The PRC's New Spring, with Dean Cheng on Midrats
...assumptions and friends are changing...
The first quarter of 2026 still has three weeks to go, but the assumptions and friend group of the People’s Republic of China has changed dramatically.
Recent changes in the assumptions concerning Venezuela, Iran, Japan, and other nations will impact the national security concerns of the West’s greatest challenger on the world stage.
Returning to the Midrats Podcast today from 5-6 PM Eastern to discuss will be Dean Cheng.
Dean is a Non-resident Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies and Non-resident Fellow, George Washington University Space Policy Institute.
He recently retired after 14 years with the Heritage Foundation, where he was a senior research fellow on Chinese political and security affairs, and wrote on various aspects of Chinese foreign and defense policy.
Prior to joining the Heritage Foundation, he was a senior analyst with the China Studies Division (previously, Project Asia) at CNA from 2001-2009. Before joining CNA, he was a senior analyst with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) from 1996-2001. From 1993-1995, he was an analyst with the US Congress’ Office of Technology Assessment in the International Security and Space Division, where he studied the Chinese defense industrial complex.
He is the author of the book Cyber Dragon: Inside China’s Information Warfare and Cyber Operations (NY: Praeger Publishing, 2016), as well as a number of papers and book chapters examining various aspects of Chinese security affairs.
You can listen to the podcast at this link, or via the Spotify widget below.
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An Army at Dawn, by Rick Atkinson
Summary
In this episode, Dean Cheng discusses China’s strategic posture, military reforms, cyber capabilities, and the implications of recent global events on China’s long-term plans. We explore China’s economic outlook, military modernization, regional influence, and the impact of purges within the PLA.
Chapters
00:00: Introduction and Context of Global Tensions
03:01: China’s Strategic Position and Five-Year Plan
07:07: Defense Spending and Global Security Concerns
10:05: China’s Vulnerabilities and Energy Security
11:44: Military Purges and Leadership Control
18:22: Military Readiness and Combat Experience
23:27: Testing Chinese Military Equipment in Conflicts
28:45: Global Arms Market and Strategic Alliances
30:24: Military Culture and Learning from Underperformance
32:57: Training and Realistic Combat Experience
35:40: Cyber Warfare and Electronic Warfare Concerns
38:05: Regional Conflicts and China’s Diplomatic Stance
40:46: China’s Image and Political Warfare
44:48: Shifts in Global Alliances and Economic Influence
47:34: The Importance of Economic Engagement
50:25: China’s Diplomatic Approach to Neighbors
54:16: Cyber Threats and Infrastructure Vulnerabilities
This should be interesting. IMO, one of the greatest attributes a leader and analyst should possess is constantly re-assessing the environment of today and seeking to improve predictability for tomorrow. Too often we DON'T reassess, and continue to work on problems that no longer exist, or fail to recognize genuine new problems that need addressing. Nuclear proliferation in Asia is an example. Western governments with nuclear capability becoming Islamist adjacent if not outright Islamist (looking at you UK and France...) is another.
Dean Cheng leads the Warlord Loop, an invitation only group of national security professionals. Try to get an invitation—Dean’s analyses are priceless.