CDR Sal, great job of presenting the problem from a different perspective that genuinely makes a difference in how it is perceived. VERY familiar with the intimate details of this, and your map flip I'd offer makes this look a lot more like Kursk on the Eastern Front than our island-hopping campaign in WWII.
Our best hope is to not fight. We will have to resort to an "unacceptable cost" strategy to maintain the status quo unless the SAP / STO wizards can literally pull a rabbit out of the hat for a "win". Or we go nuclear, and all of the potentially world ending uncertainty breaking that seal implies.
In 1984 went diving the Japanese wrecks off Palau (Republic of Koror) for a week, then 3 weeks at Truk Lagoon. Neither place had significant industry other than the tourist industry for diving.
There was a USAF Red Horse unit on Truk working sun up to noon, they using a USAF provided ski boat to dive the wrecks. (The big red, white and blue USAF painted across the side of the boat was a hint). I said to my dive buddy then that the US should expand the international airport at Truk and put some supply depots underground in shelters there.
Sadly none of our leadership seems to be able to read history, or understand the blood, sweat and tears we spent fighting our way across the Pacific on these islands, as Commander Sal so eloquently states in this article. Otherwise, we would have started building up dispersed supply depots, runways, and piers as well as stockpiling the missiles necessary to fight a battle like the one shaping up for Taiwan.
I always wonder about someone who hides behind the anonymity of a false name and jumps into a conversation to call names, make snarky comments and generally just tries to create hate and discontent. Are you a Chinese troll, or perhaps just sitting in the basement where you live, looking for people to annoy?
Quite obviously two people agree with you, they must have voted for you to be the King of all young people everywhere, since you claim to speak for them.
I don't speak for anyone but myself. I do have many friends who post here and several who worked for me. I enjoy reading their thoughts. I think CDR Sal writes this blog because he cares deeply for this nation and honors the oath he took. I do as well.
OBTW, I pray we do not change from the Cold War we've been in for years into a hot war with China. I have 3 close family members in uniform and all will be in harms way then. I don't think we should engage in any war that we don't have a plan to win.
Quite notable that the only two arguments you can muster is:
1: A rather boomer brained. “Bu-but your profile name!” And
2: “You… Don’t speak for ALL young people! Riiight?”
As for the former that’s just silly. I’m from a generation where “Hitlerclapscheeks68” is just as meaningful as “Jim Coulson”.
As for the latter, it’s just silly rhetorical playing dumb.
No I’m not “The King of Young People” but I know how people my age (30ies) and younger think.
MOREOVER: Polling shows that I’m right on the mark here: Gen Z and Millennials are far less likely than boomers to see China as a threat, and get this: A survey of 1000 young voters from 2025, shows that only 19,7% would support American military intervention EVEN in the case of a full on Chinese invasion of Taiwan. (And no, support among those in their 30ies isn’t much higher.)
TLDR: What if DC declare a war and only boomers show up to fight? That’s the situation we’re dealing with here. That’s also progress imho.
Perhaps you've never heard that one can disagree without being disagreeable. From your first insult, it was pretty apparent that you wanted a diatribe, not a dialogue, and your three posts here prove that point. So there was no reason to write a column as long as CDR Sal's
So I will wish you a Merry Christmas, or Happy Holidays if the first also offends you. Then I'll mute the conversation. We Boomers need our naptimes, after all.
I just pointed out that if boomers want a war with China, they’ll have to go die themselves, because young people are too smart to go to war for hegemony and some little island that’s Chinese anyways.
And if I’m being disagreeable, it’s probably I kinda take it personally when your generation is quick to support wars that they have ZERO stakes in and want younger generations to fight for them because they think the colD war never ended.
And a merry Christmas and happy new years to you as well. Christ is (soon to be) born.
Google "semiconductor manufacturing" on the device that's using assets most likely not built in the Americas.
It's not just dollars at stake, it's peoples and cultures that have been destroyed by China's actions over the past 6 decades. It's tens of millions starved to death through collectivization.
Clearly no one wants to fight a war, nor is advocating for one. Being prepared for a fight, though, will save millions of those same Gen Z/Millenials/pick a group that same to find the concept of their comfort disrupted a horrifying prospect, as they reach for more Cheetos.
Would like to see every SSBN that is retired made into SSGN's and keep 2 on station off China at all times. If there is a surprise attack they could hit China with several hundred Tomahawks (assuming we've ramped up production there) right away.
The really SAD thing is wars are won with logistics and we know that. It has been proven time and again. However, we find that our leadership has neither increased our supplies of the tools we need to fight, or the means to deliver them (oilers and logistics ships aren't as sexy as wasting billions on failed combatants) or even the airbases, piers and supply depots necessary for a prolonged fight.
Instead, we throw all our money at Guam and "hope" that it can survive a surprise attack.
I suggest you go to any Navy base during the holidays. You will see submarines, carriers and ships all lined up in neat rows, inviting another Pearl Harbor at any time. We don't even keep a DDG or two off the coast to give AAW protection against SLCM's or drone attacks. Instead we trust that another enemy would never attack us while we were on standdown.
When I was Ops Boss on the Big E (CVN-65) I used to point out stuff like this to Airlant Ops and was told it was none of my business. Of course the same guys told me the same thing when ordered to let a CHICOM Flag officer and his staff video tape our CIC during a tour. Shouldn't even have let them on base, IMHO.
In the 60s, we Radarmen stood a CIC watch inport in Norfolk. No radar, just one guy 24/7 monitoring a UHF radio circuit waiting for an announcement of Plan Zulu. That was a surprise attack. What followed was about 10-15 minutes of bogeys we had to track on the DRT (yeah, why?). That plotted track had to be turned in to "higher authority" to grade our alertness. Hokey, I thought. At 0200, there were no GMG's, FTG's, Officers, etc. readily available to foil an air attack. But, tiny step that it was, at least someone was making a token effort to foil another December 7th. RD2, 19-20 years old...what did I know? We Radarmen knew that if we missed the Plan Zulu alert an angry CDO and CO would be the least of our problems. "Eternal vigilance is the price of victory" <---A staple blurb in every Captain's Night Orders.
Dale, We had no "Plan Zulu" in Norfolk when I was Ops boss. (I was CICO for a very short period to get us out of the yards, but was pretty much a direct input Ops O, in the billet for 21 months on what was supposed to be 12 in the hot seat)
When I talked to Airlant Ops, there were 5 carriers and two big deck amphibs plus about half a dozen subs tied up for Christmas all in nice rows. Nobody seemed to care.
The very least we could do now is have a Patriot battalion on base manned 24x7x365.
The issue with the SSGNs is they were converted to use the life remaining on the hulls while the SWS was removed due to treaty obligations. The best time to convert any more SSBNs to SSGNs has passed, with LOUISIANA (SSBN-743) having completed hers in 2023 following an extension of what was to be a two year process. Unless the schedule DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (SSBN-826) can be pulled forward, that is unlikely.
IMHO, the only manned plane that SHOULD be forward-deployed is runaway-free F-35B. Seriously, it seems USA underestimate the advantages of STOVL machine greatly. It's a stealth fighter that does not need long runaways, for Kitten Holy sake! It could operate even if runaways are constantly damaged by missile barrages - which neither F-15EX nor F/A-18E/F could do.
