The Venezuelan Raid...on Midrats
...what is means and what's next...
With a few days now behind us, most of the general facts are in on our raid into Caracas, Venezuela to capture Nicolás Maduro and, it appears, his wife as well.
Now that Maduro is a guest of the Southern District of New York, it is time to not just look at some of the details of the buildup and execution of this raid, but the initial lessons we can take from it, and what it means in the larger strategic environment.
You can listen at this link or at the Spotify widget below.
Summary
In this episode of Midrats, Mark and Sal discuss the recent military operation in Venezuela, reflecting on its execution and implications for national security. They explore the potential for Venezuela’s recovery, the role of governance, and the international reactions to the operation. The conversation also touches on the economic impact of Venezuelan oil, China’s influence in the region, and the effectiveness of international organizations like the UN.
Takeaways
The military operation in Venezuela was well-planned and executed.
The ages of service members involved ranged from 20 to 49.
Venezuela has the potential for economic recovery if governance improves.
China’s influence in Latin America poses challenges for U.S. interests.
The UN’s effectiveness in international law is questioned.
Venezuelan oil could impact global energy prices.
The operation sends a strong signal to adversaries.
Governance and rule of law are crucial for Venezuela’s future.
The U.S. military’s capabilities are unmatched globally.
The situation in Venezuela is a test for U.S. foreign policy.
Chapters
00:00: New Year, New Beginnings
02:11: Operation in Venezuela: A Military Success
09:36: Venezuela’s Future: Opportunities and Challenges
16:25: International Reactions and Implications
23:08: The Role of Governance in Venezuela’s Recovery
28:16: The Economic Impact of Venezuelan Oil
36:38: China’s Influence and Global Fishing Rights
43:17: The UN and International Law: A Critical View
48:38: Looking Ahead: The Path for Venezuela
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqP6MkCmqgs
Attached link is from an interview conducted several days before we executed the operation. Provides an excellent perspective from a Venezuelan refugee with insights into the western perspective as well. Have to observe our opsec on this was...very good at the moment of impact. Not notifying congress might, just might, possibly have had something to do with that. The interview helps with the why. Stating the obvious, the "what now" is key, as it will be a case study on whether or not we learned from Iraq and Afghanistan. Given the administration's efforts to re-orient the IC and State departments, partial though it may be, perhaps we have moved out of the "extracting profit from our managed decline for our personal gain and our buddies" and into some sort of planned future for the nation and hemisphere. As always, "We'll see".
We've been wondering for some time what President Trump's hemispheric defense strategy actually looks like. Important details are beginning to emerge.
OK ..... The takedown of Maduro & Company has a solid legal foundation, one which will stand up to the inevitable challenges filed in the courts. However, the practical reality is that the US has invaded Venezuela and will be occupying that country until new elections can be held. It's a done deal at this point. Clutch as many pearls as anyone wants to, there is no going back.
An insurgency led by the big losers of the US invasion/occupation is sure to emerge.
When it does, President Trump and his defacto interim president of Venezuela, Marco Rubio, must take a lesson from past history in Iraq -- i.e., Bush 43's abject failure post invasion to properly manage the occupation -- and to quickly and ruthlessly suppress any insurgency which might develop.