123 Comments
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M. Thompson's avatar

Range! Range! Always should be a primary concern in a weapon system. We had a strike fighter path with long range sensors and extensive fuel fraction thirty years ago, that was just waiting for a buy request to start a program.

And yes, all “Confucius Institutes” and PRC student visas must be ended ASAP. There’s enough to assume there are goats hidden among the sheep, as well as information from the sheep.

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Sian's avatar

Outrange your adversary, significantly, and you have control of the entire conversation.

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Old Jarhead's avatar

The last number I saw was 40,000 military age Chinese males that came across the border during Biden. Those are all “got aways”. That’s about 2 divisions of troops.

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timactual's avatar

"Range! Range! Always should be a primary concern in a weapon system"

That's what the Japanese thought pre-WWII.

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Steel City's avatar

Unless I'm just getting caught up in the hoopla surrounding the success of Israeli operations to date, it appears Israel intelligence and operational planning and execution is world class, without peer.

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Aviation Sceptic's avatar

True dat. The "multiplicative factor" of precise intelligence, espionage, long term planning and humint combined with bold action (pager gate, decapitation strikes) and nuclear and ballistic missile capability targeting is next level performance. A nuclear weapon in the hands of Iran to be used by them or given to a proxy for use is existential for Israel...likely us as well, as we are after all "the Great Satan".

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Billy's avatar

Tactically brilliant, strategically, we'll see.

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Ed's avatar

Mackinder is winning! Nothing left for Mahan.

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Wharf Rat's avatar

Wow. I’m a military enthusiast. I know very little about tactics.

To assume we have enemy tactical teams in the US is smart. To not have a strategy to ‘resolve’ and respond would be silly.

Especially after watching military age men come across the border en masse during the Biden administration.

I’ll say it - whoever was actually running the Biden administration is guilty of being the most lawless administration in our nation’s history.

They absolutely worked to destroy our nation from within

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Pete's avatar

I think Biden overtook Jimmy Carter as the worst president in our history.

Thank you, deep state for installing a corrupt decrepit dotard in the Oval Office and for the subsequent wars and millions of illegal aliens.

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Alan Gideon's avatar

Especially worrying was the fact that the Border Partol caught a known Islamic terrorist and were instructed to let him go free, since he will show up for his hearing, don't you know. If one was caught, another hundred weren't.

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Hana C. Waumbek's avatar

The enemy has been at US schools for at least 4 decades if not more. When General Electric (a division that is now part of Lockheed Martin) sent employees to engineering grad school in the 80's, employees received security briefings on how to deal with foreign students.

And: naturalized citizens are allowed to get TS (or equivalent) clearances - was not allowed way back, unless someone had a rare skill. People do quit and return to their country of origin, even without (possibly) spying.

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BRetty's avatar

An MIT alum and Nuclear Engineering PhD wrote a caustic letter to the MIT administration a few months ago. He related that he had shared an office with an Iranian graduate student who was well below standards, the administration bent over backwards to accomodate him (like letting him take his qualies three times, absolutely un-heard-of), and they did so because somebody was paying them >$100,000/yr for the six years it took him to get his PhD. (Our correspondent finished in the conventional three years)

He also bluntly stated he was sure that MIT had educated scientists who were working on Iran's atomic bomb program.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/04/dear-president-kornbluth-mit-alum-responds.php

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OrwellWasRight's avatar

"The enemy has been at US schools for at least 4 decades"

and that's just the foreign students, not the teachers.

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OrwellWasRight's avatar

They were installed to destroy our nation from within

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Byron King's avatar

Great summary, CDR Sal. No such thing as "operational depth" anymore. Tyranny of time-distance is deposed & broken by electromagnetics and speed of mass, certainly above M3 and into M5+ hypersonics. If you can be ID'ed and located on a grid, you are a target.

Meanwhile... All military power is first derivative of energy & industrial power. And industry is the sum of supply chains, from oil wells & wellheads to mines, mills, refineries, Tier III/II/I builders. All of which require particular skill sets in the heads & hands of educated citizens. And this means that USA can no longer afford the luxury of entire school districts which fail to deliver work-ready 18 yr olds.

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Aviation Sceptic's avatar

Well said. WW II comes to mind. We are on the German / Japanese side of the production equation this time. Should war come, we better win quick.

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Jon's avatar

Imitating the performance of WW2 exquisite German overengineering combined with WW2 Japanese failure to produce is not a winning combination.

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Pete's avatar

China's long march back from the Cultural Revolution to being an economic powerhouse began with education.

