Japan lost in WWII because they never developed a long range bomber. In addition, they had miscalculated what was actually in port at Pearl Harbor. No advanced scouting or spying.
DoD is part of the Iron Triangle, along with Congress and the Military Industrial Complex (TM). For DoD, the strategy, goals and objectives as it executes its mission of national defense exemplified by nuclear deterrence should be the easiest part of the defense budget to define. Critical so we can maintain sufficient capability to credibly threaten use of strategic weapons is their reliability and survivability...without which they are not a deterrent...at all. This requires honest study; not they type driven by profit hungry Military Industrial Complex (TM) companies selling "their" .ppt deep solution. To be honest, we're just not very good at that type of thing anymore. Given our current track record, we're a decade away from doing anything in this area.
Alexander Hamilton would beg to differ. Lie and cheat, the stock in trade of every nation; it is not limited to communist nations. Do you think France plays fair?
Communists are no different from Perfidious Albion. Every nation cheats.
Sure, but, "nothing is more essential than that permanent, inveterate antipathies against particular nations, and passionate attachments for others, should be excluded; and that, in place of them, just and amicable feelings towards all should be cultivated. The nation which indulges towards another a habitual hatred or a habitual fondness is in some degree a slave. It is a slave to its animosity or to its affection, either of which is sufficient to lead it astray from its duty and its interest."
As a contractor somewhat familiar with DOD conventional munitions production, I'm routinely shocked by the inability to surge or flex production.
Congress is most of the problem - you would think a second B21 line would be a no-brainer given the grift and money that can be scattered into every state and House district.
But I the problems I see are the contractors who are comfortable being the only (or maybe one of two) source(s) for a production item. Of course, they grossly under-quote to win the bid. But then lobbly to keep their contract going in spite of missed deadlines.
Their excuses are often howlers of economic illiteracy. There's no good workers they say (while offering 1.25x minimum wage). Raw materials are up they say. Well, if you don't properly hedge or quote material costs, ask for a contract re-negotioation. Or (better), declare bankruptcy to void the contract. THEN, resign so another management team, one that understands markets and arithmetic, can right the ship.
Good Morning CDR Salamander! Thank you for posting this good read!
China… China… China…
CDR Salamander you are spot on, as are several fellows who posted.
I like your 3% realistic allocation.
I also like your observation of the Chinese Upper Echelon who remain.
CDR Salamander, kindly observe how China moved this key person into the United Nations to repeat China’s so-called position of “Peaceful Use of Nuclear”.
USA awards United Nations positions for faithful service.
CDR Salamander, you are correct to cite about 50% of the Chinese Students Studying in America… Health…Technology…Computers…Physics… Space Programs…allow me to repeat: 50% of these Students have “Ties” to the CCP!
These “Ties” include Family, Debt, Real Estate Deals, Banking, and Ideology!
I’m glad you didn’t mention Buddhism, Hinduism, Taoism or Christianity because the Hari Krishna veils, the Smell of the burning sticks or candles, the sounds of the bells or symbols, the little Red wishes tied to limbs and … the Little Red Packets of monies given annually. Family - Ties in China are very “Strong”!
CDR Salamander, please observe the “Art of the Deal Dance”.
We don’t have to join YMCA!
We hold to our knowledge of History, Recent Events, and predictable occurrences!
CDR Salamander, our Department of War (DOW) will draft our Defense Policy.
I concur… Nuclear First Attack - probable , Intermediate Range Guided Missiles, Radar Electronic Detection and Jamming!
We, Midrats subscribers read from the same Posted Script.
CDR Salamander, you are the Lead!
Thank you! Very respectfully, Nurse Jane…
P.S. is there a “Chinese Laundry List”?
P.P.S. The Museums of America provide “Provenance” and People - “Experts”, therefore… Espionage is “Afoot”! Don’t you agree? Sherlock Holmes, Dr. Watson, Agatha … anyone concur?
"Four years ago, then Stratcom Commander Adm. Charles Richard publicly warned that it is more useful to watch what the Chinese are doing than what they were claiming."
Like many political statements, the truth is the opposite of what is claimed. Because the fact might provoke an undesirable response, the claim is created to deny the fact and prevent or slow the undesirable response.
