turn a Formal Alliance into a Liability" or something.

Sluggo's avatar

If it “must be done”, let those who need it done the most carry the load. Now.

Steven Sellars's avatar

I argue that is a very big "if".

Sluggo's avatar

True that. But regardless, it DOESN’T need to be financed by the U.S. Taxpayer. Let Europe cover OUR military expenses for covering THEIR asses…otherwise, Kilo Sierra, Europe (and Asia re. China): Keep Suckin’

GreenEagle1964's avatar

Brilliant common sense observations. Thank you.

Jetcal1's avatar

"They are raising their shields against the arrows while pretending the archers don’t exist." - To be fair? Until somewhat recently our own response was not much different up to and including removing the Houthi from the terrorist list.

CDR Salamander's avatar

The previous administration wasn’t just wrong, they were worm ridden with Iranian apologists.

Jetcal1's avatar

Your post today has also ended up worm ridden with Hamas apologists.

Sicinnus's avatar

The Porch should be honored that the enemy considers it worthy enough to have allocated some of their finite barrage jamming assets against it. Can't stop the signal Jetcal!

Tom Yardley's avatar

The archery metaphor was a nice turn of phrase. Elegant. It’s interesting how practice has made your writing better.

Tom's avatar

While in the camp of "Keeping Europe peaceful and the sea lanes open is good for America," I do find myself asking why we should take Europe's security more seriously than Europe does.

billrla's avatar

Tom Tom: To answer your question: Because DC politicians, US defense contractors and the donor class (banksters, NGOs, non-profits) make huge amounts of money sustaining military conflicts that the US does not need to fight.

P Mac's avatar

Well said. There needs to be a revaluation of our objectives and goals in today’s environment, the days of our bearing the brunt of the defense, IMO should come to an end

Thomas's avatar

Europe does not want to be a combatant on behalf of Israel. They'd prefer that Israel makes a deal, get the hostages out and stop trying to kill every Palestinian in Gaza and the West Bank, and then they can get the Houthis to stop. Guess what? Europe is not going to bomb Iran either.

The perspective is very different. Even Germany is not going to go to war with the Houthis.

Jetcal1's avatar

Gee, all Hamas had to do was return the hostages. Now? They need to surrender.

Until then? Be grateful Israel isn't executing the unconditional warfare they're legally and morally entitled to wage.

Thomas's avatar

What's good for the United States? This one-sided "alliance" is dragging us down like a lead weight around our necks in the Mariana Trench. Lebanon 1983, Iraq 2003, Syria, Libya, now Yemen, maybe Iran next week.

Aside from the fact that Netanyahu funded Hamas, the Bosnians and Kosovo Liberation Army weren't perfect either. They committed war crimes, but we still saw what Serbia was doing was genocidal, and we bombed Belgrade for a lot less that what Israel has done in Gaza.

You don't even have to believe Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, or the ICJ or the ICC. You can just watch the videos that Israelis post themselves, gloating over their killing and promising more killing.

Jetcal1's avatar

Okay, then let's unhinder ourselves and enable Israel to prosecute an unconditional war started by Hamas. And let's not forget the US gave over $5B to Hamas. Although they used it to kill Jews so you're okay with that.

Richard Bicker's avatar

Would Jews be willing to lose their halos, however tarnished, in order to settle the current situation in the Middle East and let other area "interests" know what lies in store for them should they continue down their current paths? I wonder...

Jetcal1's avatar

They already have. The reply to Iran was meant to taunt them far more than as a retaliatory response.

timactual's avatar

Israel has made deals. Repeatedly.

Nigel Sutton's avatar

Brilliantly stated, CDR Sal. Outstanding piece and right on the mark as always.

James Bernard Shepard's avatar

The Houthis are doing what they do in order to try to stop Israel from exterminating the people of Gaza. If you can't see that I am at a loss to understand how you could be so delusional. If your ignorance is shared by any significant sector of American military chiefs I am dismayed. I feel afraid for America and the the world now on the brink of being drawn into even wider war all for the benefit of Israel. How you could not understand how badly it hurts your country to defend Israel's genocide and warmongering? You are tangled in a fantasy of a redux of the campaign against the Barbary pirates? This is deranged thinking. It's pathological. This is the 21st century when you colleagues have the extinction of human beings under their command. God help you to see your way to stopping this genocide and all of us to survive it!

Pete's avatar

James, I think you would be happier on a HAMAS chat room at your local Ivy League college. You’ve bought the leftist garbage hook, line and sinker.

Jetcal1's avatar

Yes, because the Houthi launching missiles at USN ships in 2016 was because of Hamas.

