Pelosi's Taiwan Effect

persistent little bugger

Last month, Brent Sadler over at the Daily Signal put out a few graphs that demonstrate how, in the course of human events, the momentary whims of high profile people can set into motion long-term changes no one really expected.

Remember this in the summer of 2022?

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to visit Taiwan next month and Beijing is not happy, threatening “determined and forceful measures” if the trip happens.

“[China] will have to take determined and forceful measures to firmly safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity” if the trip proceeds, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said, according to the Financial Times.

Former U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper is among those cautioning Pelosi, D-Calif., against any decision to cancel or postpone the trip while warning what message it would send to China.

“At this point, given the bluster and proclamations coming out from Beijing, I think if she doesn’t take the trip it’ll look like she stood down in the face of Chinese rhetoric and protestations,” Esper says.

Here we are in 2025, and, returning to Brent’s article linked above, the Pelosi Effect is rather sticky;

Would this inflection point have happened if Pelosi had not gone to Taiwan? I think probably yes, but not as quickly.

The naval and aerospace power of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is on a multi-decade long growth path. It is only natural with the critical mass they’ve developed, and the open policy goals of unification with Taiwan emphasized by Chairman Xi’s government, that the PRC military would do exactly what we would do in their shoes: prepare for the most likely requirements.

The PRC now has the world’s largest navy, and continues to grow. Her rocket forces cover her side of the Pacific. Her air power continues to improve. Should they be ordered to take Taiwan, her military should not only know the area like it is its backyard (which it is), but it should also get the Taiwanese military numb to their presence.

How do you accomplish both? You spend a lot of time at peace in the air and waters around Taiwan. Should war come, a Taiwanese military numb to your presence will be slower to react to an actual attack, and your own forces will be as comfortable operating there as the US military is operating in the Virginia Capes and San Diego operating areas.

So do we credit/blame Pelosi? No, not really. If anything, she just forced the PRC planning staff to hurry up and make things happen earlier than expected. Once they got there, they liked the tempo and, after a slight reset, decided to establish a new-normal.

Again, not unlike what we would do in their circumstance.

I hope in the last couple of years we have adjusted our planning to meet a faster timeline.