I pulled up the view in Google Earth Pro. Doing so also drove further into my brain why PRC is taking over all of those islets in our allies' backyards - If you truly control the Philippines and Taiwan, the mouth of the funnel is closed.
I do not see Taiwan in active combat with China unless it is forced into it. China's military has free rein in all areas around Taiwan. China does have some of the Spratly Islands (and man-made islands). The Spratlys are only ~800 miles from Indonesia, only 250 miles to Malaysia. China might not have 100% control of the Sea Lanes, but it has significant influence in that area and could have 100% control from the Spratly Islands down to Brunei. I think.
I don't know how much of a military presence we have in the Philippines. We may have enough, working with the Philippine military (and possibly the Vietnamese), to stop China from controlling adjacent sea lanes.
Sorry I didn’t make myself clear. I wasn’t saying that Taiwan would attack PRC. I was trying to say that if/when PRC takes Taiwan, that part of the puzzle is solved.
Likely my misinterpretation. I agree that if China absorbs Taiwan, that part of the puzzle is solved. I do not believe we can stop China from taking over Taiwan. Our Navy has allowed itself to atrophy into a 2nd class Navy. We cannot design, build, or maintain warships. Our logistics support is challenged by our Navy going to Hawaii, let alone to points West, especially in contested waters. In a recent Cavasships podcast with Secretary Modly and Admiral (ret) Goddard, they mentioned the status of all Navy warship projects. My numbers are off, but it was something like of 60 projects, 53 were over budget and behind schedule. The failures of our Navy are widespread.
My Ph.D dissertation was on DoD cost overruns (big fat target set), and how to fix the problem. Among other problems, DoD acquisitions suffer from the same problems EVERY public project has, starting with intentional over-promising on cost and schedule (which leads to greater costs). In my not-so-humble opinion, Navy problems start with two things - members of Congress in shipyard districts promising jobs, and an unbelievable lack of appreciation for technical risks. With those as the problem's base layer, every cost and schedule problem with the Constellation class can be explained.
My Ph.D dissertation was on DoD cost overruns (big fat target set), and how to fix the problem. Among other problems, DoD acquisitions suffer from the same problems EVERY public project has, starting with intentional over-promising on cost and schedule (which leads to greater costs). In my not-so-humble opinion, Navy problems start with two things - members of Congress in shipyard districts promising jobs, and an unbelievable lack of appreciation for technical risks. With those as the problem's base layer, every cost and schedule problem with the Constellation class can be explained.
This is where we need a continuous allied force projection. We need destroyers and frigates from SK, Japan, and Australia in DESRONs permanently based in and patrolling the SCS...and building. We leaven them with our destroyers rolling in and out until we can build more to station in the area with them. Also AIPs to patrol continuously, coordinated with our nuke boats and those we build for AUS. This is for two reasons: one, to have assets in the area just in case (and let the PRC know it to change their calculations) and, two, to show these Islands that there is more to being friends with OUR side than just getting money...we are there, we are involved, and if you ally with the PRC we have the resources to squash whatever they built for you if the PRC attacks us.
In the final analysis, we are going to have to do to the Chinese what they plan to do to us. We need long range air assets that have the legs to be be launched beyond interdiction range and send a lot of JASSM-ERs and LRASM-ERs down their throats....a lot more missiles than we have now. The PRC plans to overwhelm all these areas out to Guam with their barrage of missiles - so we are multiplying their targets and increasing their uncertainty. After that first frenetic, kinetic strike they think they will settle in to take Taiwan before we recover. But if they have to worry about a long range response...then what? They pretty much shot their wad on the first strike...and it may hurt us...but we need them to understand it won't kill us and that there will be a response.
Unfortunately, our national security strategy is fragmented with ADHD type of activities.
The neoliberal/neocon desire to cripple Russia is one of those distractions. Imagine if we'd just let Ukraine remain as the kleptocratic backwater it was meant to be: a toothless buffer state that didn't threaten Europe or Russia.
Imagine if we hadn't burned up so much blood and resources, and the good will of the American people, meddling around in the middle east for 20+ years.
We had a chance to contain China, and we blew it on sidequests, as the kids say. Maybe there's still a chance, but I'm not sure that we have a federal apparatus any longer that's capable of engaging in that kind of long-term strategic action plan.
Russia needs to be crippled. Russia chose to open the war and become a threat again. Putin's desire for a revived Russian empire made it that way. Ukraine is just step one.
Ukraine’s leadership chose to get dogwalked by US and British neoliberals, despite very clear and repeated warnings that they were treading a dangerous and consequential path.
I feel bad for the people of Ukraine, but they got the leadership the people of Crimea and the Donbas didn’t vote for.
There’s a complicated series of events that got us to this current situation, and the Ukrainian leadership are not innocent Davids fighting Goliath.
The reason they had a good army in 2022 was because NATO trained and equipped them with the goal to take back the
Donbas and Crimea through violent force of action. Russia attacked first, but war was coming to the Donbas one way or another.
War was coming simply because Putin wanted it. He wants all of Ukraine. His war aims can not be met without taking the whole country and it takes little intelligence to realize it. Anyone claiming that Putin does not want all of Ukraine is simply a retard or a liar. Take you pick.
"Ukraine’s leadership chose to get dogwalked by US and British neoliberals, despite very clear and repeated warnings that they were treading a dangerous and consequential path."
That is utter BS. Ukraine is fighting an existential war adn knows all to well what the stakes are. They realize that the surrender documents presented and insisted on by Putin, adn Putin's asset, Trump, will lead to the end of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. Brutally, you're being silly.
And, so what if they were going to take back the Crime and occupied Donbas. It is their country and they have every right to do so. The west had every right to train and equip them as well. Putin has no right to be there and the "reasons" he gave for the invasion are nothing but a pack of lies.
The people of the Donbas and Crimea have no right to self-determination, I suppose. The guy they voted for got overthrown, the election that brought in Zelensky had no participation from the Donbas or Crimea.
Ukraine got played by US neoliberals and neocons, who supported the new democracy that overthrew the previous democracy. That’s their existential problem. They bought the ticket and now they don’t like the ride.
We bombed the hell out of the Serbians when they tried to retake Kosovo by force after that area declared itself separate from Serbia.
It appears you want to believe the jingoistic explanations of this conflict, so I will leave you to that.
Your naïveté is glaring. Yanukovych walked away. Because of the killings on the Maidan plaza, a warrant was cut for his arrest. Rather than be a man and standing trial, he ran for asylum to his puppet master, Sad Vlad Putin, and abaondoned his office. He abandoned his office. He was not ousted.
I do not hold with any sort of jingoistic explanations, and I do not buy the lies about Ukraine being played by anyone.
By the bye, Most of the Donbas took part in the election of 2019. It is true that Crimea did not participation as they were under an illegal occupation by Putin's thugs. That does not change the right of Crimea and Donbas to self determination. That, however, posits they were allowed self determination. In the case of Crimea, that was not the case. Putin invaded Crimea and Ukrainians were pushed out of Crimea, and Putin imported thousands of colonists and allowed the occupying army to vote. The "vote" in the Donbas was just as corrupt.
