Escalation Traps and Off Ramps

this has to be the last week

I have no idea what to do with this statement from the President of the United States earlier today.

This is not what I would recommend. It can be read about six different ways, and the most charitable one would be, “Take the President of the United States seriously, but not literally.”

That isn’t what I am going to focus on today. Nope. In this space, I am accountable to myself and my loyal readers.

On March 2nd, I put this on the table.

While I approve of what we’ve done so far, I am going to put a marker down.

My support is based on what we see this beautiful March 2nd, 2026. If this degenerates into another long, drawn-out conflict where we put boots on the ground, my opinion will change. If it drags on for weeks of diminishing returns, my opinion will change.

The sooner we state, “We’ve made our point. Don’t make us come back.” the better.

If the Iranian people want to take this opportunity to change their government, then fine. That’s for them to make their move. We opened the door, but they have to walk through it.

We need to be steadfast on this one point: we won’t wait for them.

As we discussed at the end of last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reminded everyone of the four goals of Operation Epic Fury:

• Destroy their weapons factories
• Destroy their navy
• Destroy their air force
• Destroy their chances of ever having a nuclear weapon

I’m tapping my marker from 02MAR2026.

It is time to come home.

I could do 2,000 words on this, but I don’t think it is necessary. I’ve written and spoken enough on the topic and I am already eight hours late getting this out. (hey, a citizen has to produce taxable income, cut a brother some slack)

In any conflict, there will always be those who are calling for more. One more goal. Expand modest goals. Propose a new serial plan that was never part of the original OPLAN. Convince everyone that they’re “almost there” when all the agreed measures of effectiveness are green. It requires a disciplined leader to know how to bridle their enthusiasm and contain their own arrogance and that of their staff. They know what escalation traps are and how to avoid them.

Any human can become overconfident and addled with victory disease—a non-zero number of people on a planning staff will most certainly be infected. It requires a disciplined leader to know their limits and to fully scope the cost/benefit of overconfidence.

From the start of our forces going feet-dry, I have been worried that we were one golden BB or mechanical failure away from having aircrew, alive or dead, in possession of the Iranian government. That would limit our options.

With the recovery over Easter weekend of the pilot and WSO in the F-15E, we had that great combination of being good and being lucky. We’ve had a hot run in the Venezuelan and Iranian operation. Hot runs don’t last forever. We’ve bought time before Iran goes nuclear. We may have to return.

That’s OK.

Go back to our goals.

• We’ve significantly degraded Iran’s weapons factories.

• Their navy and air force are, for all intents and purposes, gone. It will take years and huge amounts of money to reconstitute even a third-rate force of either.

• We’ve degraded their nuclear program for some length of time. Exactly how long is unknown, but it’s longer than it was a year ago.

We’ve done what we started out to do. It is time to state we’ve met our goals, and we’re done. Let the diplomatic, economic, and informational second-order effects work themselves out, but it is time to say “enough” with the military while we still have that option.

In the words of the great American philosopher, Kenny Rogers,

You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em,

Know when to walk away and know when to run

Let’s smile gracefully. Push the chair back. Stand up. Tip the dealer. Wink at those we defeated, and head out the door.

We’ve made our point. We control the off-ramp. Let’s take it.

It is time. I’m calling my marker.

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UPDATE: Must credit Salamander.