I think China's CCP still wants revenge for the Opium Wars. The rest of the world has much longer memories than the USA. I was in England from 1996-1999 and WWII was like yesterday for my elderly neighbors. The woman down the street worked in an aircraft factory and still was talking about the experience. My neighbor behind me was a boy in 1944 and had vivid memories. Another lady at church worked in radar with the wrens and still had a grudge against the Germans. The usher at church wore his Burma campaign ribbon to Mass every Sunday. They had not forgotten, and I'm sure the Chinese boomers and later generations were thoroughly indoctrinated against the western powers (especially the UK) and the Japanese.
The CCP has risen to dizzying heights to foster hatred against the Japanese. Hatred is indoctrinated into the young from kindergarten upward. Frankly, they also indoctrinated hatred toward the United States. In fact, it is not unusual to see school-age youth stomping on Japanese and American flags; in some areas, they are painted on the ground.
Considering that the Chinese Communists did not do much to fight the Japanese, they used that period to create an outside enemy, just like other dictatorships have done.
General Secretary Xi also uses the phrase "End of a Century of Shame." This period includes the loss of territory to Russia and the granting of concessions by the emperors and empresses to the Western Powers. An interesting phrase, given that modern Chinese history began in 1949, and anything before that was destroyed by the Communists under Mao.
It's strange that Beijing, in its anti-Japanese and anti-American nationalism education and push, did not count Russia as a historical enemy. Czarist Russia took 1 million square km of land from the Qing Dynasty in the Amur Annexation campaign, under the pretext of trying to protect China from other Western powers, and yet abrogated its promises of protection for the late Qing Dynasty.
Is the Lennist milk flowing in the vein of CCP China, preventing it from staking claims on those lost territories to Russia?.
I don't think Mao even brought it up to Krushchev.
So when it comes to territorial claw back from the Russians, the Chinese are just behaving like a tamed poodle rather than some wolf warriors.
I am sure the Kremlin is happy to keep the feeling that way: "US and Japan bad, Russia good"
It's complicated. The Amur territories weren't exactly Chinese in first place. The were Manchurian, and Qing dynasty was a Manchurian conquerors who established themselves as rulers of China. They were... not exactly well-loved by the majority of Chinese population (whom Qing viewed as second-class citizens, with Manchurians holding all positions of power). So Amur territories aren't what most Chinese peoples view as "their own". While there ARE fringe nationalist movement that clamored for expansion to Siberia, most of Chinese population just didn't view this as any matter of importance.
The most recent Chinese map, based on 'historical' territory claims, the 10-dash line, reclaims that territory, including Vladivostok.
The new historical claim is an indicator of the CCP's long-term strategy. The Kremlin did not publicly push back because it is the junior partner in the relationship.
The new Chinese map doesn't claim Vladivostok but portrays Bolshoy Ussuriysky, known in China as Heixiazi (Black Bear) Island, as entirely within Chinese territory. The island, which sits at the confluence of the Ussuri and Amur rivers, has been jointly owned since the two neighbors reached a border agreement in 2008.
True. However, the CCP has gone overboard. In 'summer camp' attendees literally perform bayonet practice (real bayonets) on dummies dressed in WWII uniforms.
From an economic standpoint, it is counterintuitive to foster such hatred toward a country that has made substantial capital investments in it.
However, even before the PM's comment on the strategic threat a cross-strait invasion would have, the threats from the 'Little Pinks' were causing Japanese living in the PRC for business to leave. The increasingly anti-Japan aggression, as official policy, has resulted in Japanese firms exiting, contributing to capital flight and adding thousands to the pool of unemployed.
Cdr-appreciate you sir. Where can a map showing the East China Sea/South China Sea to include the Bashi Channel be obtained with demonstrable ranges of weapons systems such as typhoons etc. Can the Marine littoral regiments get to the fight or is this Plan Orange all over again? I'm beginning to see why Pete Ellis needed a drink. Semper Gumby!
On the Taiwan-Japan connection - I was in Taichung in 2023 for the first round of the World Baseball Classic, and I stayed at the same hotel as the Cuba national team's staff. I had breakfast a few days with one of their Taiwanese interpreters...he told me his father always insisted he is not Chinese - he is Taiwanese and Japanese. Was forever grateful that Japan had given him an education. Another guy I met there from what amounts to the Taiwan chamber of commerce said "I think the Taiwanese people wish they were still part of Japan". Even things like the signs around Sun-Moon Lake, talking about the dams and infrastructure that Japan had built - got 0 sense of any animosity toward Japan
It never really struck me so clearly before, but that first island chain line on the map crystalized something for me as someone a little bit claustrophobic. If I was China and had the capability, I would have to put a significant hole in that line.
Please explain to me how Taiwan has any influence over what China might want to do in a move East? China would easily roll,over any Naval or other military presence that Taiwan might present. It would hardly be a bump for the Chinese Navy.
The hypocrisy of CCP run Bejing is rather blatant.
"1 unit of strength to fight the Japanese, 3 to fight Kuomintang, and 6 to build the party."
In the meantime, given the increasing presence of the Chinese and Russian militaries off the coast of Japan? It's time for Japan to further strengthen the military. Particularly if another weak man occupies the White House and renders the US an undependable treaty ally.
