If we did manage to get New Zealand on-side, I would be surprised and not sure if I would be pleased--it's a beautiful country and I hear the people are nice, but politically they've been the least reliable and most annoying member of the five eyes for decades, and their leftists make the Australian ones look like Marco Rubio.
Still, keeping up the Pacific pivot is good, and if we can use this as a blueprint and foundation for increasing cooperation I'm for it. Containing China until it comes apart due to bad demographics is much better than fighting a shooting war.
Demographics apply to all countries, not just China. Suggest folks consider carefully (query your favorite AI) the demographic futures and timeframes facing Japan, UK, Canada, New Zealand, and the other members of what used to be called the "free world."
I have, actually, and they're all better off than China is.
And, frankly, outside of East Asia, the "demographic problems" are fixable if the governments actually return to the rule of law rather than continue to play identity politics.
Demographics were part of my portfolio. Just about every nation on the planet (including sub-Saharan Africa) has imploding demographics. Even the "go forth and multiply to displace the unbelievers" religion of peace has a relatively big "crash" birth rate wise. That was 15 years ago. Also, always try to get under the hood of demographic data. You may find you are looking at numbers from...15 years prior.
Yeah, I remember back when "Inferno" came out I did some poking around and found they were predicting zero population growth by 2100. Last I checked they were saying ZPG would hit in 2090.
Big difference between current trend and the momentum of population growth even as birth rates slow and turn negative. For those only vaguely familiar with demographics and the population magnitudes and timescales involved, I suggest Googling "demographic transition" to learn about the four phases of the model. Also, don't forget to query your favorite AI(s) for their "views" on demographics as applied to specific countries and regions.
Basically politicians and economists just begun to realize - era of "cheap manpower" is over, humans are valuable national resource that must be carefully preserved, not dismissed.
Sadly, the level of penetration of both NZ and AUS by the CCP is quite disturbing. They may actually rival Canada as a "classified information pipeline" to China. Depressing, but true.
I suspect the USN will have zero problems with getting Sailors to do a tour there at the maintenance facility. It is also a rare opportunity for USN nukes to get a good deal. It might turn into a good problem for our Navy, in that I’m guessing many, not all, but many will try to get locked into a sea/shore rotation over there. Making it hard for others to get back or there. They should name a sub or better yet the new tender the USN will need USS San Pablo.
Suggestion: allow the Japanese to buy 3 Virginia class subs (new build), and license them to build 6 more in their own yards. When those are built, allow them to build additional subs for the Australians and for us.
We win with expanded capacity, the Japanese win with a great sub, and all of us win with more boats gliding under the water.
I'm not sure Japan actually want SSN, or consider them efficient for their situation. Japan is much close to China than Australia. They are perfectly within the range of AIP boats - whom are much cheaper, smaller, more numerous and almost completely silent. Large SSN's would likely be a disadvantage for Japan; their range is not exactly very important, if you have your opponent just several thousand miles away.
Dilandu, good to see you. One could make a similar argument for Australia -- they aren't THAT far away from China. But the advantage of an SSN for them also applies to Japan -- not just range, but endurance. An SSN can stay at sea and on station a long time. A Virginia-class boat also can provide more punch than a SS(AIP).
Not saying there isn't a place for an AIP boat, but the ability to stain the Chinese shorts would give the nod to the Virginia and follow-on AUKUS SSNs. Just a thought.
Well, for Australia the situation is much close to "all-or-nothing" scenario, than for Japan. Australia can't hope to stand against China alone; the choices for Australia are either to fight a coalition war (for which SSN are more useful), or avoid confrontation with China at all (for which SSN are more a problem, than an advantage). For Japan, situation is more nuanced, since they are much closer to the near-peer opponent, and thus have much broader spectrum of possible choices.
Hello Dilandu, I meant to communicate the idea that Japan could aid Aukus nations with submarine construction assistance even if they don’t see the strategic or tactical need for operating SSN’s for their own fleet. I agree with you that the SSK’s fleet they operate is well place due to range and is incredibly advanced by many metrics the best AIP fleet in the world. In potentially shallow water around the islands they serve as a potent barrier to Chinese landings or littoral operations. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and replying, it’s great to share ideas and discuss common interests and ideas.
