The U.S. is Failing its Own NATO Talking Point

...money talks, and we're letting that slip away...

As the NATO Summit is ongoing, I think it is time for me and my American readers to have an adult conversation with each other, like adults. Calm, short, and to the point.

If you have honored me with your visits for very long, you will know that for over two decades I have been pointing out the disgraceful level of free-riding our allies in NATO made a habit of. I saw it in person in its worst ways as a NATO staff officer in Europe and Afghanistan, as I wrote about it at the time. Since I returned home, I have returned to the subject on a regular basis.

It would be an understatement to say that I have been exceptionally pleased to hear the argument brought to a wider audience over the last decade, and it was President Trump who never let that message go unheard. Agree with him or disagree with him—in whole, in part, or not at all—it has been his pressure, along with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, that pushed the alliance towards getting everyone to at least a fair share.

Some just across the old baseline of 2%, but they’re there.

The 2% was the pre-2022 mark, however. There is a new standard.

NATO Allies are increasing their investment in defence to ensure that they have the forces and capabilities needed to defend every inch of Allied territory. At the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, Allies committed to investing 5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in defence, strengthening their armed forces and ensuring fairer burden-sharing for Allies on both sides of the Atlantic. To that end, European Allies and Canada have been stepping up, increasing their combined defence expenditure by nearly 20% in real terms in 2025 compared to 2024.

The 5% Hague defence commitment

At the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, Allies committed to investing 5% of GDP annually on defence by 2035. This 5% commitment includes two essential categories of defence investment:

• Core defence requirements: Firstly, Allies agreed to allocate at least 3.5% of GDP to resource core defence requirements and to meet the NATO Capability Targets, based on the agreed definition of NATO defence expenditure (see below). Allies agreed to submit annual plans showing a credible, incremental path to reach this goal.

• Defence- and security-related spending: Secondly, Allies will account for up to 1.5% of GDP on broader defence- and security-related investments, for example to protect critical infrastructure, defend networks, ensure civil preparedness and resilience, innovate, and strengthen the defence industrial base.

In 2025, European Allies and Canada increased their defence expenditure by over USD 90 billion (in 2021 prices, or close to USD 139 billion in nominal terms) – a nearly 20% increase compared to 2024. Over the past decade, they have steadily increased their collective investment in defence – from 1.4% of their combined GDP in 2014, to 2.3% in 2025, when they invested a combined total of more than USD 571 billion (in 2021 prices) in defence.

The trajectory and balance of spending under this plan will be reviewed in 2029, in light of the strategic environment and updated Capability Targets.

This is when we need to start to have our adult conversation.

The USA is at the cusp of no longer having the moral high ground to complain about free riding allies in general. Specifically for those nations just hugging the 2% line, sure. We can no longer make a general statement. Denmark, Norway, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland are all doing more than we are from a relative effort point of view.

For the record, I am not at all interested in arguing about this graph; it misses the point.

We are a large, rich country with well-paid labor, environmental laws, and fairly transparent numbers you can rely on. We are quite happy to trade money for bodies. Apply that against any of these other nations. We also have global responsibilities and alliances—that we take seriously—that these other nations don’t have.

No, what we need to understand is that if we want to be known as the, “Leader of the Free World” or want to ensure that the international order evolves in line with our vision—and the interplanetary order is set by our values and requirements—then we must remain the dominant power.

If we want to lead our allies, we have to lead from the front. Being tied for #5 with Denmark on “doing our fair share” is not going to cut it…and our standing is about to get worse.

Although the United States continues to spend much more on defense than any other country, CBO currently projects that defense spending as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) will decline over the coming years — from 2.8 percent of GDP in 2026 to 2.4 percent in 2036. That is significantly lower than the 50-year average level of defense spending of 4.1 percent of GDP, though subject to change in future appropriation cycles, reflecting lawmakers’ assessments of national security and geopolitical needs.

I mentioned earlier we were “on the cusp.” If Congress does not allocate more funds for defense, that cusp will turn over and any complaints we might have about allied contributions to collective defense will at first ring hollow, and then drift into hypocrisy. That is the point where your influence wanes as it always does with declining powers.

Decline is a choice. So is this.

Only one NATO nation since 2014 has decreased its military spending as a percentage of GDP. That nation is the United States of America.

That is while our primary competitor on the world stage, the People’s Republic of China, continue to grow in real and perceived military power.

We need to stop making comments about responsible spending towards Brussels, and instead, start directing it towards the Executive and Legislative Branches in DC. We must put our money where our mouth is.

Leaders lead and advance. At this snapshot in time, America is not leading, we’re lagging.