By the numbers: the Ukrainian Russian Buildup
hurry up and watch
With the growing tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border (and Belorussian while we are at it) when Midrats regular Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg writes something, you need to pay attention.
He recently co-authored an article with Michael Kofman at the Washington Post titled, "Here’s what we know about Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine."
What is the nature of Russia’s military buildup? And how long can Russia keep its forces in these forward positions? Our research on Russia’s military capabilities offers some clues.
This is a solid snapshot and quick read of what the Ukrainians are facing.
Russian forces near Ukraine total at most 60 battalion tactical groups (BTGs), along with support elements. BTGs are task-organized combined-arms formations, each averaging 800 personnel in size. This translates into roughly 48,000 troops. Adding the supporting units, the total number of Russian troops is likely to be 85,000 — with more on the way. Aside from these regular Russian troops, there are about 15,000 separatist forces, or Russian-led formations in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Media outlets are reporting around 100,000 troops in total, but estimates vary widely.
This means approximately 35 percent of Russia’s total available BTG formations (60 out of 168) are stationed near the Ukrainian border, ...
As the authors mention at the end of the article, this many forces cannot remain there indefinitely. At some point, due to readiness, morale, and even conscription service issues - some units will have to go home. That is what we should look for.
If we are lucky, as spring arrives we will see a plateau of force levels, and then a decrease.
Watch.
Not long ago, the US 173rd ABB (formerly ABR), out of Vicenza, Italy, built the world's finest Joint Training/Readiness Center in Ukraine. How would you feel if CCP built the world's finest Joint Training/Readiness Center in, say, Chihuahua, Mexico? How did POTUS Kennedy feel when Khrushchev moved Soviet nukes 90 miles off the coast of Florida? What have Iranian Ayatollahs moved into Venezuela?
Russia's perpetual headache is border security. Her age-old strategy in that regard is to put buffers between herself and aggressors from West and South. The West German tribes (Franks, Germans, Scandinavians) have been far more aggressive towards the the East German tribes (Slavs) than ever the reverse has occurred.
This is on the minds of Putin and Lavrov: https://theological-geography.net/wp-admin/upload.php?item=31015
I believe that Putin regards conquering Ukraine by land war as a necessary first step in achieving reestablishment of the Russian empire in his lifetime.
Also necessary to spin up his military with his eye to the China threat.
The only European countries taking affirmative physical steps to readiness are the Baltic States, Poland, and Finland. Germany and the rest are talking while their economies tank on energy prices and woke agendas. The United States... is not a factor politically or militarily.
The ground is mostly frozen now. Waning moon in another week.
Look for hard cyber against Ukraine power and comms. I don't know the laws of the sea but would look for a notice to Mariners declaring the Black Sea Russian waters. I think the shooting will start with decapitation strikes, either by air or prepositioned teams. Probably both.
Hitler remilitarized the Sudetenland with bicycle troops and staff cars, backed up by a newsreel showing tanks parked on a road somewhere.
The French had three million men under arms, with six (?) Divisions in march order on the German frontier that day.
The Russians are coming.