A fictional futurist novel I read some years ago, "Ghost Fleet" (Adm Stavridis was a co-author) had a lot of hard science in it. One technological advance made it impossible for nuclear powered vessels to hide their location. This rendered our sub and carrier forces defenseless. Could Quantum computing do the same? Hard to protect a CVN if its location is a set of constantly updated DF2xx targeting firing solution coordinates. Asking for a friend...
Neutrino detectors continue to get smaller. The KM3NET is employing them on the bottom of the Med so that scientist can measure neutrino energies. It is easy to imagine a day where SOSUS and DRAPES are augmented by arrays of neutrino detectors.
Then just use decoys, to confuse enemy about where your real forces are. In modern days, with drone ships available, you could create whole unmanned fleets designed to imitate signatures of warships.
Let's go further. Time to revitalize the ASWOCs. Sonobuoys and LWTs are vital, but we need the operational intelligence that the ASWOC gives you to properly employ those finite resources. The ASWOC also gives you the ability to prioritize, synchronize and direct surface, subsurface, air, cyber, and space assets for maximum operational effectiveness. This needs to be a Fleet priority
My PTSD kicked in when I read ASW. The ONE area of my SWO board that really shook me. The board expected me to remember the sonar equation! But that was the importance in the early 80s. Curious if we remember the tactics or if there are new ones. I sense we let this skill set slide as part of the peace dividend.
Some people use NL instead of AN, but they are in error.
Next, we will do the active sonar equation and multi-statics. If you have a circular slide rule handy, go ahead and get it out, as we have some exercises to conduct over the next half hour....
It's worth recalling that at the beginning of WWII, Adm. Doenitz had wanted several hundred U-boats in the inventory before the shooting started. He got about 50 or so of which half were open ocean boats. They still caused considerable trouble. The Chinese Doenitz may have what the German didn't.
They are starting to do solid advanced research of their own and produce very high quality products. The china share of the nature index (elite journals in hard science and engineering) has quadrupled over the last decade. "2022–2024: China overtook the US. In 2024, China had a 17% advantage (e.g., 37,273 vs. 31,930 articles). China's output grew ~95% from 2020–2024, vs. much slower US growth."
And it appears that CATL is, if not the most advanced battery manufacturer in the world, certainly one of the very best. And their factories are huge and very advanced.
The concept of China "stealing Western ideas" is outdated. They develope their own tech by now. Of course, they continue to monitor you - in case you got some new idea they didn't think about yet - but it's merely useful addition for them.
And speaking of LWTs... shouldn't we be looking at Mk.48s or at least closer in performance to one for surface ships? Something with more range to ease the pressure on ASROC supplies, since we don't seem to be realizing the Japanese load more per ship than we do for good reason.
The way now is to build or there’s no next to concern oneself with…
… speaking of concern the Chinese are far away, our problem with rebuilding is 20301 … we are our enemy the rest just opponents the only wakeup call we need.
So, I saw a brief from the CO at NAVO, he is trying to prep for the quantum computing and AI world wrt the environment, and widening the sound sensing delta between blue and red forces. I worry, however, the performance of models for ocean sound are trumpeted without substantiation. Met modeling is "easy" when compared to oceanographic. Atmospheric sensing and evaluating is a lot easier than the vast ocean environment, especially in contested environments. Then you get to the sensing tech itself, and the US resting on its laurels for a couple decades. Logistics matter, numbers matter, force density matters, and China is working that side for sure. The tech side, they steal, or take education more seriously. It is pathetic how unserious we are in the US about education. But hey, we have ratios and quotas to hit with a exponential growth in "the studies" majors with accompanying admin costs for education with no boon to society. So, there is that.
The last time there was a credible submarine launched over-the-horizon antishipping threat we had fixed wing ASW on the carriers. But the S-3 is long gone and only Seahawks remain. And there are only so many P-8s to go around.
Perhaps an ASW tilt rotor UAV, not limited to only the big-deck carriers, would be something to ask those new innovative defense companies to think about.
Needs to be vertical lift to fly off floaty things lacking a catapult, plus cruise speed and range to get out far before hovering to use dipping sonar. Maybe something from the new electric plane world would work, but a turboprop tiltrotor is known tech at this point, and IIRC there are several airborne clanker designs along those lines - a datalink, a dipping sonar, a few sonobuoys, and a lightweight torp and you give extra spicy heartburn to those PLAN sub skippers.
I defer to flight deck crews on smaller flight-deck-equipped combatants on practical WX condition limits for launch and recovery of something neutral-to-slightly-buoyant-in-air vs. a heavier than air vertical lift combat droid.
Old…very old ASWO here. When we made our 1986 Qingdao port call , across the harbor were a great number of old and rusting diesel boats. Somewhere I have a number of photos of that sight. Clearly, PLA-N is now a credible threat. The alarm is being sounded. Will it be heard? BZ to revitalizing ASWOCs. One of many necessary actions IMO
CDR Sal — I completed the ASWO course in September 1973. My mid-50s era destroyer had an Underwater Battery Fire Control System (UBFCS) which operated on mechanical dials, gears, and spinners.
Then some years in the 80s as Captain on T-AGOS ships.
A fictional futurist novel I read some years ago, "Ghost Fleet" (Adm Stavridis was a co-author) had a lot of hard science in it. One technological advance made it impossible for nuclear powered vessels to hide their location. This rendered our sub and carrier forces defenseless. Could Quantum computing do the same? Hard to protect a CVN if its location is a set of constantly updated DF2xx targeting firing solution coordinates. Asking for a friend...
Neutrino detectors continue to get smaller. The KM3NET is employing them on the bottom of the Med so that scientist can measure neutrino energies. It is easy to imagine a day where SOSUS and DRAPES are augmented by arrays of neutrino detectors.
