PLAN's Operation Tasmanian Dragon

I hope they gave it a cool name like that

Presence missions matter. What a nation does with its navy, and where, sends messages that diplomats probably should not send or underscores diplomatic efforts that aren’t quite gaining traction.

There are few nations anymore that have a navy that can do this effectively. With each passing year, the People’s Republic of China’s navy, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), grows more adept at this.

Few actions send a message better than the demonstration of naval power projected far from home. It has been true for thousands of years, and after decades of not being on the receiving end of it, the West and its auxiliaries need to get used to it.

As the PLAN is now the world’s largest navy, and closing the capabilities gap with the US Navy at a rapid rate, this will be a regular occurrence:

Via Anne-Marie Brady at The Diplomat;

Over two days last week, Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Naval Task Group 107 launched live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea without any warning to the Australian or New Zealand governments. The exercises were directly under the flight path of one of the busiest routes across the Tasman, a peaceful body of water far from China. As a precaution, for three days all flights across the Tasman were diverted to avoid the firing zone.

…

PLAN Naval Task Group 107 has now gone farther south than any PLA naval flotilla since 1985, when two aged PLAN vessels travelled through the Pacific and on to the Southern Ocean, delivering a team of scientists to set up China’s first Antarctic base on King George Island. During that voyage, the PLAN’s first ever blue water expedition, one of the two vessels broke down en route.

The current trip demonstrates that China now has a complete, fully self-sufficient blue water logistics support chain. This is a major breakthrough in PLAN sea power. The group of ships have transited 800 kilometers, coming via the Philippine’s Busilan Strait, passing through Papua New Guinea (PNG) waters and the Coral Sea, and on to Australia’ Eastern coast. They travelled along Australia’s Eastern coast for 10 days before the live fire exercises were launched.

At this point, it might be helpful to point out the geography of the Tasman Sea:

Right southwest of Sydney, see that “ACT” on the chart? That stands for ‘Australian Capital Territory.’ Their version of 'D.C.,' as in 'Washington, District of Columbia’.

That is the Australian capital, Canberra. Just a two-hour drive in from the coast.

That would be like the PLAN doing a live-fire exercise without warning in the VACAPES.

To be fair to the PRC, the U.S., Australia, Japan, and even Canada have made a point of sailing through the Taiwan Strait. I don’t think they’ve done even Killer Tomato live-fire exercises, but still.

I will nod my head to the PRC’s decision here. Ballsy and appropriate for THEIR national goals.

They weren’t very neighborly about it:

Military officials say China's navy did not give them any advance notice before starting "disruptive" live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea last week, confirming they were only alerted to the drills by a Virgin Australia pilot.

Defence Chief Admiral David Johnston told Senate estimates that Air Services Australia were warned of the drills at around 10am on Friday, after commercial airlines picked up a radio broadcast from the Chinese naval task group.

The agency alerted Defence about 10 minutes later — at around 10:10am — meaning it was only aware of the exercises 40 minutes after China's navy opened a "window" for live-fire exercises from 9:30am.

…

When pressed on whether the Chinese navy's behaviour could be described as "provocative", Admiral Johnston said he would describe it as "irresponsible" and "disruptive".

Defence told the committee that the Chinese warships had now moved back into Australia's Exclusive Economic Zone and were now about 250 kilometres south of Tasmania.

They are sending a message to Australia and New Zealand, that is clear. Are the right people hearing it?

The proper response here is, of course, a demonstration of strength and resolve.

In Salamanderistan, we would have a combined transit with warships from the U.S., New Zealand, Canada, Australia, Vietnam, Japan, and perhaps another going from south to north and then do a port visit to Japan together…except, no live fire exercises, a lot of PAOs and very large battle flags flying from all ships.

Big party in Sasebo afterwards too—but that is just me.