Well, with increased production we are expecting 3,600 JASSMs on hand in 2026 (2025 budget alone requested 450 JASSMs, with 389 planned for the 2026 request, alongside significant multi-year contracts). Lockheed Martin is increasing its output, aiming to produce over 1,000 JASSMs (including LRASM) annually, with production lines ramping up for various variants (total doesn't include, for instance, next-gen variants like the 1,000-mile range AGM-158D). We don't know exact numbers on the LRASM and LRASM-ER for anti-ship, but the Pentagon awarded huge contracts in 2024/2025 for hundreds of LRASM missiles.
In the 2024 DOD China Military Power Report, they cite around 550 ICBM launchers (with 400 missiles) and approximately 250 IRBM launchers (with 500 DF-26 missiles), while total missiles exceeding 3,000. They are also building inventory...but rough parity with these longer range stand off systems. There is also the potential for the EOBA to actually work and all our shorter range systems can do work from inside the AOC.
But if we learned anything from Ukraine and the wars in the sandbox and actions off Yemen...we're going to expend an awful lot of missiles real quick - hopefully to effect so that follow on strikes aren't necessary. You don't want to go Winchester, so we need lots more of all types in the inventory (rearming logistical issues aside)
A second map, oriented from the EAST (Indian ocean approaches to Malacca, Singapore, Sunda, et. al. ) would be a fine additional look. Severe restriction of oil via that quarter will limit China's ability to wage a lengthy war of attrition; which the next Indo-Pacific conflict is shaping up to be after the first salvos of missiles and ship losses.
Restricting the strait is only part of the oil. There's still the pipelines from Russia. Other vulnerabilities will need to be found and exploited. Like the PLAN AO.
Yep, this is why China pivoted hard to Russia and Russia pivoted hard to China. Russia provides raw materials, oil, and gas for Chinese industry that can't be interdicted by the U.S. or NATO navies in the Indian or Pacific oceans.
And now China has far more data on the performance of sea-borne drones, ADA, NATO ground vehicles and guided missile assets thanks to the Ukraine war.
One of the big problems is that it's very likely that China can implement new systems and doctrinal revisions based on this new information much faster than the U.S. military and sclerotic DoD bureaucracy can.
I don't have the facts at my fingertips, but read an article awhile back that said China was building new strategic petroleum storage sites and had filled all current ones to capacity.
Meanwhile we're still diddling around trying to figure things out. Last I heard we were still below half full on our own reserves and haven't built new storage in decades.
No plans for an LMSR replacement yet. Once I see that I'll think all this is actually serious. Even if they decide to stay in "our own Hemisphere" There needs to be some new roll on roll off with some i cranes to haul big thigs like the ligherage.
Not only very likely, but almost certainly. A few companies, Anduril and Palantir among others- NOT the MICs, are running as fast as they can to get us up to speed, but it is an extreme challenge.
There are those who like to dismiss "fighting the last war" while being oblivious to the fact that the geography hasn't changed. If UKR-RUS has shown us anything of value, it should be that broad steppes pose constant opportunities and limitations whether the war is being fought with spear & shield, from horseback, rifled infantrymen, mechanized tanks and armored vehicles, or now augmented all of the above with drones.
I have no time for elite experts with no sense of geography. They are a danger to both themselves and their nation.
It appears like us the PLAN AO fleet will be vulnerable and need to be found. Their civil tanker fleet as well. That means the islands can be made logistically unsustainable. The best resource to do that?
“Were I to die at this moment, ‘want of submarines!’ would be stamped on my heart"
And let's not forget, if the pacific pivot goes hot, it means the Russians, Iranians, North Koreans, and Houthi will also probably come into play. Hopefully our allies will be more than fair weather friends.
Even the Chinese elites, like the Russians, would prefer to remain alive. If things go nuclear, all leaders will be targeted, and they know it. Muslims and the Norks might not have the same priorities.
At the moment, no. USG are nuclear-biased because, other than nukes, they have nothing substantial on the far side of obsolete strike missiles which are easily downed -- almost all, always a few leakers -- by Russian and, gaining, Chinese and Indian AD / SEAD.
For example, were a BDE of, say, US Army or Marines to insert into now-former Ukraine, they would be liquidated within 2 weeks, CDR, Staff & all. US Americans would cry and USG would go for the only thing they have left: nukes. Granted most of them will be shot down, but some will leak and Russia has been clear and emphatic WRT what follows that.
Design Goals, US Armed Forces TOEs:
1a- Remove the current US bias for nuclear munitions.
1b- Saturate the US Strategic, Operational & Tactical Depth defensive arcs and offensive salients with low-cost, mass-producible, stand-off, precision, hypersonic, supersonic & subsonic conventional munitions.
2- Renounce the predator mindset and offensive posture. Adopt the cooperator mindset and defensive posture, to include conventional offensive capability sufficient to be credible.
3- Deter aggression with Friendship. Answer aggression with Fear.
Troll, are you? UKR is not our country and the US has no right to speak for them. But UKR has spoken with a mighty voice, affirming they are a proud independent nation and want no part of Putin’s Russia.
The reverse Nixon play. Worked then and I don't see why it wouldn't work now. That was the real point of inflexion in the Cold War. Bring India back on side would be a major win too. We sacrificed their good will for the sake of the useless Euros.
Wednesday I tuned into Al Pacino, yes! He plays a marvelous Jewish “Hunter”! One thing we Jews do very well, we “Remember”!
We also “work” and we accept the grade we are given. I’ve got nine (9) more “Module-Lessons”, practice quizzes to memorize. That’s about five hundred questions to remember the correct answers to, for my final Criminal Law exam this Sunday!
Has anyone watched Netflix “The Hunters”? Yesterday I “hunted” for the selling price of 6021 Melbourne Avenue. Only a mere $549K, wondering who is moving in? Not a single person like myself Most likely, another Air B&B opportunity in the “Movie” great state of Maryland.
On 7 August 2025, in the doorway of Father Kosmas’ office at Saints Constantine and Helen’s Greek Orthodox Church, Board Member John Moustakis body blocked me, screaming into both of my ears causing temporary brain damage.!
Just like what modern day torturers do to vulnerable older women. Still, we women choose to keep learning.
The maps here are great; not so the message. I’m reading about what Presidents Vladimir Putin recommends. His annual Question Session is scheduled about 19 December. I suggest we all pay attention.
I’m waiting until the Peace Treaty between Russia and Ukraine is signed. Hopefully that happens in 2026.
Puppet governments are likely in South America and among our Caribbean neighbors because of energy, migration and politics.
Did anyone read about the “Water Ultimatum” forced upon the President of Mexico?
Did anyone read about Marine Corps “Redundancy”? Yes, we need the USMC!
Did anyone read about France sending their military troops into Benin, Africa?
My Christmas - Epiphany Holidays will be very “Quiet” because I’m the 50% Jewish mother keeping the family’s physical memories intact, on the Chesapeake Bay in Deale, Maryland 20751. I’ll be looking at musical or art show venues nearby.
Please share comments, I appreciate reading them. Nurse Jane
"I’m waiting until the Peace Treaty between Russia and Ukraine is signed. Hopefully that happens in 2026."
Don't bet on it. I think the way the war will end is similar to that of the Crimean War. Russia reached a point he couldn't fight anymore. Putin is close to that line now.
The peace-treaty will be a capitulation signing, unconditional. If Russia allows a Ukraine to persist, it will be a rump state, neutral, outside NATO, having a police force but no army, little or no access to The Black Sea, and under close Russian ISR. It's not Ukraine who Russia preempted in 2022. It's NATO. It's not Ukraine who will capitulate, it's London, Paris, and Berlin.
