Syria's Jenga Tower

thing about 'frozen conflicts' they eventually thaw

2024 hasn’t gone for Iran’s proxies quite how they thought it would that morning of October 7th, 2023.

The last almost three years have not quite gone the way Russia thought they would go when they invaded Ukraine, again, in February of 2022.

War is always a dark room. You don’t know what you’ll find once you step inside and shut the door.

Bad decisions and fickle and failing international leadership with a shaky grip on the need for decisive victory has left our globe littered with frozen conflicts. Not resolved conflicts…just conflicts where for a variety of reasons the fronts are frozen and no party sees an opening to restart conflict with a good chance for a positive outcome.

Parties are just waiting for the moment to be ripe to move.

Often, especially when peace treaties are forced on rival parties in a conflict prior to achieving resolute victory, frozen conflicts can be a way for a certain set of leaders to buy time, hope things don’t go too wobbly on their watch, and punting their problems to some different set of leaders in the future.

Look at the globe’s many frozen conflicts and ask, 'Are we ready for the thaw?’

This week we saw one become unfrozen, and in hindsight it makes sense.

Syria is hot again. Like the equally nightmarish Libya, this hangover from the Obama years was just waiting to restart.

Syria isn’t really just a civil war. It is more than a proxy war. It has major external players on the world stage with active military participation. The United States, Russia, Turkey, and Israel all are actively involved, the first three on the ground. Other nations such as the United Kingdom and France will make an appearance now and then. Jordan and Iraq have their fingers in the pie.

The major external powers have even come into direct conflict with each other; USA on Russia, Turkey on Russia…and probably more that have not made it in to open source. To say it is a complicated mess, waiting for mistakes to happen, is an understatement.

If you are looking for the good guys, you will need to squint.

The news that broke the logjam was that one of the many warring parties—the Al-Qaeda-adjacent Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—had a breakthrough last week. It was clear case of preparation meets opportunity.

Some of the most useful reporting is from Al Jezeera and I’d recommend you keep their page in your scan.

… (HTS), are advancing into Aleppo and south towards Hama, just five days after launching a surprise offensive that may have sparked a new phase of the 13-year war in Syria.

Syria’s military announced a “temporary troop withdrawal” on Saturday from Aleppo, the country’s second largest city, saying it would regroup in preparation for the arrival of reinforcements for a counterattack.

President Bashar al-Assad’s forces had controlled Aleppo since 2016 with support from Iran, Russia and Hezbollah after a brutal air campaign by Russian warplanes helped al-Assad retake the city of about two million people.

Each day involves a 'go' or 'no-go' calculus. So, what changed?

Russia’s capabilities are but a shadow. Iran’s primary proxy, Hezbollah, is being pounded by Israel and has to be more concerned with the affairs of Lebanon as opposed to Syria. Iran’s IRGC is being pounded by Israel as well every time they pop their head up in country.

Looks like a ripe time.

First, before we get too far, quick reminder of the players in this game:

Next, let’s head to the map room and look at the change on the ground over the last week:

HTS’s drive to Hama on the road to Homs and the Lebanese border could, if successful, split away the coastal wedge of Syria.

Aleppo is just part of a larger operation. The area west of the M5 road is not just another chunk of land.

See that blue to the west? That is the Mediterranean Sea. That is where you will find the Russian Mediterranean Fleet’s base in Tartus. Russia will not just watch this happen.

That is also home to the Alawite Shia sect that the Assad family is part of, and a fair percentage of Syria’s Christian minority.

No, this effort by HTS will not be let standing if the Russians and the Syrian government can do anything about it. This is not open desert. This will be hotly contested.

In response to HTS, we’ve seen movement by the Turkish backed forces. The Kurds have been exceptionally active around Aleppo. Iraqi Shia militia have already crossed from Iraq in to Syria with some reports that the USA has engaged them because, of course.

As opposed to the last period of significant fighting, Russia cannot bring to bear (pun intended) what the Assad government needs. Russia is distracted with larger problems in Ukraine and has African adventures that are not an easy walk.

Turkey is feeling Ottoman at the moment and, to be frank, will do what Turkey wants for Turkish reasons...mostly focused on the Kurds.

The Kurds and Yazidi will not go quietly against the wall or in to the slave cage easily again. They are the ones, mostly, that we are backing, and are closest to being “good guys.” We also back some not too impressive Syrian anti-Assad forces in the area around the Iraq/Jordan/Syria tri-state border point.

Everyone wants to kill what remains of ISIS.

This all against all war will end some way, some day, but not soon and not without even more rivers of blood.

If the international “we” are lucky, “we” will not be drawn in to it any further than we have.

This is a fruit of the frozen conflict tree that we will all have to bite into. One day, may we return to a more decisive international perspective on conflict resolution.