The German Elections: Take the "W"

elections matter

Note: this is being written Sunday night. These numbers are not final and I am using different sources, so allow a few small differences.

Sunday, Germany held national elections for the parliament, the Bundestag. Congrats to the German people and their ~83% turnout, the greatest I believe, since unification.

The previous government led by SPD and hobbled the the Greens was unstable at best, and was not doing great things for the German people. That would be why the SPD’s results were the worst since 1887.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has clear words for the performance of his SPD. "This is a devastating, catastrophic result," he said. "There is no way to sugarcoat it." He congratulated the Union on its election victory. "I hope that - especially in view of Friedrich Merz's speech in Munich yesterday - they will now strike the right tone and understand that it is about keeping the democrats together and not playing them off against each other." An AfD at 20 percent cannot leave the Social Democrats in particular at rest.

Nuff said.

The above numbers were from Sunday night and are not final, but we can safely assume that they are roughly where the final count will be.

You need 316 seats to control, and you need 5% to enter government. That last bit puts FDP and BSW out of the picture. I’ll chat a bit about that at the bottom of the post, but let’s focus on the big boys.

First things first, Germany voted for right-wing governance. CDU/CSU (Union), and AfD got 49.2% of the vote. However, no one will form a government with them, so the Germans will not be getting what they voted for.

Let’s look at the expected seats.

If those numbers hold +/- a seat or two, that would give a Union-SPD government 329 seats, a 13 seat majority. Glory to all—that keeps the Greens out of government, as the CSU in Union will not enter government with them at all.

It would also make AfD the leader of the opposition. Being that they were the #2 recipient of votes but were not considered to be a part of government, they will play that role with vigor.

Just look at the constituency map:

AfD broke into the former West Germany. Both Kaiserslautern and Gelsenkirchen voted for AfD. I also find it interesting that in addition to the West Germany/East Germany divide, the East Berlin/West Berlin divide is still there.

History is sticky.

I lived with Germans for four years, yet I don’t fully grasp German politics. Still, some political constants hold true everywhere.

Again, the Germans voted for a right-wing government. With Union having to partner with SPD, that will pull the center of the government to the left, further away of the center of the electorate…again.

Were I a German, I would want a few things, in this order:

1. Cheaper energy—lower monthly bills and prices across the board. It will also make German manufacturing more competitive. Yes, the only way to do that is to restart the nuclear power plants. With the Greens gone, no reason not to.

2. Stop migration. Expel illegal migrants. If someone has vacationed in the nation they claimed to seek asylum from, deport them. Etc.

3. Be a player in ending the war in Ukraine, if it can be ended. If Russia refuses to be reasonable at the table, then fully back the Ukrainian fight. As this is aligned with the general direction of the USA and other allies, it makes sense.

4. Redouble spending on national defense. 2% will not do. 2.5% is the floor, and must be reached faster.

All the four above will be more difficult with SPD in government. Remember my long-held position that applies everywhere, not just in Germany:

When the center-right and center-left refuse to address the legitimate concerns of the people, especially in issues of migration and culture, then the people will look elsewhere for their concerns to be met.

If AfD were brought into government, they would be forced to moderate and to be held accountable for the action of government. With AfD in opposition—with a bone in their teeth—they will most likely, if they do not implode due to their well-known “personnel challenges”, they will increase their popularity with voters.

Likewise, with SPD in government, they will upset the hard left in their own party, who might drift to the old communists in Linke.

The old Cold War Black-Red/Red-Black grand coalition government may not work as hoped…however, there is hope.

According to CDU politician Jens Spahn, many European countries would like the new federal government to take a more restrictive course in migration policy. "The whole of Europe is waiting for leadership from Germany to limit migration," said the former health minister on election night in the ARD program Caren Miosga . This also included plans to outsource asylum procedures to so-called safe third countries.

"Anyone who thinks we can simply carry on as before for three or four years will be in for a nasty surprise - unfortunately in the true sense of the word - at the next election, and that is why these numbers for illegal migration must go down," said Spahn, alluding to the AfD.

Union is a post-Merkel Union. If SPD can get rid of Scholz and leave the crusty 1980s Soviet apologist SPD behind, and they get a better leader, then perhaps it may work.

If they do what needs to be done, AfD’s rise will stall. Linke will stay in single digits, Germany will be stronger, NATO will be stronger, the EU will be stronger, and the USA will be stronger.

Why the USA? With a stronger, more 21st century Germany.

Friedrich Merz of CDU will most likely be the next Chancellor. He stated as one of his goals,

"For me, the absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA" in defense matters, Merz said late on February 23 following his party’s first-place finish in Germany’s parliamentary election.

This is being reported unnecessarily negatively. This is positive for Germany, Europe, and America.

Should China decide to challenge the USA in the Pacific, Europe will be an economy of force operation for the USA, as almost all we have will be needed west of the International Date Line.

Europe and NATO must manage with less U.S. defense support should the USA be in a hard fight in the Pacific. Europe cannot secure itself without a strong Germany.

This is all good. A modern Germany fully part of the Western security system should be able to operation “independent” from the USA.

This will come with little warning more than Ukraine had before Russia moved in 2022.

I promised a bit on BSW and FDP.

If you are wondering what BSW is:

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance – Reason and Justice (German: Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit [beː.ɛsˈveː], BSW) is a political party in Germany founded on 8 January 2024. It has been described as far-left, left-wing populist, left-wing nationalist, socialist, culturally conservative, socially conservative, Eurosceptic and critical of the United States. The party is skeptical of green politics and support for Ukraine in the Russo-Ukrainian War, and has been described as Russophilic by critics, which BSW disputes.

The party originated as a split from the party The Left (Die Linke).

Personality-driven parties are notoriously unstable. Good thing they do not have to be relied on to form a government. Smell of commies anyway.

With my FDP, yes I always associated with the FDP, failing to get the 5% needed to enter parliament and as a result their leader Christian Lindner is, rightfully, leaving politics.

The breakdown of the traffic light coalition paved the way for these new elections. For the FDP, which will probably miss out on a place in the Bundestag, it was a big risk, as party leader Christian Lindner emphasized at the election event in Berlin. "Last autumn we took the full political risk for our country. Today we are paying a high price for it. But for Germany this decision was the right one."

He thanked all the election workers on site and stressed: "It wasn't your fault."

Final note: to my fellow Americans. If your state took longer to report their votes than all of Germany did to report its on Sunday, don’t get upset if people call into question the fidelity and accuracy of your elections, if not the validity of the results.