Great perspective. But does China really present a threat to the US? How often have they attacked another country other than to settle what they consider a border dispute? Their desire for Taiwan is no different than how we would consider Texas if it decided to declare independence. If they took Taiwan, I doubt it would affect us much. Chips actually might get cheaper. Their military expansion Eastward isn’t because they want to control us, it’s just to keep us out of their business. They consider themselves superior and want to be in charge of what they think to be their domain. It might be safer for everyone to give them a little bow for their accomplishments and keep out of their affairs. The new national security strategy might actually be acknowledging this.
There are a number of key American allies in what they view as "their domain." It is not in our interest, or that of our allies, to allow an authoritarian hegemon with global ambitions to emerge uncontested in the most important economic zone of the 21st, and likely 22nd, centuries.
"an authoritarian hegemon with global ambitions" is what our USG and our fellow US Americans are struggling to not be anymore. Your vision is for a dream which flitted away and can't be made real.
The world doesn't currently have a world hegemon. It's a consequence of America's decision, made in a gradual process lasting two decades or more, to abandon that role.
China is clearly intending to assume the role of world hegemon, and is working hard to achieve that goal. The belt and road initiative, the military buildup in all areas of military power, establishing strong economic and political ties with current and former American allies all over the globe, construction of a large bluewater navy -- all of these things plus their bellicose rhetoric point to what their true intention is.
Given the extent of what the Chinese are doing in South America and in Central America to enhance their political and economic interests, it is quite obvious that the Chinese intend to isolate and contain the United States to our own continent.
This is a process which might take thirty years or more to achieve, but the Chinese have the patience and the resources needed to pull it off.
Oh, no. We abandoned the tools that allowed the US to be the world Hegemon, but our ruling elites still think of themselves as running a world hegemon. Just on a discount.
"China is clearly intending to assume the role of world hegemon"
That is a posit, not a QED. Moreover, there is no "role of world hegemon" for any nation to assume. Elements of our own USG demonstrate this fact over the last decade in now-former Ukraine.
"Given the extent of what the Chinese are doing in South America and in Central America to enhance their political and economic interests, it is quite obvious that the Chinese intend to isolate and contain the United States to our own continent."
These two sentences lack connection. One does not imply the other. Moreover, phrases such as "is clearly" and "it is quite obvious" almost always indicate conclusion-jumping, not fact-finding.
If you live among their expat communities you would understand the risk is real. The tactic is attacking without the victim knowing it ever happened.
"They consider themselves superior and want to be in charge of what they think to be their domain. It might be safer for everyone to give them a little bow for their accomplishments and keep out of their affairs"
Their affairs will forever be intertwined with our affairs. There is no separating them to a degree that avoids conflict whether hot or cold.
Time to rebump this video an American tourist recounting a meeting he overheard on Kosrae between a local official and some Chinese diplomatic folks...
Full disclosure: ground pounder here. Old technique when preparing for mission was to walk the ground where possible and look at your position (or approach) from the bad guy's perspective. Changing map orientation is often forgotten. Cdr S has it right and there is much precedent. I can't attach it but there's are a few maps on plaques at the Peace Garden Memorials on Okinawa -- looking Southeast over the theater. I visited there in 2019 with family (wife was raised on Okinawa and my dad was on picket duty on "Mighty Midget" LCS(L) 123 in '45).
I spent just over a year on Okinawa. Spent some time motorcycling on Saipan and Tinian. Many such plaques remain, as do other reminders of WWII, and the current threat is anticipated.
Paging Secretary Rubio: we can take places like Ulithi and Yap in wartime, but it will cost a lot of blood. Sure would be easier if we spent a bit of treasure instead to hold the ground in peacetime.
Hey, Sal. Going back to a book we were optionally assigned in Air Command and Staff College, “Ender’s Game”. May have been the best reading we were given.
“The enemy’s gate is down.”
Too bad most of the class heard “optional” and took that to heart.
Note to the USMC: At 15 knots, it will take 3 days for you to cross one of those 1000km range circles from east to west. You'd better figure out how to move Camp Pendleton and those 30+ LSMs to the Phillipines. (Sounds like Rubio needs to move his office to Manila.)
Look at those range circles, and they tell a story of 1898 and our more foresightful ancestors ensuring we had our own "string of pearls" Hawaii-Midway-Wake-Guam-Manila.
China has studied the Pacific ETO of WWII in great detail, with particular attention to what worked for the U.S. Navy, what did not work, and the mistakes we made. China took the lessons learned to heart and incorporated them into its military, including war planning. We cannot afford to underestimate the capabilities of the Chinese Navy (aka PLAN). I believe that the distinguished @CleoPaskal has discussed the Chinese study of the WWII Pacific ETO extensively. The dysfunction of our Navy over the past few decades is not much less than treason, as it puts America at significant risk of losing a war with China, if one happens.
In a recent Cavasships podcast (4Dec2025, Episode 220), former Under Secretary and Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Modly and retired Rear Admiral and former Fincantieri executive Chuck Goddard discussed the Navy's failures. No one in Congress, or in the Navy (or SES) has been held accountable for the series of debacles, beginning with the LPD, continuing with the CG(X), LCS, DDG-1000, Ford Class CVN, Constellation Frigate, and others, including the failure to provide an adequate Carrier aircraft, or maintaining the logistics support that would be neede for the Navy and other miltiary services.
Sorry- Pacific Theater, not Pacific ETO. My recent deep dive into learning the details of my Dad's 44-45 ETO walking journey from France to Germany has ETO tattooed on my brain.
CDR Sal, great job of presenting the problem from a different perspective that genuinely makes a difference in how it is perceived. VERY familiar with the intimate details of this, and your map flip I'd offer makes this look a lot more like Kursk on the Eastern Front than our island-hopping campaign in WWII.
Our best hope is to not fight. We will have to resort to an "unacceptable cost" strategy to maintain the status quo unless the SAP / STO wizards can literally pull a rabbit out of the hat for a "win". Or we go nuclear, and all of the potentially world ending uncertainty breaking that seal implies.
Concur that our best option is not to fight.
In 1984 went diving the Japanese wrecks off Palau (Republic of Koror) for a week, then 3 weeks at Truk Lagoon. Neither place had significant industry other than the tourist industry for diving.
There was a USAF Red Horse unit on Truk working sun up to noon, they using a USAF provided ski boat to dive the wrecks. (The big red, white and blue USAF painted across the side of the boat was a hint). I said to my dive buddy then that the US should expand the international airport at Truk and put some supply depots underground in shelters there.
Sadly none of our leadership seems to be able to read history, or understand the blood, sweat and tears we spent fighting our way across the Pacific on these islands, as Commander Sal so eloquently states in this article. Otherwise, we would have started building up dispersed supply depots, runways, and piers as well as stockpiling the missiles necessary to fight a battle like the one shaping up for Taiwan.
If you want to go die for Taiwan, go right ahead old man.
Young people have no desire to go to war over an internal Chinese squabble.
The Great War on Terror likely sapped the last of Americans world policeman ambitions. And over a trillion dollars.
I always wonder about someone who hides behind the anonymity of a false name and jumps into a conversation to call names, make snarky comments and generally just tries to create hate and discontent. Are you a Chinese troll, or perhaps just sitting in the basement where you live, looking for people to annoy?
