The View from the High North
yes, that's a dragon behind the bear
Let’s start the week with the Norwegian Intelligence Service’s assessment of current security challenges titled “2024 Focus.”
First of all - you have to love the cover art. Well done.
They name names here which is helpful. As usual, I like to do number counts.
Naturally, the Norwegians lead with Russia (300 mentions), but what is interesting is that their second focus is the People’s Republic of China (125 mentions), then Iran (42 mentions), and in a smaller corner the troubles in the Middle East (23 mentions) and then terrorism (5 mentions).
Israel gets 17 mentions. Hamas 8 mentions. Syria 6 mentions.
The United States of America gets 14 mentions, NATO 15 mentions.
Nuclear gets 56 mentions. Biological and chemical weapons share one tiny paragraph.
Nowhere do they mention 2%, and “Defence Budget” (yes, the British spelling) only gets 4 mentions. Shame really. Yes, Norway has been in the cone of shame on defense spending, only getting 1.6% of GDP last year. Earlier this summer they promised to reach 2% by 2026. However, appears Russia’s ongoing imperial war of aggression in Ukraine has focused the mind and they promise to reach that in 2024.
As Norway is a relatively small country of 5.4 million souls, .38 of 1% of China and located on the other side of the planet, I thought it would be interesting to see why China is #2 on their list.
I like their little graphics, and unabashed use of Courier New font;
BTW, is that one bad guy enjoying a lung dart?
Before they even get into their dedicated China section, their preview is good stuff.
China does not constitute a military threat to Norway, but it has an interest in establishing a political, economic and, in time, military foothold in the Arctic. Recent investments in polar capabilities, including icebreakers, have given China the opportunity to operate more independently in the region.
…
Chinese intelligence services operate all over Europe. Their activities include political intelligence and industrial espionage, and cyberspace is the main gateway. Chinese intelligence services use a combination of actions to keep their activities and objectives concealed, such as commonly available tools and digital infrastructure that conceal the actor.
Chinese services also have source handlers in Europe. Chinese diplomats, travel delegations, private individuals, businesses and special interest groups regularly carry out assignments on behalf of Chinese services. There are close links between Chinese intelligence services and Chinese corporate entities.
Beijing has the institutional resources and legal framework to use Chinese businesses and individuals for government purposes. All Chinese companies and individuals are required by law to assist China’s intelligence and security services.
This is a good document and what I would expect from the Norwegians. Quality people.
I highly recommend you take some time to give it a read to get another perspective - even if they are an ally.
I think this is a big deal:
"A significant share of the gas consumed in Germany, UK, Belgium and France comes from Norway. The gas infrastructure could be subject to accidents, physical sabotage and destructive cyberattacks. Damage to Norwegian petroleum infrastructure would harm both Norway and the receiving countries in Europe.
Russia has been mapping Norwegian critical oil and gas infrastructure for years"
I suspect the Norwegians remember how WW2 kicked off and don’t want to be relegated to the sidelines with a “gift” of a minesweeper by FDR in exchange for “companionship” by the Norwegian queen.