Japan remains totally dependent on maritime (and airborne) trade. As the U.S. Navy moves to second place to the PLAN, at least in terms of hulls, Japan pretty much has only two choices to deal with the sea-control requirements for them to not starve, either industrially or literally: Apply for client state status under the Middle Kingdom (which given Beijing still tightly clutching those grudges for the 1930s and ‘40s, ain’t gonna happen anyway), or make up the difference with the JMSDF. Their choosing the latter, especially as so many of those trade routes run within the first island chain, is pretty solidly reasonable.
The Japanese “don’t do anything to ever upset anyone” overarching political strategy was only sustainably workable under USN naval dominance in the Pacific. The challenge from the PLAN is more than just a direct challenge to the USN. As an unintended consequence of that PLAN expansion, the revitalization of a Japanese naval power projection capability has to rank right up there at the top of any “gee, maybe shoulda thought of that” list by the future historians of the CCP.
There have been rumors for decades that certain trickier components have been pre-built, and the resources needed to to machine and assemble an actual deliverable device have been identified and set aside, purely for research purposes of course, somewhere within the Japanese industrial research complex. Their various completely civilian launch vehicles featuring solid fuel boosters would do nicely as delivery vehicles. Thus, the rumor goes, for the Japanese at least, an intent decision could be very shortly followed by a real world capability.
Yes. The Japanese engineers are very proud of how fast those "civilian" solid fuel rockets can be launched from a cold start.
Across the strait, the South Koreans have SSKs sporting ballistic missile launch tubes. I would not be surprised at all if they are similarly developing the capability to deploy nuclear weapons in short order if necessary.
But that’s more an artifact of the old “stay home and don’t offend anyone” than the recent more expeditionary capabilities for the JMSDF. There are real domestic newkewler-bad barriers to publicly doing anything along those lines, such politics having been reinforced in recent political memory by the Fukushima event, but given the NORKS built them with stone knives and bearskins there can be little argument that the Japanese or South Koreans could if they decided to.
Due to geopolitical complexity and a lack of room to maneuver.
Taiwan nearly went nuclear in 1988 but got shut down. The US thought it could still rely on the PRC's help to rein in the Soviet Union, but that ended when the Soviet Union imploded. After that, PRC silently and covertly planned on its militaristic expansion, but it waited for its time to grow its strength by acquiring Western technology and capital. The US and the West foolishly gave it to them.
"... also favours revising Japan’s pacifist postwar constitution..."
This would be an immensely positive step for Japan. Most everything to her North, West and South(west) is decidedly dangerous..........and help is far, far away to her East. Time to ditch the "we don't want to rile anyone anymore" routine and re-visit some hard military Truth. Gear up and get ready.
Worked with the JSDF as a squadron commander. They have been, and suspect strongly still are well equipped, well trained, and logistically smart. Was not aware of the significantly different "attitudes" of the S.Koreans vs Taiwanese w/regard to Japan, but can understand it. The attitudes of the Chinese towards the Japanese (Nanking just one example), and S. Korea towards Japan (occupation, WWll) and China (Korean conflict) make the alliance discussion complicated to say the least.
Was an exchange student at the ROKAF Staff College with a Japanese ASDF pilot. One day he said he didn't see why the Koreans complained about the Japanese occupation so much because the Japanese built so many roads, factories, mines, etc. in Korea during that time. He hadn't heard about all of the oppression they imposed on the Koreans (nor the Japanese atrocities in China). He also thought we forced them (the Japanese) into WW2 by our actions. He was very pro-American by the way.
Well, to a large extent, we are all the products of what we are taught growing up. Unlike Germany, who apologized many times for their attrocities, it took Japan many decades to express their sorrow...not actually sure they ever did? So, no telling what their "history" looks like. IIRC, there were 100,000 deaths a month in the Far East Greater Prosperity Sphere at it's worst.
Historian Richard Frank calculates 240,000 per month during 1942-1945, mostly Chinese, southeast Asian, Indonesian and Filipino civilians. See his article "Counting All The Dead" in the August 2023 issue of American Heritage. That's an average; the actual time distribution skews towards 1944 and 1945.
I read Frank's "Downfall" a decade or more ago, using the information in it as facts to "persuade" one of my daughter's college professors that there was no need for the U.S. to apologize to Japan for bombing Hiroshima and Nagasaki. He never said he was "convinced", but did change the class assignment. IIRC, Frank may have started out as against using the weapons, but rapidly became convinced it was the right call. I may have that wrong.
I am on the tail end of a three-book recounting of the War in the Pacific, ("American Ceasar," the bio of MacArthur; "The Rising Sun," about the war from Japan's perpective, and now, "Embracing Defeat," about post-war Japan.) I might need to read "Downfall," also, to round out my perspective on the war's end.
Bombing Hiroshima and Nagasaki was the right call. Truman was prepared to continue with nuclear bombing, even though conventional incendiary bombing had already burned down much of Japan's major cities and industrial centers. Although Russia had declared war on Japan about 6 days prior to Hiroshima, I do not believe that Japan would have surrendered (at least, not as "soon" as it did) without the atomic bombings.
The "peace camp" within the Japanese government and military hierarchy was, indeed, seeking an end to the war, but the entire Japanese populace had been subject to at least 15 years of militaristic "die for the Emperor" indoctrination, and the centuries-old Japanese culture of honor made voluntary surrender extremely unlikely.
Even when Emperor Hirohito recorded his message of surrender to the Japanase people, he did not acknowledge unconditional surrender. Nor was Hirohito removed as a figurehead.