Quite obviously two people agree with you, they must have voted for you to be the King of all young people everywhere, since you claim to speak for them.
I don't speak for anyone but myself. I do have many friends who post here and several who worked for me. I enjoy reading their thoughts. I think CDR Sal writes this blog because he cares deeply for this nation and honors the oath he took. I do as well.
OBTW, I pray we do not change from the Cold War we've been in for years into a hot war with China. I have 3 close family members in uniform and all will be in harms way then. I don't think we should engage in any war that we don't have a plan to win.
Quite notable that the only two arguments you can muster is:
1: A rather boomer brained. “Bu-but your profile name!” And
2: “You… Don’t speak for ALL young people! Riiight?”
As for the former that’s just silly. I’m from a generation where “Hitlerclapscheeks68” is just as meaningful as “Jim Coulson”.
As for the latter, it’s just silly rhetorical playing dumb.
No I’m not “The King of Young People” but I know how people my age (30ies) and younger think.
MOREOVER: Polling shows that I’m right on the mark here: Gen Z and Millennials are far less likely than boomers to see China as a threat, and get this: A survey of 1000 young voters from 2025, shows that only 19,7% would support American military intervention EVEN in the case of a full on Chinese invasion of Taiwan. (And no, support among those in their 30ies isn’t much higher.)
TLDR: What if DC declare a war and only boomers show up to fight? That’s the situation we’re dealing with here. That’s also progress imho.
And what is this silly “Cold War with China” nonsense.
You boomers are obsessed with your cold wars.
There is no “Cold War” with China, that idea is just constantly pushed by the military industrial complex and their political lackeys.
Neither is there a need for one. China got their interests in Asia, including Taiwan. US got their interests in the Americas.
There is no reason why the two should clash, beyond of course more deficit spending and more contracts for the MIC and the consultant class.
Perhaps you've never heard that one can disagree without being disagreeable. From your first insult, it was pretty apparent that you wanted a diatribe, not a dialogue, and your three posts here prove that point. So there was no reason to write a column as long as CDR Sal's
So I will wish you a Merry Christmas, or Happy Holidays if the first also offends you. Then I'll mute the conversation. We Boomers need our naptimes, after all.
I just pointed out that if boomers want a war with China, they’ll have to go die themselves, because young people are too smart to go to war for hegemony and some little island that’s Chinese anyways.
And if I’m being disagreeable, it’s probably I kinda take it personally when your generation is quick to support wars that they have ZERO stakes in and want younger generations to fight for them because they think the colD war never ended.
And a merry Christmas and happy new years to you as well. Christ is (soon to be) born.
Google "semiconductor manufacturing" on the device that's using assets most likely not built in the Americas.
It's not just dollars at stake, it's peoples and cultures that have been destroyed by China's actions over the past 6 decades. It's tens of millions starved to death through collectivization.
Clearly no one wants to fight a war, nor is advocating for one. Being prepared for a fight, though, will save millions of those same Gen Z/Millenials/pick a group that same to find the concept of their comfort disrupted a horrifying prospect, as they reach for more Cheetos.
We REALLY need to get a shitload of F-15EX, Super Hornets, P-8s, and tankers on as many islands as possible.
As well as SSKs and missile corvettes, with a "fast to build" frigate hopefully soon backing them.
Would like to see every SSBN that is retired made into SSGN's and keep 2 on station off China at all times. If there is a surprise attack they could hit China with several hundred Tomahawks (assuming we've ramped up production there) right away.
The really SAD thing is wars are won with logistics and we know that. It has been proven time and again. However, we find that our leadership has neither increased our supplies of the tools we need to fight, or the means to deliver them (oilers and logistics ships aren't as sexy as wasting billions on failed combatants) or even the airbases, piers and supply depots necessary for a prolonged fight.
Instead, we throw all our money at Guam and "hope" that it can survive a surprise attack.
I suggest you go to any Navy base during the holidays. You will see submarines, carriers and ships all lined up in neat rows, inviting another Pearl Harbor at any time. We don't even keep a DDG or two off the coast to give AAW protection against SLCM's or drone attacks. Instead we trust that another enemy would never attack us while we were on standdown.
When I was Ops Boss on the Big E (CVN-65) I used to point out stuff like this to Airlant Ops and was told it was none of my business. Of course the same guys told me the same thing when ordered to let a CHICOM Flag officer and his staff video tape our CIC during a tour. Shouldn't even have let them on base, IMHO.
SSGN Crews
In the 60s, we Radarmen stood a CIC watch inport in Norfolk. No radar, just one guy 24/7 monitoring a UHF radio circuit waiting for an announcement of Plan Zulu. That was a surprise attack. What followed was about 10-15 minutes of bogeys we had to track on the DRT (yeah, why?). That plotted track had to be turned in to "higher authority" to grade our alertness. Hokey, I thought. At 0200, there were no GMG's, FTG's, Officers, etc. readily available to foil an air attack. But, tiny step that it was, at least someone was making a token effort to foil another December 7th. RD2, 19-20 years old...what did I know? We Radarmen knew that if we missed the Plan Zulu alert an angry CDO and CO would be the least of our problems. "Eternal vigilance is the price of victory" <---A staple blurb in every Captain's Night Orders.
Dale, We had no "Plan Zulu" in Norfolk when I was Ops boss. (I was CICO for a very short period to get us out of the yards, but was pretty much a direct input Ops O, in the billet for 21 months on what was supposed to be 12 in the hot seat)
When I talked to Airlant Ops, there were 5 carriers and two big deck amphibs plus about half a dozen subs tied up for Christmas all in nice rows. Nobody seemed to care.
The very least we could do now is have a Patriot battalion on base manned 24x7x365.
"The very least we could do now is have a Patriot battalion on base manned 24x7x365."
The very least. Almost no hope that our Navy or Army will do so.
Yeah, there are no USS Wards out there to keep a ray of light on what will be a dark day.
While not building any hardened shelters on Guam. Because, you know, reasons.
The issue with the SSGNs is they were converted to use the life remaining on the hulls while the SWS was removed due to treaty obligations. The best time to convert any more SSBNs to SSGNs has passed, with LOUISIANA (SSBN-743) having completed hers in 2023 following an extension of what was to be a two year process. Unless the schedule DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (SSBN-826) can be pulled forward, that is unlikely.
IMHO, the only manned plane that SHOULD be forward-deployed is runaway-free F-35B. Seriously, it seems USA underestimate the advantages of STOVL machine greatly. It's a stealth fighter that does not need long runaways, for Kitten Holy sake! It could operate even if runaways are constantly damaged by missile barrages - which neither F-15EX nor F/A-18E/F could do.
That map really needs a compass rose to make my headache go away.
It is a challenge to reorient oneself quickly or easily.
I pulled up the view in Google Earth Pro. Doing so also drove further into my brain why PRC is taking over all of those islets in our allies' backyards - If you truly control the Philippines and Taiwan, the mouth of the funnel is closed.
I do not see Taiwan in active combat with China unless it is forced into it. China's military has free rein in all areas around Taiwan. China does have some of the Spratly Islands (and man-made islands). The Spratlys are only ~800 miles from Indonesia, only 250 miles to Malaysia. China might not have 100% control of the Sea Lanes, but it has significant influence in that area and could have 100% control from the Spratly Islands down to Brunei. I think.
