Keeping an Eye on the Long Game: Part C

that's C as in Roman Numeral "C" - look it up, peasant

Our friend Mackenzie Eaglen over at AEI just put out a study, Keeping Up with the Pacing Threat: Unveiling the True Size of Beijing’s Military Spending, that everyone needs to read for themselves, and then forward on to people they know who have yet to get religion on what is facing us west of the International Date Line.

Beijing’s true military spending should be cause for concern, as the American public is too often put at ease by the erroneous assertion that the US is ahead of its adversaries on military spending and investments. In just the past decade, however, China has managed to rapidly build sophisticated missile forces, surpass the United States by building the largest navy in the world, and catch up to and even exceed the United States in many other key national security areas.57 By calculating the true buying power behind the Chinese military budget, it’s easy to understand how Beijing can continue this unprecedented military buildup while, on paper, appearing to spend much less.

Furthermore, China’s military spending has increased consistently, at an average of 9 percent, for the past 28 years.58 Annually, Beijing pushes high single- or double-digit increases to defense spending to fuel rapid military modernization. Meanwhile, the Pentagon’s budget has increased by an average of 0.8 percent annually over the past decade, well under the rate of annual inflation.59

While this report provides only a rough estimate of the real buying power of China’s military budget, accuracy is difficult with what little information is available from China. Getting a clear bottom-line estimate is further complicated by Beijing’s policy of military- civil fusion.60 For example, China has created armed reserve forces of civilians, such as the People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM), which can quickly mobilize in conflict.61 Beijing also mandates its domestic commercial ships be built with certain military specifications to augment the Chinese fleet during a potential war.62

Expenditures on fused initiatives such as these should be counted in Beijing’s topline, but no public figures exist to calculate an estimate. If fully evaluated, Beijing’s expenditures via military-civil fusion and dual-use technology investments prove even the much larger $711 billion figure underestimates China’s military investments.

To add to their investment, keep in mind as well that so far this century, the PRC has avoided involving itself in far-away, decades-long imperial policing actions that ended at best a draw, and in more than one case, outright defeat. It has not spent money supporting other people’s wars and subsidizing dependent client states’ military security.

No, instead she has grown her economy, expanded her influence, strip-mined through espionage industrial secrets, accumulating a treasure trove of Western intellectual capital, and taken careful notes on how their opponents plan to fight should war come.

The question shouldn’t be if you respect the PRC’s strength that they’ve developed over the last quarter century, but rather if you respect it enough.

…and yes, I have a nit to pick with the use of “pacing threat” but no one is 100% perfect. We’ll give Mackenzie 98.7%.