The Maduro Raid: Early Reports & Cautions

great nations can just do things

If you didn’t get a chance to listen to Sunday’s Midrats Podcast with Mark and me, give it a listen to hear a broader discussion with some additional detail thrown in. Today is going to be a bit different.

We are still just ~72-hours from the events, so there is an order of magnitude more of what we don’t know than we do, but some items are breaking out from the fog.

On yesterday’s podcast, I briefly mentioned a framework for discussion that I think is helpful to flesh out here—an addendum to my comments on the podcast, so to speak.

As we stand here the Monday after the events of Friday night/Saturday morning, what are some clear items of consideration at the Tactical, Operational, Strategic, and Political levels?

Let’s do Top-3s at D+3:

Tactical:

• No other military on the planet has the Joint/Combined Arms/Interagency capability to successfully execute this mission. None. This is a unique national capability that we should carefully nurture, steward, and improve on.

• The death of rotary wing (RW) aircraft has been greatly exaggerated. As I have written often over the last two decades, one has to examine closely the lessons of small and medium sized wars, as they will inform you what will be needed in the next large war. That is the gold standard…but you have to be careful. Some lessons look to have broader implications, but they may be muted or amplified by the location and venue you are looking at. Yes, flying large groups of RW in the Ukraine theater is a questionable proposition, but that is because they are Ukrainian and Russian RW being flown by Ukrainians and Russians. American RW aircraft have training, equipment, and capabilities that others do not have. It was not by luck that none of our RW operating deep in Venezuela were shot down. Make no mistake, without a diverse, robust, and numerous RW capabilities, the Maduro Raid would not have been possible.

• Unmanned systems are A tool, not THE tool. I agree, the use and utility of unmanned systems in the Russo-Ukrainian War has expanded at an astronomical rate, but in spite of what some may be trying to sell you, the future is not “All U_V All the Time”. Unmanned systems are like aircraft, submarines, and body armor—they get added to the tool box. The more diverse the toolbox, the more capable your military. That last comment refers to a lot more than unmanned systems.

Operational:

• Sovereign Bases Matter: While we have seen other friendly nations let us use their facilities, the reanimation of Roosevelt Roads and the general Guamification of Puerto Rico over the last few months is a wake-up call to everyone. Serious policy makers need to put their accountants in the back of the room where they belong. A global power rides along support structures few see and understand at peace until they are needed at war but gone. Having a wide variety of inefficient and underutilized bases and facilities scattered around is a feature, not a bug. The future is unknown and an impatient lover. Do not test, taunt, or take her for granted. Reactivate more bases. Play hard ball with the UK about Diego Garcia. Pray for peace.

• America Must be the Dominate Maritime & Aerospace Power in Order to be a Global Power: I don’t mind saying, “I told you so.” so I will happily say, I told you so. Yes, we need land power, but most of it should be light, expeditionary and exemplary. The balance of heavy maneuver forces should be based on US territory and the balance in the Reserve and National Guard. Everyone who went feet dry in Venezuela came back home because the U.S.A. dominated the air, electromagnetic spectrum, and the sea to such a degree that any challenge to that dominance was a death sentence to the challenger.

• Few Things are More Useful Than a Large Deck Amphib: Let any person who poo-poos the USMC demanding more amphibious ships, or worse, bleats out how they are obsolete, be tarred, feathered, and run out on a rail. All hail the USS Iwo Jima (LHD-7). IYKYK.

Strategic:

• Punitive Expeditions Make Peace: Rightfully, coming on the back of the bombing of the Iranian nuclear program earlier this year, this decisive action has put bad faith actors on notice that the U.S.A. has the ability to act on her words, and will. All the usual suspects on the fail bus and the faculty lounge of The Smartest People in the Room™ will make the usual noises against taking firm action, or even a whiff of punitive expeditions being valid in the 21st Century. I’m sorry, we tried their methods, measured them, and found them wanting. We wanted punitive expeditions for Afghanistan and Iraq, but instead we wasted trillions of dollars borrowed in the name of children yet unborn and expended the lives, bodies, and blood of tens of thousands of America’s sons and daughters in the pursuit of a vanity driven mirage of no benefit to the nation. No more. America is a nation of action when she so desires. Sometimes our show of force is more than a show and just because we break it does not mean we will buy it.

• Clearing Out Our Backyard of Pests: Venezuela was allowed to be a basing point of China, Russia, Iran and their proxies in our hemisphere—and became a source of destabilization through narcotics, organized crime, and political bad actors. None of it promoted peace, prosperity, freedom, or the free flow of goods at market prices—just authoritarianism, terror, poverty, misery, corruption, and strife. She externalized her dysfunction to our shores, and so it became our business.

• America Must be Ready to Go Alone: Yes, some nations voiced support for our actions. The usual leftists did not. Many simply hedged their bets, but there are some things a nation must do for itself, by itself. It isn’t just operational security for us, or the question of capability by others to help. No, it is simply, will to take action and take risk. Sure, we have had some U.S. administrations who would never do what was done, but that’s part of being a democratic republic. However, we have one who will now. Let’s just hope that will is leavened with wisdom.

Political:

• Who is Running Venezuela?: We have given the Venezuelan people an opportunity to put their nation on track to benefit its people. It is incredibly rich, large, and blessed with superb geography, but has spent the last few decades in socialist self-destruction. Will they go the way of Norway and Argentina, or Nigeria and Turkmenistan?

• Bad Neighbors are Negative Help: At the moment at least, Venezuela’s largest neighbors, Brazil and Colombia, are run by leftist governments led by Marxists. Will they help or hurt Venezuela during this time where governance is in flux?

• Friends Foreign and Domestic: All over the world where you see large concentration of Venezuelan expats, there have been outpourings of celebrations. Likewise, there have been those being unusually upset that South America’s worst despot is gone. From the UN to your local politicians, look at where they stand, and who they are standing with. Such events are clarifying. For the U.S.A., we should also look at the response to our “friends” to this event and take careful note of that as well.

That’s the 72-hour quick look. A week, a month, a year from now, things may change…but there is great opportunity for the U.S.A., Venezuela, the Western Hemisphere, and the cause of responsible democratic self-governance.

Are there the right people in the right place to take advantage of this opportunity in a positive manner?

Known unknown.