Out went the Gang of Four and Mao's Little Red Book and the rest is history.

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Alan Gideon's avatar

I tried to pick out which of the words of your second paragraph I wanted to emphasize, but could not. This is the anthem that should be belted out throughout the country. When (not if) CONUS is hit, or when PACFLT disappears as a functional fighting force, we will see the Little Red Hen story played out lound and strong, with no one *anywhere* admitting that they were/are part of the problem. Good people will die because people I would really, really like to slap into consciousness have pursued their own agendas instead of doing their jobs.

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Quartermaster's avatar

I want to do far more than just slap them.

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Alan Gideon's avatar

I'm trying to follow TR's rule about speaking and carrying.

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Pete's avatar

I suspect the Israelis are prioritizing their airfields and military infrastructure when it comes to destroying incoming missiles much like the British did with the Luftwaffe during the blitz.

So, we can expect to see some horrific scenes as Iranian ballistic missiles land in residential areas.

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Jonathan Lipps's avatar

“Here’s our future. Plan for it.”

Well said, good sir! The sanctity and bastion previously enjoyed by providence is negated by physics and an adversary’s conventional missile procurement. As Iran is reinforcing what was previously demonstrated over the skies of London, the reentry vehicle doesn’t necessarily need to be a physics package to have lethal effects. Imagine the sounds of air raid sirens in LA, NY, Houston, Chicago, or Boston…

As I reference elsewhere, conventional missiles and drones are the naval mines or IEDs of the air domain…and like those aforementioned weapons are here to stay! We can no longer afford the hubris or (ironically) temerity for a dependence on geography or promise of mushroom clouds as a credible defense.

Godspeed and Good Hunting, Always

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The Drill SGT's avatar

nukes delivered by container ship don't have to be miniaturized, hardened or G resistant

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LT NEMO's avatar

Only quibble:

No air raid sirens in most US cities. Certainly not LA, NY, Chicago, or Boston, Houston may have them for tornado warnings.

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Sandy Daze's avatar

I live in a small south-central Michigan town, population ~8,500, entire country ~40,000.

We've got a siren, which is tested every week, because of the great mid-west Palm Sunday tornado, 11 April 1965.

Many small Midwest towns still have sirens.

I'm sure it can be adapted for air raids.

As if...🤪

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Jetcal1's avatar

Interesting times. What will Iran's final act of defiance be?

The strait is still open, and they claim to have operatives in the US. Neither COA will save them.

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Brettbaker's avatar

Depending on how hard the Israelis hit their oil export capacity? "Fuck the Arabs". Take out as much Saudi, Kuwaiti, and UAE transport/refining capacity.

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Jetcal1's avatar

Not sure that's a reasonable CoA.

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M. Thompson's avatar

They’re apocalyptic theocrats. “Reasonable” for them may not be congruent with our definitions.

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Thomas's avatar

Israelis seem to be doing well killing Iranian command on their own, no need for the US to get involved (other than paying for it as usual) or escalate.

The question of whether Trump green-lighted this is unclear. The WSJ said no, Netanyahu ignored Trump's request to let the talks go forward. If so, stunning contumaciousness by "our greatest ally."

China and Russia will be happy to bleed US weapons stocks and maybe US blood.

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Jetcal1's avatar

"other than paying for it as usual."

Well, we certainly seem to be getting a better value from the Israelis than we are from Progressives in their war on poverty and management of public schools. Perhaps we should contract those services to Israel.

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Jerome Busch's avatar

Perhaps we should stick to the subject at hand rather than the usual knee-jerk condemnation of Progressives (read Democrats).

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LT NEMO's avatar

I think Jetcal1 was using a metaphor for "Well, yeah."

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Jetcal1's avatar

Well, that's partially true. I forgot how effectively the Iranian made use of the pallets of cash sent by the Democrats.

That money undoubtedly got a lot of bang for the buck.

I stand corrected. Perhaps we can offer the Ayatollah asylum in exchange for fixing blue city problems.

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Thomas's avatar

Remember, you're paying for Israelis' free health care and your own US health insurance too.

When the Chinese occupy Guam, it will all be worth it because the Israelis got Gaza.

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Jetcal1's avatar

Estimated annual cost to taxpayers of illegal in the US $111 billion dollars. Including free health care.

Annual cost to taxpayers of aid to Israel $4 billion dollars. Including free health care.

Perhaps we should contract health care to the Israelis.