Japan do have a great ship building industrial base with significant output in terms of tonnage. They also are very competitive on affordability. Having Japan involved in Aukus submarine manufacturing, would go a long way to helping the partner nations lower the cost per unit against the Chinese. The playing field is currently slope in their favour at this point on build capacity with immense submarine production facilities being built in recent years to push for a large SSN force.
Japan builds and decommissions a diesel boat every year. The pace is designed to sustain its industrial base. There are probably many customers who want to buy surplus short-lived boats from Japan.
This could be a good way for nations like Australia to replace ageing SSK’s as a stop gap until the USN virgins start to arrive and work up to operational capability with the Australia navy. Although it would make for a more complicated logistical and training environment in the short term for Australia. It could be great to multinational relation building and training on those grounds
hyperbole much there guy? “the most costly and risky action ever taken by any Australian government”. Has he not seen the "green" energy power issues that have swept through the country the last few years? He should have stuck to singing.
Good Morning CDR Salamander, care to share what happened on Sunday, 7 June 2026 at five o’clock pm EST!
At least three folks waited one hour, forty-five minutes (1.75 hours) for you and Mark to open live Midrats, which never happened. No explanation given!
Kindly allow me to remind you, “No buddy left behind!” That term applies across all branches, including Merchant Marines!
I take this very seriously! Australia is below the equator! D.C. Metro Area is where I’m located.
I’m sure, Bear and J. B. would like to learn, are you and Mark “safe”?
Apparently so because of your posts Monday and Tuesday, this week.
Much obliged if you care to share!
Meanwhile, I’ll share my opinion. Finland is spreading “Disinformation” about the Russian Federation’s military strength.
My son has resumed his USAF Squadron Commander duties in Germany. This means, he potentially flies missions into three (3) areas of “Conflict”.
On a personal note, Military Central Command Walter Reed has postponed my Neurosurgical Spinal Fusion. LCDR Brian Curry told me on 3 June 2026, I would be able to perform ship or submarine duties post surgery! That was fabulous news!
Admiral Grace Hopper reminded me in 1983, I serve at the pleasure of POTUS. I can be ordered back into Naval Uniform!
I’m studying Law and Diplomacy.
Kindly give your substack members an explanation for the cancelled MidRats, 7 June 2026. Speaking for those who care, we are glad you are “Safe”. Very respectfully, Nurse Jane
We had a software issue that prevented the show from going live. We put out an announcement on X and in comments. Sorry for anyone who missed it. The software issue has been corrected, so no one should see it again…we hope.
Peter Garrett is a classic example of why you never allow the environmentalists and peaceniks to dictate defense strategy or for that matter national policy.
CDR, u didn’t address the current rife btwn Trump n the prime minister of the UK…I’m thinking it may be have a small impact on the indo pacific pact. Thoughts?
IRT the various green/far left organizations? It was amusing thirty years ago to read how many of those organizations shut down with a final news release bemoaning a sudden drop off of the contributions needed to run. Of course the fall of the Soviet Union must have been just an unusual coincidence.
Oddly enough, a similar pattern occurred when USAID was downgraded...er...defunded...er...disbanded. I'm sure it was a coincidence. Positive. Certain. Right?
What exactly does the UK bring to the table. They can't even deploy a boat from home much less Australia. Plus they are deindustalizing and going Islamic
This applies doubly to Canada. I see virtually zero reason to involve a nation wholly lacking in Army/Navy capability. Sentimentality is not a reason. They are not a serious defense power and should be treated that way.
If we did manage to get New Zealand on-side, I would be surprised and not sure if I would be pleased--it's a beautiful country and I hear the people are nice, but politically they've been the least reliable and most annoying member of the five eyes for decades, and their leftists make the Australian ones look like Marco Rubio.
Still, keeping up the Pacific pivot is good, and if we can use this as a blueprint and foundation for increasing cooperation I'm for it. Containing China until it comes apart due to bad demographics is much better than fighting a shooting war.
Also, NZ is the home of the emu, a vicious bioweapom that needs eradicated. (I'm not entirely joking.)
Emus are Australian, not New Zealanders.
Though you're not wrong about what they are.
Emus are...um...tough birds. It took all out war to bring them under control:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emu_War
The Australian Army lost that war.
Well the first time. The second was slightly better than a draw.