I don't know how much of a military presence we have in the Philippines. We may have enough, working with the Philippine military (and possibly the Vietnamese), to stop China from controlling adjacent sea lanes.
Sorry I didn’t make myself clear. I wasn’t saying that Taiwan would attack PRC. I was trying to say that if/when PRC takes Taiwan, that part of the puzzle is solved.
Likely my misinterpretation. I agree that if China absorbs Taiwan, that part of the puzzle is solved. I do not believe we can stop China from taking over Taiwan. Our Navy has allowed itself to atrophy into a 2nd class Navy. We cannot design, build, or maintain warships. Our logistics support is challenged by our Navy going to Hawaii, let alone to points West, especially in contested waters. In a recent Cavasships podcast with Secretary Modly and Admiral (ret) Goddard, they mentioned the status of all Navy warship projects. My numbers are off, but it was something like of 60 projects, 53 were over budget and behind schedule. The failures of our Navy are widespread.
My Ph.D dissertation was on DoD cost overruns (big fat target set), and how to fix the problem. Among other problems, DoD acquisitions suffer from the same problems EVERY public project has, starting with intentional over-promising on cost and schedule (which leads to greater costs). In my not-so-humble opinion, Navy problems start with two things - members of Congress in shipyard districts promising jobs, and an unbelievable lack of appreciation for technical risks. With those as the problem's base layer, every cost and schedule problem with the Constellation class can be explained.
My Ph.D dissertation was on DoD cost overruns (big fat target set), and how to fix the problem. Among other problems, DoD acquisitions suffer from the same problems EVERY public project has, starting with intentional over-promising on cost and schedule (which leads to greater costs). In my not-so-humble opinion, Navy problems start with two things - members of Congress in shipyard districts promising jobs, and an unbelievable lack of appreciation for technical risks. With those as the problem's base layer, every cost and schedule problem with the Constellation class can be explained.
This is where we need a continuous allied force projection. We need destroyers and frigates from SK, Japan, and Australia in DESRONs permanently based in and patrolling the SCS...and building. We leaven them with our destroyers rolling in and out until we can build more to station in the area with them. Also AIPs to patrol continuously, coordinated with our nuke boats and those we build for AUS. This is for two reasons: one, to have assets in the area just in case (and let the PRC know it to change their calculations) and, two, to show these Islands that there is more to being friends with OUR side than just getting money...we are there, we are involved, and if you ally with the PRC we have the resources to squash whatever they built for you if the PRC attacks us.
In the final analysis, we are going to have to do to the Chinese what they plan to do to us. We need long range air assets that have the legs to be be launched beyond interdiction range and send a lot of JASSM-ERs and LRASM-ERs down their throats....a lot more missiles than we have now. The PRC plans to overwhelm all these areas out to Guam with their barrage of missiles - so we are multiplying their targets and increasing their uncertainty. After that first frenetic, kinetic strike they think they will settle in to take Taiwan before we recover. But if they have to worry about a long range response...then what? They pretty much shot their wad on the first strike...and it may hurt us...but we need them to understand it won't kill us and that there will be a response.
Unfortunately, our national security strategy is fragmented with ADHD type of activities.
The neoliberal/neocon desire to cripple Russia is one of those distractions. Imagine if we'd just let Ukraine remain as the kleptocratic backwater it was meant to be: a toothless buffer state that didn't threaten Europe or Russia.
Imagine if we hadn't burned up so much blood and resources, and the good will of the American people, meddling around in the middle east for 20+ years.
We had a chance to contain China, and we blew it on sidequests, as the kids say. Maybe there's still a chance, but I'm not sure that we have a federal apparatus any longer that's capable of engaging in that kind of long-term strategic action plan.
Russia needs to be crippled. Russia chose to open the war and become a threat again. Putin's desire for a revived Russian empire made it that way. Ukraine is just step one.
Ukraine’s leadership chose to get dogwalked by US and British neoliberals, despite very clear and repeated warnings that they were treading a dangerous and consequential path.
I feel bad for the people of Ukraine, but they got the leadership the people of Crimea and the Donbas didn’t vote for.
There’s a complicated series of events that got us to this current situation, and the Ukrainian leadership are not innocent Davids fighting Goliath.
The reason they had a good army in 2022 was because NATO trained and equipped them with the goal to take back the
Donbas and Crimea through violent force of action. Russia attacked first, but war was coming to the Donbas one way or another.
War was coming simply because Putin wanted it. He wants all of Ukraine. His war aims can not be met without taking the whole country and it takes little intelligence to realize it. Anyone claiming that Putin does not want all of Ukraine is simply a retard or a liar. Take you pick.
"Ukraine’s leadership chose to get dogwalked by US and British neoliberals, despite very clear and repeated warnings that they were treading a dangerous and consequential path."
That is utter BS. Ukraine is fighting an existential war adn knows all to well what the stakes are. They realize that the surrender documents presented and insisted on by Putin, adn Putin's asset, Trump, will lead to the end of Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. Brutally, you're being silly.
And, so what if they were going to take back the Crime and occupied Donbas. It is their country and they have every right to do so. The west had every right to train and equip them as well. Putin has no right to be there and the "reasons" he gave for the invasion are nothing but a pack of lies.
The people of the Donbas and Crimea have no right to self-determination, I suppose. The guy they voted for got overthrown, the election that brought in Zelensky had no participation from the Donbas or Crimea.
Ukraine got played by US neoliberals and neocons, who supported the new democracy that overthrew the previous democracy. That’s their existential problem. They bought the ticket and now they don’t like the ride.
We bombed the hell out of the Serbians when they tried to retake Kosovo by force after that area declared itself separate from Serbia.
It appears you want to believe the jingoistic explanations of this conflict, so I will leave you to that.
Your naïveté is glaring. Yanukovych walked away. Because of the killings on the Maidan plaza, a warrant was cut for his arrest. Rather than be a man and standing trial, he ran for asylum to his puppet master, Sad Vlad Putin, and abaondoned his office. He abandoned his office. He was not ousted.
I do not hold with any sort of jingoistic explanations, and I do not buy the lies about Ukraine being played by anyone.
By the bye, Most of the Donbas took part in the election of 2019. It is true that Crimea did not participation as they were under an illegal occupation by Putin's thugs. That does not change the right of Crimea and Donbas to self determination. That, however, posits they were allowed self determination. In the case of Crimea, that was not the case. Putin invaded Crimea and Ukrainians were pushed out of Crimea, and Putin imported thousands of colonists and allowed the occupying army to vote. The "vote" in the Donbas was just as corrupt.
bets on whether the CCP has more IRBMs and ICBMs targeted on us than we have JASSM?
Nope. About as much chance as betting that our Navy has more warships than China does.
though smaller than ours, I bet they aren't as under armed as our recent designs (LCS and FFG)
Our ships tend toward sustained but low rate of fire, while USSR and CCP designs tend toward the 'get them all off early' approach
We have FFGs?
note I said designs, not bottoms
think FFG(X)
though later Perry's anti-surface weapons were limited to CWIS and what the SH-60 could carry, once their SM1R and harpoons were gutted
Ha. My substandard reading comprehension rears its ugly head again. Apologies!
