Keeping an Eye on the Long Game: Part CII
two paths. choose wisely
Earlier this fall, we highlighted Admiral Paparo's sound leadership. He remains one of the most effective leaders in openly addressing the serious challenges posed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
At this week’s Reagan National Defense Forum, we have more from Admiral Paparo that is worth your time.
What stands out even more is the stark contrast to a mindset and public posture our senior leaders should avoid. It is a mindset that is outdated, dangerous, and is inviting failure. What may sound in a receptive audience as cheerful bluster sounds to everyone else as overconfidence from a military that has spent the last 30+ years tripping over failure and sub-optimal outcomes in its wars of choice.
In this case, the disconnected posturing it is from the Commandant of the Marine Corps, General Eric Smith
Let’s start with Paparo at the 25:10 mark, that is then followed by Smith’s comments at the 28:55 mark.
“The advantage lies with us, because our last combat was captured on somebody’s iPhone14. The Chinese last combat was captured on oil and canvas, and they should not forget that.”
- General Eric Smith, USMC
There is so much wrong here, I don’t know where to start but to bring over some of my reactions this AM on X.
The attitude and coping that is demonstrated by downplaying the very real challenge of China in 2025 is a large part of the reason we find ourselves where we are. No more excuses. No more alternative reality sweet little untruths in each other's ears.
The PRC of 2025 is not your PRC of 1994 or even 2004 when we started the Long Game series.
This is the reality.
We no longer have the luxury of onanistic and unwarranted arrogance towards the PRC by people who should know better. Military history is littered with leaders who were fooled by their un-earned self-importance, puffed up by the hard work and glory of previous generations, only to find themselves dead on the field, like General Pavel Nikolayevich Shatilov in exile, or awash in the humiliation in a ruined nation.
While our company and field grade officers who led the tactical fight the last quarter century can be a bit proud and boastful of their performance against illiterate Pashtuns and poorly led Arab conscripts, absolutely no American General or Flag Officer has any room to be as boastful or arrogant like this towards the world’s largest Navy, second-largest economy, and a nation with four times our population.
Also, that iPhone 14? It is made in India. Use of that iPhone 14 on the battlefield will get you and those with you killed.
When discussing the challenge of the PRC in the western Pacific, our leaders must emulate the seriousness and clarity of Admiral Paparo, not the overconfidence displayed by General Smith.
I think Chesty Puller would like to have a word with GEN Smith in regards to Chinese combat experience against deployed US Marines.
Yes, ADM Paparo's comments are illustrative of his acknowledgement that the Chinese CCP leadership has the military capability to initiate an attack, either against Taiwan, or for that matter Guam. He is also excellent at hiding his fear of a full on military confrontation with the Chinese Navy. Yes, numbers matter. But even more so geographic reality matters more. While the US has a sizeable Navy, it is scattered about the world, not available to engage the Chinese. The entire Chinese military capability is arrayed along their Pacific coast. Our 'available' military force is the 7th Fleet, the 13th Air Force, some pockets of Marines, and a US Army primarily concentrated in one large military base in South Korea. Yes, we can surge Air Force bombers and maybe some Hawaiian and west coast based Naval assets. But the Chinese can literally bomb our airfields, naval bases, and other military facilities in an instant of an hour with hundreds of coastal batteries launching hundreds of missiles. The Marine Commandant's comments are idiotic bluster to reassure the US population that we have everything in hand. If the Chinese goal is to take possession of the western Pacific islands, they have that ability and capability right now. But wait, there's more! They continue to build military assets faster than their recruiting goals can man them. Every month we theorize this military conflict the outcome gets worse, not better. No, we won't go nuclear (nor will the Chinese). But we do not have a 'doomsday' machine that was inferred in the 1964 Peter Sellers movie, 'Dr. Strangelove...'. Our intelligence gathering can detect their logistical war preparations. But so what? We are at about the max readiness for our military in the western pacific now. The only thing our intel warnings will do is to spark diplomatic engagement with China. And that will fail as it has so far. End of story.
r/Karl