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Claude Berube's avatar

Several years ago as Director of the Naval Academy Museum, I gave a tour to a visiting PLAN flag officer. By serendipity I stopped at the screen in the Spanish-American War section and hit the Battle of Manila Bay just to show how we use it for visitors. At the bottom of the screen that had a graphic showing the course of the fleet was a text box explaining what was unfolding.

He started talking non-stop. Then his translator spoke. I looked at the screen and found that the translator was discussing points in the battle that were about five seconds ahead of the screen's narration which meant the flag was 10 seconds ahead of it. He went into great detail on distances, elevations and actions.

I stopped it and said, through his translator, "the admiral understands the Battle of Manila Bay." Through his translator he said proudly, "yes, I studied it extensively at my war college."

I started using that story at the start of each semester teaching naval history and asked my students if they were willing to learn their own history that their peer competitor knew.

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John S.'s avatar

Too much navel gazing and too little naval history.

But, even with naval history, and a good theoretical knowledge, it has a lot more value if it is repeatedly applied through war gaming scenarios. Both tactical and strategic. Decisions need to be made quickly, and in gaming mistakes will be made and scenarios may need to be repeated multiple times to find the best (or least worst) courses of action. Rosy assumptions and sacred cows need to be challenged with blunt facts from the real world such as the relative size, readiness and capabilities of BOTH sides, and any potential allies. Temper the reliance on naval history with possible (but unprecedented) asymmetrical actions- Hostile sleeper cells, EMP effects, disrupted comms, cyber warfare spoofing, plausible deniability for certain events. The next war is unlikely to follow the gentlemanly diplomatic traditions or respect traditional safe spaces or concern for collateral damage- at least by the other guys.

And, in a Pacific scenario, logistics may be the most important consideration of all, absent a massive first strike wiping out all our bases and forces on day one. Not just the "last 1,000 miles"of delivering beans, bullets and fuel, but the sustainability of any such effort from the extraction/growth, processing and distribution aspects, most of which is outside military control.

Lots of vital moving parts and players, both within the naval arena and more so without. I fear we are whistling past the graveyard when contemplating hostilities in the Pacific, if we even deign to open that Pandora's box.

Navel gazing is easier, and has been quite fashionable for at least 4 years, perhaps several decades.

It is past time to get serious again.

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