Totally agree.
Then just use decoys, to confuse enemy about where your real forces are. In modern days, with drone ships available, you could create whole unmanned fleets designed to imitate signatures of warships.
Let's go further. Time to revitalize the ASWOCs. Sonobuoys and LWTs are vital, but we need the operational intelligence that the ASWOC gives you to properly employ those finite resources. The ASWOC also gives you the ability to prioritize, synchronize and direct surface, subsurface, air, cyber, and space assets for maximum operational effectiveness. This needs to be a Fleet priority
My PTSD kicked in when I read ASW. The ONE area of my SWO board that really shook me. The board expected me to remember the sonar equation! But that was the importance in the early 80s. Curious if we remember the tactics or if there are new ones. I sense we let this skill set slide as part of the peace dividend.
Because I'm a jerk:
SE = SL - TL - AN + DI - DT
Some people use NL instead of AN, but they are in error.
Next, we will do the active sonar equation and multi-statics. If you have a circular slide rule handy, go ahead and get it out, as we have some exercises to conduct over the next half hour....
"Some people use NL instead of AN, but they are in error."
Excellent
It's worth recalling that at the beginning of WWII, Adm. Doenitz had wanted several hundred U-boats in the inventory before the shooting started. He got about 50 or so of which half were open ocean boats. They still caused considerable trouble. The Chinese Doenitz may have what the German didn't.
And we don't have hunter/killer groups or Daniel Gallery's to counter them.
What concerns me is that the ChiComs have infiltrated and hold sway on American academia, media, business/tech and politics.
An alarming amount of tech we develop and adopt seems to be stolen or reengineered by China . When is that going to be curtailed?
The Middle Kingdom has the rare earth advantage and will probably win the AI race.
Make no mistake, no amount of tributes or kowtowing will satisfy them.
They are starting to do solid advanced research of their own and produce very high quality products. The china share of the nature index (elite journals in hard science and engineering) has quadrupled over the last decade. "2022–2024: China overtook the US. In 2024, China had a 17% advantage (e.g., 37,273 vs. 31,930 articles). China's output grew ~95% from 2020–2024, vs. much slower US growth."
And it appears that CATL is, if not the most advanced battery manufacturer in the world, certainly one of the very best. And their factories are huge and very advanced.
The concept of China "stealing Western ideas" is outdated. They develope their own tech by now. Of course, they continue to monitor you - in case you got some new idea they didn't think about yet - but it's merely useful addition for them.
And speaking of LWTs... shouldn't we be looking at Mk.48s or at least closer in performance to one for surface ships? Something with more range to ease the pressure on ASROC supplies, since we don't seem to be realizing the Japanese load more per ship than we do for good reason.
Yawn I’ll wake up for 2 way artillery otherwise it’s couch time.
The way now is to build or there’s no next to concern oneself with…
… speaking of concern the Chinese are far away, our problem with rebuilding is 20301 … we are our enemy the rest just opponents the only wakeup call we need.
Drumbeat and Happy Times Part Deux.
So, I saw a brief from the CO at NAVO, he is trying to prep for the quantum computing and AI world wrt the environment, and widening the sound sensing delta between blue and red forces. I worry, however, the performance of models for ocean sound are trumpeted without substantiation. Met modeling is "easy" when compared to oceanographic. Atmospheric sensing and evaluating is a lot easier than the vast ocean environment, especially in contested environments. Then you get to the sensing tech itself, and the US resting on its laurels for a couple decades. Logistics matter, numbers matter, force density matters, and China is working that side for sure. The tech side, they steal, or take education more seriously. It is pathetic how unserious we are in the US about education. But hey, we have ratios and quotas to hit with a exponential growth in "the studies" majors with accompanying admin costs for education with no boon to society. So, there is that.
The last time there was a credible submarine launched over-the-horizon antishipping threat we had fixed wing ASW on the carriers. But the S-3 is long gone and only Seahawks remain. And there are only so many P-8s to go around.
Perhaps an ASW tilt rotor UAV, not limited to only the big-deck carriers, would be something to ask those new innovative defense companies to think about.
2026 version of a DASH QH-50.
Needs to be vertical lift to fly off floaty things lacking a catapult, plus cruise speed and range to get out far before hovering to use dipping sonar. Maybe something from the new electric plane world would work, but a turboprop tiltrotor is known tech at this point, and IIRC there are several airborne clanker designs along those lines - a datalink, a dipping sonar, a few sonobuoys, and a lightweight torp and you give extra spicy heartburn to those PLAN sub skippers.
yep. modern LTA (not blimps, not dirigibles)
I defer to flight deck crews on smaller flight-deck-equipped combatants on practical WX condition limits for launch and recovery of something neutral-to-slightly-buoyant-in-air vs. a heavier than air vertical lift combat droid.
Old…very old ASWO here. When we made our 1986 Qingdao port call , across the harbor were a great number of old and rusting diesel boats. Somewhere I have a number of photos of that sight. Clearly, PLA-N is now a credible threat. The alarm is being sounded. Will it be heard? BZ to revitalizing ASWOCs. One of many necessary actions IMO
Low-cost anti-sub warfare: Run Silent, Run Cheap.
CDR Sal — I completed the ASWO course in September 1973. My mid-50s era destroyer had an Underwater Battery Fire Control System (UBFCS) which operated on mechanical dials, gears, and spinners.
Then some years in the 80s as Captain on T-AGOS ships.
Izzat good enuf? 😄
Joking aside Sal, you may feel like a voice crying in the wilderness but keep it up. Someone someday may take action.
The best time to plant a tree
was 20 years ago.
The second best time is now."
—Chinese proverb
When was the last CAPTOR purchased? How many have we in the magazines?
Alternately, how does the fusing on Quickstrike-ER do against subs?