Demographics apply to all countries, not just China. Suggest folks consider carefully (query your favorite AI) the demographic futures and timeframes facing Japan, UK, Canada, New Zealand, and the other members of what used to be called the "free world."
I have, actually, and they're all better off than China is.
And, frankly, outside of East Asia, the "demographic problems" are fixable if the governments actually return to the rule of law rather than continue to play identity politics.
Your 'if' is very much smaller than it should be...
Demographics were part of my portfolio. Just about every nation on the planet (including sub-Saharan Africa) has imploding demographics. Even the "go forth and multiply to displace the unbelievers" religion of peace has a relatively big "crash" birth rate wise. That was 15 years ago. Also, always try to get under the hood of demographic data. You may find you are looking at numbers from...15 years prior.
Yeah, I remember back when "Inferno" came out I did some poking around and found they were predicting zero population growth by 2100. Last I checked they were saying ZPG would hit in 2090.
Big difference between current trend and the momentum of population growth even as birth rates slow and turn negative. For those only vaguely familiar with demographics and the population magnitudes and timescales involved, I suggest Googling "demographic transition" to learn about the four phases of the model. Also, don't forget to query your favorite AI(s) for their "views" on demographics as applied to specific countries and regions.
Basically politicians and economists just begun to realize - era of "cheap manpower" is over, humans are valuable national resource that must be carefully preserved, not dismissed.
Sadly, the level of penetration of both NZ and AUS by the CCP is quite disturbing. They may actually rival Canada as a "classified information pipeline" to China. Depressing, but true.
whew. eyes need a break here. I'll be back!
"when you see the Southern Cross for the first time, you understand now why you came this way...."
Sal, you've finally written about a topic I don't know enough about to comment intelligently, so I'll just sit back and listen.
I suspect the USN will have zero problems with getting Sailors to do a tour there at the maintenance facility. It is also a rare opportunity for USN nukes to get a good deal. It might turn into a good problem for our Navy, in that I’m guessing many, not all, but many will try to get locked into a sea/shore rotation over there. Making it hard for others to get back or there. They should name a sub or better yet the new tender the USN will need USS San Pablo.
The primary policy rule to apply in everything and especially defense: We can’t want it more than they do.
Suggestion: allow the Japanese to buy 3 Virginia class subs (new build), and license them to build 6 more in their own yards. When those are built, allow them to build additional subs for the Australians and for us.
We win with expanded capacity, the Japanese win with a great sub, and all of us win with more boats gliding under the water.
or bundle them into Aukus-SSN?
I'm not sure Japan actually want SSN, or consider them efficient for their situation. Japan is much close to China than Australia. They are perfectly within the range of AIP boats - whom are much cheaper, smaller, more numerous and almost completely silent. Large SSN's would likely be a disadvantage for Japan; their range is not exactly very important, if you have your opponent just several thousand miles away.
Dilandu, good to see you. One could make a similar argument for Australia -- they aren't THAT far away from China. But the advantage of an SSN for them also applies to Japan -- not just range, but endurance. An SSN can stay at sea and on station a long time. A Virginia-class boat also can provide more punch than a SS(AIP).
Not saying there isn't a place for an AIP boat, but the ability to stain the Chinese shorts would give the nod to the Virginia and follow-on AUKUS SSNs. Just a thought.
Glad to see you, too!
Well, for Australia the situation is much close to "all-or-nothing" scenario, than for Japan. Australia can't hope to stand against China alone; the choices for Australia are either to fight a coalition war (for which SSN are more useful), or avoid confrontation with China at all (for which SSN are more a problem, than an advantage). For Japan, situation is more nuanced, since they are much closer to the near-peer opponent, and thus have much broader spectrum of possible choices.
Hello Dilandu, I meant to communicate the idea that Japan could aid Aukus nations with submarine construction assistance even if they don’t see the strategic or tactical need for operating SSN’s for their own fleet. I agree with you that the SSK’s fleet they operate is well place due to range and is incredibly advanced by many metrics the best AIP fleet in the world. In potentially shallow water around the islands they serve as a potent barrier to Chinese landings or littoral operations. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and replying, it’s great to share ideas and discuss common interests and ideas.