You would definitely want to read "Downfall" for Frank's perspective. He was the first U.S. historian to be given access to the emperor's diaries, and the insights provided by the emperor's own writings were quite conclusive that without the bombs, Japan's plan remained to "bleed" the allies into gaining favorable terms for the war's end. The book is a tome, but surprisingly readable. I credit Frank's writing style.
I took an automotive class on the GI bill alongside a Red Chinese Immigrant, he and his Cambodian wife had snuck out through Thailand.
He knew nothing of History, but he knew the Japanese war, and his old Militia rifle was an arisaki type 99. In china he was an auto mechanic. Nice fellow always jolly LOL.
"He knew nothing of History, but he knew the Japanese war,"
Much like the US. WWII is alive and well in the minds of most Americans, and certainly in the imaginations of American authors and film makers. You can't go into a bookstore without seeing books, even fiction, that feature Nazis or even an occasional swastika on the cover. And then there is the American Civil War, even more remote in history. Which brings to mind slavery, of course, which according to some is still a major sin/problem in the US.
Slavery is about the worst sin I have ever heard of.
The NAZI party was totally destroyed for that and hounded into oblivion, the North should have done the same with the democrat party of the rebellion to keep men and women slaves.
I am sure many Chinese, etc. think of the Japanese the same way the Jews think of the Nazis/Germans, for pretty much the same reasons. Can't say I blame them.
Maps are fantastic tools. We are approaching one of the annual weather periods the "experts" posit as favorable to China for an invasion. I can't help but feel uneasy, as the PLA planners look at the curves of their ability to attack and our ability to defend / hinder them. Yes, I'm concerned that "this is the best time" to attack, as we have bounced off the bottom and are beginning to get our act together. Have to note most (if not all) of the islands under discussion are within range of Chinese land based missiles. Given the constant "training exercises" conducted by the PLA, easy to get complacent and miss the signal when the fight actually starts...
Agree completely. Always thought the Navy we don't want to fight is Japan and the Air Force we don't want to fight is Israel. The latter is backed up by overheard conversations among Navy pilots in my first tour after carrier ops with Israeli air force.
Understand, CCP remembers what happened in Shanghai and Harbin. CCP will not forget what the Japanese did to their women! Very respectfully, Nurse Jane
Hard to say. Somebody above mentioned the Opium wars still linger with them and that’s not the first time I have heard that.
My dad was a shipyard worker during the war, finally retired in the mid-nineties. Dad and Mom both had excellent memories of the war years and it always held a large place in their mind (as well as their similar age relatives). To the point where I pretty much recall most of their views on it even though they both have been gone 20 years plus.
I should add that to them, FDR was the gold standard that nobody has matched since.
Still, the point above about what one is educated on while growing up is key I think to future and different attitudes forming. Time will tell.
Raises the question, is Taiwan’s best defense Japan or the USA? While US action in the event of a CCP attack on the island is hamstrung by distance and political resolve, Japan definitely doesn’t labor the former, and now appears to be more mindful of the latter.
Taiwan's best defense is...Taiwan. We can and should help, but they've gotta train and arm everybody capable and make the CCP know that they will fight to the last.
Taiwan is incapable to withstanding an attack by mainline China on its own, no matter preparation or resolve (unless they go nuclear which is highly unlikely). Its “best defense” is alignment with a superpower either directly or indirectly. Japan, not the US, is closest to harm and therefore would be would be the most concerned about the independence of the nation.
You may be correct about Taiwan being unable to withstand China. If that is so, I think even going nuclear won't save them, China would respond in kind and has a much bigger arsenal at the ready.
However...
What Taiwan can do is make is so that the cost of taking Taiwan becomes pyrrhic. Wound them so badly that the losses of all their little princes causes such rage in the population that the CCP is in danger. The Chinese don't act like they are casualty averse, but I am very sure that when the butcher's bill has to be paid it won't be pretty for them. Thus I suspect that the CCP is, in fact, casualty averse and if Taiwan shows resolve and probable skill, they will think twice. Especially if other countries come into the war against them.
IMHO, Taiwan should vote itself to be a protectorate or suzerainty state of the US.
That way, it can run its own local government and economy and leave the foreign policy and defense matters to the US.
This protectorate or suzerainty status can last till the geopolitical situation improves to the point that the Taiwanese can vote by referendum to be otherwise.
