Didn't have to go vulgar, but you are correct. The goals Sal stated twice aren't the same goals. More importantly, does any ledger find the cost worth the benefit being pursued?
Dude, you can say a lot of things about The Donald, but he’s clearly not gay. Not everybody who works in Hollywood is a homosexual, and even if they are, what’s wrong with that?
Hello Neo-Nazi troll. I believe you lost any justification to talk about “history” around the time you began complaining about Churchill and the Jews rather than Hitler and Stalin as the proximate cause for WWII, and insisted it was impossible for the Strait to be opened while Iran existed, ignoring dozen of times in history including most relevantly Operation Praying Mantis.
I am not sure everyone here knows your particular flavor of deluded, vile nonsense or ulterior motives, but I think it is worth noting.
There is a military plan, sure. That’s a straw man. War is politics by other means and Iran is eating Trump’s lunch because there is no political plan other than wishcasting regime change.
Iran can keep the Strait closed as long as they want and just extort tolls to fund their nuke program. Who is the winner in that scenario? What will we have accomplished - politically?
Utterly failed to do that, either last year or last month. Did manage to get them to debate officially withdrawing from the non proliferation treaty though!
So what's your next move, using tactical nuclear weapons as a "preventative strike", which Israel is very much wanting Trump to do for them?
The political goal is clearly signalled by the military goals - remove Iran’s ability (and, one hopes, desire) to make mischief in the broader world.
I find it very encouraging that Trump is saying “We don’t need Hormuz open, so we aren’t going to open it and guarantee passage. If you need it open, open it yourself.” Military/political goals based on American interests are a nice change of pace.
So it's in America's interests to (1) leave the mullahocracy in place, and (2) allow it to enrich itself and harm the global economy by taxing commerce through the straight?
Enrich on what? The oil that can't get out of their ports to the world because (checks notes) they have the strait closed? The mullahocracy will have to find new rubble to hide under if they want to continue their toxic behavior. Other countries have plenty of oil. But this might upset China a bit.
Iran currently controls the Strait of Hormuz and decides who gets through. Currently getting through it: tankers belonging to countries that are not allied with the belligerents in this war (Israel and USA).
Trump's current position is "I don't care; if you care, you should send your own military to do something about it." He is willing to end this war with Iran taxing traffic through the strait, which is not something they had before the war.
So the mullahs are not going to hide under the rubble for much longer. They're going to come out and tax shipping. If you do not like this development, do your part by insisting that Trump not stop the war until the strait is open.
Regime removal would be desirable, a bonus, but the goal of the operation was to destroy -- really set back and delay by many years -- the Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
One of the arguments in favor of the Iran war is that they're a state sponsor of terrorism that has been at war with the United States for 47 years. While degrading Iran's nuclear program is an unqualified good, we're not solving it forever and we're not solving other problems if we leave the mullahs in place while giving them a new revenue source.
9/11 wasn't an expensive operation. We're giving Iran more than enough money to find terrorism for years to come.
To be completely fair to you, there have been a lot of arguments, some of which conflict with each other, that get made depending on what it takes to make it sound like Trump knows that he's doing, and I don't know if you ever made this one.
But really the best comparison here isn't Iraq and Afghanistan in this millennium. It's the off-and-on bombing of Iraq through the 90's, which promised to end their WMD program but never accomplished anything
Unfortunately, the world is more complicated than that. Oil is a fungible commodity, meaning that disruptions and/or local squeezing of the maritime pipeline affect everyone, including industries and consumers in the U.S. See Sal Mercagliano’s “What’s Going on With Shipping?” on YT for details. The global economy has infinitely more moving parts than even the U.S. economy, and we see every day that no one, absolutely no one, in a position of power has a clue about that.
Oil is not a fungible commodity. You need to get that idea out of your noggin.
Refineries are designed and built to process a specific type of crude oil, and cannot have different crude from different locations from the place whose crude it was designed to process. Oil is not soybeans. (And even crops are not totally fungible. )
Refineries are built to prefer a certain thickness and sweetness of crude to produce its target output. raw crude can be blended from various sources to meet that preferred input spec.
If willing to produce a sub-optimal output, a refinery can use a different input set, up to a point, but the result will be more expensive and increase maint costs.
Fair enough. I knew that, but erred in simplifying when commenting. But that fact supports my initial thought that things are far more complicated than most people in power understand.
Oil is a small portion of the US economy. Many more people are going to be feeling pain from higher gas prices than happy because more rigs are running (not that there are, since oil companies have learned to be careful with capex)
But then why telegraph moving Airborne and Marines into theater? I would tend to discount whatever Trump says, and focus on what is being done. When I reason that way, I’m not getting a warm, fuzzy feeling.
The political plan could well be that Iran, China, and Russia are funding the Democrats, so taking Persian Gulf oil shipments out could drain the Democrat coffers for buying fraud with.
The Democrats are an adversary to the American people, and the rest of the world are also adversaries.
We aren't convicting the Democrats yet, that is premature, in advance of having any really persuasive evidence prepared for court.
The Democrats maybe have purely domestic funding, and purely domestic motivations. In which case, interdicting the rest of the world would not hamper Democrat operations.
The Democrat operation, judging by the last two decades, seems to be (checks notes) fundamentally changing the country. Not in a good way. They hate us and so their domestic motivations are not in our interest either. I think of Greek admiral, one Laskarina Bouboulina and her words "Are you women then and not men?" as she led the sailors in a sea battle. Yes, I could ask the same question of some of these posters here. Let go of those pearls, ladies, and get a grip! A reminder the Great Game has been going on longer than 47 years, the players just change. But sea lanes remain vital and we need to plan our own Navy better to account for that.
Correct...no one likes to hear the realities but there it is. Israel wanted this war, thats just a fact, and now we pay the price. NONE of the objectives posted above are reachable or have strategic effect. Iran has NO navy or airforce and the planes and old boats we sink mean nothing. Our bombs have no effect on their missile forces either. Their factories are buried under mountains...BIG mountains. Inflateable decoys are everywhere and the lauchers are mobile anyway. Iranian leadership is resilient and they know how to PLAN unlike our leadership.... This conflict is not sustainable for the United States at this point.
Israel did want the war, but it is also in the US interest. That is some reality for you.