Well, with increased production we are expecting 3,600 JASSMs on hand in 2026 (2025 budget alone requested 450 JASSMs, with 389 planned for the 2026 request, alongside significant multi-year contracts). Lockheed Martin is increasing its output, aiming to produce over 1,000 JASSMs (including LRASM) annually, with production lines ramping up for various variants (total doesn't include, for instance, next-gen variants like the 1,000-mile range AGM-158D). We don't know exact numbers on the LRASM and LRASM-ER for anti-ship, but the Pentagon awarded huge contracts in 2024/2025 for hundreds of LRASM missiles.
In the 2024 DOD China Military Power Report, they cite around 550 ICBM launchers (with 400 missiles) and approximately 250 IRBM launchers (with 500 DF-26 missiles), while total missiles exceeding 3,000. They are also building inventory...but rough parity with these longer range stand off systems. There is also the potential for the EOBA to actually work and all our shorter range systems can do work from inside the AOC.
But if we learned anything from Ukraine and the wars in the sandbox and actions off Yemen...we're going to expend an awful lot of missiles real quick - hopefully to effect so that follow on strikes aren't necessary. You don't want to go Winchester, so we need lots more of all types in the inventory (rearming logistical issues aside)
Charts and geography! Great map today.
A second map, oriented from the EAST (Indian ocean approaches to Malacca, Singapore, Sunda, et. al. ) would be a fine additional look. Severe restriction of oil via that quarter will limit China's ability to wage a lengthy war of attrition; which the next Indo-Pacific conflict is shaping up to be after the first salvos of missiles and ship losses.
Restricting the strait is only part of the oil. There's still the pipelines from Russia. Other vulnerabilities will need to be found and exploited. Like the PLAN AO.
Yep, this is why China pivoted hard to Russia and Russia pivoted hard to China. Russia provides raw materials, oil, and gas for Chinese industry that can't be interdicted by the U.S. or NATO navies in the Indian or Pacific oceans.
And now China has far more data on the performance of sea-borne drones, ADA, NATO ground vehicles and guided missile assets thanks to the Ukraine war.
One of the big problems is that it's very likely that China can implement new systems and doctrinal revisions based on this new information much faster than the U.S. military and sclerotic DoD bureaucracy can.
I don't have the facts at my fingertips, but read an article awhile back that said China was building new strategic petroleum storage sites and had filled all current ones to capacity.
Meanwhile we're still diddling around trying to figure things out. Last I heard we were still below half full on our own reserves and haven't built new storage in decades.
But some in the military pretend we can airlift our supplies to Midway and points West.
No plans for an LMSR replacement yet. Once I see that I'll think all this is actually serious. Even if they decide to stay in "our own Hemisphere" There needs to be some new roll on roll off with some i cranes to haul big thigs like the ligherage.
Not only very likely, but almost certainly. A few companies, Anduril and Palantir among others- NOT the MICs, are running as fast as they can to get us up to speed, but it is an extreme challenge.
Not sure Russia has the capacity to supply China the oil needed during a conflic.
Then we can expect a Chinese invasion of the Dutch East Indies.
Why not Japan wanted a go at it , look how that plan ended up.
China is closer than Japan, and we may not have the resources to go after the oil this time.
What would you recommend?
There are those who like to dismiss "fighting the last war" while being oblivious to the fact that the geography hasn't changed. If UKR-RUS has shown us anything of value, it should be that broad steppes pose constant opportunities and limitations whether the war is being fought with spear & shield, from horseback, rifled infantrymen, mechanized tanks and armored vehicles, or now augmented all of the above with drones.
I have no time for elite experts with no sense of geography. They are a danger to both themselves and their nation.
It appears like us the PLAN AO fleet will be vulnerable and need to be found. Their civil tanker fleet as well. That means the islands can be made logistically unsustainable. The best resource to do that?
“Were I to die at this moment, ‘want of submarines!’ would be stamped on my heart"
And let's not forget, if the pacific pivot goes hot, it means the Russians, Iranians, North Koreans, and Houthi will also probably come into play. Hopefully our allies will be more than fair weather friends.
"Hopefully our allies will be more than fair weather friends."
That is not a good way to bet.
Can any war with China or Russia not end up going nuclear? Just a thought
Surely it would "just" be tactical nukes. LOL.
Ultimate determining factor of any success or failure will be logistics IMHO Not sure we still have the legs to meet the needs.
Even the Chinese elites, like the Russians, would prefer to remain alive. If things go nuclear, all leaders will be targeted, and they know it. Muslims and the Norks might not have the same priorities.
This is the war. Preparation, positioning, influencing, and finally war by proxy. "The War" should it occur, is already a form of defeat.
At the moment, no. USG are nuclear-biased because, other than nukes, they have nothing substantial on the far side of obsolete strike missiles which are easily downed -- almost all, always a few leakers -- by Russian and, gaining, Chinese and Indian AD / SEAD.
For example, were a BDE of, say, US Army or Marines to insert into now-former Ukraine, they would be liquidated within 2 weeks, CDR, Staff & all. US Americans would cry and USG would go for the only thing they have left: nukes. Granted most of them will be shot down, but some will leak and Russia has been clear and emphatic WRT what follows that.
Design Goals, US Armed Forces TOEs:
1a- Remove the current US bias for nuclear munitions.
1b- Saturate the US Strategic, Operational & Tactical Depth defensive arcs and offensive salients with low-cost, mass-producible, stand-off, precision, hypersonic, supersonic & subsonic conventional munitions.
2- Renounce the predator mindset and offensive posture. Adopt the cooperator mindset and defensive posture, to include conventional offensive capability sufficient to be credible.
3- Deter aggression with Friendship. Answer aggression with Fear.
We could also reach an agreement with Russia. That might separate Russia and China. Ukraine would go the way of South Vietnam.
Troll, are you? UKR is not our country and the US has no right to speak for them. But UKR has spoken with a mighty voice, affirming they are a proud independent nation and want no part of Putin’s Russia.
Erm, then why are you speaking for Taiwan, which isn't your country - and you didn't even recognize it as a country?)
Who is picking up the tab for their pride?
Is anyone who disagrees with you a troll?
The reverse Nixon play. Worked then and I don't see why it wouldn't work now. That was the real point of inflexion in the Cold War. Bring India back on side would be a major win too. We sacrificed their good will for the sake of the useless Euros.
Good Morning shipmates…
Wednesday I tuned into Al Pacino, yes! He plays a marvelous Jewish “Hunter”! One thing we Jews do very well, we “Remember”!
We also “work” and we accept the grade we are given. I’ve got nine (9) more “Module-Lessons”, practice quizzes to memorize. That’s about five hundred questions to remember the correct answers to, for my final Criminal Law exam this Sunday!
Has anyone watched Netflix “The Hunters”? Yesterday I “hunted” for the selling price of 6021 Melbourne Avenue. Only a mere $549K, wondering who is moving in? Not a single person like myself Most likely, another Air B&B opportunity in the “Movie” great state of Maryland.
On 7 August 2025, in the doorway of Father Kosmas’ office at Saints Constantine and Helen’s Greek Orthodox Church, Board Member John Moustakis body blocked me, screaming into both of my ears causing temporary brain damage.!
Just like what modern day torturers do to vulnerable older women. Still, we women choose to keep learning.
The maps here are great; not so the message. I’m reading about what Presidents Vladimir Putin recommends. His annual Question Session is scheduled about 19 December. I suggest we all pay attention.
I’m waiting until the Peace Treaty between Russia and Ukraine is signed. Hopefully that happens in 2026.