Forget about taking over Taiwan as the singular goal of the CCP. Yes, it may start with a Naval and air blockade of Taiwan. But the next major war which will be berween CCP China and US plus allies will be asymetrical. China has built up (and continues to build up) a large number of missile launchers along their coast along with a large stock of intermediate range missiles. The Chinese communist military will crater all US Air Force airfields (and continue to attack them even after they are repaired). The US Naval piers and logistics centers will be bombed. And this is without even engaging the now formidable Chinese Navy and Air Force. Any US Naval assets closer than 500 miles will be attacked. Seventh Fleet Vice Admiral will be reluctant to engage his homeported carrier for fear of it's flight deck being cratered. No, Tom Cruise will not save the day on CAP patrol. The JCS will refuse to send east coast Naval assets to the western Pacific. Chinese cyber warfare will attempt to suppress high tech US F-35 fighters and US Aegis radars. The US Hawaii and west coast will be threatened by Chinese ICBMs. Deployed US Naval assets will have at most one month's logistical supply of dwindling fuel, food, and ammunition resupply. They will revert from offensive action to survival mode. Reluctantly, the US will resort to firing off a few nuclear ICBMs against Chinese targets. The Chinese will respond in kind. Russia will stay neutral. The UK an France will refrain from getting their small nuclear forces engaged. Radioactive fall out will degrade US agriculture (as well as western Pacific allies food stocks as well). The Chinese mainland is too large to be destroyed and its population too large to be entirely eliminated. The Chinese communist regime will be severely degraded and China will revert to a Tang Dynasty style government. The internet may collapse. The high and low classifed networks will continue to function independently. No nuclear winter (if the expended nuclear warhead count count remains less than about 15). But a heavily degraded lifestyle for the US population. r/karl
The United States has more arable land than China, consistently ranking first or second globally (often behind India), while China typically falls third or fourth, despite having a similar total land size, because a larger percentage of the US land is naturally suited for farming (prairies/plains) compared to China's mountainous/desert terrain.
I understand the sentiment Ed. My father-in-law was a WWII vet who started his war on 12/7/1941 on Ford Island. Flew in PBYs the whole war, was wounded by an attack on one by a Jap aircraft. He once told me he'd never buy a Japanese car because the same SOBs spent so much effort trying to kill him.
Before he passed he, his wife, and my wife all drove Hondas.
The point is that even though such sentiments are entirely understandable, time passes on and the situation changes. As they say, time heal all wounds. What they don't say is that sometimes it takes a lot longer for some than others.
As a contrast to the above anecdote, here's another family story:
My father, 12 at the end of WWII, asked his uncle, who had been in the Army Air Corps as a mechanic then supply sergeant with a fighter unit, and thus moved from the UK to France and into Germany as the bases moved forward, about the places he'd seen:
Dad, "What was England like?"
Uncle, "They're backwards."
"What about France."
"It was dirty."
"Well, what about Germany?"
"They're the only people that are just like us."
And so far as I can tell, that was somewhat the consensus of very many, like a large majority of those who were there. US and German veterans groups have collegial meetings. There are many documented friendships between them.
If we can now see the Germans and friends and partners, we can see the Japanese the same.
I am AF retired. I spent a fair amount of time in air defenses. Almost no view toward west Pacific other than the news and watching Japan turn down a couple of modern radars 5 or 7 years ago.
Japan should have long range radar coverage rather than tomahawks.
Was an exchange student at the ROKAF Staff College with a Taiwanese AF officer. He had a very favorable view of Japan and said that Japan was looked upon favorably in Taiwan.
I am uncomfortable with our foreign policy so perhaps someone can enlighten me.
We claim that the western hemisphere is our domain and other powers had better stay out. (Monroe Doctrine) We have used force or subterfuge many times to show that we are serious - Chile Cuba Dominican Republic El Salvador Grenada Haiti Honduras Nicaragua Panama and now Venezuela.
At the same time we are essentially setting up a cordon sanitaire around China that runs along the western Pacific and one around Russia that stretches from the Baltic to the Black Sea.
How do we justify our sphere of influence but deny it to other great powers?
Easy because that’s a contested sphere if influence that should belong to Japan, Korea, Australia, Indonesia and even India.
Sorry but North & South America doesn’t have as many successful competing nations like throughout Asia.
We have crippled those first world nation through the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime whereas the CCP has not been. What has the world then gotten. The CCP has been a major proliferation violator handing the bomb to Pakistan, North Korea & to some extent Iran.
Let Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, et al arm themselves with the bomb instead of the US extended security.
North Korea developed bombs by themselves. China was NOT happy with this at all, since its severly undermined North Korea dependence of China for protection.
I think China's CCP still wants revenge for the Opium Wars. The rest of the world has much longer memories than the USA. I was in England from 1996-1999 and WWII was like yesterday for my elderly neighbors. The woman down the street worked in an aircraft factory and still was talking about the experience. My neighbor behind me was a boy in 1944 and had vivid memories. Another lady at church worked in radar with the wrens and still had a grudge against the Germans. The usher at church wore his Burma campaign ribbon to Mass every Sunday. They had not forgotten, and I'm sure the Chinese boomers and later generations were thoroughly indoctrinated against the western powers (especially the UK) and the Japanese.
The CCP has risen to dizzying heights to foster hatred against the Japanese. Hatred is indoctrinated into the young from kindergarten upward. Frankly, they also indoctrinated hatred toward the United States. In fact, it is not unusual to see school-age youth stomping on Japanese and American flags; in some areas, they are painted on the ground.
Considering that the Chinese Communists did not do much to fight the Japanese, they used that period to create an outside enemy, just like other dictatorships have done.
General Secretary Xi also uses the phrase "End of a Century of Shame." This period includes the loss of territory to Russia and the granting of concessions by the emperors and empresses to the Western Powers. An interesting phrase, given that modern Chinese history began in 1949, and anything before that was destroyed by the Communists under Mao.
It's strange that Beijing, in its anti-Japanese and anti-American nationalism education and push, did not count Russia as a historical enemy. Czarist Russia took 1 million square km of land from the Qing Dynasty in the Amur Annexation campaign, under the pretext of trying to protect China from other Western powers, and yet abrogated its promises of protection for the late Qing Dynasty.
Is the Lennist milk flowing in the vein of CCP China, preventing it from staking claims on those lost territories to Russia?.
