Tell History we Need a Half Decade, mkay?

fixing to think about getting ready to isn't cutting it

After reading the latest GAO report on the Amphibious Warfare Fleet, a think-thank-fella, friend to the Substack & podcast, and fellow maritime traveler dropped me a friendly note to let me know this little bit gave him pause.

With that knocking around his nogg’n a bit, he was kind enough to ask me this question:

So my question to you is: what are your thoughts on how long a war would have to last for US shipyards to deliver new tonnage? What is their ability to replace wartime losses and augment the fleet?

Caught up in year-end requirements, I didn’t have time to produce a GAO-level report myself. Instead, I quickly crafted a better-than-average response to share with the Front Porch, inviting you to revise and extend my remarks as needed.

I decided to respond from my safe space; history.

It is important to remember that the US Navy buildup to WWII started with boosting the civilian shipbuilding industry via the Merchant Marine Act of 1936. That was followed by the Naval Act of 1938. Industry, especially with the follow budgets signaling greater business, were able to expand capacity/employees etc.

So, to get to a wartime footing, you need at least a half decade's warning of war and action in the budget accordingly. After that, then you have the issue of finding and training a workforce.

In mid-depression USA in the mid-late 1930s, you had no problem finding good people willing to work at reasonable rates. In a nation of 3.5% unemployment, you do not.

You also have very little suitable waterfront locations to build ships. Imagine the legal and regulatory fights--things a more nimble nation in the 1930s did not have to grapple with--needed to claw back the Brooklyn Naval Shipyard, Philadelphia Shipyard, San Francisco Shipyard, Charleston, etc, etc.

A half decade after the flush of funding to build the fleet that fought WWII, the lead ship of the Essex Class Carrier (820 feet, 37,000 tons) was laid down in April of 1941, commissioned in Dec. 42, and was ready to fight after accelerated trials by March of 43, two years later.

An American Class LHA today is 844 feet, 46,000 tons. It was laid down in 2009, commissioned in 2014 and ready for operations later that year. I'm counting 5 years...but if you include "ordered" then yes, 7 years, an additional two years. Essex had 1 year from being ordered to being laid down, so with that metric, 3 years.

To answer your question, if we have a 2025 version of the 1936 act and its money, and could force mode zoning, environmental impact statements, lawfare, etc to claw back real estate...then we could be ready for wartime production by 2028 at the earliest. Given our present sloth, I'd move that out a year.

The executive summary here is that, no, the USA is not prepared to meet wartime needs right now. Not just for building new ships. We have almost zero capacity to repair any battle damage forward or at home. Zip. We gave it all away. We have a show Navy that can at best do imperial policing. We do not have a war Navy ready to fight in the western Pacific for more than 90-days, at best.

A final note. Over two years ago - hard to believe it was that long - our friend Jerry Hendrix proposed “The Ships Act.” It appears the idea has been made flesh with The Ships for America Act. It is a bipartisan act with support in the House and Senate that should see movement in the next Congress. It isn’t a repeat of the 1936 Act that got the ball rolling, but it rhyme with it.

May we see many more follow.