The 4th Summer of War, with Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg - on Midrats
a slog of change
This summer, the fourth summer of the Russo-Ukrainian War that started in the winter of 2022, we find the first serious and determined effort towards a genuine negotiation to end this grinding war in Eastern Europe.
The experiences and lessons of this war aren’t only changing how nations throughout the world prepare for their next war, it has forced even greater changes on both combatants how they fight now and plan structuring their national defense post-war.
Returning to Midrats again to discuss this and related issues is Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg, a Senior Research Scientist in the Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs division of CNA, where he has worked since 2000.
You can listen at this link, or via the Spotify widget below.
Dr. Gorenburg is an associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and previously served as Executive Director of the American Association of the Advancement of Slavic Studies (AAASS). His research interests include security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. Dr. Gorenburg is author of Nationalism for the Masses: Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Federation (Cambridge University Press, 2003), and has been published in journals such as World Politics and Post-Soviet Affairs. He currently serves as editor of Problems of Post-Communism and was also editor of Russian Politics and Law from 2009 to 2016. Dr. Gorenburg received a B.A. in international relations from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University.
Show Links
Inside Russia’s Shadow Military Sustaining the War, by Mariya Y. Omelicheva
India’s Ministry of External Affairs letter of 04 August 2025.
Summary
In this episode of the Midrats Podcast, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is explored in depth, focusing on the initial misjudgments about the war's duration, the societal costs for Russia, and the regional disparities in the impact of the war. The conversation also delves into recruitment strategies, the role of paramilitary forces, economic pressures, and the dynamics within NATO. Additionally, military reforms, the influence of drones on warfare, and international support for Russia's military efforts are discussed, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the conflict and its broader implications.
Takeaways
The initial belief was that Russia would win quickly.
The price of repression in Russia has increased significantly.
Recruitment for the war is more successful in rural areas.
The narrative has shifted to a defensive stance against the West.
Paramilitary forces were initially relied upon due to manpower shortages.
The Russian economy has held up better than expected despite sanctions.
Drones have made battlefields more static and less mobile.
Russia is undergoing military reforms to adapt to the ongoing conflict.
The North-South divide in NATO influences regional support for Ukraine.
Russia's GDP is lower than that of Texas, highlighting economic challenges.
Chapters
00:00: Intro to the Ongoing Russia-Ukraine Conflict
05:34: Initial Misjudgments and Long-Term Perspectives
08:31: The Price of War on Russian Society
12:11: Regional Disparities in Russia's War Impact
16:38: Shifting Narratives and Recruitment Strategies
20:28: The Role of Paramilitary Forces
24:52: Economic Pressures and Negotiation Prospects
30:12: Russia's War Economy and International Trade
31:16: Military Reforms and Logistics Improvements
38:50: The Impact of Drones on Warfare
54:34: International Support and Drone Development
56:25: NATO Dynamics and Eastern European Politics
You got the date wrong. The war started in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea, which was and is a part of Ukraine. That the invasion began with "little green men" moving into another country in order to alter politics in favor of Russia. The President of US considers similar activity on the part of latin-americas immigration to be an "invasion" (it is not), but he would give Crimea to Russia in the spirit of "anything for peace." (it should not be)
That did not work in advance of WWII and we should not be fooled by it now. What is needed is "tit for tat", shown to be the most successful strategy for settling disputes. If Russia sends a missile to Ukraine, one should be sent back to Russia. Putin's mercenaries are murderers and he is a war criminal. The Russian people need to feel the pain and maybe they will bring about the peace by putting pressure on the author of this Russian novel.
Serious negotiations are impossible with a party - Putin - who will destroy his country to take Ukraine. His economy is based on the extraction of natural resources, especially fossil fuels, and his fossil fuels plays in Siberia are in terminal depletion, those fields have gone to hydrofracturing, to get out the last drop/cubic foot of recoverable resource, and when that's done, Russia is done. His only other options are in the Far East - which is under threat from the Chinese, who already have a million nationals on the ground there - they've redrawn their maps to undo the 1860 treaty which made Outer Manchuria a part of Russia; and Ukraine. China invaded the Far East, crossing the Amur and Ussuri rivers in 1969, it took the Russian Army of that time six months to throw the PLA out. The Chinese have been watching the actions of the Russian Army in Ukraine like a cat watches a mouse, they may perhaps figure that they can take the Far East and keep it this time. And Putin knows this, and quite well, and some of his elites have figured this out as well - including Dugin, whose Moscow-Tokyo Axis just hasn't come about.
That leaves Ukraine, not only with its rich deposits of rare earth metals, including lithium - the second largest in Europe - but with extensive fossil fuel formations, both on- and offshore, the latter in the northern Black Sea, south of Odessa and Crimea. Add to that two warm water ports at Sevastopol and Feodosia, and potentially one at Taganrog at the north end of the Sea of Azov, and you have the ideal situation to recapitalize Russia - but only if Ukraine is disarmed and neutered, with a puppet government in Kiev. Drones have demonstrably disastrous effects on refineries, storage facilities, and loading points, thus the possibility of drone strikes must be eliminated.
Putin needs Ukraine and its resources - and land - but not its people. If he succeeds, there will be a second Holodomor, worse than the one in the early 1930s. Any "peace" will be little more than an operational pause; for peace to exist, Russia's military threat and its capability to project force must be eliminated - or else there will be continual war until Russia is driven into bankruptcy and a 1990s style dissolution, or until it is defeated militarily. Negotiations will be little more than a strategic play for time.