You have a positively delusional view of the effect of the campaign on Iran. Iran's leaders are so wise and resilient that their pre-war leaders are now dead and buried inside their bunkers.
Those leaders PLANNED for their possible assassinations and made sure their deaths were an EXAMPLE. Our targeted assasinations have now solidified support behind the Mullahs. Their replacements are making sure it stays that way, no regime change is possible now.
This war might please some neocon fools in washington but the fallout for the rest of us peons and working stiffs is disasterous. Diesel fuel powers most everything here at some point for instance. Your groceries, Amazon and Walmart junk come on semi's powered by it. Priced a gallon of diesel lately? The loss of soft power and the petro dollar are just icing on the cake for Iran at this point.
This is the crux of it. Of course the military has plans. I have huge confidence in our military to achieve whatever goal is set forth for it. But what is the goal? Contra the essay it has shifted around with every Trump tweet (Rubio has tried to stay consistent but he can only diverge from his boss's line so much). Did we get into the war because Israel was going to take action and we had to get on board? Rubio said that early on. Are we not going to leave until we get the HEU? Trump has said that at times but now seems to be backing away from it. Is regime change a component? Trump changes his mind on that day to day. Are we going to commit war crimes (deliberately attacking civilian infrastructure) to get the Straights open, or are we actually okay with them staying closed? Depends on what time of day you ask the president. This all comes against the backdrop of what many suspected were lies even at the time, now confirmed to be untrue, that our earlier bunker strikes had destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities. The question isn't if the US military can defeat Iran. Of course it can. The question is what political goals, if any, are we actually trying to achieve and what are we willing to do to achieve them? Trump is just making it up as he goes along and he's already looking for an off ramp because he's lost interest, it's not fun anymore.
More than one thing can be true, and when you are negotiating it is a good idea to remain unpredictable and keep the opposition guessing. So, he isn't telling everyone everything and what he is, is obscured by a variety of messages. Just because YOU aren't informed doesn't mean they don't know what they're doing. It just means YOU don't know.
Looking back at Trump’s track record as president it seems much, much more likely that he’s being as random and impulsive as ever rather than this being the one time he’s actually executing some deep strategic concept (which he’s never shown himself capable of doing before). Other than wishful thinking why would anyone believe he’s being anything over than his random and inconsistent self?
Yeah, you know, it isn't like he has outsmarted the Washington Establishment and Dem party to get elected or anything. Or gotten most of the ME to sign onto the Abraham Accords. Or gotten NATO countries to show their cards and expose their duplicity. Or snatched Maduro from a heavily fortified military base. Or decapitated the Iranian leadership already and decimated their military and weapons programs.
No, the man never has a plan and just never wins at anything he sets his hand to. You nailed it, didn't you? He didn't even consult the military on any of this - just surprised them one day. You're sooooo intelligent, aren't ya?
You are assigning your own outcome beliefs to a multi-variate calculus viewed as a static formulation.
Do this in 1940 Europe with the demostrable indices at that time and you'd look obvious. Predict a complete and utter collapse of the world's most progressive and fanatic war machine in the final week of April 1945, and you'd look like a savant.
I think you are missing the fact the U.S. and Israel have the lever of escalation still in hand. One expects negotiations are going on to amongst the stated objectives to also open the straight. Sticks such as we will take out your refining capacity, we will destroy your export infrastructure on Kharg and elsewhere, we will destroy your electric generation capacity, and others, remain. Carrots, such as we won’t do those things, you can stay in power, cooperate and set up a regional management of the Strait, with you involved, you can continue to bleed the nation of treasure into your personal accounts, we willl destroy help you upgrade your oil infrastructure( for a price), etc. Your choice.
Goddamn it, this needs to be plastered on every news site. I can’t even comprehend what part of OPLAN these idiots don’t understand. The J3/5/7 shops work non f-n stop on this. Every major exercise is built of these elements.
This is not a pick up game. What’s always unknown is what our adversaries (and allies) will do.
Naturally the J2 guys routinely do their own thing and revise their OPSINTEL briefs while the J4 crew is almost always asked as an afterthought when we realize we need to do R5.
Coal-to-liquid plants would represent a significant financial commitment; one that would be subject to the whims of Congress, and therefore demand a great deal of faith on the part of private money. Another way of relieving demand on petro fuels would be to build a boatload of small nuclear plants.
Atomic Blender YouTube channel makes a pretty good argument for large reactors; the higher enrichment necessary for smaller reactors makes the electricity too expensive.
Agree there's a war plan. But was it tossed to the side for the sake of expediency? Now you don't have much of a plan. I really only wanted ONE THING out of the plan made public and we worked hard to make that unclas and that was Commander's Intent. What is it? Update us on the progress of it. I think ADM Cooper's updates are good. I think we're seeing a different public affairs approach (no embedded media; no real briefings) and I understand that. I also think you create an information vacuum that will be filled. BTW...if we're looking for an off-ramp, then the plan didn't match the strategy. We should know when we're at the destination and call it a day.
Any "plan" that did not state in the first bullet point something like, while protecting shipping and maintaining oil sea lanes open, we are going to .... was no plan.
Because the market gets the yips without Hormuz open, and Trump is on records as saying that he's very concerned about yippy markets. Just ask him about tariffs.
So Hormuz is an important goal. Number one, per Trump, is "approved" regime change, which instantly de-legitimized any approved regime.
Because the United States participates in a global economy where the purchasing power of the nations that depend on Mideast oil is tied to America's economic well-being.
That strikes me as the kind of second-order effect that (a) should be those country’s primary concern and (b) once the US decides that the health of other countries’ economies is its primary concern, where does that end?
We didn't give them a chance to make it their primary concern. Other countries didn't have a say in this matter. We didn't ask them to prepare for this war. We didn't tell them it was happening. They woke up one morning to oil price shocks.
And perhaps I didn't make myself clear: it's not the health of Europe's economy for its own sake that concerns us. It's that Europe is a market for $1 trillion of US exports, and if Europe is poorer, that directly hurts Americans.
It’s also a tacit acceptance of the uptilnow shaking down of the US whilst whinging about how mean the US is. Is now time for another reminder that appeasement never works?
