Not Your Grandfather's Philippines

a nation on the rise

As I pointed out Monday in my post on Japan - 1991 was a big year in Asia, but a lot of the changes there were overshadowed by Desert Storm and soon after then the fall of the Soviet Union.

Trust me - as a guy in his mid-20s just trying to have the best first sea tour possible - From Desert Storm to the election of Bill Clinton was a busy time and a lot of events were lost in the shuffle.

For those in the Navy, when Mount Pinatubo exploded a new age of US-Philippine relations came about shockingly fast. In roughly a year and a half after Pinatubo, we closed the last of our military bases in the Philippines after almost a century since we kicked the Spanish out.

…and that is when, in some ways, the “idea” of the Philippines froze in the minds of many. Well, folks - time to catch up. If you’re looking for more positive news about our friends, then you’re in the right spot.

After our bases closed, the US-Philippines relationship hit some bumps. They actually had some not-so-friendly leaders, but that has changed recently and the Philippines are putting out some indicators that they may be getting a foothold on the development ladder like many of their neighbors have in the last few decades.

All of that is not just good for the great people of the Philippines, but it is good for the USA and her friends in the Western Pacific.

As the successful and higher profile than normal Balikatan 24 exercise is complete - let’s look at some of the trends in the Philippines that are heading, on balance, in the right direction.

They have a population of 110 million, 63 million of whom speak English, more then Germany, Canada, or even the Mother Country of the United Kingdom.

For every three Americans, there is one Filipino.

Start with those two bits of information, and then let’s take a look at where she is…and more importantly, where she is going.

Her economy is shifting.

On a per capita basis, she seems to be struggling somewhere between Cambodia and Vietnam, but it is the trend that matters.

Demographically, her population is starting to level out. Check the demographics. A few years ago her overall fertility rate fell below replacement, but not drastically so. Life expectancy is increasing. By mid-century she is expected to grow to a manageable 132-145 million where she will most likely level off. That is manageable.

Already, their per-capita GDP growth is beating their peers.

To really increase her standard of living and national wealth, there are places that need work. First, there is work to be done in corruption. Transparency has her at 115/180 nations, improving but still between Thailand and Turkey.

Freedom House has her as “partially free” at a rank of 58, somewhere between Serbia and Mexico, so there is work to do there as well - but the trend is in the right direction.

Internal conflict? She’s had a long simmering Islamic insurgency, but that too is manageable.

She’s also motivated, like so many of her neighbors, to look for friends to enhance their security against an increasingly grasping People’s Republic of China. As the phrase goes, “Friends in need are friends, indeed.”

The latest from over the weekend;

The Philippines said on Saturday it has deployed ships to a disputed area in the South China Sea, where it accused China of building “an artificial island” in an escalating maritime row.

The coast guard sent a ship “to monitor the supposed illegal activities of China, creating ‘an artificial island’,” the office of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said in a statement, adding two other vessels were in rotational deployment in the area.

Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson Commodore Jay Tarriela told a forum there had been “small-scale reclamation” of the Sabina Shoal, which Manila calls Escoda, and that China was “the most probable actor.”

The Chinese embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the Philippine assertions, which could deepen the bilateral rift.

The Philippine national security adviser called on Friday for expelling Chinese diplomats over an alleged leak of a phone conversation with a Filipino admiral about the maritime dispute.

Beijing and Manila have been embroiled for a year in heated stand-offs over their competing claims in the South China Sea, where $3 trillion worth of trade passes annually.

China claims almost all of the vital waterway, including parts claimed by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam. The Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in 2016 that Beijing’s claims had no basis under international law.

There is opportunity here. The USA and other like-minded nations west of Wake from Japan in the north to New Zealand in the south can - with measured, respectful, and constructive engagement, make the whole greater than the sum of the individual parts to keep PRC malign efforts from expanding further.

The Philippines is a nation on the rise. A delicate rise, but a very much improved nation since Pinatubo blew its top.

Might as well end the post with a great picture of the Philippines’ armed forces over on IG after they completed a new helipad on Mavulis Island … their northwestermost island right next to Taiwan.

Speaks for itself.