Tower 22's White Swan

only a matter of time

In addition to the loss of two SEALs we discussed last week, over the weekend Iranian proxies conducted a highly successful attack at the “Tower 22” base in NE Jordan near the three-country point where the borders of Jordan, Iraq, and Syria come together.

"Today, America’s heart is heavy," Biden said in a statement Sunday. "Last night, three U.S. service members were killed—and many wounded—during an unmanned aerial drone attack on our forces stationed in northeast Jordan near the Syria border."

As Kristina Wong has done a good job keeping everyone up to speed, there have been over 170 attacks on US forces in the area by Iranian proxies, and in this latest attack, in addition to the three killed, over 30 were injured, some critically.

It is a very old-school desert fort but with helo pads. Heck, Roman Emperor Trajan in the second century AD would recognize it. If my mental map serves me right, this would have been right on his right flank inside Parthian territory. A few centuries later, it would have been off the right flank of Roman Emperor Julian’s expedition against the Sasanian Empire.

That is not a large base, but it does stand out. The Iranian proxies got a little good, and a little lucky.

As I write this, we have not had those killed identified, but a good chance they come from the California National Guard’s 40th Infantry Division that deployed in June of last year;

The California National Guard’s 40th Infantry Division held a historical deployment ceremony before mobilizing to support Operation Spartan Shield and Operation Inherent Resolve, missions to build partner capacity and increase regional security in the Middle East.

The 40th ID has not deployed as a division since the Korean War in January 1952. The division fought valiantly through four campaigns and continues to keep close ties with the Korean community and Korean War veterans.

Today, the Sunburst Division will deploy Soldiers across the Middle East, including Iraq, Jordan and Kuwait.

UPDATE: The three Soldiers killed were Army Reserve members of the 718th Engineer Company, 926th Engineer Battalion, 926th Engineer Brigade from Georgia.

Before we go further, there is something in the above I want you to hoist aboard; we have an entire division of a state’s National Guard deployed - and being killed and wounded - to in part ensure the borders and territorial integrity of nations in the Middle East. Our active duty army is not engaged in any significant combat operations. None. Is this what we have a National Guard for?

Anyway, ponder that as we move on to the topic of the day - Iran.

A key part of the US’ work in the Middle East is “not to have the conflict broaden,” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. CQ Brown said in a pre-recorded interview that just aired on ABC News Sunday morning.

Brown said the goal was deterrence of Iranian proxies operating in the region, like the Houthi rebels in Yemen and the powerful Hezbollah paramilitary group in Lebanon.

“The goal is to deter them, and we don't want to go down a path of greater escalation that drives to a much broader conflict within the region,” he said.

Attacks before Sunday: There have been dozens of injuries since recent attacks on US and coalition forces in Iraq and Syria began — a senior military official told reporters last week there were roughly 70. The Pentagon had previously classified most of them as minor, aside from one US soldier who was critically injured in an attack in Iraq on Christmas Day.

Well General Brown, you means is not successfully bringing you to your ends. Your entire CONOPS is failing.

Let’s stop there and bring in an important point - the US military can only execute an Operational Plan (OPLAN) that is aligned with the Commander’s Intent (from the President) and at Brown’s level, the Political-Military Higher Direction and Guidance.

As you cannot build brick without straw, you cannot create an effective OPLAN. This administration, as I’ll address again at the end of the post, has no institutional desire to do anything more than the very minimum against Iran.

Before we go there, let’s look at a few things from Peter Baker at NYT about the attacks that came out Sunday;

This was the day that President Biden and his team had feared for more than three months, the day that relatively low-level attacks by Iranian proxy groups on American troops in the Middle East turned deadly and intensified the pressure on the president to respond in kind.

On land and at sea, Iranian proxies have attacked us over 170 times. American deaths were inevitable…but it shouldn’t take deaths for us to respond. As we have outlined from the start, just the act of attacking US military units demands an overwhelming response. We have done just the opposite. Until that math changes, the attacks will continue.

The first deaths of American troops under fire, however, will require a different level of response, American officials said, and the president’s advisers were in consensus about that as they consulted with him by secure videoconference on Sunday. What remained unclear was whether Mr. Biden would strike targets inside Iran itself, as his Republican critics urged him to do, saying he would be a “coward” if he did not, as one put it.