I don't think Mao even brought it up to Krushchev.
So when it comes to territorial claw back from the Russians, the Chinese are just behaving like a tamed poodle rather than some wolf warriors.
I am sure the Kremlin is happy to keep the feeling that way: "US and Japan bad, Russia good"
It's complicated. The Amur territories weren't exactly Chinese in first place. The were Manchurian, and Qing dynasty was a Manchurian conquerors who established themselves as rulers of China. They were... not exactly well-loved by the majority of Chinese population (whom Qing viewed as second-class citizens, with Manchurians holding all positions of power). So Amur territories aren't what most Chinese peoples view as "their own". While there ARE fringe nationalist movement that clamored for expansion to Siberia, most of Chinese population just didn't view this as any matter of importance.
https://www.newsweek.com/map-russian-territory-china-annex-fsb-2082706
The most recent Chinese map, based on 'historical' territory claims, the 10-dash line, reclaims that territory, including Vladivostok.
The new historical claim is an indicator of the CCP's long-term strategy. The Kremlin did not publicly push back because it is the junior partner in the relationship.
The new Chinese map doesn't claim Vladivostok but portrays Bolshoy Ussuriysky, known in China as Heixiazi (Black Bear) Island, as entirely within Chinese territory. The island, which sits at the confluence of the Ussuri and Amur rivers, has been jointly owned since the two neighbors reached a border agreement in 2008.
Let's just said Japanese reluctance to condemn their World War 2 crimes always helped to streinghten Chinese anti-Japanese stance.
I agree.
True. However, the CCP has gone overboard. In 'summer camp' attendees literally perform bayonet practice (real bayonets) on dummies dressed in WWII uniforms.
From an economic standpoint, it is counterintuitive to foster such hatred toward a country that has made substantial capital investments in it.
However, even before the PM's comment on the strategic threat a cross-strait invasion would have, the threats from the 'Little Pinks' were causing Japanese living in the PRC for business to leave. The increasingly anti-Japan aggression, as official policy, has resulted in Japanese firms exiting, contributing to capital flight and adding thousands to the pool of unemployed.
I feel the same when I hear China supplies Fentanyl to the world.
Cdr-appreciate you sir. Where can a map showing the East China Sea/South China Sea to include the Bashi Channel be obtained with demonstrable ranges of weapons systems such as typhoons etc. Can the Marine littoral regiments get to the fight or is this Plan Orange all over again? I'm beginning to see why Pete Ellis needed a drink. Semper Gumby!
On the Taiwan-Japan connection - I was in Taichung in 2023 for the first round of the World Baseball Classic, and I stayed at the same hotel as the Cuba national team's staff. I had breakfast a few days with one of their Taiwanese interpreters...he told me his father always insisted he is not Chinese - he is Taiwanese and Japanese. Was forever grateful that Japan had given him an education. Another guy I met there from what amounts to the Taiwan chamber of commerce said "I think the Taiwanese people wish they were still part of Japan". Even things like the signs around Sun-Moon Lake, talking about the dams and infrastructure that Japan had built - got 0 sense of any animosity toward Japan
It never really struck me so clearly before, but that first island chain line on the map crystalized something for me as someone a little bit claustrophobic. If I was China and had the capability, I would have to put a significant hole in that line.
Please explain to me how Taiwan has any influence over what China might want to do in a move East? China would easily roll,over any Naval or other military presence that Taiwan might present. It would hardly be a bump for the Chinese Navy.
Slightly o/t.
The hypocrisy of CCP run Bejing is rather blatant.
"1 unit of strength to fight the Japanese, 3 to fight Kuomintang, and 6 to build the party."
In the meantime, given the increasing presence of the Chinese and Russian militaries off the coast of Japan? It's time for Japan to further strengthen the military. Particularly if another weak man occupies the White House and renders the US an undependable treaty ally.
Excellent note of our allies always watching their “back” in these times of unpredictable administrations. One election, all bets are off.
Japan remains totally dependent on maritime (and airborne) trade. As the U.S. Navy moves to second place to the PLAN, at least in terms of hulls, Japan pretty much has only two choices to deal with the sea-control requirements for them to not starve, either industrially or literally: Apply for client state status under the Middle Kingdom (which given Beijing still tightly clutching those grudges for the 1930s and ‘40s, ain’t gonna happen anyway), or make up the difference with the JMSDF. Their choosing the latter, especially as so many of those trade routes run within the first island chain, is pretty solidly reasonable.
The Japanese “don’t do anything to ever upset anyone” overarching political strategy was only sustainably workable under USN naval dominance in the Pacific. The challenge from the PLAN is more than just a direct challenge to the USN. As an unintended consequence of that PLAN expansion, the revitalization of a Japanese naval power projection capability has to rank right up there at the top of any “gee, maybe shoulda thought of that” list by the future historians of the CCP.
Both South Korea and Japan are destined to acquire nuclear weapons and nuclear submarine launch deterrence capability sooner or later.
The Inevitable Logic of a Japanese Nuclear Weapon
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/japan-nuclear-weapons-china-deterrence-us-alliance-north-korea-geopolitics/
There have been rumors for decades that certain trickier components have been pre-built, and the resources needed to to machine and assemble an actual deliverable device have been identified and set aside, purely for research purposes of course, somewhere within the Japanese industrial research complex. Their various completely civilian launch vehicles featuring solid fuel boosters would do nicely as delivery vehicles. Thus, the rumor goes, for the Japanese at least, an intent decision could be very shortly followed by a real world capability.
