Fullbore Friday

enemy or not, they're Sailors

I was having a moody moment when I first posted on this back in 2010, and it kind of hits today as well.

This is mostly the same post from 2010, but I’ve modified it in places.

When researching a larger story—in this case the week that was the Battle of Leyte Gulf in October of 1944—I found a little vignette that in its own way is poignant—even if from our then enemy’s perspective. Even when it is the enemy, it makes you pause. Sailors are Sailors.

In just a little more time than the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 has been running, the Imperial Japanese Navy's (IJN) aircraft carrier Zuikaku went from being part of the Kidō Butai that devastated the U.S. Navy’s fleet in Pearl Harbor to being—2 years and 10 months later—the last of her kind.

At the start of the war, the IJN had ten fleet carriers in five divisions. Six of those carriers were part of the attack on Pearl Harbor, Akagi (sunk June 1942 at the battle of Midway), Kaga (sunk June 1942 at the battle of Midway), Sōryū (sunk June 1942 at the battle of Midway), Hiryū (sunk June 1942 at the battle of Midway), Shōkaku (sunk June 1944 by USS Cavalla (SS 244)), leavingt Zuikaku as the last survivor by October 1944 of those IJN aircraft carriers that kicked off the war.

She had an impressive war record, with her airwing sinking both U.S. and Royal Navy aircraft carriers and numerous other ships. At least she had a warrior’s death.

Four months after the sinking of Shōkaku, Zuikaku found herself at the rough end of Halsey's Folly,

Ozawa's "Northern Force" comprised four aircraft carriers (Zuikaku — the last survivor of the six carriers that had attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941, the light carriers Zuihō, Chitose, and Chiyoda), two World War I battleships partially converted to carriers (Hyūga and Ise — the two after turrets had been replaced by a hangar, aircraft handling deck and catapult, but neither battleship carried any aircraft in this battle), three light cruisers (Ōyodo, Tama, and Isuzu), and nine destroyers. His force had only 108 aircraft.
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The force which Halsey was taking north with him — three groups of Mitscher's Task Force 38 — was overwhelmingly stronger than the Japanese Northern Force. Between them, these groups had five large fleet carriers (Intrepid, Franklin, Lexington, Enterprise, and Essex), five light fleet carriers (Independence, Belleau Wood, Langley, Cabot, and San Jacinto), six battleships (Alabama, Iowa, Massachusetts, New Jersey, South Dakota, and Washington), eight cruisers (two heavy and six light), and more than 40 destroyers. The air groups of the 10 US carriers present contained a total of more than 600-1,000 aircraft.

At the tactical level—the results came as expected.

In October 1944, she was the flagship of Admiral Jisaburo Ozawa's decoy Northern Force in Operation Shō-Gō 1, the Japanese counterattack to the Allied landings on Leyte. On 24 October, as part of the depleted Third Carrier Division, which had just 108 aircraft across four carriers, she launched aircraft along with the light carriers Zuihō, Chitose, and Chiyoda in an ineffective strike against the U.S. Third Fleet. Several of these aircraft were shot down, and the majority of the surviving aircraft did not return to the carriers, instead landing at Japanese land bases on Luzon. However, some of her aircraft made kamikaze attacks and helped sink the light carrier USS Princeton; and most of the others were sent to other surviving carriers and air bases, to later sink the escort carrier USS St. Lo during the Battle off Samar after again using the new kamikaze tactics.

The next day, during the Battle off Cape Engaño, she launched her few remaining aircraft for combat air patrol, search, or to join the aircraft already on Luzon. She then came under heavy air attack and was hit by seven torpedoes and nine bombs. With Zuikaku listing heavily to port, Ozawa shifted his flag to the light cruiser Ōyodo. The order to abandon ship was issued at 13:58 and the naval ensign was lowered. Zuikaku rolled over and sank stern-first at 14:14, taking the lives of Rear Admiral (promoted from captain 10 days earlier) Kaizuka Takeo and 842 of the ship's crew; 862 officers and men were rescued by the destroyers Wakatsuki and Kuwa.

What happens to a nation and a navy who, appearing so strong at peace, gambles on a quick and decisive war—as that is what was briefed by the Smartest People in the Room™—but lacked the industrial capacity to replace losses, or even effectively repair damaged ships?

Look at the number and type of aircraft carriers built by the IJN before and during WWII, and then compare it to the U.S. number and type of aircraft carriers the U.S. built during the same timeframe.

If you are going to go to war, especially a naval war, industrial capacity matters. Shipyards cannot be built overnight. Skilled shipyard personnel cannot be created out of whole cloth. Sovereign control of or reliable access to raw materials and technology cannot be wished into being. You can not quickly scale something that doesn’t exist.

If you don’t have these things, you go to war with the navy you have and must pray for a short war. History shows us, even to this day, that short wars are a rarity. They are often sold by strategic grifters and rent-seeking charlatans positioning themselves for their own position, power, and profit in the now—telling people pleasant fictions they want to hear—as opposed to describing the hard truth of what it will actually take to achieve victory…or if victory is actually possible. While they privatize the bounty of now, they socialize future risk to their nation.

And so, often nations find themselves in wars that go on too long, that cost too much in blood and treasure for them to cover. Their leaders—whether they brought their nations into this place or had it thrust upon them—see nothing but a dead end for themselves. They will drag their nation down with them, clinging to the hope that some miracle—a weapon or a storm—might save them from certain doom.

The people of that nation who look to their leaders to make the right choices?

They find themselves on some beautiful day, on the leaning deck of their sinking ship, saluting as their flag is lowered.

Just ponder, prepare, demand, and hold to account.