Like Hideki Tojo in 1945, the leaders of Hamas can surrender. Guess it will take a nuke.

Pete's avatar

James is a nut job. His newsletter is the type of rubbish that came out of Berlin in the 1930s.

timactual's avatar

As others have pointed out, it is a peculiar kind of genocide where the "victim" population increases.

Brettbaker's avatar

Time to practice our offensive mine warfare tactics. And have the Airdales go full William T. Sherman and Phil Sheridan on the Houthi occupied Yemen.

Jon's avatar

Bandar Abbas and Kharg Island.

Jon's avatar

ASPIDES: Active Support of Political Incoherence, Defense Equity, & Squabbling

Steve New's avatar

I know you never like to hear this reality but...if Israel was forced to STOP genociding two million men, women and children in Gaza there would be no "problem" in the Red Sea. Trump CAN end this with one phone call. He wont but he can so the responsibility ends at his desk...

Jetcal1's avatar

Dear Hamas,

Don't start a war you can't finish.

Best regards,

Hideki Tojo

Hamas can surrender at any time.

Steve New's avatar

I see the Zionist talking points has arrived 8) You DO know Israel founded and funded Hamas...right. You DO know Bibi as WARNED Hamas would get tured of watching hospitals and apartments bombed...right

. You know the foljs in Yemen have strictly followed international norms...right? I could go on but...

Jetcal1's avatar

I know that Hamas like the other Iranian vassal Hezbollah has been lobbing missiles into Israel for decades.. I know Hamas killed women and children and took hostages. Those are not international norms. The Houthi aligned themselves with Hamas and went casus belli on both shipping and Israel. I know Iran also attacked Israel which is also casus belli.

Please go on……after lobbing missiles into Israel for decades and killing thousands only a anti semite would apologize for the behavior of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi, and Iran.

Richard Bicker's avatar

There are different diplomatic standards and military ROEs for Israel and its adversaries. Someday, sooner rather than later, there will be common standards. That will end the conflict for a long time to come.

Jetcal1's avatar

Tehran will be glowing.

timactual's avatar

"Someday, sooner rather than later, there will be common standards"

If so, the "Palestinians" will indeed be the subject of genocide.

Pete's avatar

I am sure you can go on and on. You are only on page 3 of Mein Kampf.

Steve New's avatar

I guess the Zionists are out in force. I understand the frustration. Israel CREATED Hamas after all. Funded and aided it. Meanwhile the IDF routinely bombed schools, hospitals and churches (those are called genocide by the way)

We hung some Germans at Nurmberg for faaar less.

Oh by the way, Hamas is the VOTED for legitimate Gov of Gaza (must a really frosted Bibi that...) Seems on Oct 7 folks in Gaza got tired of being genocided in their homes and started shooting back...tough cookies...

Jetcal1's avatar

Your read of genocide and bombing of specific targets is exceptionally ignorant

“.……unless they are used for military purposes or are directly participating in hostilities.” Perhaps you should take up the use of those facilities for military purpose with Hamas.

“We hung some Germans at Nurmberg for faaar less” - Great, then the precedent is there to hang any surviving Hamas leadership. After all, they're the legitimately elected officials. They can surrender or Gaza delenda est. (If you can get them to leave their billions and mistresses in Qatar. I mean, they ain't the ones dying.)

timactual's avatar

"those are called genocide by the way"

No. They may be called collateral damage, or war crimes, or other things, but not genocide.

"...with the aim of destroying that nation or group."

If the Israelis were actually practicing genocide, after 78 years there would be no "Palestinians" left. Surely they have learned something from WWII. Or do you think incompetence is also one of the Zionists failings?

Tom's avatar

(Looks at the casualty totals in Gaza)

If Israel continues to kill the inhabitants of the Gaza Strip at their current rate, it will take them thirty to forty years to kill everyone there.

If this is a genocide, it's the most incompetently executed one in history.

If you want to make the argument that the Israelis have been negligent and callous in Gaza, I'll listen, and probably agree with you. Genocide? Go soak your head.

Thomas's avatar

Israel is killing more civilians in Gaza and the West Bank, proportionally, and I think absolutely than Serbia did in Bosnia in 1992 on, and in Kosovo from 1998 on.

That was found to be genocide. You don't have to kill everyone for it to be a genocide, intent plays a big role. Israeli politicians like Ben Gvir make a genocidal statement every day.

And we bombed Serbia for that. Slobodan Milošević died in prison. Radovan Karadžić and Ratko Mladić are still in prison.

You have to be blind to the facts and to history not to see it as a genocidal campaign. There's a reason why the ICJ and ICC have ruled the way they did.

