From the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War, one of the best briefers was and continues to be Colonel (General Staff) Markus Reisner, AUT A.
If you’ve been avoiding a direct discussion of what happened - or did not happen - in Ukraine this summer, well … tough. You have to watch anyway.
This is worth every second of the 27+-minutes.
I will keep saying this until my last breath: war remains war. It is will, mass, culture, and capability.
Nothing is written. Nothing is granted. Decision makers at peace are usually surrounded by advisors who are telling them what they want to hear, not what they need to hear.
If you plan for a short war, you will get a long war whose outcome is uncertain. If you prepare for a long war, you have a chance to end it quickly on your terms.
Also, America can be a fickle friend. Always has been; always will be. Plan for it.
Our history over the last hundred years or so has been not just fickle, but openly untrustworthy. Ever since we sent troops into Russia during WWI we’ve abandoned not only our Allie’s, but our own troops to political expediency. It is shameful how many of our allies and own citizens we’ve left to fend for themselves. Honestly, all of our treaties should come with a warning label.
In the old days (late 70s thru 91, yes, I'm that old) we used to talk about the "threat". Threat was simplistically defined as Threat = Capability times intent. A strong force with no desire or perceived desire by the adversary that it would be used was low threat.
Russia was a perceived / declared huge threat, and obviously had the will to use their force. Apparently the capability of the Russian armed forces was poorly assessed, or the UKR forces exceeded all expectations on the upside.
We don't know, because the lack of actual accurate information is glaring.
America has proven to be an unreliable ally since 91 (arguably before that, yes, we can argue).
In the old bipolar world, threat estimation was easy, if not accurate.
Today, in a truly multipolar world, threat estimation is very hard, and also likely not accurate.
Why? When we have so much information, is it so hard? To steal (and mangle a quote), it's not what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just isn't so.
Information / influence operations have become the new critical component in the shaping of national public opinion. By definition public support for national participation in UKR, the middle east, Pacific theater are now largely driven by social media. AI use, misinformation, disinformation, propaganda are shaping things in ways we don't realize, or understand if we do realize they are being used.
I'd view this video as possibly honest and true, or a tiny piece of a larger influence campaign.
Couldn't tell you which one it is.