Puppet governments are likely in South America and among our Caribbean neighbors because of energy, migration and politics.
Did anyone read about the “Water Ultimatum” forced upon the President of Mexico?
Did anyone read about Marine Corps “Redundancy”? Yes, we need the USMC!
Did anyone read about France sending their military troops into Benin, Africa?
My Christmas - Epiphany Holidays will be very “Quiet” because I’m the 50% Jewish mother keeping the family’s physical memories intact, on the Chesapeake Bay in Deale, Maryland 20751. I’ll be looking at musical or art show venues nearby.
Please share comments, I appreciate reading them. Nurse Jane
"I’m waiting until the Peace Treaty between Russia and Ukraine is signed. Hopefully that happens in 2026."
Don't bet on it. I think the way the war will end is similar to that of the Crimean War. Russia reached a point he couldn't fight anymore. Putin is close to that line now.
The peace-treaty will be a capitulation signing, unconditional. If Russia allows a Ukraine to persist, it will be a rump state, neutral, outside NATO, having a police force but no army, little or no access to The Black Sea, and under close Russian ISR. It's not Ukraine who Russia preempted in 2022. It's NATO. It's not Ukraine who will capitulate, it's London, Paris, and Berlin.
Great assessment, Sal. God, we have been beating this drum for at least a decade. Sigh....winter is coming.
Great perspective. But does China really present a threat to the US? How often have they attacked another country other than to settle what they consider a border dispute? Their desire for Taiwan is no different than how we would consider Texas if it decided to declare independence. If they took Taiwan, I doubt it would affect us much. Chips actually might get cheaper. Their military expansion Eastward isn’t because they want to control us, it’s just to keep us out of their business. They consider themselves superior and want to be in charge of what they think to be their domain. It might be safer for everyone to give them a little bow for their accomplishments and keep out of their affairs. The new national security strategy might actually be acknowledging this.
There are a number of key American allies in what they view as "their domain." It is not in our interest, or that of our allies, to allow an authoritarian hegemon with global ambitions to emerge uncontested in the most important economic zone of the 21st, and likely 22nd, centuries.
"an authoritarian hegemon with global ambitions" is what our USG and our fellow US Americans are struggling to not be anymore. Your vision is for a dream which flitted away and can't be made real.
The world doesn't currently have a world hegemon. It's a consequence of America's decision, made in a gradual process lasting two decades or more, to abandon that role.
China is clearly intending to assume the role of world hegemon, and is working hard to achieve that goal. The belt and road initiative, the military buildup in all areas of military power, establishing strong economic and political ties with current and former American allies all over the globe, construction of a large bluewater navy -- all of these things plus their bellicose rhetoric point to what their true intention is.
Given the extent of what the Chinese are doing in South America and in Central America to enhance their political and economic interests, it is quite obvious that the Chinese intend to isolate and contain the United States to our own continent.
This is a process which might take thirty years or more to achieve, but the Chinese have the patience and the resources needed to pull it off.
Oh, no. We abandoned the tools that allowed the US to be the world Hegemon, but our ruling elites still think of themselves as running a world hegemon. Just on a discount.
"China is clearly intending to assume the role of world hegemon"
That is a posit, not a QED. Moreover, there is no "role of world hegemon" for any nation to assume. Elements of our own USG demonstrate this fact over the last decade in now-former Ukraine.
"Given the extent of what the Chinese are doing in South America and in Central America to enhance their political and economic interests, it is quite obvious that the Chinese intend to isolate and contain the United States to our own continent."
These two sentences lack connection. One does not imply the other. Moreover, phrases such as "is clearly" and "it is quite obvious" almost always indicate conclusion-jumping, not fact-finding.
"Elements of our own USG demonstrate this fact over the last decade in now-former Ukraine."
How? What does this even mean?
If you live among their expat communities you would understand the risk is real. The tactic is attacking without the victim knowing it ever happened.
"They consider themselves superior and want to be in charge of what they think to be their domain. It might be safer for everyone to give them a little bow for their accomplishments and keep out of their affairs"
Their affairs will forever be intertwined with our affairs. There is no separating them to a degree that avoids conflict whether hot or cold.
Time to rebump this video an American tourist recounting a meeting he overheard on Kosrae between a local official and some Chinese diplomatic folks...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=shXCsemt-js&t=227s
Yeah. They are absolutely a threat.
Full disclosure: ground pounder here. Old technique when preparing for mission was to walk the ground where possible and look at your position (or approach) from the bad guy's perspective. Changing map orientation is often forgotten. Cdr S has it right and there is much precedent. I can't attach it but there's are a few maps on plaques at the Peace Garden Memorials on Okinawa -- looking Southeast over the theater. I visited there in 2019 with family (wife was raised on Okinawa and my dad was on picket duty on "Mighty Midget" LCS(L) 123 in '45).
I spent just over a year on Okinawa. Spent some time motorcycling on Saipan and Tinian. Many such plaques remain, as do other reminders of WWII, and the current threat is anticipated.
Paging Secretary Rubio: we can take places like Ulithi and Yap in wartime, but it will cost a lot of blood. Sure would be easier if we spent a bit of treasure instead to hold the ground in peacetime.
Destroy the means to fight and by-pass.
Jetcal1: That's how MacArthur did it, supposedly. Don't try to take islands that are not critical to the fight.
Hey, Sal. Going back to a book we were optionally assigned in Air Command and Staff College, “Ender’s Game”. May have been the best reading we were given.
“The enemy’s gate is down.”
Too bad most of the class heard “optional” and took that to heart.
Note to the USMC: At 15 knots, it will take 3 days for you to cross one of those 1000km range circles from east to west. You'd better figure out how to move Camp Pendleton and those 30+ LSMs to the Phillipines. (Sounds like Rubio needs to move his office to Manila.)
Look at those range circles, and they tell a story of 1898 and our more foresightful ancestors ensuring we had our own "string of pearls" Hawaii-Midway-Wake-Guam-Manila.
China has studied the Pacific ETO of WWII in great detail, with particular attention to what worked for the U.S. Navy, what did not work, and the mistakes we made. China took the lessons learned to heart and incorporated them into its military, including war planning. We cannot afford to underestimate the capabilities of the Chinese Navy (aka PLAN). I believe that the distinguished @CleoPaskal has discussed the Chinese study of the WWII Pacific ETO extensively. The dysfunction of our Navy over the past few decades is not much less than treason, as it puts America at significant risk of losing a war with China, if one happens.
In a recent Cavasships podcast (4Dec2025, Episode 220), former Under Secretary and Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas Modly and retired Rear Admiral and former Fincantieri executive Chuck Goddard discussed the Navy's failures. No one in Congress, or in the Navy (or SES) has been held accountable for the series of debacles, beginning with the LPD, continuing with the CG(X), LCS, DDG-1000, Ford Class CVN, Constellation Frigate, and others, including the failure to provide an adequate Carrier aircraft, or maintaining the logistics support that would be neede for the Navy and other miltiary services.
https://defaeroreport.com/2025/12/04/defense-aerospace-report-cavasships-podcast-dec-04-25-ep-220-tom-modly-chuck-goddard-on-constellation-lessons-learned/
Sorry- Pacific Theater, not Pacific ETO. My recent deep dive into learning the details of my Dad's 44-45 ETO walking journey from France to Germany has ETO tattooed on my brain.