Russia's Baltic Gambit

geography can be a blessing, a curse, or a responsibility

Going from east to west, with a few precious exceptions at the far eastern end at St. Petersburg and occupied Königsberg, the Baltic Sea is not just a NATO lake; NATO controls the gate.

Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Sweden, Poland, Germany, Denmark, and Norway—all NATO members, and yet as we are in the 4th year of the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022 and all the sanctions against Russia, like a drug-addicted cop won’t bust his dealer, the path to the open seas and cash to feed its war remains wide open.

However slowly, Western Europe is slowly weaning itself off of its addictions to and fear of Russia. Back in February, you can see the opening play of the latest developments.

Denmark has taken its next step in cracking down on Russian-linked shadow tankers passing through its waters.

The Danish Maritime Authority will carry out port state controls on tankers it deems high risk who anchor off Skagen in the far north of the country, a popular anchorage. Ships found with safety defects or not having the right papers or insurance risk being detained.

Denmark has been leading littoral states around the Baltic in discussing ways to clamp down on ageing tankers carrying Russian oil, following a number of accidents and the severing of cables in the region.

Russia sends about a third of its seaborne oil exports through the Danish straits with around one in three of these ships having unknown insurance. Today, some 175 tankers laden with Russian oil transit the Baltic each month, according to Craig Kennedy who runs the Navigating Russia substack.

The number of vessels hit by sanctions surpassed 1,000 late last year with data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showing that more 800 of these ships do not have confirmed insurance. Moreover, the average age of sanctioned ships – 21 years – is some eight years older than the global average, adding to growing concern that the sprawling so-called shadow fleet could lead to multiple costly environmental catastrophes.

Of course, this wouldn’t be a blockade. That is an act of war. However, I’ll let you sea and admiralty lawyers argue things out in comments, nations have every right to ensure the safety and proper legality of ships in their territorial waters.

Ships going to and from Russian Baltic Sea ports on legitimate business meeting all safety and legal requirements should be allowed to come and go under the concept of ‘innocent passage’ as long as they comply with the coastal state’s laws concerning navigation and safety.

Denmark’s Skagerrak is the gate to the Baltic. Her NATO allies should be able to generate complete maritime domain awareness of ships approaching the Skagerrak from the east outbound. Likewise, Norway and the other North Sea NATO allies should be able to generate the same in the western approaches inbound.

Russia can see the pieces moving into place and is deciding to bully the Danes and NATO into not being difficult. That is why we have this.

Denmark has temporarily banned civil drone flights in its airspace as it prepares to host a top European Union meeting on defense and the war in Ukraine, and after a surge of suspicious drone activity at several airports and military sites last week.

The ban, which runs from Monday to Friday, aims to eliminate any risk of “hostile” drones being mistaken for legal ones or vice versa, the country’s transport minister Thomas Danielson told CNN.

Several unexplained sightings of drones over civilian airports and a military base were reported in Denmark last week. The incidents forced several airports to temporarily close and disrupted travel for tens of thousands of people.

Russia is not subtle in its threats.

“We are currently in a difficult security situation, and we must ensure the best possible working conditions for the armed forces and the police when they are responsible for security during the EU summit,” Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said in a statement on Sunday.

Things are building up, and the alliance is responding.

…NATO is taking the potential threat from these drones seriously.

The Swedish government “has just decided to task the Swedish Armed Forces with supporting Denmark with military anti-drone capabilities in connection with this week’s summits in Copenhagen,” Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said on X Monday morning. “Specifically, this involves a unit contribution with anti-drone capabilities, so-called Counter UAS. The unit will be led by the Danish Armed Forces and contribute to their support of the Danish police operation in connection with this week’s summits.”

In addition, Sweden will also “lend a handful of powerful radar systems to Denmark for a period of time,” Kristersson added. “Among the best radar systems in the world. This is Swedish engineering that we can be truly proud of. The radar systems were already sent yesterday.”

…

Germany has deployed the Sachsen class air defense frigate FGS Hamburg to Copenhagen, the Danish Defense Ministry (MoD) announced on Sunday.

…

In addition to deploying the Hamburg, Germany is also providing Denmark with “counter-small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (C-sUAS) capabilities, which utilize detection systems that employ radar, optical and acoustic technologies,” The Associated Press noted.

France has deployed “35 personnel, a Fennec helicopter, and active counter-drone assets” to Denmark “in response to the recent upsurge in unidentified drone flights in Danish airspace,” the French Defense Ministry said in a statement, adding the drones were a “serious threat.”

It would be helpful to have more alliance forces from non-Baltic nations move at least token forces to Denmark. The Netherlands would be on my short list. The U.S. is occupied in the Middle East and Caribbean right now. I would put the Royal Navy on that list too, but I’m not sure she has a combat capable air defense ship to send.

Everyone should be looking at what to send, as the ratchet seems to be about to click.

The current crisis has again pushed EU and NATO members to reassess options to counter these developments, including a complete blockade of the seas for Russian assets. Current EU, UK, and US sanctions on Russia are already impacting Putin’s revenues, but Moscow still holds access to the seas, particularly Baltic outlets.

…

The Baltic Sea and its gateways—including the Skagerrak, Kattegat, Danish Straits, and Øresund—are not only narrow waterways but also vital maritime arteries for commerce, energy, and communication. These routes connect Northern and Central Europe to global markets, making them strategically important. The growing threat of Russian interference in these areas is a cause for concern.

…

Lawful measures to block Russian access exist but have not yet been implemented. European coastal states could establish port denials, targeted sanctions, insurance and financial interdictions, and naval patrols under clear legal mandates—options that may now be discussed in Copenhagen. … To be effective, the Copenhagen Summit should adopt a layered civil-military strategy leveraging peacetime authorities such as customs, port-state control, sanctions enforcement, insurance leverage, naval presence, and monitoring.

I’m not sure you will get the entire alliance to agree on much more than strongly worded letters, but there could be an alliance of the willing to take some of the steps outlined above. If you do, just make sure you properly wargame at least three aggressive ‘Red Most Dangerous Courses of Action’ during OPLAN development.

Just keep in mind: if NATO does nothing more than what it is already doing, then Russia will be rewarded for its bullying. If it does more, then Russia can use this to dig in deeper and become more hostile. That can lead to a variety of dark places, but here we are.

This is why you have to be careful in letting wars go on for long periods of time. They eventually drift away from the reasons they started and can morph into something completely different, and deadlier.