So, since I am *not* a naval architect like my father (Hi, dad!) I have no idea how practical or difficult it would be to build up a "Q-Tanker" that had adequate antimissile and anti-fastboat capabilities (mostly thinking in terms of structural supports and rigidity requirements) to make the push; Running a couple of those through the Strait when appropriately tasked Keyholes are overhead to see where the openings to the bunkers are located seems like a decent means of surviveably luring those assets out, in order to locate that targeting data. Which would allow us to then drop ... "appropriate" ordnance on them to entomb them forever.
Or perhaps just slapping a number of R2D2s and 5 inchers on every American flagged tanker (and every tanker that suddenly *wants* to be American flagged) along with a detachment of Marines to run them -- along with some legal tomfoolery to make them part of the US Navy, if that's required to get ports to let them dock -- becomes the new standard when dealing with Strait of Hormuz runs.
Or maybe I'm an ignorant fool making suggestions that sound kinda bad-ass and are actually completely retarded. That does happen, on occasion. ;)
Well, if reports are to be believed, the Iranian Air Force other than the drone armada are a complete non-entity. So that would seem to be a non-factor, so long as whatever we might theoretically bolt to these ships can handle drones as well as fastboats and incoming antiship missiles.
I suppose I haven't proposed any sort of solution to the "mine" problem, which is certainly a problem.
I dunno. As I say, maybe it's a *really* stupid idea. I am definitely *way* out of my lane here. I write code, babysit very large computers, and build cars. You will note that "Naval Armament and Tactics" is not on that list. 🤣
Your faith is touching, but when has Trump *ever* had a comprehensive plan for anything? His talents are visceral and impulsive, not thoughtful and deliberate. That makes him a great politician, but a lousy wartime president.
An intact, radicalized Iranian regime hell-bent on avenging the ayatollah remains in power. Their nuclear program is also intact. Tehran now controls the Straits of Hormuz, to boot, as American military power proved inadequate (in the eyes of the world) to the task. NATO is in total disarray. The Gulf States feel deeply betrayed. American and Israeli missile stocks are depleted. Iranian missile attacks are *increasing* in frequency, and are still doing serious damage. Inflation is on the rise. And, the petrodollar now faces the very real prospect of being unseated by the yuan.
This is shaping up to be the most comprehensive American strategic defeat in our history. The game isn't up quite yet, but we need some serious miracles.
You think General Caine and the entire military head shop had nothing to do with any of this? Your cynical pessimism is both annoying and misinformed and born more of your antipathy for Trump than any realistic analysis of the situation.
In your mind Iran is winning even given all of their military infrastructure being destroyed, their civilian and top military leadership eliminated, and their nuclear program destroyed - all the centrifuges and heavy water infrastructure are gone and we won't allow them to rebuild it. But, sure, their "nuclear program is intact" according to you. I also doubt that anybody in the world is questioning US military power or capabilities - most importantly the Chinese whose wonder radars and air defenses came up with a big zero in Venezuela and Iran. If anybody's military tech and capabilities are being questioned, it is China's.
The Gulf states are pretty united...and will be when this is over.
You have no idea about what the "missile stocks" are except the hysterical bleating in the media, which also has no idea. Yes, we used missiles so "reduced"? Yeah, we used missiles. "Depleted" means not having the substantial numbers needed to meet our military commitments...and that is BS. It is also BS that Iranian "missile attacks are increasing"...stop listening to Iranian propaganda. They fired a lot of missiles, we destroyed most of their missile stock, we destroyed 95% of their fixed missile sites and are bombing the rest, and they're down to a small number of mobile launchers that we are also hunting and destroying.
But do keep posting. When this all ends up, we'll go back and review your opinions. It is shaping up to be the most embarrassing load of horse puckey every posted. You're deluding yourself with a bunch of wish casting to support our enemy because of your inability to deal with Trump winning the Presidency. Get over it and get your mind right.
This is TDR in action. There are things about Trump that everyone has to acknowledge. For example, he is tremendously charismatic; the man clearly has ability to inspire or influence others. But, a careful, cautious, methodical planner. Dude!?
Once you started down the "Trump has a plan," you lost all credibility. If you can't acknowledge the man's flaws, your touting of his virtues is just fanboy nonsense.
Trump has a military and a lot of Generals...they've had plans, they have plans, if nothing else...there are plans. Endlessly war gamed and played out in many different contingencies. The moment you think "Trump came up with the plan" beyond outlining the strategy of destroying all of their capacity to build nuclear weapons and missiles, wellllll, you just wandered off the range didn't you?
Builders are known for being extremely careful planners with attention to all sorts of details the people who know nothing about buildings seem to miss. It's a transferable skill. Stop your yip yapping, it makes you sound deranged.
Yeah, the guy's planning and executing everything on his lonesome.
Ah, but what's this! Like "Leif" above, "Tom Yardley" is another SS account set up in 2023...very few subscribers...no posts...no activity...suddenly delivering carefully honed anti-Trump messages.
I voted for Trump, but I'm not blinded by ideology. Our missile stocks are depleted (no shortage of coverage of this in the defense industry press, not MSM), as is our industrial base. On the rate of Iranian missile attacks, I should've been more specific. The three-day average of strikes is increasing. Obviously, it's still *way* down from the beginning of the war.
I have no doubt that the US military planning has been excellent. Unfortunately, the problem is one of strategy. The operational performance of the US and Israeli militaries has been superb, but that shouldn't blind us to the unhappy strategic reality. We haven't accomplished regime change. We haven't destroyed the Iranian nuclear program. We can't safely transit the Straits. NATO countries are actively defying us. Even Poland, our most reliable NATO ally, just refused our request to transfer their Patriot missiles to us.
China is in a strong position. Their equipment has not done particularly well, as you correctly note. But, everyone knows that China sells inferior versions of its gear ("monkey models" in Russian parlance), as do we. Nor should one assume that the Iranians have the same standard of training as the PLA. Meanwhile, the US has been withdrawing military assets from East Asia to frantically reinforce the Iran operation. People there notice. Indeed, the Philippines just started negotiations with China on oil & gas reserves. Best of all, Iran is insisting that oil passing through the Straits must be paid for in yuan. That's a major challenge to the dollar. Given the drones and missiles raining down on their kingdoms, I'm sure that the Gulf States will hedge their future military and diplomatic bets with closer ties to China, as well. They're also outraged by the Israeli incursion into Lebanon.