If we judged people by what they do, instead of what they say, we would have an entirely different political class along with different educator class, and dare I say it, class of GOFO.
"China claims that it has a minimum deterrent, follows a no-first-use policy and uses nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. None of that is true. For the sake of peace, the United States should boost the credibility of its nuclear deterrence accordingly – and fast."
Yes - our China doves simply refuse to recognize the manifest truth that Communist China is in fact, first and foremost, Communist.
China is first and foremost China. With a lasting influence on Chinese law, Shang Yang's reforms transformed China from a peripheral power into a strongly centralized, militarily powerful kingdom, ultimately unifying China. Not a recent do, but concerning the hard discipline and militarism called for in Yang's crew in "The Book of the Lord Shang" from the 3rd century B.C. More pertinent at the moment still is the 1999 "two colonels" work translated as "Unrestricted Warfare" which is short on any CCP dogma, but long warfare in the age of globalization. "Their main argument: Warfare in the modern world will no longer be primarily a struggle defined by military means — or even involve the military at all. They were about a decade and a half before their time." (War on the Rocks, April 2016) It is arguable whether "Unrestricted Warfare" represents official. Chinese military doctrine. But in the age of the internet and the Internet of Things, cyber and financial warfare may be China's first strike capability while building a massive military, forcing the US to keep pace and spend accordingly. Financial warfare with the added benefit of a large fleet to hang around Southeast Asia exerting pressure without firing a shot (yet).
Well, “The Smartest People in the Room™” have collectively set such an extremely low bar, given their track record on recent wars without fizzy bits, that I would never, not ever, listen to those same think tankers and academes and diversity GOFOs on the topic of warfare with added fission.
I completely concur on the B-21 to 400 - the dual-use conventional missions will inevitably result in attrition, so building more of them than the minimum before kickoff is just common sense, and everyone knows the conventional mission demand will skyrocket when the B-52s (!) are no longer usable.
I do think that complicating the sleep of enemy targeters is laudable, so a land-based ICBM force as sacrificial anode is a reasonable concept, as would be building more silos than we have missiles, if the silos had not turned into gold plated luxury monstrosities - maybe they can build extra launch cell hatches and spread those around those bases for less than the crazy price we are paying for holes in the ground.
I also think rather than sinking money into stealth cruise missiles, hypersonic delivery systems that are sized to be carried by Pacific-theater-range stealthy UCAVs would make the PLA’s life really difficult. Even the so-called-hypersonic rooskie missiles regularly get through in Ukraine where the various subsonic cruise missiles get intercepted. Giving the PLA air defense people bad sleep is also a laudable goal.
There is momentum and a political commitment to shrinking the Corps over the next decade. Are we to believe that there is buy-in on keeping a MARDET on every SLCM-N capable ship? If there is not then the first port of call eliminates the ambiguity that will be reported through enemy spies.
China always felt with it's massive population it could absorb the damage of a US or RU strike with nukes. The US doesn't plan on using nukes, RU will use them.
breaking out of our bilateral Soviet weapons treaties is the top priority. I think we should send all CCP student spies home except perhaps the gender studies students.
not mentioned. turning off the funding spigot at USDA, DoD, NIH, NSF, ED, etc, for any collaboration with CCP Profs or universities. aka Wuhan.
Any grant proposal that mentions the CCP must be rejected and regs and contract clauses put in place to punish US colleges and entities for any post award connections
“The least shocking news on the planet: China lies.”
All governments—regardless of ideology—lie and otherwise manipulate reality to serve their interests. They do so to their citizens, allies, and enemies alike.
Well-argued, sensible, and should be adopted as national defense policy.
Japan lost in WWII because they never developed a long range bomber. In addition, they had miscalculated what was actually in port at Pearl Harbor. No advanced scouting or spying.
they had advanced scouting from HUMINT on the island, and I recall reading that they had knowledge that the carriers were not in harbor.
It apparently didn't get to the strike force though. Evidence that the 1st wave over Pearl was going to hit where they thought the carriers were
Boss, we still disagree on tactical nukes, but other than that, you're right on target.