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Jerome Busch's avatar

Once the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran was completed, U.S. law as implemented by OFAC mandated that the blocked funds in special separate accounts be returned to Iran along with the interest those separate accounts earned. No US funds were involved. Read the document, know the law. The only surprise is that you didn't somehow squeeze Soros into the reply.

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billrla's avatar

Israel is buying itself more time while revealing the future to the rest of the world. The rest of the world is running out of time.

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Billy's avatar

You have it backwards: the rest of the world will not submit, and the West does not have the power to submit them.

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timactual's avatar

Western Europe is in the process of submitting. Another twenty years and the process will be complete. The rest of the world may take a bit longer, but Allah is patient, he has already waited 1500 years.

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Billy's avatar

"You have clocks, we have time" Bahrainis, all the time.

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Flight-ER-Doc's avatar

The ayatollahs are begging someone to intervene with the US, to negotiate an end

Sorry: You don't get to start a war, lose it, and then claim to be the victims.

Now, the world has been tolerating this bullcrap since 1979. Time, and past time.....to END it.

While the US is morally, and even legally (under the joke that is 'international law' in fighting a war against Iran (invading an embassy is a defacto, and de jour, act of war), the Israelis are doing fine. Perhaps we should arrange for a truckload of bunker-busters get lost in Haifa....but that's about it.

The only boots on the ground in Tehran should be Iranian: Not Israeli, not US. If the Iranian PEOPLE want to have the benefits of civilization (running water, electricity, sewage systems, a lack of radioactive contamination) they should deal with their government. They would do better with actual firearms, but a rock will do just as well.

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The Drill SGT's avatar

even with bunker busters, you need a delivery method. We use a B2 for the 30k weapons. I understand that using a C130 creates some interesting porpoising

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Thomas's avatar

It's well documented the Iranians made an offer of peace after 9/11 and even assisted US efforts in Afghanistan.

Look up the histories of Hilary and Flynt Leverett who were on the NSC staff, and what Amb. James Dobbins and Amb. Ryan Crocker, my former boss have said.

This thesis written by an FBI agent studying at Command and General Staff course is a good summary of the history

https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA587314.pdf (pdf)

They were completely rebuffed by the Bush administration, and Crocker said that the "Axis of Evil" speech on Jan 29, 2002 caused the Iranians to pull back cooperation.

Neocon arrogance at the time - the quote was "Everyone wants to go to Baghdad, real men want to go to Tehran."

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Flight-ER-Doc's avatar

Why the hell would any rational person trust the Iranian regime about anything?

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Thomas's avatar

Why the hell would you trust the Israelis?

Lavon affair 1954 Israeli false flag bombings of US diplomatic posts in Egypt

USS Liberty 1967

Pollard - Israelis passed his material to Soviets

More recent transfer of weapons tech to China

and when are we going to see those Epstein files?

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Pete's avatar

Thomas. Why do you hate Jews so much?

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Thomas's avatar

That stuff has expired, Pete. Americans don't buy it anymore.

https://x.com/alexandrosM/status/1934153526726570424?t=DIkxLO3FLtbsY2PDInSbSA&s=19

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Pete's avatar

You fool no one

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Pete's avatar

You fool no one.

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timactual's avatar

"Why the hell would you trust the Israelis?"

"The enemy of my enemy is my friend."

Trust? I trust Israel to look out for its own interests, which happen to coincide with ours in this case. I trust Iran to follow the instructions of its religion and its Constitution and work to establish a worldwide Caliphate by conquering or converting kaffirs.

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Thomas's avatar

Aside from that, the USA and Iran fought together twice since 9/11: in Afghanistan 2001-02 against the Taliban and in Mosul against ISIS.

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Billy's avatar

They shot first?

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timactual's avatar

" You don't get to start a war, lose it, and then claim to be the victims"

Why not? It seems to be working pretty well for Hamas & the Gazans.

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Flight-ER-Doc's avatar

It has worked in the past. It's not working now. Israel is going through Gaza with a fine sieve rooting out Hamas terrorists and their constructs. Further, the peaceable Gazans are tired of their shit too: Are turning them in to the Israelis.

And the reason it worked in the past is because the West fell for it. The suffering of the arabs in Gaza and the west bank: The suffering has been caused by the terrorists...

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Mike Brogley's avatar

These saturation ballistic missile launch tactics should be causing nightmares for the decision makers responsible for “don’t make the U.S. BMD too capable so we don’t upset the Russians” and “we don’t need to reload VLS cells at sea” and “but Patriots are so expensive”.

They should but I am sure they are not. The think tankers sleep soundly.

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Quartermaster's avatar

As long as the checks are good and keep coming, the Think Tankers will continue to enjoy their naps.

