I'm rather dismayed over today's events in Russia. Not because I love them, but because the chance for peace has ended for now. I don't know what comes next, but I cannot think of a positive outcome for the US.
The drone attack on the air bases will have no impact on the basic course of the war towards an eventual Russian victory, however long that takes and however large is the ultimate price in blood and treasure on both sides of the conflict.
This war is being driven by forces of powerful political and cultural nationalism on both sides of the Ukraine-Russia border.
Russia now has an army three times larger than it was at the start of the conflict, and it continues to expand. The current Russian leadership has the support of Russia's citizenry, which is inclined to suffer the consequences of the war in defense of their nationalistic aspirations.
We will not be seeing a diplomatic solution to this war.
Putin and his senior Russian leadership know that if they accept terms which are anything less than the ones they've been offering in the past, they will be quickly replaced by new Russian leadership which has no qualms about doing whatever it takes to gain a Russian victory. Zelensky and his EU/NATO backers will not accept Russia's terms for a settlement.
The war will continue until Ukraine's defenses have been reduced to a point where a quick Russian breakout becomes feasible at a cost in lives and equipment which is acceptable to the senior Russian leadership.
When that point is eventually reached, Russia will take everything east of the Dnieper River plus Odessa. If Ukraine still doesn't cave and accept Russia's terms for a settlement, Russia will then take the remainder of the country regardless of the cost.
Parking military aircraft out in the open has to stop. No idea how much it will cost to build even simple hangers let alone ones that are hardened to withstand attack, but they have to be built.
Because, with the possible exception of remote bases like Diego Garcia, every airbase can have a container of drones launch from a mile or two (or 10) away and no realistic way to detect them before launch
Of course a) we should have known about this possibility from the wars in Syria a decade or so ago and b) this doesn't just apply to the US it also 100% applies to both Taiwan and West Taiwan.
Regarding the latter. Not even the Chicoms can hope to inspect every container that arrives in their ports, not can they possibly track them reliably. Nor can they inspect them far enough away from sensitive military bases to stop attacks.
Sparta had no city wall. Yes, we need a strategy and means for a defense in depth that includes securing airfields and their assets. I am not certain shelters will prove to be the prudent response.
I don't know whether shelters are the most prudent response. For sure they need to be combined with other responses. Dispersal would obviously help. As will a willingness to deploy dozens of automated AA guns around bases and so on.
I'm rather dismayed over today's events in Russia. Not because I love them, but because the chance for peace has ended for now. I don't know what comes next, but I cannot think of a positive outcome for the US.
The drone attack on the air bases will have no impact on the basic course of the war towards an eventual Russian victory, however long that takes and however large is the ultimate price in blood and treasure on both sides of the conflict.
This war is being driven by forces of powerful political and cultural nationalism on both sides of the Ukraine-Russia border.
Russia now has an army three times larger than it was at the start of the conflict, and it continues to expand. The current Russian leadership has the support of Russia's citizenry, which is inclined to suffer the consequences of the war in defense of their nationalistic aspirations.
We will not be seeing a diplomatic solution to this war.
Putin and his senior Russian leadership know that if they accept terms which are anything less than the ones they've been offering in the past, they will be quickly replaced by new Russian leadership which has no qualms about doing whatever it takes to gain a Russian victory. Zelensky and his EU/NATO backers will not accept Russia's terms for a settlement.
The war will continue until Ukraine's defenses have been reduced to a point where a quick Russian breakout becomes feasible at a cost in lives and equipment which is acceptable to the senior Russian leadership.
When that point is eventually reached, Russia will take everything east of the Dnieper River plus Odessa. If Ukraine still doesn't cave and accept Russia's terms for a settlement, Russia will then take the remainder of the country regardless of the cost.
In regards the Ukraine drone attack
https://xcancel.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1929147704141119911#m or https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1929147704141119911
Parking military aircraft out in the open has to stop. No idea how much it will cost to build even simple hangers let alone ones that are hardened to withstand attack, but they have to be built.
Because, with the possible exception of remote bases like Diego Garcia, every airbase can have a container of drones launch from a mile or two (or 10) away and no realistic way to detect them before launch
Of course a) we should have known about this possibility from the wars in Syria a decade or so ago and b) this doesn't just apply to the US it also 100% applies to both Taiwan and West Taiwan.
Regarding the latter. Not even the Chicoms can hope to inspect every container that arrives in their ports, not can they possibly track them reliably. Nor can they inspect them far enough away from sensitive military bases to stop attacks.
Sparta had no city wall. Yes, we need a strategy and means for a defense in depth that includes securing airfields and their assets. I am not certain shelters will prove to be the prudent response.
I don't know whether shelters are the most prudent response. For sure they need to be combined with other responses. Dispersal would obviously help. As will a willingness to deploy dozens of automated AA guns around bases and so on.
The Ukraine vs Russia will be the new Palestine vs Israel a war that will never go away.
It will heat up, people will die and then it will cool off. We need to back off and let one or the other end it decisively.