The Third Winter of the Three-Week War

if you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention

The ground in Ukraine will soon firm up as this grinding war enters its third winter.

1,007 days, and here we are.

I haven’t written all that much about the Russo-Ukrainian War as of late. The Gaza War has taken up a lot of the available space and the slaughter in Ukraine has become almost part of the international background noise. I don’t think it will remain in the background. As the map shows above, the lines have “cleaned themselves up,” both nations are exhausting themselves, and at least the West is tiring of supporting Ukraine’s fight against all odds against a characteristically persistent Russia.

There are too many things aligning.

1. The belligerents are running out of people.

2. The belligerents are running out of weapons.

3. Ukraine’s large backers have clay feet and other interests. Country by country, war-skeptical political parties in Europe are gaining popularity.

4. Both sides are simply waiting for the other to collapse. Neither seems willing to do it.

5. Russia is advancing slowly with huge losses; Ukraine isn’t, with huge losses.

What to watch as we approach the third anniversary of the war’s start:

1. What will happen with a winter offensive, if there is one, from either side?

2. What will Trump do to operationalize his “end the war” campaign promise?

3. What will happen with the snap German election that seems destined to come in ‘25?

We need to remember what this war is about. Since 2014, this has been an aggressive manifestation of Russian imperialism, trying to claw back what the Romanovs and Communists clawed away from their neighbors over centuries. It is also part of a long-suffering people, Ukrainians, who just want to have self-determination inside internationally recognized borders that they were promised would be respected.

Russia initial plan for a quick war failed, and now we have a long war. A long war is about will. Who is willing to endure the most for the longest with the greatest cost? If one nation can employ overwhelming power, get their opponent to lose the ability to find forces and material, perhaps a bit of luck, and on occasion—exceptional leadership—then you can have a victory. If not, then it is simply the last nation standing.

As we find ourselves in November however, as much as it pains someone who has supported Ukraine since 2014, the scoreboard is not looking all that good for the plucky Ukrainians.

Russia is making slow but steady gains. Whereas Ukraine’s supporters in Western Europe and North America are losing interest in Ukrainian victory, Russia’s allies in Iran, North Korea, and China are growing in interest for Russia’s victory.

The collective West still, after years, is not playing to win. It isn’t just the tragically comical late-in-the-day delivery and use-authorization of weapons, it is recognizing that the world is not what they thought it was.

Russia appears on track to produce nearly three times more artillery munitions than the US and Europe, ...

Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN.

The US military set a goal to produce 100,000 rounds of artillery a month by the end of 2025 — less than half of the Russian monthly output …

The Institute for the Study of War over on X outlines well what kid of winter offensive the Russians might have up their sleeve to set the conditions for the most beneficial circumstances for them in case there is a spring peace conference…or…if they are lucky…find a way to break through the stressed Ukrainian front at last.

Russian advances in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka directions present the Russian military command with several courses of action (COAs) that the Russian command may attempt in the coming weeks and months.

The Russian military command appears to be simultaneously attempting to encircle Velyka Novosilka while closing pockets with Ukrainian forces north and south of Kurakhove. - Russian forces are also pursuing supporting COAs to improve Russia’s battlefield geometry in southern Donetsk Oblast and reduce threats to Russian flanks.

COA 1: Russian forces advance southwest, east, and northeast of Velyka Novosilka to envelop the settlement from its flanks, bypassing the area immediately south of Velyka Novosilka.

COA 2: Russian forces advance to Andriivka (along the H15 highway and west of Kurakhove) from the south in support of Russian efforts to close the Ukrainian pockets near Kurakhove and level the frontline

COA 3: Russian forces advance west and southwest from Selydove along the Pustynka-Sontsivka line in the direction of Andriivka to collapse the Ukrainian pocket north of Kurakhove and threaten Ukrainian egress routes.

ISW presents the following COAs in no particular order, as each can be mutually beneficial, and none of these COAs are mutually exclusive. It remains unclear which of the COAs the Russian command will pursue, if any.

Both the Ukrainians and Russians, but especially the Ukrainians, have surprised The Smartest People in the Room™ a few times this war, so all or none of the above may happen, but I am sure there will be some kind of winter offensive that will leave the Trump administration with a slightly different challenge by the time they take power on the 20th of January.

Let’s focus on the big player here, the United States. We are in that shadow zone between administrations that is throwing confusion all over the place. The outgoing Biden administration is giving a green range to the Ukrainians in a way that they should have been provided years ago, but of course, those who wanted to “manage escalation” insisted that tricks they learned at Model UN before their senior year in high school would really work this time in the real world.

While that is playing out, a lot of people between DC and Brussels are believing what they are reading on WaPo and NYT about the incoming Trump administration. Never a good idea.

Does Trump want to end the Russo-Ukrainian War? He has said he does. Does that mean he will just walk away? I don’t think so.