Tom's avatar

In the Bosnian War, you had incidents like Srebrenica, where the Serbs deliberately targeted a refugee camp and killed 8,000 unarmed men.

Nothing like that has happened in Gaza.

And yes, there is a reason the ICJ and ICC have ruled as they have. It's called "the international community of the very very caring and sensitive abhors violence that actually accomplishes something."

Thomas's avatar

The have been multiple bombings of refugee camps in Gaza. Just Google "Israel bombs refugee camp in Gaza" or "attacks on Refugee camps in Gaza war." There's even a separate Wikipedia page listing them. You can look at the pictures to see there is no restraint or proportionality. The former Freedom Caucus Republican Representative Justin Amash has posted videos from his relatives showing the indiscriminate bombing.

For intent, the X/Twitter account @ytirawi has collected an astounding number of videos in which Israeli soldiers and politicians say things like “There are no innocents in Gaza” , “Wipe out the memory of the Amaleks”

If we want to go back we can talk about Sabra and Shattila massacre which led Reagan to call Begin to stop it -and then the Marines being sent in. We know how that ended. Again, they are a drag on the USA.

Tom's avatar

Given that, unlike the Bosnians, Hampshire has regularly operated out of refugee camps, I hope I may be forgiven for regarding these events as being rather different in both degree and kind.

Sorry, but the facts don't add up. If the Israelis were as murderous as the Serbs were, there would be a lot more dead Gazans.

I will also remind you that extremists spouting eliminationist rhetoric in the wake of events like October 7 is pretty normal. I seem to recall that, after a similar occurrence on a December 7, Americans were saying things like "By the time we're done, Japanese will be spoken only in Hell."

Pete's avatar

No use arguing with Jew baiters.

Thomas's avatar

For Gaza, there's the story of Hind Rajab and just a day ago, the Red Cross medics killed, and also the revelation that the IDF has been grabbing Gazans to be human shields.

We can also look at the West Bank. It's easy to find videos of Israeli Jewish settlers attacking Palestinian shepherds and olive farmers there. The settlers chop down olive trees. Pogroms are a weekly occurrence, supported by the IDF. Ethnic cleansing is a part of genocide, and if you haven't been paying attention, just Google "settlers take Palestinian home" or "settlers attack Palestinians" to find instances. Many of the stories are from Israeli sources, in some ways their press is freer than the US press in reporting on Israeli depredations. Ha'aretz covers things fairly well.

Your frame is entirely dependent on official endorsement rather than examination of the facts.

Serbs are "murderous" because the government told you so. Israelis do the same things, and they're fine because the government told you so.

Like, Saudi Arabia is a good country, and Iran is a bad country.

Richard's avatar

The Bosnian war has an impact on the Ukraine war. Serbia is a traditional Russian ally and that was the first occasion that NATO waged an offensive war. Whatever the Serbs did, they threatened no NATO nation which is supposed to be the standard for NATO action. The Russians were too weak to do much of anything then but they definitely noticed and further NATO actions eventually provoked a reaction.

Pete's avatar

Steve’s Substack can be abbreviated as SS. How appropriate. Where do these Jew baiters come from?

Bill Befort's avatar

If only the Jews would agree to give up some more land, there would be peace. Right.

Steve New's avatar

You are talking about the local folks who have lived there for two thousand years (thats palistinians who are real semites by the way) right? If your talking about the semite hating settlers from Europe and Brooklyn well...they are owed nothing BUT they could live in peace as part of the nultiethnic Palestine that existed for centuries... Your choice and non of amercas business either way...

Jetcal1's avatar

Two thousand years? Wow! Are you absolutely sure they've been there the entire two thousand years?

Steve New's avatar

Original inhabitants do tend to be like that. Colonist from europe not so.much....

Jetcal1's avatar

Perhaps you need to speak to your Palestinian colonists since the Jews have been for three thousand years. Not the two of your invaders. Mount Olive Cemetery ring a bell. Your condescending arrogant antisemitism is only exceeded by your historical ignorance.

Gaza delenda est.

Steve New's avatar

Zionist talking points carry less and less these day I'm afraid. To many folks are remembering the Zionist terrorism at the King David Hotel and the USS Liberty. As the palestinians are...wait for it....semites calling someone an anti-semite who apposes genocide of 2 million palestinians just doesnt work anymore. We just have no interest having our kids die for anti-semites ( the folks genociding the population of gaza).

timactual's avatar

Well, at least since the Romans invented the word "Palestina" about the area inhabited by those pesky Judeans, aka Jews.