DoD is part of the Iron Triangle, along with Congress and the Military Industrial Complex (TM). For DoD, the strategy, goals and objectives as it executes its mission of national defense exemplified by nuclear deterrence should be the easiest part of the defense budget to define. Critical so we can maintain sufficient capability to credibly threaten use of strategic weapons is their reliability and survivability...without which they are not a deterrent...at all. This requires honest study; not they type driven by profit hungry Military Industrial Complex (TM) companies selling "their" .ppt deep solution. To be honest, we're just not very good at that type of thing anymore. Given our current track record, we're a decade away from doing anything in this area.
Most important of all: End the CCP's asymmetry.
America protects all Americans.
Totalitarian mainland protects only its core cadre; millions of peasants dead mean nothing to them.
The only deterrence is threatening top 100,000 members of CCP, personal and up close.
Target their most secure hidey-holes. Build twice as many of the bunker-busters we used in Iran.
Lie and cheat, the stock in trade of every communist.
Alexander Hamilton would beg to differ. Lie and cheat, the stock in trade of every nation; it is not limited to communist nations. Do you think France plays fair?
Communists are no different from Perfidious Albion. Every nation cheats.
In geopolitics, everyone cheats. However, the article explicitly discusses the Chinese Communists.
Sure, but, "nothing is more essential than that permanent, inveterate antipathies against particular nations, and passionate attachments for others, should be excluded; and that, in place of them, just and amicable feelings towards all should be cultivated. The nation which indulges towards another a habitual hatred or a habitual fondness is in some degree a slave. It is a slave to its animosity or to its affection, either of which is sufficient to lead it astray from its duty and its interest."
As a contractor somewhat familiar with DOD conventional munitions production, I'm routinely shocked by the inability to surge or flex production.
Congress is most of the problem - you would think a second B21 line would be a no-brainer given the grift and money that can be scattered into every state and House district.
But I the problems I see are the contractors who are comfortable being the only (or maybe one of two) source(s) for a production item. Of course, they grossly under-quote to win the bid. But then lobbly to keep their contract going in spite of missed deadlines.
Their excuses are often howlers of economic illiteracy. There's no good workers they say (while offering 1.25x minimum wage). Raw materials are up they say. Well, if you don't properly hedge or quote material costs, ask for a contract re-negotioation. Or (better), declare bankruptcy to void the contract. THEN, resign so another management team, one that understands markets and arithmetic, can right the ship.
Good Morning CDR Salamander! Thank you for posting this good read!
China… China… China…
CDR Salamander you are spot on, as are several fellows who posted.
I like your 3% realistic allocation.
I also like your observation of the Chinese Upper Echelon who remain.
CDR Salamander, kindly observe how China moved this key person into the United Nations to repeat China’s so-called position of “Peaceful Use of Nuclear”.
USA awards United Nations positions for faithful service.
CDR Salamander, you are correct to cite about 50% of the Chinese Students Studying in America… Health…Technology…Computers…Physics… Space Programs…allow me to repeat: 50% of these Students have “Ties” to the CCP!
These “Ties” include Family, Debt, Real Estate Deals, Banking, and Ideology!
I’m glad you didn’t mention Buddhism, Hinduism, Taoism or Christianity because the Hari Krishna veils, the Smell of the burning sticks or candles, the sounds of the bells or symbols, the little Red wishes tied to limbs and … the Little Red Packets of monies given annually. Family - Ties in China are very “Strong”!
CDR Salamander, please observe the “Art of the Deal Dance”.
We don’t have to join YMCA!
We hold to our knowledge of History, Recent Events, and predictable occurrences!
CDR Salamander, our Department of War (DOW) will draft our Defense Policy.
I concur… Nuclear First Attack - probable , Intermediate Range Guided Missiles, Radar Electronic Detection and Jamming!
CDR Salamander, keep our Midrats Recommendations handy!
We, Midrats subscribers read from the same Posted Script.
CDR Salamander, you are the Lead!
Thank you! Very respectfully, Nurse Jane…
P.S. is there a “Chinese Laundry List”?
P.P.S. The Museums of America provide “Provenance” and People - “Experts”, therefore… Espionage is “Afoot”! Don’t you agree? Sherlock Holmes, Dr. Watson, Agatha … anyone concur?
