China and East Timor

...we all see where this is heading, correct?

East Timor.

Over four centuries of neglectful Portuguese rule, a spat of 1970s violence, a few decades of Indonesian rule, and then independence shortly after the turn of the century. Is that all you really need to know about this small, poor, and generally forgotten part of an insignificant island?

Is it insignificant? The People’s Republic of China (PRC) doesn’t think so.

Follow the money.

As always, let’s head to the chart room.

There she is in the center. That red circle is the 360 nautical mile circle that meets where the USMC base is at Darwin, Australia.

East Timor has a population of 1.3 million. Roughly the population of San Diego, CA or Estonia. In size, her part of the island not owned by Indonesia is roughly the same number of square miles as Connecticut. Her GDP is roughly that of Samoa.

It isn’t its size or resources that are driving the below. It sure isn’t goodwill.

An economic powerhouse? No. Strategic geography powerhouse? Unquestionably. It isn’t a Gibraltar, Singapore, or a Malta in that regard…but perhaps one echelon below that.

Like the smaller nations in the Southwest Pacific we’ve covered before, it is long past time for the West and its friends to start paying attention.

Again, the PRC has stolen a march on her opponents.

Via The Telegraph UK on Sunday (you can read the whole thing on Press Reader here)

Its strategic position in the contested Indo-Pacific and nearby shipping lanes make the country ripe for Chinese influence.

“We do not view China as a threat, least of all as an enemy,” José Ramos-Horta, East Timor’s president, said, insisting his country remains neutral in the battle for control of the Pacific.

Well, that may be his view. By their actions, the PRC believes differently. So do I.

East Timor sits crucially near the Second Island Chain, a series of islands stretching from Japan through Guam—a US territory with a key military base—to Indonesia’s eastern islands. East Timor is also situated near the Ombai-Wetar Strait, a deep-water passage that’s critical for movement between the Indian and Pacific oceans.

You cannot wish away geography and what, in the event of a Great Pacific War that bleeds over into the Indian Ocean, will make or break sea control or denial.

China has attempted to increase its military presence on the island, proposing the construction of a radar facility in 2007, which it claimed would only be used to detect illegal fishing.

Oh, that is rich. Yes, the PRC…well-known stalwart on the international stage opposing illegal fishing.

East Timor relies mostly on security agreements with its neighbors: Australia and Indonesia. While open to participating in joint military drills with China, Mr Ramos-Horta said there was only so much East Timor could offer a country such as China when it comes to defense.

Dude, it is your geography they want, not anything else.

Chinese aid has funded East Timor’s presidential palace, foreign ministry and military headquarters, and Chinese state-owned companies build and currently control the national power.

Do you need more? No. You don’t.

Here is the real long game where you have to give a nod of respect to the PRC.

Despite being one of the poorest countries in the region by GDP per capita, it earns close to half a billion dollars in petroleum revenue annually, which funds nearly 90 percent of the state budget.

However, its main oil fields are predicted to be fully depleted within the next decade, meaning the country could be left bankrupt.

We can all see the game four moves ahead, yes?

Australia needs to step in and step up. No one else can or should lead here in a way that would benefit the interests of the West.

The game is afoot all over the Indo-Pacific.

Heck, also in the news on the other side of Australia is Manus Island. Nice update via Brent Sadler on an effort there I last wrote about almost four years ago.

h/t Paul