Does Israel have the Key to Modernity's Fatal Flaw?
...part of it
From East Asia, to the Americas, to Europe, to really any nation considered ‘developed’, there is a future problem. It isn’t climate change. It isn’t food. It isn’t fuel. It isn’t what everyone likes to talk about.
The problem is that the human race is trying to extinct itself.
You can fake a lot of things, but you can’t fake demographics. Kids are born. People die. You have a census. The math is exact.
The train wreck is already taking place and cannot be stopped. It is baked in. We just don’t see it fully yet because it takes a human lifetime to manifest itself. You cannot suddenly create 15-year-old kids.
As a species, we have never seen anything like what will unroll for the rest of this century.
At the bottom of this post is the interview on Triggernometry with Dr. Paul Morland. Yes, it is long, but is worth your time. Play it on your commute if necessary. He provides some names, so let’s use some of them to outline the issue.
Israel was only briefly mentioned, as were Hungary and Georgia and others as possible solutions, in addition to mentioning some of the more well-known worst-case nations. Let’s start with Israel.
She is one of the most advanced nations and cultures on the planet. In that top group, she is the only one that is making a future, demographically, for herself with the economy to make it a good future.
Yes, yes, yes, the Ultra-Orthodox Jews are part of that…and he covers that part of the issue. The future will not be a Western world of Ultra-Orthodox Jews, Amish, and Mormons…though there will be relatively more of them. Anyway, it's in the video.
Culture, natalism, policy…a lot of smart people need to be looking at Israel and asking Israelis a lot of probing questions, as there are few other good benchmarks out there.
As ChatGPT and Grok are good at numbers, I asked them to do the hard math for us to ponder.
First, ChatGPT, and let’s start with the outlier; Israel:
This rate is notably higher than that of other developed countries, reflecting Israel's unique demographic trends. The TFR varies among different religious and ethnic groups within the country:
Jewish population: The TFR has remained relatively stable over recent years, with a slight decrease from 3.03 in 2022 to 3.00 in 2023. en.wikipedia.org
Muslim population: There has been a gradual decline in TFR, from 2.91 in 2022 to 2.81 in 2023. en.wikipedia.org
Christian population: The TFR has decreased slightly, from 1.68 in 2022 to 1.64 in 2023. en.wikipedia.org
Druze population: The TFR has declined from 1.85 in 2022 to 1.75 in 2023.
Next Grok:
…the total fertility rate (TFR) in Israel was 2.89 births per woman in 2022, according to sources like Statista and the OECD, in collaboration with the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics. This figure reflects a slight decline from previous years, such as 2.90 in 2021 and 3.03 in 2018, indicating a gradual downward trend. However, Israel’s TFR remains the highest among OECD countries by a significant margin, nearly double the OECD average of 1.5, with Mexico and France following at 1.8.
This rate varies across demographic groups within Israel. For example, Jewish women had a TFR of about 3.03 in 2022 (down from 3.17 in 2018), while Muslim women’s TFR dropped from 3.20 to 2.91 over the same period. Among specific groups, Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) Jewish women have a much higher TFR, often cited around 6.1 to 6.6, though this too has been declining slightly. Secular Jewish fertility, while lower, still exceeds the replacement level of 2.1, contributing to Israel’s unique demographic profile among developed nations.
What about the nation of Georgia?
… the total fertility rate (TFR) in the nation of Georgia was 2.06 births per woman in 2022, according to the World Bank and other aligned sources like Statista. This figure reflects a slight decline from 2.08 in 2021, continuing a gradual downward trend observed in recent years. Historically, Georgia’s TFR has fluctuated, dropping to a low of 1.55 in 2003 and peaking at 2.95 in 1963, with an average of about 2.21 from 1960 to 2022.
What about Hungary?
… the total fertility rate (TFR) in Hungary was 1.52 births per woman in 2022, according to the World Bank and Statista, based on figures from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office and other recognized sources. This reflects a slight decline from 1.59 in 2021, a peak following years of gradual increase from a low of 1.23 in 2011.
Those are some of the successes in the developed world.
What about the failures?
South Korea?
…the total fertility rate (TFR) in South Korea was 0.72 births per woman in 2023, according to Statistics Korea, as reported widely by sources like Reuters, TIME, and the World Bank. This marks a decline from 0.78 in 2022, reinforcing South Korea’s position as having the world’s lowest fertility rate among nations with significant populations.
And the big story for mid-century:
…As of the most recent confirmed data available to me, the total fertility rate (TFR) in the People's Republic of China was 1.18 births per woman in 2022, according to the World Bank and Statista, citing Chinese state media and the National Business Daily. This figure reflects a slight increase from 1.16 in 2021, but it continues a broader downward trend from previous decades.
Again, I asked Grok to do the numbers for me with the following question:
Assuming that Israel, Georgia, Hungary, South Korea, and the People's Republic of China's total fertility rates of 2022 were to remain consistent and there was zero net migration, how long until their populations are cut in half?
Yes, yes, yes…assumptions and variables, but you have to define things at some point. What I am interested in is what are the pressures by mid-century those in the national security field and domestic policy will have to deal with not just in these sample nations, but others like them.
What was the answer?
Make time to listen to the below. Yes; economics, debt, fleet size, and nuclear proliferation are important issues for the future, but the future belongs to those who show up.
If you don’t have a growing population, you have to make critical decisions.
As mentioned in the below video as popularized by Eric Kaufmann in his 2010 book, Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?, you can have only two of the three below if your nation’s TFR is below replacement.
Ethnic continuity
Economy that functions
Low fertility
Pick carefully.
Germanophile here again, myself, weighing in on the TFR in the USA, with its high health care costs, including the cost of giving birth, vs. Germany with its comprehensive health coverage due to socialized medicine (plus an even higher level of care for the well-off who can choose private insurance) that makes making babies much more affordable. Wait 'til you see how much better the German TFR is than the one for the States.
USA: 1.8
Germany: 1.6
Wait, what?! That is the wrong answer!
Okay, how about Finland, where babies are delivered for free in a nifty cardboard box crammed with free baby-care items?
Finland: 1.42
I guess it must have to do with other factors than cost. Perhaps it's down to the way that modern women have alternatives that many simply find preferable to bearing and raising children.
Be fruitful and multiply. I believe I read that somewhere.