Japan do have a great ship building industrial base with significant output in terms of tonnage. They also are very competitive on affordability. Having Japan involved in Aukus submarine manufacturing, would go a long way to helping the partner nations lower the cost per unit against the Chinese. The playing field is currently slope in their favour at this point on build capacity with immense submarine production facilities being built in recent years to push for a large SSN force.
Japan builds and decommissions a diesel boat every year. The pace is designed to sustain its industrial base. There are probably many customers who want to buy surplus short-lived boats from Japan.
This could be a good way for nations like Australia to replace ageing SSK’s as a stop gap until the USN virgins start to arrive and work up to operational capability with the Australia navy. Although it would make for a more complicated logistical and training environment in the short term for Australia. It could be great to multinational relation building and training on those grounds
hyperbole much there guy? “the most costly and risky action ever taken by any Australian government”. Has he not seen the "green" energy power issues that have swept through the country the last few years? He should have stuck to singing.
Good Morning CDR Salamander, care to share what happened on Sunday, 7 June 2026 at five o’clock pm EST!
At least three folks waited one hour, forty-five minutes (1.75 hours) for you and Mark to open live Midrats, which never happened. No explanation given!
Kindly allow me to remind you, “No buddy left behind!” That term applies across all branches, including Merchant Marines!
I take this very seriously! Australia is below the equator! D.C. Metro Area is where I’m located.
I’m sure, Bear and J. B. would like to learn, are you and Mark “safe”?
Apparently so because of your posts Monday and Tuesday, this week.
Much obliged if you care to share!
Meanwhile, I’ll share my opinion. Finland is spreading “Disinformation” about the Russian Federation’s military strength.
My son has resumed his USAF Squadron Commander duties in Germany. This means, he potentially flies missions into three (3) areas of “Conflict”.
On a personal note, Military Central Command Walter Reed has postponed my Neurosurgical Spinal Fusion. LCDR Brian Curry told me on 3 June 2026, I would be able to perform ship or submarine duties post surgery! That was fabulous news!
Admiral Grace Hopper reminded me in 1983, I serve at the pleasure of POTUS. I can be ordered back into Naval Uniform!
I’m studying Law and Diplomacy.
Kindly give your substack members an explanation for the cancelled MidRats, 7 June 2026. Speaking for those who care, we are glad you are “Safe”. Very respectfully, Nurse Jane
We had a software issue that prevented the show from going live. We put out an announcement on X and in comments. Sorry for anyone who missed it. The software issue has been corrected, so no one should see it again…we hope.
Peter Garrett is a classic example of why you never allow the environmentalists and peaceniks to dictate defense strategy or for that matter national policy.
CDR I hope you are right, but I have lots of misgivings about our allies seeing how they have betrayed us during the ongoing conflict with Iran.
Starmer is a pathetic weakling who is allowing his country to be transformed into a third world slum.
Italy is not part of this deal but Meloni’s brutal betrayal should give us cause for concern. Then there is Spain.
Our allies seeing seem to succumbing to jihadists and communists.
CDR, u didn’t address the current rife btwn Trump n the prime minister of the UK…I’m thinking it may be have a small impact on the indo pacific pact. Thoughts?
I did address it. See my quote. Don’t chase the laser pointer, Dave.
O/T but germain to previous porch conversations about SAR.
https://sof.news/drones/naval-drone-rescue/
If memory serves, this has never been brought up as a potential SAR resource.
https://sof.news/drones/naval-drone-rescue/
IRT the various green/far left organizations? It was amusing thirty years ago to read how many of those organizations shut down with a final news release bemoaning a sudden drop off of the contributions needed to run. Of course the fall of the Soviet Union must have been just an unusual coincidence.
Oddly enough, a similar pattern occurred when USAID was downgraded...er...defunded...er...disbanded. I'm sure it was a coincidence. Positive. Certain. Right?
Why did America decommission its OTH systems. Sigh
Wonder who will drive these boats when AUS succumbs to the Islamist invasion.
What exactly does the UK bring to the table. They can't even deploy a boat from home much less Australia. Plus they are deindustalizing and going Islamic
This applies doubly to Canada. I see virtually zero reason to involve a nation wholly lacking in Army/Navy capability. Sentimentality is not a reason. They are not a serious defense power and should be treated that way.
peter garrett. 🙄