Next Chapter in the Iran Conflict Opens: Operation Freedom
...sea control...
This week, we start another chapter in the Iran conflict. Might as well start with the primary source.
What does this actually operationalize into? Let’s see how CENTCOM outlines it.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin supporting Project Freedom, May 4, to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The mission, directed by the President, will support merchant vessels seeking to freely transit through the essential international trade corridor. A quarter of the world’s oil trade at sea and significant volumes of fuel and fertilizer products are transported through the strait.
“Our support for this defensive mission is essential to regional security and the global economy as we also maintain the naval blockade,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander.
Last week, the U.S. Department of State announced a new initiative, in partnership with the Department of War, to enhance coordination and information sharing among international partners in support of maritime security in the strait. The Maritime Freedom Construct aims to combine diplomatic action with military coordination, which will be critical during Project Freedom.
U.S. military support to Project Freedom will include guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members.
Using the UN’s numbers, there are 20,000 mariners and 2,000 ships stuck inside the Persian Gulf.
In a solid summary from Sunday night in the NYT,
Mr. Trump’s announcement was essentially a challenge to Iran, and a bet that it would not want to take the risk of firing the first shots — or laying mines — in a challenge to the United States. He said nothing about lifting the American blockade on all shipping in and out of Iranian ports.
If the move works, it could flip the script on the current dual blockades — one run by the Iranians, the other by the United States. But it could also lead to a breach in the current cease-fire if Iran sought to try to intercept shipping or challenge the American effort.
We will see what happens once we start doing this.
By “we”, I mean the United States as it appears that the rest of the international community is more than happy to let Iran close the strait to international traffic.
In essence, what we state we are doing is “forcing the strait” folded in with the escort of the commercial ships which are willing to make the Hormuz version of the Kessel Run with us.
Off the top of my head, I’m going to make a few initial assumptions:
We are confident we have a mine-free area to make the passage.
We already have a list of ships willing to make the run.
We are betting that the overwhelming show of force will keep the IRGC’s head down.
Assumption #3…that’s the tricky bit and we’ll see during the course of the day how much Iran wants to keep the strait closed.
As reported by the BBC this Monday AM,
Oil prices spiked sharply in response to reports from Iranian state media that two missiles hit a US warship as it tried to enter the Strait of Hormuz.
The Brent crude benchmark price soared by more than $4 per barrel within minutes of the news breaking, to hit $114, more than 5% up on the day’s opening price.
It fell back slightly after the US denied the strike took place.
…
Fars Plus, an outlet associated with Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency, has published two voice notes attributed to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
In them, warnings are issued in Persian and English to vessels in the Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Sea of Oman saying the Strait “remains closed”.
I’ve listened in and this is what the messages say:
“This is a serious warning from the naval forces of the IRGC. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and passage through it without the permission of the Islamic Republic of Iran and outside the designated route is prohibited.
“If any vessel passes without permission at longitude 56°00′ East in the Persian Gulf and latitude 25°40′ North in the Sea of Oman, it will be struck and destroyed.”
…
The United Arab Emirates says a tanker affiliated with Adnoc, its state-owned oil company, has been hit in the Strait of Hormuz.
No one has been injured, the country’s foreign ministry says in a statement, adding:
….
The UAE has called for Iran to stop the attack and “ensure its full commitment to an immediate cessation of all hostilities, and the complete and unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz”.
Via The Economist…this is why Hormuz and her sisters will always matter…and are worth fighting for.
It’s time to finish off the Islamic Republic once and for all.
I understand that the president is a businessman and he doesn’t want to see infrastructure destroyed let alone allow 90 million people to become destitute and he would prefer a peace full resolution.
However he is dealing with religious fanatics who will fight to the bitter end and will take everything and everyone along with them in their desire for martyrdom and paradise. They see any hesitation on our part as weaknesses to be exploited. Khomeini once said Iran is nothing but Islam is everything.
The president should channel his inner Churchill and Reagan and tell the American people that our aim was to put an end to this evil regime. Higher gas prices are a pittance compared to an atomic bomb in LA or NYC.
Interesting question: since this proclamation—as you say—appears to have been issued by the IRGC, which is neither a sovereign state nor a recognized government…surely any action they take is—under black-letter international law—piracy?
I mean…if one of the drug cartels announced their intent to keep the US out of the Caribbean…wouldn’t we treat them as pirates?
And if my view is correct…would the US not be altogether justified in eradicating any assets—military or civilian—the IRGC might use in furtherance of their declaratory purposes?