Power is about perception, and the perception of American power is now greatly diminished. The president told the world that he would pick the next Iranian leader and control their oil. That ain't happening. Food (the Gulf provides much of the world's fertilizer feedstock) and fuel prices are soaring around the world. Most of the world won't blame Iran for the hardships imposed on them. They will blame American hubris.
Oh, here we go...the whole "Monkey Models" thing again. Monkey Tanks, monkey missiles, monkey radars...it is always the excuse for why they fail. Except they never said that when they went to sell those on the market and nobody will be buying them in the future based on this performance - trust and all of that. So they won't be able to curry favor with governments by saying "we'll supply military equipment to protect you" - nobody is buying that. When we send M-1s to Ukraine, we told them they had the special armor stripped along with some of the systems...up front, no hiding. China is in a MUCH weaker position.
As to Poland "giving up" THEIR Patriot batteries, yeah we felt out Poland...they didn't want to send them given their (rightful but paranoid) concern about the Russians. Of course, the other side of refusing such requests is getting future arms purchases and agreements fulfilled or authorized. It can go both ways and governments have to consider that.
"Defense Industry Press"...really? Come on. Been reading reports from anonymous industry sources in The War Zone propaganda? Regular contributions from McGregor and Ritter? We've all been saying for a long time "make more missiles" as we always want more because we will shoot more than we think in a war. They've ramped up production - but if you think any of them have any idea what the inventories are besides "we've used 850 Tomahawks" talking points, you're believing it because you want to believe it.
NATO countries have not been our true allies since the fall of the Soviet Union - and maybe a little bit before that. They haven't pulled their weight for decades and, while their military guys are good people, their governments haven't given the funding or resources necessary to BE allies. They are philosophically and ideologically bereft of passion and direction for their civilizations and are on the precipice of a civilizational decline based on a demographic collapse and conquest by migrants. They are not reliable nor even capable of recognizing their own peril - because they would have to admit their ideological preconceptions were incorrect, not just wrong but wrong-headed. NATO has no teeth, the EU has no teeth, and they have no capabilities beyond cheerleading and providing a pastiche of "multi-lateral" action to what we do.
Yeah, I doubt anyone is doubting American power - and the willingness to deploy it when necessary to ruin your day, your week, your month, or even your year. The last act isn't written, except in your pessimistic, cynical mind. You're going to be surprised how it all turns out in the end. I doubt you'll appreciate it, though, as you'll be off trying to find the next thing to be incorrect about.
Alternate facts: Yanbu is pumping out 7 million bpd to Red Sea ports, Iran's neighbors are grateful to us in ways you cannot imagine for stepping on their regional troublemaker and our status in the region is strong, and we are regarded with much more respect than the last doofus in office, whom I take it you voted for.
This Leif character sure seems confident in his opinions. I'm no military planner, just a son of many soldiers, but good golly Miss Molly, I can plainly see he has no idea as to what he's talking about. This is unfortunate and distracting, and is devouring an awful lot of words that could be more profitably used by starving children in Africa.
> I voted for Trump, but I'm not blinded by ideology.
Ah now I'm SURE you're a DNC bot/pest account. This is the word-for-word exact Hello Fellow Trump Voters opening tactic that was formerly used on /pol/
Look, just sod tf off. And grow a clue: it's somebody else's turn at the helm now.
You lot go back to your DEI and Fiery But Peaceful Riots messaging, and inventing new "derivatives" to play casino with, and serving as a money laundry haven and fraud planet...and let the grownups work.
And the rest of you swabs, would you stop engaging this pest? Your enthusiastic armchair opining is being elicited here as free focus grouping for the wankers whose idea of leadership has been a bunch of London School of Economics types playing games for the past 80 years.
They had a great military plan- Iran’s leadership dead, air forces destroyed and long range strike capabilities greatly hampered.
That doesn’t mean jack and shit if there isn’t a political plan.
Like we learned in Vietnam, you can kill way more of them than they kill you, but if they care more than you do and can wait things out better, then you still lose the war.
Well, our concern is keeping them from getting nuclear weapons and having missiles to hid behind while they do it. Done and doing. The political solution is up to the Persian people who want freedom and regime change. It is up to the Arab states to help them do that, with our support. If EU wants oil, it is up them to support ALL of that and to assist in the security environment.
It isn't all the on the US to make all of that happen, but we've created conditions where it can.
Higher oil prices affect us too. Higher fertilizer prices affect us too.
As for keeping them from getting nuclear weapons, I’m gonna press doubt on that when the presiden’s floating a pla to send operators in to physical take the HEU.
Iranian leaders have been ordering the murder of US citizens for almost 50 years. They sponsor terrorism abroad and murder their own citizens for trivial offenses with impunity.
It is perfectly moral to kill people who are trying to kill you.
Not sure how really intact that regime is. Unless someone is stitching the body parts together as we speak. They have been shown that we can play whackamole if they don't cooperate. They have destroyed their relationship with their neighbors. Not sure who wants a career with the mullahocracy with a 2-day career trajectory at this point.
For the record I only got on Substack recently, have no subscribers, and mostly have posted on a few things, mostly on Sal’s substack. And while I think I have acquitted myself well judging by comments and likes (such as dumpstering Yardley the intellectual pedophile who got caught lying about Trump) my footprint is minimal here, and would fit the profile of what you describe were it not for how I am generally pro-Trump and pro-Israel (if a Neocon). So I would be careful how much weight you put on account activity or history.
More relevantly, the merits of an argument aren’t affected by whether it was spammed out by some sweatshop pay per post nonsense from the depths of St. Petersburg or Tehran or Dhaka. So I generally focus less on obsessing over whether or not someone is a bot or a troll or astroturf so much as whether or not their claims or arguments add up. And given the caliber of lots of this clown show I don’t need to worry about being bested much on this score by people who have never counted casualties or ship damage from the 1980s tanker war, and in Yardley’s case apparently never studied how Keynes himself began withdrawing from his analysis of Versailles (which made him famous) later in life, even if he never went anything like far enough.
I see this a lot. Which makes me question the person stalking other people’s account. Pointing fingers instead of considering the posters opinion.
I voted for Trump three times, yet now I have TDS because I started disagreeing with Trump on day two when he trotted Larry Ellison to announce AI data center public private partnerships and personalized mRNA clot shot to cure cancer.
Love ya Sal, but you're whistling past the graveyard.