Yes. The Japanese engineers are very proud of how fast those "civilian" solid fuel rockets can be launched from a cold start.
Across the strait, the South Koreans have SSKs sporting ballistic missile launch tubes. I would not be surprised at all if they are similarly developing the capability to deploy nuclear weapons in short order if necessary.
South Korea already has short-range (500miles) submarine-launched ballistic missiles tested three years ago.
They were caught by the IAEA testing a few grams of HEU a few years ago.
Today, you can use supercomputer simulations and high-power lasers to do some subcritical assembly testing of components.
But that’s more an artifact of the old “stay home and don’t offend anyone” than the recent more expeditionary capabilities for the JMSDF. There are real domestic newkewler-bad barriers to publicly doing anything along those lines, such politics having been reinforced in recent political memory by the Fukushima event, but given the NORKS built them with stone knives and bearskins there can be little argument that the Japanese or South Koreans could if they decided to.
I would not be surprised if RoK and Japan did not already have some built, in components but Not assembled and hidden.
I would have that.
FWIW:
https://thebulletin.org/2014/06/china-worries-about-japanese-plutonium-stocks/#post-heading
https://thebulletin.org/2021/04/plutonium-programs-in-east-asia-and-idaho-will-challenge-the-biden-administration/#post-heading
That is what I expect Japan to do. They do not want China to have a nuclear supremacy over them and don't trust the US fully to protect them.
It is good China worries, it would make them think if they try to go to war.
Now, Would Japan give, loan or sell a nuke to Taiwan covertly?
No. Unlikely. Too late.
Due to geopolitical complexity and a lack of room to maneuver.
Taiwan nearly went nuclear in 1988 but got shut down. The US thought it could still rely on the PRC's help to rein in the Soviet Union, but that ended when the Soviet Union imploded. After that, PRC silently and covertly planned on its militaristic expansion, but it waited for its time to grow its strength by acquiring Western technology and capital. The US and the West foolishly gave it to them.
[1]https://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/TaiwansFormerNuclearWeaponsProgram_POD_color_withCover.pdf
[2] https://globalsecurityreview.com/taiwans-nuclear-what-if-implications-for-u-s-strategy-and-global-security/
Nixon/Kissenger
Prime Minister of Japan Sanae Takaichi
"... also favours revising Japan’s pacifist postwar constitution..."
This would be an immensely positive step for Japan. Most everything to her North, West and South(west) is decidedly dangerous..........and help is far, far away to her East. Time to ditch the "we don't want to rile anyone anymore" routine and re-visit some hard military Truth. Gear up and get ready.
Correct!
Worked with the JSDF as a squadron commander. They have been, and suspect strongly still are well equipped, well trained, and logistically smart. Was not aware of the significantly different "attitudes" of the S.Koreans vs Taiwanese w/regard to Japan, but can understand it. The attitudes of the Chinese towards the Japanese (Nanking just one example), and S. Korea towards Japan (occupation, WWll) and China (Korean conflict) make the alliance discussion complicated to say the least.
Was an exchange student at the ROKAF Staff College with a Japanese ASDF pilot. One day he said he didn't see why the Koreans complained about the Japanese occupation so much because the Japanese built so many roads, factories, mines, etc. in Korea during that time. He hadn't heard about all of the oppression they imposed on the Koreans (nor the Japanese atrocities in China). He also thought we forced them (the Japanese) into WW2 by our actions. He was very pro-American by the way.
Well, to a large extent, we are all the products of what we are taught growing up. Unlike Germany, who apologized many times for their attrocities, it took Japan many decades to express their sorrow...not actually sure they ever did? So, no telling what their "history" looks like. IIRC, there were 100,000 deaths a month in the Far East Greater Prosperity Sphere at it's worst.
Historian Richard Frank calculates 240,000 per month during 1942-1945, mostly Chinese, southeast Asian, Indonesian and Filipino civilians. See his article "Counting All The Dead" in the August 2023 issue of American Heritage. That's an average; the actual time distribution skews towards 1944 and 1945.
https://www.americanheritage.com/counting-all-dead
I read Frank's "Downfall" a decade or more ago, using the information in it as facts to "persuade" one of my daughter's college professors that there was no need for the U.S. to apologize to Japan for bombing Hiroshima and Nagasaki. He never said he was "convinced", but did change the class assignment. IIRC, Frank may have started out as against using the weapons, but rapidly became convinced it was the right call. I may have that wrong.
Aviation Sceptic:
I am on the tail end of a three-book recounting of the War in the Pacific, ("American Ceasar," the bio of MacArthur; "The Rising Sun," about the war from Japan's perpective, and now, "Embracing Defeat," about post-war Japan.) I might need to read "Downfall," also, to round out my perspective on the war's end.
Bombing Hiroshima and Nagasaki was the right call. Truman was prepared to continue with nuclear bombing, even though conventional incendiary bombing had already burned down much of Japan's major cities and industrial centers. Although Russia had declared war on Japan about 6 days prior to Hiroshima, I do not believe that Japan would have surrendered (at least, not as "soon" as it did) without the atomic bombings.