If Russia does not want to play, I think the exact opposite might happen. He is not building a team of squishes. As our friend John Noonan said,

“Based on his nominees, I think Trump is building a FAFO foreign policy,” John Noonan, a senior adviser to @polarisnatsec, told the Caller. “We want peace. But if you F around with the United States, be ready to find out.”

In Europe, France and the UK are talking a talk, but neither has any ability or desire to walk a walk that could make any difference this late in the day.

There are no "red lines" when it comes to support for Ukraine, the French Foreign Minister has told the BBC.

Jean-Noël Barrot said that Ukraine could fire French long-range missiles into Russia "in the logics of self defence", but would not confirm if French weapons had already been used.

"The principle has been set... our messages to President Zelensky have been well received," he said in an exclusive interview for Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg.

French President Macron indicated France's willingness to allow its missiles to be fired into Russia earlier this year. But Barrot’s comments are significant, coming days after US and UK long-range missiles were used in that way for the first time.

Barrot, who held talks with Foreign Secretary David Lammy in London on Friday, said Western allies should not put any limits on support for Ukraine against Russia, and "not set and express red lines".

Asked if this could even mean French troops in combat he said: "We do not discard any option."

"We will support Ukraine as intensely and as long as necessary. Why? Because it is our security that is at stake. Each time the Russian army progresses by one square kilometre, the threat gets one square kilometre closer to Europe," he said.

Sadly, we have yet to hear from the Kingdom of Sardinia.

Again, we are about to enter the 4th year of this war. Where is everyone and everything? I can’t get over the word, “intensely” by the French above.

France, is that you at 0.02%

Let’s see how that translates in to dollars.

If you add in the 2024 numbers, I don’t think the story changes all that much.

To wind things up, where does that leave Ukraine and Russia?

I throw out three macro-COAs.

COA A: Race to Set the Table: everyone assumes that the drive to the negotiation table will be unavoidable. Trump will tell Ukraine to come to the table or we end aid. Europe will shrug its shoulders and tells the Ukrainians they can’t cover that play should the Americans walk away. Trump tells Russia to come to the table or the gloves are off and we will flood Ukraine with all the weapons they want. Europe nods its head and mumbles, “Us too.” This winter, the goal will be for Russia to take as much of Donbas that it can. For Ukraine, it will be to somehow stop Russia from doing that and perhaps look for another land grab offensive.

COA B: Play Endurance Chicken: neither side can find an opening. Negotiations go nowhere. American and European support is sufficient to sustain Ukraine’s resistance, but not enough to enable further advancements. Support to Russia from her friends does not radically change facts on the ground. Both are running out of people to throw at each other. Someone will collapse … that is the plan; to be the last one to collapse.

COA C: Last Chance Power Drive: someone sees an opportunity, thinks they can make one, or like the Ardennes Offensive, one or both sides finds their version of it…

COA C is the darkest COA. It had me thinking of a war most Americans have no idea even played out in our hemisphere, just 154 years ago.

The six-year War of the Triple Alliance (1864-1870), in which Paraguay confronted the combined forces of Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay, had inflicted apocalyptic damage on the landlocked nation.

Roughly two-thirds of Paraguay’s population perished during the conflict, including around 90% of its men. Brazil and Argentina would go on to annex enormous swaths of Paraguayan territory.

Yes, look at that again. A Western nation, in the modern era.

Two-thirds of its population killed. 90% of its men. No driving political movement like Communism or National Socialism driving it, just pigheaded, brainstem war. It is all well documented. Look it up.

Human are capable of great things, but that is not our core nature. We are a warlike people, and in the brainstem of all of us, when properly heated and focused, is a monster of our worst nightmares.

We have in the past and will forever, now and then create rivers of blood, pyramids of skulls, and allow ourselves to justify the annihilation of almost every living fellow human who we see on the other side of the field of battle.

We cannot force the Russians and Ukrainians to make peace if they don’t want to make peace. Neither of these people are soft or lack a history of sacrifice. Russians and Ukrainians are almost bothers, not unlike to common cultures and backgrounds of 19th Century Brazilians, Argentinians, Uruguayans, and Paraguayans. That does not make them less likely to fight, but when they do fight, it is a special kind of brutal fighting that we should understand, but perhaps don’t anymore.

The American Civil War was the greatest loss of life of any war the USA has been in. The Spanish Civil War was a phantasmagoric experience. There is no reason the Russo-Ukrainian War may not slog on along the same lines.

Let’s see what this winter brings. Let’s see if the Trump administration can convince the Ukrainians and Russians to find someway to meet in the middle. If they can’t find peace today—then everyone needs to be sober about what will follow. A fallen Ukraine will unsettle Central Europe and embolden Russia for a generation. A defeated Russia will devolve in to Russian chaos that could go all sorts of bad directions. A negotiated peace will perhaps buy time, but … that is about it. Demographics have even darker things in story for Central and Eastern Europe come mid-century.

There is no peaceful easy ending here. There is a narrow path to one, but it is unlikely, unseen, and is hidden in a forrest of bad outcomes.

Jesus Jones needs a new song.

History is reasserting itself.