When Trump says that "nobody knew" that Iran would attack neighboring countries to turn things into a regional war -- when EVERY game plan from Reagan on stated that Iran would do exactly that -- then "Trump has a plan" rings very, very, hollow.
Trump went in to bring about regime change. Didn't happen, won't happen, and Trump saying he has to "approve" Iran's successor leadership just instantly de-legitimized any successor that Trump "approves" of. So guess what? No regime change.
Then there's the small matter of how well we really degrade Iran's capacities when -- per Trump -- it was "two weeks" away from having a nuke only nine months after its nuclear program was -- again, per Trump -- "obliterated."
Finally, there the small matter of Trump not going to Congress for a declaration of war or an authorization to use force, making his little escapade un-Constitutional. Sing and dance all you (and Trump's Congressional lackeys) want, but this is a war, and we are at it.
Trump went in due to to political considerations. Trump went in because he wanted to stroke his own ego and "solve" Iran once and for all. He did not, however, go in with a plan.
And don't start with "measurable metrics." First, as noted above, Trump supposedly obliterated Iran's nuclear program. Right. Second, by any measurable metric, the US won our little doodle in Viet Nam ten times over, but who won the war? Hint -- it wasn't the US. Yet you post here about measurable metrics.
You approach it in a very different manner than what we are doing now, including the fact that you don't hand Iran $14 BILLION in fresh money by letting it get paid for oil in transit because the markets are getting -- as Trump said about tariffs a year ago -- "the yips."
Besides, Iran's nuke program was obliterated nine months ago, remember?
The ability to process more uranium? Yep, that was destroyed. Now we've destroyed the rest of their program along with their ability to produce, deploy, and (soon) launch missiles.
Probably what you don't do, which precipitated ALL of this, is send the Iranians billions in frozen funds in cash and then give them an unverifiable "treaty" that creates a path for them to develop their nuclear program to the verge of having nuclear weapons (at best), with no verification measures, and would allow them to finalize a nuclear weapon in weeks (a break out). That is ALL what Obama did and that Biden and the Dems wanted to revive.
Actually, Obama's transfer was less than $1 billion, was money Iran already earned, and by all accounts Iran was observing the agreement with Obama (which many in Israel's military and intelligence services supported, BTW -- Bibi was against it, I grant you). Trump (carrying out your orders, Sal) gave Iran $14 billion in fresh funds with his oil-in-transit-okay decision.
The only way you stop Iran's nuclear program is with regime change, and you do that very differently from what Trump (Still on goal, Sal!) has done and the way he's doing it.
$14 billion buys a lot of nukes and program material.
There isn’t an objective measurable metric for tenacity in the case of the Ukrainians, or the regime-supporting Iranians. Both of which have been underestimated in both conflicts.
Are you for real? If Trump were to say we knew Iran would attack neighbors, that would be giving away our planning models. He knows everyone, including you, is reading his tweets and he says what he intends to say for an audience that may not be you. Yes, he will probably have to approve of the leadership change so they don't replace one set of mullahs with another. THINK! Or we'd have to go back and get rid of the new ones. De-legitimize in whose eyes? We can't do the heavy lifting for the Persian people. It wasn't our goal going in. Those ICBMs at Diego Garcia should have been your wakeup call, but nope. I'm done reading nonsense from people who obviously aren't in the room where real plans are discussed ranting against Orange Man from their snippets of MSM propaganda. Have a great day. The reason we didn't win in Viet Nam was idiots in the press and politicians who framed the debate and conduct of the war in ways to guarantee it was a waste of time, money and precious blood. Plus ca change, meme ca chose.
"The reason we didn't win in Viet Nam was idiots in the press and politicians who framed the debate and conduct of the war in ways to guarantee it was a waste of time, money and precious blood. "
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Take it from someone who is old enough to have listened to the news during the Viet Nam war, and who had relatives serving in it -- the press and politicians did not frame the debate. You're simply being delusional.
You want to know what did frame the Viet Nam debate? 55,000 US war dead and General Westmoreland telling Johnson that he needed 500,000 MORE troops. THAT framed the debate.
Let's put that 500,000 more troops request into context, shall we? Remember when the Shrub got the vapors because General Shineski told Congress that we'd need 500,000 troops to do the job properly in Iraq? The Shrub fired him. Westmoreland wanted 500k more than he already had.
So what framed the Iraq War debate? It wasn't press and politicians. It was a 20 year war and $2 TRILLION flushed down the drain by the time Trump negotiated his surrender treaty with the Taliban that Biden had no choice but to carry out.
What will frame the Iran War debate? Trump's (goal almost there, Sal!) complete and utter lack of a coherent plan.
John, your problem- many others have it as well- is you take everything said literally.
War is as much deception, feints and misdirection as it is raw power. Also, not all the results of war are understood right away. Sometimes they take years to be recognized.
So don't obsess any longer about Trump. It isn't his plan, it pre-dated him by decades. Trump is playing his part, his role(s) one of which is to get firmly entrenched in the minds of shallow thinkers such as yourself.
Lastly, the world is being reorganized. Pissing off NATO is intentional as we will leave Europe. New LNG terminals are coming online on the gulf coast just as the Persian Gulf is wrecked- happy coincidence, right? No, planned.
The old world is ending right before your eyes yet you want to continue it and are willing to berate those who are doing the hard work of preparing the nation for that new world. You'll never be able to see that big picture unless you drop the biases and open your mind.
Thank you, sir!! I occupied a trailer, in a lot that is now covered by a building, doing a job similar to yours, albeit a few years earlier. As the Interagency planner in the Joint Plans Group, I got a front row seat in the OEF and OIF planning efforts (and execution, until 2006). I never got read in to the Iran OPLANs, but I worked a few of the concepts in my military education program over the years. I have been a dissenter on the Kharg Island speculation, as I believe we control it already. My thoughts for the MEU (s) is the establishment of an Amphibious Operations Area, vicinity JASK and/or the islands in the straits. Curious as to the thoughts of others in this forum, as my experience in this theater has become stale.