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Billy's avatar

The whole "reload at sea" thing is a joke. What are we reloading with?

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Lazarus's avatar

Israeli success and Iranian failure also says something about the inability of autocratic states to exercise innovative military actions beyond their first salvo, something carefully rehearsed and approved by autocratic leaders. If/when things so south, who is able to speak truth to the autocratic leader to change the operational situation? Almost always, no one, as the leader's personal reputation is directly connected to military success or failure. Iranian religious leaders seem paralyzed by the kind of innovative Israeli action that only comes from a vibrant, democratic state where military success and failure are a national, and not a personal leadership issue.

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Quartermaster's avatar

IIRC, Iran and Russia have a mutual defense treaty. Putin, however, is more interested in conquering Ukraine than it is in helping Iran. That is not going to last.

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LT NEMO's avatar

Maybe they do. But both are too busy to help the other right now and that benefits both Israel and Ukraine.

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Quartermaster's avatar

Not so much Ukraine. Production of the drones that Iran supplied has been moved to Russia under license.

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LT NEMO's avatar

I have seen that. As well as the Russians simplified the Shaheds.

But, should they need more fast, like something unfortunate happened in the factory, then Iran could be a source.

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Quartermaster's avatar

The Ukrainians did hit the factory in Russia. How much it impedes production is the question. It is unlikely they will get more from Iran given what Iran finds itself in now.

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Jetcal1's avatar

North Korea as well.

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Quartermaster's avatar

Hadn't heard about the NorKs doing it too.

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Billy's avatar

More likely they're staying out of it unless the US gets involved first hand.

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Quartermaster's avatar

I think Putin does want to stay out. However, it won't last. As Ezekiel 38 and 39 tells us, "I will put hooks in his jaw...." He is going whether he likes it or not.

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Billy's avatar

Careful what you wish for.

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Quartermaster's avatar

It's not a matter of what I wish for. God has simply said what will happen.

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Billy's avatar

Oh, we're doing crazy now. So,

And if that's what you have in mind

Yeah, if that's what you're all about

Good luck movin' up

'Cause I'm moving out

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Pete's avatar

Good riddance.

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Quartermaster's avatar

Buh bye!

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Michael Franken's avatar

Those 'military men of age' are your chefs, construction workers, medical care techs, and farmers...

The 'shooters' in our society are people born and raised here, at a far higher percentage of the population than undocumented individuals or even first generation citizens. This in indisputable.

Funny, when my wife asked who'd do such a thing as dress in police garb to shoot politicians, I replied, "A 58YO white guy, slightly overweight, avid churchgoer, closet lifestyle with scant friends, often unemployed or on society's fringe...and a gun nut." I didn't get the age right.

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ReadingRainbow's avatar

You’re a moron. You’re talking about a grain of sand on the beach and ignoring the waves.

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Jetcal1's avatar

"Those 'military men of age' are your chefs, construction workers, medical care techs, and farmers..."

Well durh! Everyone needs to support themselves until called.

"The 'shooters' in our society are people born and raised here, at a far higher percentage of the population than undocumented individuals or even first generation citizens. This in indisputable."

Perhaps because there's more of natural born citizens.

"A 58YO white guy, slightly overweight, avid churchgoer, closet lifestyle with scant friends, often unemployed or on society's fringe...and a gun nut." I didn't get the age right."

How prescient. You should

1. Buy a lottery ticket.

2. Move to Baltimore or St. Louis to feel safer.

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Pete's avatar

Why do leftists always say “undocumented” and never “illegal aliens?”

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Warmek's avatar

Because they're incapable of speaking truth.

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Pete's avatar

Huh?

The Boston bombers. The 911 hijackers. Etc.

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Wray Johnson's avatar

Re: "While on the ground the defensive is on the ascendancy, in the aerospace domain, the offensive reigns supreme." As a retired USAF airman I have to say something: Didn't Douhet say something like that in his book? I'm not trying to be flippant. This has been a point of contention since the end of the First World War. And yet here we have a former naval officer making the same claim.

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Ed's avatar

In place of ground put “at sea” and put “not” in front of ascendancy.

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Wray Johnson's avatar

In my view, airpower theory is rooted in seapower theory. You can replace "sea" with "air" in the writings of Mahan and Corbett and they still make perfect sense. And, of course, since the time of Clausewitz, the defense has always been regarded as the "stronger" (not superior) form of war. Truth is, again in my opinion, choosing between offense and defense, it depends on the circumstances and what one hopes to achieve.

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