“The question Biden faces is whether he just wants to react to events in the region or whether he wants to send a bigger message that attempts to restore a sense of deterrence that just hasn’t existed in the region for months now,” said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute who worked in national security positions under President Bill Clinton.

If I am wrong in this assumption, then fire the entire Joint Staff above CDR/LtCol, but I am quite sure we have an entire catalog of pre-planned responses and target sets ready to go and have for quite a while. This is not a military problem; this is a leadership, vision, and understanding of how the world works problem. Elections have consequences, and we are at the mercy of those appointed by those we elect.

American officials have said for months that they did not believe Iran wanted a direct war with the United States and on Sunday had not changed that assessment publicly. But at the same time, officials said, Iran has used its proxy forces to keep up the pressure on the United States and Israel as Israel continues to pound Hamas in Gaza.

One senior American official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information, said on Sunday that the United States did not believe that Iran was intending to start a wider war with the attack in Jordan. But he cautioned that analysts were still gathering and evaluating the information available to determine whether Iran ordered a more aggressive attack or a militia group decided to do so on its own.

“…believe…” belongs in the same bucket as “…think…” and “…feel…” and has little to no place in discussions with serious people in the national security arena for times such as this.

I am more interested in what you “…know…” What are our opponents doing, and what is your estimate of their most likely, most dangerous - and perhaps one other in the middle - courses of action they are conducting? It is called the “Estimate of the Situation” as opposed to the “Belief/Thought/Feel of the Situation” for a reason.

This administration - encouraged by the leftist bent of much of the permanent nomenklatura at the Department of Defense and Department of State - is worm-ridden with the most wooly-headed and intellectual-terrarium faculty lounge theories of how the world works that it is no wonder that the proxy forces of a third-rate power like Iran has them vapor-locked.

Sadly for our republic, there are even worse ideas coming from the right;

Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, said flatly: “Hit Iran now. Hit them hard.”

I’ve seen the work, now a decade and a half dated, on what a conflict with Iran would look like. We are weaker and they are stronger now, no one wants to go feet dry in Iran. Senator Graham has received the briefings - he should know this.

As shown by Katulis above, there are (D) with reasonable views of what is going on right now. Likewise, there are some (R) who seem to get it as well.

Nested around Graham’s comment was this;

“The entire world now watches for signs that the president is finally prepared to exercise American strength to compel Iran to change its behavior,” said Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Republican leader. …

Republicans argued that Mr. Biden had emboldened Iran by appeasing the mullahs of Tehran. They cited his efforts to negotiate a new agreement with Iran curbing its nuclear weapons program and a deal securing the release of five imprisoned Americans in exchange for helping Iran access $6 billion of its own oil money that had already been promised to Tehran for humanitarian purposes under a policy approved under former President Donald J. Trump. That money was frozen days after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, which is backed by Iran.

That quote is spot on.

In the middle - as usual - of the two extremes is the best approach. We need to stop appeasing and funding the Iranians, and we also don’t need another land war in Southwest Asia.

As I mentioned briefly on yesterday’s Midrats, we need to be careful that as we do what needs to be done, we also don’t need to give Iran what they clearly want. What do they want? Simple; either a wider war along all of Israel’s borders that will suck in the USA, or if they cannot get that, simply humiliate the USA while isolating Israel further.

The Iranians are failing in the former, but succeeding in the latter. What we need to do is make sure that we prevent them from achieving their end state of American humiliation. After the disgrace in Kabul, we’ve had enough of that recently.

We do not have to go feet dry in Iran proper. She has a whole constellation of proxies on the Arabian peninsula and into Asia Minor. We have been dealing with them for decades. We know where they get their supplies. We have a good idea where their bases are, and who their leadership is.

Right now they are attacking Americans because it is worth it for them to. The benefit is much greater than the cost. Step one should be a significantly out-of-proportion attack on Iran’s proxies from Syria to Yemen. A sustained campaign. Should that not work, the next level should be Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps naval assets operating in the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea and Horn of Africa providing targeting information to the Houthi.

Once we fully examine those options, then we can look elsewhere … and then decide not to do more, but make our point first.

What we are doing now? No, we can stop that. It only encourages them.