If one grabs Professor Peabody and Sherman and we head to the “way back machine” we arrive at Camp LeJeune on 19/20 February 1979. 2nd Battalion, 2nd Marines were the air contingency force. Marine rifle platoon commanders from 3/2 were assigned the additional duty of augmenting 2/2’s rifle platoons in the event they were called out. Indeed they were. The “Alpha” increment headed to Cherry Point MCAS, and 60 Marines headed for Cyprus, the rest of the battalion to follow. This writer, as a rifle platoon commander with Mike 3/2 (yes there 4 rifle companies back in the day…) and one of the officers who was filling the gap, were told to stand by, so…we stood by, and stood by, and…stood by. Jimmy Carter and the remnants of the JFK, State Dept. aka the C team of Vance and Christopher, cautioned the WH tennis court planner against doing anything rash. So, America took a momentary pause. The Marines of 2/2 that deployed, never got further than Cyprus. In November of 1979, Carter would learn a painful lesson, (about the time that the coalition of the damned joined at the hip to the first grand Ayatollah were learning a lesson in the dialectic of revolutions) which is you can’t trust these guys and when will the lesson be learned you can’t negotiate with a tiger, when your head is in his mouth. Sadly 52 Americans that by “international rules of diplomacy” were denied their rights and freedom for 444 days. Where do they go and whom do they see to get their 444 days back…
So here we are, 47 years hence. It seems to be dawning on the region, that paying tribute to have “free” trade, which was expensive to start, didn’t earn you the protection that the Mafia bosses in Teheran had been extracting for that very issue of “free” trade, and the protection Vig wasn’t worth the time or money that had been spent. Whoops, you mean the bastards lied to us? Say it ain’t so, Joe. Now, all the world sees it. Does any right minded soul think the US Navy, as challenged as it is, (building ships seems to be a problem as example) didn’t and or doesn’t know where most if not all the mines are in the seabed of a 21 mile wide body of water that someone has been watching for 47 years? We do have submersibles don’t we…??? Seymour Hersh says our US Navy divers blew up the Nordstream 2 pipeline. No doubt the same Lance Corporal in the shitter two holes down from Seymour, who told him about Nordstream, said we don’t have a plan, and the mines are set to blow up the Straits of Hormuz forever. Guess the Gulf States should start building a pipeline, that is headed directionally across land to the west or north. (Hello Bechtel? Yes, we need a pipeline built ASAP)
As for the speculation about the 11th and 31st MEU’s now in the TOAR of the Persian Gulf, they don’t need to land anywhere or do anything, because they are doing plenty by making the IRGC have to think about what they might do. Planning and resources however limited have to now be spent trying to figure what the MEU’s might do. They can feint left and go right, feint right and go left. They can raid something, somewhere kill everyone and blow up everything and be gone in hours, at a place and time of their choosing or in this case the CENTCOM combatant commander. They don’t need to “hold” anything.
This writer is tired of Douglas MacGregor saying there is no plan. Tired of Scott Ritter saying he could negotiate his way out of the mess. For all their genius they didn’t know that the IRI had a ballistic missile with a range of 4,000 Kilometers, they didn’t know that IRO had squirreled away “some enriched uranium”. The time for talking has ended and we are in the shit now, so everyone ought to start pulling on the same rope. As Ben Franklin opined at one perilous moment we better stick together and hang together for surely if we do not, we shall hang separately. We are finding out just how bad the world is, it took the Orangeman Bad to pull the curtain back. Love or hate him, he pulled back the curtain, and the many global oldsters, are now observed naked and cold and are at best unattractive. Next nation up! Oh wait…no one waits a trick in the barrel. We are seeing the complete realignment of the world, and it ain’t a “rules based new world order” rather a messy world with 3 maybe 4 major spheres of national interest and wills being played out. If everyone thought the last several months have been interesting hang on to your hats and check your cracker jacks decoder rings for further instructions.
Interesting, I was at what was then The Infantry Training School, in spring of 1980, so we were out at Geiger at the same time. Small world! While it is still hazy, I believe 2/2 was meant to get to the Embassy and reinforce it in February of 1979. Send a signal, if the Mullahs and revolutionaries were not going to live up to international law (loosely said) then we would handle our own security on a broad level. If we had any leadership with brains we would have conducted a NEO, shredded and burned the shredded material, taken everything but the wall sockets and told the Ayatollah to forward our mail to the Swiss Embassy. For sure the IRI, was still a weak post embryonic regime in April of 1980. But, it would have been a major undertaking and no way Carter who narcissistically thought he would be re-elected was taking the chance of more KIA and WIA in an effort to clean up that bunch in Teheran. Fair to say, many of us felt betrayed.
CDR SALAMANDER thank you for the great post. Boy, as a military professional and military historian, I am absolutely seething with rage at these clueless keyboard warriors and armchair generals who have the gall to smugly declare “there is no plan!”
From Day 1, Pete Hegseth and General Dan Caine have laid out the mission objectives with crystal-clear precision: destroy Iran’s missile and drone arsenal, crush their navy and air force, and dismantle their military-industrial base so they can never threaten us again. They have been brutally honest that this is a focused punitive expedition that will take 4-6 weeks if the outcomes are met—and they have been unequivocal from the start: no boots on the ground, no nation-building, no endless occupation. Period.
Yet these defeatist critics deliberately ignore every single word that has been said, twisting the facts and spreading their pathetic loser agenda of political sabotage and national self-doubt. It’s not ignorance—it’s willful dishonor, a direct slap in the face to every warfighter executing the mission and to the generations of professionals who built and refined these OPLANs across multiple administrations.
You nailed it, CDR SALAMANDER: the plan exists, it is sound, it is being executed on schedule, and it is delivering results. Enough with the noise from the peanut gallery. Support the mission, back our warriors, and let the professionals finish the job. We’ve made our point—now let’s drive it home and come home.
" They have been brutally honest that this is a focused punitive expedition that will take 4-6 weeks if the outcomes are met—and they have been unequivocal from the start: no boots on the ground, no nation-building, no endless occupation. Period."
Trump wants regime change. That's not blowing stuff up. Talking about how much stuff got blown up today reminds me of the news from Viet Nam about how that war was going. I heard that insanity daily, live. We still lost.
AND we just gave Iran $14 BILLION in fresh money. That'll fund a lot of nukes.
If I told you two months ago that Trump had a plan to leave the Islamic theocracy in place and give it tighter control of the Strait of Hormuz, you'd accuse me of Trump Derangement Syndrome.
You’ll recall of course that the Straits were open before the attack. So there’s that.