The "peace camp" within the Japanese government and military hierarchy was, indeed, seeking an end to the war, but the entire Japanese populace had been subject to at least 15 years of militaristic "die for the Emperor" indoctrination, and the centuries-old Japanese culture of honor made voluntary surrender extremely unlikely.
Even when Emperor Hirohito recorded his message of surrender to the Japanase people, he did not acknowledge unconditional surrender. Nor was Hirohito removed as a figurehead.
You would definitely want to read "Downfall" for Frank's perspective. He was the first U.S. historian to be given access to the emperor's diaries, and the insights provided by the emperor's own writings were quite conclusive that without the bombs, Japan's plan remained to "bleed" the allies into gaining favorable terms for the war's end. The book is a tome, but surprisingly readable. I credit Frank's writing style.
"at least 15 years of militaristic "die for the Emperor" indoctrination"
Jim Jones says it doesn't take nearly that long. And you don't even need to convince everyone, just the ones with the guns.
I took an automotive class on the GI bill alongside a Red Chinese Immigrant, he and his Cambodian wife had snuck out through Thailand.
He knew nothing of History, but he knew the Japanese war, and his old Militia rifle was an arisaki type 99. In china he was an auto mechanic. Nice fellow always jolly LOL.
"He knew nothing of History, but he knew the Japanese war,"
Much like the US. WWII is alive and well in the minds of most Americans, and certainly in the imaginations of American authors and film makers. You can't go into a bookstore without seeing books, even fiction, that feature Nazis or even an occasional swastika on the cover. And then there is the American Civil War, even more remote in history. Which brings to mind slavery, of course, which according to some is still a major sin/problem in the US.
Slavery is about the worst sin I have ever heard of.
The NAZI party was totally destroyed for that and hounded into oblivion, the North should have done the same with the democrat party of the rebellion to keep men and women slaves.
I am sure many Chinese, etc. think of the Japanese the same way the Jews think of the Nazis/Germans, for pretty much the same reasons. Can't say I blame them.
Oh I am positive of it, I feel the same bout the democrats and the civil war.
But I got over it and vote against them.
Maps are fantastic tools. We are approaching one of the annual weather periods the "experts" posit as favorable to China for an invasion. I can't help but feel uneasy, as the PLA planners look at the curves of their ability to attack and our ability to defend / hinder them. Yes, I'm concerned that "this is the best time" to attack, as we have bounced off the bottom and are beginning to get our act together. Have to note most (if not all) of the islands under discussion are within range of Chinese land based missiles. Given the constant "training exercises" conducted by the PLA, easy to get complacent and miss the signal when the fight actually starts...
Glad they're fighting alongside us, and not against us.
Agree completely. Always thought the Navy we don't want to fight is Japan and the Air Force we don't want to fight is Israel. The latter is backed up by overheard conversations among Navy pilots in my first tour after carrier ops with Israeli air force.
I’ve been inside CCP and to Japan twice!
Understand, CCP remembers what happened in Shanghai and Harbin. CCP will not forget what the Japanese did to their women! Very respectfully, Nurse Jane
For how many years will they “not forget”? Another 50? 209? Or 1000 years?
Hard to say. Somebody above mentioned the Opium wars still linger with them and that’s not the first time I have heard that.
My dad was a shipyard worker during the war, finally retired in the mid-nineties. Dad and Mom both had excellent memories of the war years and it always held a large place in their mind (as well as their similar age relatives). To the point where I pretty much recall most of their views on it even though they both have been gone 20 years plus.
I should add that to them, FDR was the gold standard that nobody has matched since.
Still, the point above about what one is educated on while growing up is key I think to future and different attitudes forming. Time will tell.
Probably at least as long as some Japanese hold a grudge against us for Hiroshima.
Nations could hold grudges for a long, long time, you know.
They could. Whether it makes sense to do so (by repeating this ad nauseam), it’s another question. See Taiwan/Japan and Vietnam/US, for example.
Raises the question, is Taiwan’s best defense Japan or the USA? While US action in the event of a CCP attack on the island is hamstrung by distance and political resolve, Japan definitely doesn’t labor the former, and now appears to be more mindful of the latter.
Taiwan's best defense is...Taiwan. We can and should help, but they've gotta train and arm everybody capable and make the CCP know that they will fight to the last.
Taiwan is incapable to withstanding an attack by mainline China on its own, no matter preparation or resolve (unless they go nuclear which is highly unlikely). Its “best defense” is alignment with a superpower either directly or indirectly. Japan, not the US, is closest to harm and therefore would be would be the most concerned about the independence of the nation.
You may be correct about Taiwan being unable to withstand China. If that is so, I think even going nuclear won't save them, China would respond in kind and has a much bigger arsenal at the ready.
However...
What Taiwan can do is make is so that the cost of taking Taiwan becomes pyrrhic. Wound them so badly that the losses of all their little princes causes such rage in the population that the CCP is in danger. The Chinese don't act like they are casualty averse, but I am very sure that when the butcher's bill has to be paid it won't be pretty for them. Thus I suspect that the CCP is, in fact, casualty averse and if Taiwan shows resolve and probable skill, they will think twice. Especially if other countries come into the war against them.
IMHO, Taiwan should vote itself to be a protectorate or suzerainty state of the US.
That way, it can run its own local government and economy and leave the foreign policy and defense matters to the US.
This protectorate or suzerainty status can last till the geopolitical situation improves to the point that the Taiwanese can vote by referendum to be otherwise.
Forget about taking over Taiwan as the singular goal of the CCP. Yes, it may start with a Naval and air blockade of Taiwan. But the next major war which will be berween CCP China and US plus allies will be asymetrical. China has built up (and continues to build up) a large number of missile launchers along their coast along with a large stock of intermediate range missiles. The Chinese communist military will crater all US Air Force airfields (and continue to attack them even after they are repaired). The US Naval piers and logistics centers will be bombed. And this is without even engaging the now formidable Chinese Navy and Air Force. Any US Naval assets closer than 500 miles will be attacked. Seventh Fleet Vice Admiral will be reluctant to engage his homeported carrier for fear of it's flight deck being cratered. No, Tom Cruise will not save the day on CAP patrol. The JCS will refuse to send east coast Naval assets to the western Pacific. Chinese cyber warfare will attempt to suppress high tech US F-35 fighters and US Aegis radars. The US Hawaii and west coast will be threatened by Chinese ICBMs. Deployed US Naval assets will have at most one month's logistical supply of dwindling fuel, food, and ammunition resupply. They will revert from offensive action to survival mode. Reluctantly, the US will resort to firing off a few nuclear ICBMs against Chinese targets. The Chinese will respond in kind. Russia will stay neutral. The UK an France will refrain from getting their small nuclear forces engaged. Radioactive fall out will degrade US agriculture (as well as western Pacific allies food stocks as well). The Chinese mainland is too large to be destroyed and its population too large to be entirely eliminated. The Chinese communist regime will be severely degraded and China will revert to a Tang Dynasty style government. The internet may collapse. The high and low classifed networks will continue to function independently. No nuclear winter (if the expended nuclear warhead count count remains less than about 15). But a heavily degraded lifestyle for the US population. r/karl
The Inevitable Logic of a Japanese Nuclear Weapon
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/24/japan-nuclear-weapons-china-deterrence-us-alliance-north-korea-geopolitics/
The United States has more arable land than China, consistently ranking first or second globally (often behind India), while China typically falls third or fourth, despite having a similar total land size, because a larger percentage of the US land is naturally suited for farming (prairies/plains) compared to China's mountainous/desert terrain.
Interesting, in a not complimentary way!
Japan wants Tomahawks and land based anti ship weapons, but is dependent on U.S. for and is woefully inadequate in terms of air/missile defenses.
I was raised by WW Ii veterans got chewed out as an adult by an uncle for making the slightest concern for Japanese.
I’ll not cheer the viper growing its fangs
I understand the sentiment Ed. My father-in-law was a WWII vet who started his war on 12/7/1941 on Ford Island. Flew in PBYs the whole war, was wounded by an attack on one by a Jap aircraft. He once told me he'd never buy a Japanese car because the same SOBs spent so much effort trying to kill him.
Before he passed he, his wife, and my wife all drove Hondas.
The point is that even though such sentiments are entirely understandable, time passes on and the situation changes. As they say, time heal all wounds. What they don't say is that sometimes it takes a lot longer for some than others.
As a contrast to the above anecdote, here's another family story:
My father, 12 at the end of WWII, asked his uncle, who had been in the Army Air Corps as a mechanic then supply sergeant with a fighter unit, and thus moved from the UK to France and into Germany as the bases moved forward, about the places he'd seen:
Dad, "What was England like?"
Uncle, "They're backwards."
"What about France."
"It was dirty."
"Well, what about Germany?"
"They're the only people that are just like us."
And so far as I can tell, that was somewhat the consensus of very many, like a large majority of those who were there. US and German veterans groups have collegial meetings. There are many documented friendships between them.
If we can now see the Germans and friends and partners, we can see the Japanese the same.
Its the Ricky iv speech. If I can change, and you can change, anyone can change. Except he was wrong about the damn Ruskies.
Thank you.
I am AF retired. I spent a fair amount of time in air defenses. Almost no view toward west Pacific other than the news and watching Japan turn down a couple of modern radars 5 or 7 years ago.
Japan should have long range radar coverage rather than tomahawks.
How about both?
Was an exchange student at the ROKAF Staff College with a Taiwanese AF officer. He had a very favorable view of Japan and said that Japan was looked upon favorably in Taiwan.
I am uncomfortable with our foreign policy so perhaps someone can enlighten me.
We claim that the western hemisphere is our domain and other powers had better stay out. (Monroe Doctrine) We have used force or subterfuge many times to show that we are serious - Chile Cuba Dominican Republic El Salvador Grenada Haiti Honduras Nicaragua Panama and now Venezuela.
At the same time we are essentially setting up a cordon sanitaire around China that runs along the western Pacific and one around Russia that stretches from the Baltic to the Black Sea.
How do we justify our sphere of influence but deny it to other great powers?
Easy because that’s a contested sphere if influence that should belong to Japan, Korea, Australia, Indonesia and even India.
Sorry but North & South America doesn’t have as many successful competing nations like throughout Asia.
We have crippled those first world nation through the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime whereas the CCP has not been. What has the world then gotten. The CCP has been a major proliferation violator handing the bomb to Pakistan, North Korea & to some extent Iran.
Let Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, et al arm themselves with the bomb instead of the US extended security.
I have long believed that we (AUS) should do exactly that.
North Korea developed bombs by themselves. China was NOT happy with this at all, since its severly undermined North Korea dependence of China for protection.