So, Does China's Shipbuilding Capacity Concern You?
Well, gird your loins...
Geiger Capital has a graph and a bit of commentary that you simply cannot ignore.
I know most readers here know this, but the graphic captures the scale of our collective national failure to see the world as it has become.
One shipyard in China made more commercial ships in 2024 than the total number the US has produced since World War II. The destruction of America’s industrial base is a massive national security threat.
The United States is the Arsenal of Democracy™?
I don’t think so, and the PRC’s capabilities are only a small bit of this existential failure that people seem to have become aware of slowly at first, then all at once.
All caveats about Russia’s demographics, economics, and rough edges apply, but numbers matter.
Mackenzie Eaglen has some sobering numbers over at 19fortyfive:
…Russia’s methodical nationwide expansion of military industrial production through the opening of new manufacturing facilities and the conversion of commercial production lines for military purposes. The result is a reinvigorated Russian defense industrial base that is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles this year. By comparison, the U.S. constructs just 135 tanks per year and no longer builds new Bradley Fighting Vehicles.
Beyond equipment, Russia has vastly expanded its munitions production. The U.S. European Command estimates Russia can produce 250,000 artillery shells per month, which puts it on track to build a stockpile three times greater than the U.S. and Europe combined.
How is Putin achieving all this in short order? According to Cavoli, Russia’s economy is on a “war footing” and “will remain so for the foreseeable future.”
That last part is what should give you pause. DragonBear is on a war footing while in the West we are, well, hoping?
the Pentagon’s Indo-Pacific command chief warned late last year was his concern about dwindling stocks of precision weapons and missiles. Calling China the “most capable potential adversary in the world,” Admiral Samuel Paparo urged straight talk and highlighted the worrisome lack of American military magazine depth.
…
Intelligence estimates indicate that China now has 200 times the shipbuilding capacity of the U.S.—China can now build more warships in a month than the U.S. can in a year. China’s robust dual-use maritime industry is primed to build and repair ships at a wartime tempo, while the U.S. industry is in decline. In a drawn-out conflict, China would have the clear advantage in building, repairing, and maintaining warships at sea.
This is good to hear, but let’s see when the money follows.
The good news is that both the legislative and executive branches agree: the U.S. must invest in targeted military capabilities to get results now. There is bipartisan recognition that we need to bolster deterrence, modernize the armed forces, and rebuild the workforce, facilities, and supply chains that underpin our defense industrial base. America’s adversaries aren’t waiting, and neither should we. These investments take years to deliver. The sooner Washington moves from plans to production, the sooner the military can rebuild its arsenal, restore deterrence, and ensure America is never outmatched.
Can we re-industrialize? Of course. We have a huge population. We are blessed with abundant land, resources, and advantageous geography.
All we lack are will, leadership, and persistence.
The future belongs to those who seize it. You don’t seize it with strongly worded letters with paragraphs that begin with, “We recognize that…” or “We affirm…”.
Nothing is granted, and a nation must earn its place in the world with each generation.
We became lazy, myopic, and entitled. As the world gets serious again, so must we.
Washington loves to talk about naval matters, but it doesn't actually do much.
In less than a month we'll know if President Trump is serious about enforcing his Executive Order 14269 ("Restoring America's Maritime Dominance"), because it's almost a certainty that the bureaucrats will slow walk everything. The first of Trump's deadlines are in Section 14 and Section 20, which require concrete actions by Friday, May 9, 2025.
If the bureaucracy continues to drag its feet, and if Trump & SECDEF Hegseth don't respond viciously and ruthlessly to compel obedience from the Pentagon and the rest of the Executive Branch, then we'll know that America will continue to sit on its ass through 2028 while China keeps building the world's most lethal navy.
You get more of what you reward, and you get less of what you punish. Trump is great at issuing decrees. Has he finally learned to follow through? We'll know in 23 days.
Set a reminder on your phone's calendar app.
Well start with Steel, you need rolled steel to build ships and submarines. Rather than allow Nippon Steel to buy US Steel, the government could allow the existing steel companies here in the USA to buy the assets and either consolidate or reinvigorate existing facilities. How about a nice chat with the unions? You union guys talk tough, we are offering you a percentage of ownership and seats on the board. Oh you don’t want that? Then quit slowing down the train. No Private Equity or Hedge Fund money allowed, just people with a BIG loan floating over their heads and share holders that have to take a long view, or just all shares employee owned. Perhaps low cost loans over a long period backed by the full and credit of the federal government. Okay now we have some steel, how about the shipyards to build the ships. Well someone(s) need(s) a kick in the ass so hard they chew leather. Military and civilian managers who have tolerated the sloth, laziness, waste and fraud, hello Fat Leonard, need to go to prison, and if a military officer or enlisted to Leavenworth for a good stretch. But let’s start with the overweight SecNav, hey tons of fun, grab a piece of iron instead of a Big Mac and get busy. Times wasting. While we’re at it and talking coatings because we don’t use “paint” figure out a way while deployed to at least make a feeble attempt at tackling rust. Here is a novel approach for a leadership refresher course for the flag officers, a 1 day all expenses paid trip to Coronado, there is it gang, the water! Now get wet and get sandy. The Marine Corps leadership doesn’t get a pass, they go swimming too. The guys with baseball hats, blue T shirts and camouflage BDU’s will help you all out in reaching your inner child. It would weed out the majority and then we can find some real leadership in the 05/06 ranks back fill. Honestly, it is so simple.