"Four years ago, then Stratcom Commander Adm. Charles Richard publicly warned that it is more useful to watch what the Chinese are doing than what they were claiming."
Like many political statements, the truth is the opposite of what is claimed. Because the fact might provoke an undesirable response, the claim is created to deny the fact and prevent or slow the undesirable response.
If we judged people by what they do, instead of what they say, we would have an entirely different set of elected officials.
Tom,
If we judged people by what they do, instead of what they say, we would have an entirely different political class along with different educator class, and dare I say it, class of GOFO.
Listen to what they say, watch what they do, and follow the money. Simplistic, humint 101, but it almost always provides clarity.
"China claims that it has a minimum deterrent, follows a no-first-use policy and uses nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. None of that is true. For the sake of peace, the United States should boost the credibility of its nuclear deterrence accordingly – and fast."
Yes - our China doves simply refuse to recognize the manifest truth that Communist China is in fact, first and foremost, Communist.
China is first and foremost China. With a lasting influence on Chinese law, Shang Yang's reforms transformed China from a peripheral power into a strongly centralized, militarily powerful kingdom, ultimately unifying China. Not a recent do, but concerning the hard discipline and militarism called for in Yang's crew in "The Book of the Lord Shang" from the 3rd century B.C. More pertinent at the moment still is the 1999 "two colonels" work translated as "Unrestricted Warfare" which is short on any CCP dogma, but long warfare in the age of globalization. "Their main argument: Warfare in the modern world will no longer be primarily a struggle defined by military means — or even involve the military at all. They were about a decade and a half before their time." (War on the Rocks, April 2016) It is arguable whether "Unrestricted Warfare" represents official. Chinese military doctrine. But in the age of the internet and the Internet of Things, cyber and financial warfare may be China's first strike capability while building a massive military, forcing the US to keep pace and spend accordingly. Financial warfare with the added benefit of a large fleet to hang around Southeast Asia exerting pressure without firing a shot (yet).
Well, “The Smartest People in the Room™” have collectively set such an extremely low bar, given their track record on recent wars without fizzy bits, that I would never, not ever, listen to those same think tankers and academes and diversity GOFOs on the topic of warfare with added fission.
I completely concur on the B-21 to 400 - the dual-use conventional missions will inevitably result in attrition, so building more of them than the minimum before kickoff is just common sense, and everyone knows the conventional mission demand will skyrocket when the B-52s (!) are no longer usable.
I do think that complicating the sleep of enemy targeters is laudable, so a land-based ICBM force as sacrificial anode is a reasonable concept, as would be building more silos than we have missiles, if the silos had not turned into gold plated luxury monstrosities - maybe they can build extra launch cell hatches and spread those around those bases for less than the crazy price we are paying for holes in the ground.
I also think rather than sinking money into stealth cruise missiles, hypersonic delivery systems that are sized to be carried by Pacific-theater-range stealthy UCAVs would make the PLA’s life really difficult. Even the so-called-hypersonic rooskie missiles regularly get through in Ukraine where the various subsonic cruise missiles get intercepted. Giving the PLA air defense people bad sleep is also a laudable goal.
To be fair, it's a pretty small room ...
There is momentum and a political commitment to shrinking the Corps over the next decade. Are we to believe that there is buy-in on keeping a MARDET on every SLCM-N capable ship? If there is not then the first port of call eliminates the ambiguity that will be reported through enemy spies.
China always felt with it's massive population it could absorb the damage of a US or RU strike with nukes. The US doesn't plan on using nukes, RU will use them.
breaking out of our bilateral Soviet weapons treaties is the top priority. I think we should send all CCP student spies home except perhaps the gender studies students.
not mentioned. turning off the funding spigot at USDA, DoD, NIH, NSF, ED, etc, for any collaboration with CCP Profs or universities. aka Wuhan.
Any grant proposal that mentions the CCP must be rejected and regs and contract clauses put in place to punish US colleges and entities for any post award connections
“The least shocking news on the planet: China lies.”
All governments—regardless of ideology—lie and otherwise manipulate reality to serve their interests. They do so to their citizens, allies, and enemies alike.
More B-21s and -52s.