And one of the other stated reasons was to stop Iran’s (phantom) “imminent attack” on the region, along with its (largely non-existent or buried under rubble) nuclear weapons program. Neither of which were true, but both were floated as both reasons and goals by the president.
I absolutely agree with you that there is plan after plan — I know plenty of military folks; if there’s one thing they do better than anyone else I know, it’s plan.
But to suggest that it’s just a matter of a quick “mission accomplished” and “buh-bye”, like that’ll end or solve things is some crack-ass shit.
Well, Japan too had a plan in 1940. So I guess this post is certainly correct, since both stupid and smart plans are plans. We will soon learn which the US has.
As it stands today, Iran is on the verge of dominating the Middle East through control of Hormuz. They can export oil and also charge tolls on ~20% of the world’s oil production.
Three additional factors:
* Doubly a win for Iran if Houthis threaten to join in and close the Red Sea (ie, attack Yanbu). See RANE’s new report on the possibility of Houthi involvement:
* General Caine announced today that Iran’s air defenses have been sufficiently degraded to allow overflights of Iran’s interior by B-52s (ie, their previous claims of air superiority were lies).
* Much depends on the relative inventories of US-Israel interceptors and munitions vs. Iran’s missiles.
Soon we will see if the US military’s plans adequately provide for the current situation. Our experiences in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan provide grounds for concern.
An ally that actually can do stuff. Unlike NATO. Did anybody see the interview with the UK Minister of Defense. I had to check to make sure it wasn't a recycled episode of YesMinister.
So we’re cool with this “ally” intentionally target our ship and lie about it afterwards? It is extremely unfortunate that Israel has become synonymous with Judaism, because now one cannot criticize the government’s actions without also invoking a claim of anti-semitism. The two can exist in parallel. Respect for the Jewish faith, but disdain for the religiously-condoned land grab that fuels the terror that perpetuates such horrific attacks as 10/7, and backstopped by Iran.
I love how some countries are immune from criticism no matter what they do or how they conduct war and internal security operations based on nationality or ethnicity. Labels get thrown around for some not so much for others.
Well since Israel’s existence has been threatened since 1948, I’d say after 10/7 they have had enough. They were surprised by the attack and I’d surmise they are not going to let it happen again.
And prior to 1948 the sole goal of the Zionist Congress in the late 1800’s was to settle in land that was not theirs. Sure, in the Kingdom of David it was, but that’s not how land ownership works.
Really? Then tell that to the Arabs that came afterward. That's not how land ownership has ever worked, either. Nobody ever owns land...they hold it while they can defend it. If we break down in this country, somebody else will take over here, too. That is the nature of humanity from the first fight between tribes on the savannah over food or water.
Surprised? An intel org that supposedly is the best on the planet? That listens in on everything and knows where everyone is? And on the 50th anniversary of a very important war they had their troops stand down and left a bunch of festival goers on the border intensely vulnerable? I'd suggest something more sinister but.... I mean on 9-11 don't we recognize that the Anniversary People might be up to no good and intensify our patrols? None of it made sense then and it still doesn't make sense.
Israel will take whatever the USA is willing to hand out to its (Israel's) enemies. As well, Israel will use the opportunity provided by a distracted, if undestroyed, Islamic Republic of Iran to deal with more proximate adversaries. Thus the adventure in Lebanon, and elsewhere, to degrade Iran's regional proxies. All in all, a good solid piece of work. Israel is nothing if not pragmatic to the core. Goes with the territory.
And drags us into these endless wars that Israel can’t figure out a solution. Killing more terrorists, that have children they grow up to become terrorists in the future. When does this end? We can’t kill our way out of this predicament unless we kill everyone involved. And to note, Iran is an enemy we created. Toppling their democracy, supporting the SAVAK, enabling and encouraging Saddam in the 80’s, blowing their jet airliner out of the sky. And despite all of that, Iran offered to help the Bush administration post 9/11. And we wonder why they hate us so much.
Israel and worldwide Jewry, given its uniquely hard-won and dearly paid-for insight into the matter, has been pointing out the solution to dealing with radical Islam since before this small state came into being as a member of the world's nations. To date, most Western countries (including Israel) have been either or both unable and unwilling to deal with the problem. It is an open question whether the ongoing demographic conquest of Europe by Islam will result in victory for them or, given increasingly likely precipitate actions by Western military forces, a completely different set of rules going forward. We shall see.
You can’t be a democratic country if you enforce an apartheid.
When was the Jewish community pointing out the solution to radical Islam? Prior to when the settler-colonist project began and that started pissing off their new neighbors?
Show me historical evidence there was a contentious front against “radical Islam” prior to the formation of Israel?
Progroms have been a historical threat to Jewish communities throughout the world(word comes from Russian/Yiddish, not from Arabic), to include the Arab-dominated MENA region (but every minority has suffered discrimination, regardless of specific ethnicity in MENA. Furthermore, hundreds of thousands of Jews inhibited all corners of the Arab world, prior to the formation of Israel. If there ever was a real existential threat to Jewish communities in MENA existing, wouldn’t these populations have been essentially ethnically cleansed?
If anything, the white power threat from Europe overwhelms anything that Arabs posed, I mean the Holocaust very nearly achieved its tragic goals.
Now Arab states want to repeat it, which I’ll absolutely agree, cannot happen. But I’m not gonna leave Israel (not the Jewish people) without blame.
The part I am missing is what we used to call Force Protection. You need to have structures to protect you from direct and indirect fires if you are in a static position. If there wasn't any plans for bunkers beforehand, it should be on the NCO's at least to try to improvise. I know we have better barriers now but culverts and sandbags is better than a T-shirt. On another subject I posted that in most if not all European armies, Air Defense is an Air Force function, not the Army. It is an abomination that CONUS AFBs don't have Air Defense. They probably don't have bunkers either. Get Serious.
It would seem, since the Gulf states are saying "don't leave without changing the regime" that they should supply ground troops to go into Iran. We can back them up with air power to prevent any serious opposition from gathering to oppose them and take out any obstacles. We can take the Strait to open it for our ships by taking all the islands from Kharg to Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, Qeshm, Larak, and Hormuz...do it in sequence and put Arab troops there to keep them. Then we can stage from them to put two beachheads in place...take the oil fields in the SW and land in the SE to bring in the Arab ground troops. We can hold it with Marines while we transport Arab troops to the mainland. It is unlikely, after any initial fighting, that the beachhead would face any pressure beyond some drones.
