It appears that some people will never learn that when a President of the United States makes a remark, it is ALWAYS for the record. I will restrict my comments to that.
In a war of maneuver, I am putting my money on the Ukrainians. I don't think Russia can effectively fight with combined arms. UKR will continue to attrit the invaders. Morale and manning are on the side of the defense.
I'd like to aggree and I think they will do well as long as a much larger force doesn't roll them up faster than they can counter. RU forces will soon be able to get off the roads and not be as easy to stop. That is why they need to counter them on the border and need the ability to hit deeper in the Donbas. All these assets we are gathering up need to get there fast, especially acft. This lull in activity is a good time to get A-10s to Poland and get pilots comfortable using them from short term fields set-up on highways. Sell them a couple squadrons for a buck a piece because on future battlefields they'll be very challenged but with a little MIG-29 cover they will exact an incredible toll in this fight alongside drones focused on air defense systems. War crimes have made this a very righteous endeavor.
"Atlanticists" want monopolar uniformity. NATO wants to "protect" the Indo-Pacific. God wants multipolar unity. One is safer granting God His wish than Atlanticists theirs.
If a long war in inevitable given current situation, who benefits the most? I assume those are the ones who are doing their best to ensure this war keeps going :(
Pretty good assessment of where we've come to Sal, but I don't see NATO fracturing other than whatever is going on in Hungary. I think it continues to strengthen and maybe soon we'll see Sweden and Finland commit and be accepted. In the short term (intel weasel word right) NATO may get ahead of us and pull us faster than we want to go. I think you're right in that Putin won't leave or be deposed because too many rice bowls and too much KGB pride is at stake. It is dangerous but I think we keep doing what we are doing but have a plan if they start carpet bombing and bringing much more force to bear in the south. At the very least we need to hold the line there and continue to attrite them. Forces that get destroyed there will not be available for aggression elsewhere. In fact it is my recommendation we try to keep further ground forces from coming in. On the diplomatic side, make moves to not remove but suspend Russia from the permanent select committee due to aggressive (not defensive) military action without UN sanction , initiate war crimes charges, and come up with a logical request for UN support for what we are trying to do, which is stabilize and protect a free country. Watch what China does. If they are smart, they'll cut Russia loose and take a low profile. Yes, the same thing could happen to us, but maybe that will renew our own processes about justifying military actions. We should shore up the UN before it is (more) irrelevant, since international laws and expected nation-state behavior is devolving in the last decade, rapidly.
Thank you for your analysis. There is, unfortunately no off-ramp as this is a zero sum game. No compromise possible, there will be one winner and one loser.
very well stated, sir.
It appears that some people will never learn that when a President of the United States makes a remark, it is ALWAYS for the record. I will restrict my comments to that.
Recall the US did not join WWII for 2 years. That we aren’t involved in conflict now should not give us comfort.
In a war of maneuver, I am putting my money on the Ukrainians. I don't think Russia can effectively fight with combined arms. UKR will continue to attrit the invaders. Morale and manning are on the side of the defense.
I'd like to aggree and I think they will do well as long as a much larger force doesn't roll them up faster than they can counter. RU forces will soon be able to get off the roads and not be as easy to stop. That is why they need to counter them on the border and need the ability to hit deeper in the Donbas. All these assets we are gathering up need to get there fast, especially acft. This lull in activity is a good time to get A-10s to Poland and get pilots comfortable using them from short term fields set-up on highways. Sell them a couple squadrons for a buck a piece because on future battlefields they'll be very challenged but with a little MIG-29 cover they will exact an incredible toll in this fight alongside drones focused on air defense systems. War crimes have made this a very righteous endeavor.
"Atlanticists" want monopolar uniformity. NATO wants to "protect" the Indo-Pacific. God wants multipolar unity. One is safer granting God His wish than Atlanticists theirs.
I don't see a lot of God-fearing restraint in the Russians or Chinese these days. The devil appears to be roaming free there.
If a long war in inevitable given current situation, who benefits the most? I assume those are the ones who are doing their best to ensure this war keeps going :(
Pretty good assessment of where we've come to Sal, but I don't see NATO fracturing other than whatever is going on in Hungary. I think it continues to strengthen and maybe soon we'll see Sweden and Finland commit and be accepted. In the short term (intel weasel word right) NATO may get ahead of us and pull us faster than we want to go. I think you're right in that Putin won't leave or be deposed because too many rice bowls and too much KGB pride is at stake. It is dangerous but I think we keep doing what we are doing but have a plan if they start carpet bombing and bringing much more force to bear in the south. At the very least we need to hold the line there and continue to attrite them. Forces that get destroyed there will not be available for aggression elsewhere. In fact it is my recommendation we try to keep further ground forces from coming in. On the diplomatic side, make moves to not remove but suspend Russia from the permanent select committee due to aggressive (not defensive) military action without UN sanction , initiate war crimes charges, and come up with a logical request for UN support for what we are trying to do, which is stabilize and protect a free country. Watch what China does. If they are smart, they'll cut Russia loose and take a low profile. Yes, the same thing could happen to us, but maybe that will renew our own processes about justifying military actions. We should shore up the UN before it is (more) irrelevant, since international laws and expected nation-state behavior is devolving in the last decade, rapidly.
Thank you for your analysis. There is, unfortunately no off-ramp as this is a zero sum game. No compromise possible, there will be one winner and one loser.