Is UAE Edging Back into the Yemen Conflict?

...or playing a longer game?

First of all, as with most things, we need to get a map. As we work our way there, let’s review some of the regional background of the conflict in Yemen. Starting in 2015, there was a Saudi led Arab coalition, with a large contingent from United Arab Emirates (UAE), that fought the Houthi rebels in northern Yemen for seven years until 2022.

The Houthi are still there, mostly left to their own devices by their fellow Arabs. We are all familiar of the threats they have posed in the Red Sea since October of 2023, mostly getting responses from U.S., European and Israeli forces.

Is that about to change?

The marker on the map is 500 nautical miles from the Houthi capital Sana’a and 800 nautical miles from Dubai in UAE. It is also, my friends, the Yemeni island of Abd al Kuri, west of the very special island of Socotra (which, BTW, is a central character in a rather fun novel by our friend Claude Berube).

There are some interesting developments reported by Jon Gambrell from AP on its northern shore:

As Yemen’s Houthi rebels continue to target ships in a Mideast waterway, satellite pictures analyzed by The Associated Press show what appears to be a new airstrip being built at an entrance to that crucial maritime route.

No country has publicly claimed the construction taking place on Abd al-Kuri Island, a stretch of land rising out of the Indian Ocean near the mouth of the Gulf of Aden. However, satellite images shot for the AP appear to show workers have spelled out “I LOVE UAE” with piles of dirt next to the runway, using an abbreviation for the United Arab Emirates.

You’ve got to love that English is the international language of satellite trolling.

Here’s a better pic of the primary airfield running due north that gives you an idea of the scale of it relative to the eastern half of the island.

You don’t need to have JPME II to understand the strategic location of that island relative to the southern approaches to the Red Sea and Suez Canal.

The runway, running north to south, measures some 3 kilometers (1.86 miles). A runway of that length can accommodate attack, surveillance and transport aircraft, even some of the heaviest bombers.

Construction initially could be seen in the area in January 2022, with a diagonal, shorter runway being carved out of the sand, according to Planet Labs imagery. The first signs of construction of the longer north-south runway were in July 2022, but work later halted.

This month, there’s been increased activity on Abd al-Kuri, including construction at the northern edge of the runway, close to the water, and the movement of heavy vehicles.

Nice divert field.

That works corresponds with a report last week by Abu Dhabi’s state-linked broadcaster Sky News Arabia, which claimed to quote an anonymous U.S. defense official as saying America had “strengthened our missile defenses on Socotra Island” in anticipation of the rebels attacking U.S. bases. Socotra is the main island of the Socotra chain, about 130 kilometers (80 miles) from Abd al-Kuri.

This is the second island airfield UAE has been working on recently in the area:

The airfield on Abd el-Kuri isn’t the first mysterious airstrip to begin construction amid Yemen’s war. In 2021, the AP reported that an airfield was being built on Mayun Island, also known as Perim Island, which sits in the narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait linking the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea.

Then, military officials with Yemen’s internationally recognized government, which the Saudi-led coalition has backed since 2015, said the UAE was building the runway. The Saudi-led coalition battling the Houthis later acknowledged having “equipment” on the island, while a militia leader and nephew of Yemen’s late strongman president Ali Abdullah Saleh acknowledged that his Emirati-backed troops were stationed there.

UAE finished that up in 2021.

This is the kind of thing the British Empire used to do at her prime, just on a more localized basis. It is clear as day if you know what to look for.

Is this part of “getting ready to do something” in Yemen should the time get right for UAE and her former allies, or is this simply a long-term quasi-imperialist opportunistic move by UAE?

Not too sure, but for good or ill, UAE is about to become even more of a critical player of keeping the sea lanes open in that part of the world—or closing them at her will—either on her own or whoever she invites to use her facilities. Whichever works.

Let’s keep UAE on our friends list.