I am not saying they are great fighters, but they are bodies. You flood the zone with 100,000 in their joint force and let them take the lead. We provide "aerial artillery" and logistical support. The troops in the SW hold the oil fields, the ones in the SE push up to Zahedan as your chief logistical hub, then send a force NW toward Qom...phase lines from Kerman to Birjand (pause to shut off Bandar Abbas from the North while our forces take the port as a supply point). SW force moves towards Bandar Abbas from Shiraz, sanitizing the coast as they move. Once the coast and port are cleared, Western forces head from Shiraz to Esfahan to Qom. Eastern forces on the right flank from Kerman on Qom, placing blocking forces on secondary roads and/or utilizing them for ILOCs and maneuver of forces.
Now, Iran is going to concentrate their forces somewhere around Qom...giving us targets to attrit from the air. Once we develop this and get the Iranians concentrated around Qom (and attrit them during movement and any concentration of forces), then we invade from Iraq with the Kurds and our SOF directly toward Tehran.
But let the Kurds and Arabs lead the way - make it their war and let the Persian people, and whatever ex-pats (son of the Shah) we can get, rise with the Arab troops to overthrow the regime while we stay in the background. If it is ripe and going to happen, then the citizens will point out any hidden regime elements and jihadists in their midst.
Obviously this is more POLMIL strategic planning and lots more goes into an OPLAN but that was from a few minutes thought and typing here. The military obviously have plans like these, and a lot of variations - we've thought of how we would invade Iran, if necessary. The rub is getting the Arabs involved. They will only commit so many forces because they are scared of their own security at home and possible Islamic terrorists in their own countries acting on Iran's behalf. So, we might have to provide rear security in their countries to make this type of scenario possible. The problem is, when they see our forces in theater, they usually expect us to do the heavy lifting...so, it is a dance.
"I am not saying they are great fighters, but they are bodies. You flood the zone with 100,000 in their joint force and let them take the lead. We provide "aerial artillery" and logistical support. "
So you're saying the Vietnamese shouldn't have been responsible for fighting for their own interests? Or that Arabs shouldn't be a part of fighting for what they want?
You protest our boots on the ground - or our troops going to Vietnam or Iran - and ignore our national security concerns and interests to make such a pig-headed, ignorant comment simply because you are rooting for failure and cheerleading Iran.
" and ignore our national security concerns and interests to make such a pig-headed, ignorant comment simply because you are rooting for failure and cheerleading Iran."
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Critics of the Viet Nam war were accused much the same way. Steady on, okay?
Our national security concerns are not being addressed by this war, as evidenced by the fact that Iran supposedly went from an "obliterated" nuclear program to "two weeks away from a bomb" in nine months -- which tells you something about haw bad our intelligence community must be if they missed that development.
Hamas admitted it attacked innocent Israelis because it felt it was becoming irrelevant -- Israel was about to achieve another diplomatic recognition with another Arab state. Slowly but surely -- and to lasting effect -- Iran and its proxies realized that they (Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah) were being sidelined. THAT is how you get peace in the Middle East. Let the Iranians stew in their own juices.
Instead, we have given Iran a new, younger, more hard-line successor to the old leader, preventing them from having a succession crisis. Attaboy, Donald!
Beg pardon, blasting their military industrial capacity back to spears and rocks is definitely addressing the subject. The Iranian negotiators are the ones who bragged how close they were to nukes, which is what started all this. Yes, you do want failure so you can scream IMPEACHMINTS 47! We've been to this rodeo before. Persian citizens have been stewing in their own juices (blood) for 47 years. New Younger Dude may have a one-week shelf life too. Yogurt has a better prognosis. Our intel community might just suck because it has spent the better part of the last decade spying on US citizens and US presidents than doing its damn job. I'm sure you approved.
"Critics of the Viet Nam war were accused much the same way."
And often correctly so, and the likes of Oliver Stone and Matt Damon are reinforcing that such accusations often were and are true. If I have to deal with another idiot that claims the CIA intercepted Ho Chi Minh's (provably insincere) letters to Truman........
"Our national security concerns are not being addressed by this war, as evidenced by the fact that Iran supposedly went from an "obliterated" nuclear program to "two weeks away from a bomb" in nine months -- which tells you something about haw bad our intelligence community must be if they missed that development."
Non sequitur. No matter what interpretation you use with those data points (that both are false, the former is true and the latter false, the former is false and the latter is true, both are true), they would not cancel out the Iranian Mullahcracy's sustained and indeed genocidal terroristic hostility to us and our allies - including but not limited to Israel - and intent to continue producing Uranium for what is ultimately military ends. And indeed if BOTH intel points are true it points to the Mullahs sparing no expense to rebuild their nuclear weapons program for hostile purpose, something that both major parties in the US and many abroad have at least THEORETICALLY agreed is a red line that they must not be allowed to cross precisely BECAUSE of how a nuclear armed Iranian Mullahcracy is an existential threat to the national security of the US and a host of other countries worth addressing by any means possible, including violent force.
"Hamas admitted it attacked innocent Israelis because it felt it was becoming irrelevant -- Israel was about to achieve another diplomatic recognition with another Arab state. Slowly but surely -- and to lasting effect -- Iran and its proxies realized that they (Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah) were being sidelined. THAT is how you get peace in the Middle East. Let the Iranians stew in their own juices."
Something Something Osama Strong Horse comment here. Now we have far more protracted Israeli-Sunni Arab engagement than before, and a humiliated Iran with a collapsing "Axis of Resistance." Moreover, obtaining nuclear weapons or at least posturing about doing so and threatening to use them is one of the key strategies Iran could use to counter this strategy of "let them stew in their own juices", and while I'm normally loathe to trust Witkoff I am going to assume he is not only more reliable than the apocalyptic nutjobs who have deceit towards infidels woven into their religion but that if he is claiming this openly and not being contradicted by intermediaries we used then he is telling the truth that the Mullahs did threaten about nearly weapons grade uranium.
Meaning that regardless of whether or not the intelligence was good or not, the Iranians claimed they were weeks away from breakthrough capacity and postured about it. That made continued delays untenable.
"Instead, we have given Iran a new, younger, more hard-line successor to the old leader, preventing them from having a succession crisis. