Cables, Pipelines, and Consequences

...and happy Boxing Day...

While we were all enjoying our holiday season from Festivus to Kwanzaa, there are real things happening in the maritime world that should be above everyone’s background noise going into the New Year: the seabed.

Remember Yi Peng 3?

The Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 has raised its anchor and left the Kattegat after a month long standoff, according to vessel tracking data.

The ship had been under investigation over allegations that it lowered and dragging its anchor across data cables connecting Sweden and Finland with Lithuania and Germany.

The 75,100-dwt Yi Peng 3 (built 2001), which is listed under the management of China’s Ningbo Yipeng Shipping, was underway from Ust-Luga in Russia to Pakistan or the west coast of India with a cargo of pig iron, the tracking data shows.

The move comes after the ship was reported to have left the Russian port on about 15 November, two days before the the cables were broken.

As TradeWinds has reported, it subsequently anchored in the Kattegat in international waters between Sweden and Denmark where neither country has any authority over the vessel.

…

On Thursday Swedish, Danish, Finnish, German and Chinese officials had boarded the vessels to gather evidence.

At the time the Danish Foreign minister Lars Rokke Rasmussen had said that the vessel was able to sail towards its destination on completion of the inspection.

…and the results of the inspection are…we don’t know.

Either she was involved, and was let go for…reasons, or she was not involved, in which case we’ve proven again that even in what is a smallish NATO lake, we have exceptionally poor maritime domain awareness of our Under Sea Lines of Communication (USLOC).

Fourteen-months after the last incident, there are issues again with the USLOC between Finland and Estonia.

A vital undersea cable in the Baltic Sea appeared to suffer damage on Christmas Day, triggering fresh fears of sabotage.

The latest incident cut the electricity connection on Estlink 2 between EU and NATO states Finland and Estonia on December 25.

Finnish transmission system operator Fingrid representative, Arto Pahkin, said intentional malicious action has not been ruled out.

It appears that the NATO nations have a chance to hold someone accountable. The Finns seem to have the ship in question.

Prime Minister Petteri Orpo (Saml) commented on the cable break in the Gulf of Finland at a press conference on Thursday afternoon.

Orpo began by thanking the Finnish authorities for excellent work.

- We have reacted quickly and decisively, which is very important. It is very good that the vessel is now in Finnish waters and under the control of the authorities. With that, Finland sends a message that we want and can remedy situations like this, says Orpo.

According to Orpo, the Russian shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea is a threat from both a security and environmental perspective. He emphasizes how important international cooperation is in situations like this.

- We cooperate very closely with our neighboring countries. I have been in contact with Estonia, Sweden, Denmark and Poland, as well as the management of the European Commission. The President of the Republic ( Alexander Stubb ) has in turn been in contact with NATO. We are not alone with this problem, says Orpo.

If you need a brief on the Russian “shadow fleet”, this bit by FT is a good start.

This AM, the European Commission came out with a strong statement.

Yesterday’s incident involving undersea cables in the Baltic Sea is the latest in a series of suspected attacks on critical infrastructure. We commend the Finnish authorities for their swift action in boarding the suspected vessel. We are working with the Finnish authorities on the ongoing investigation. We stand in full solidarity with Finland, Estonia, and Germany.

We strongly condemn any deliberate destruction of Europe’s critical infrastructure. The suspected vessel is part of Russia’s shadow fleet, which threatens security and the environment, while funding Russia’s war budget. We will propose further measures, including sanctions, to target this fleet.

In response to these incidents, we are strengthening efforts to protect undersea cables, including enhanced information exchange, new detection technologies, as well as in undersea repair capabilities, and international cooperation. We remain committed to ensuring the resilience and security of our critical infrastructure.

At present, there is no risk to the security of electricity supply in the region.

These incidents are all connected. Our friend Brent Sadler put it well:

This is all about risk and reward, and it is helpful to put your head in the Russian space for a bit.

They are currently engaged in their most bloody military operation since WWII. Western Europe and North America (put yourself on notice, USA and CAN) have been underwriting the killing of Russians, and now North Koreans, for over three years.

The Russians have no desire to go to war with NATO too, right now, but if they were looking at a low risk, high reward activities on the edge of war that is at least something, then this fits the bill. They will continue to do this until the risk/reward ratio goes negative. They have yet to meet resistance.

It’s amazing that the Russians took this long. These actions may not for now significantly impact the economies of those sending weapons to kill Russians, but they do humiliate the West by conducting sabotage without consequence…just impotent, sternly worded letters and toothless inspections.

My bet is that this will increase until it meets resistance and cost.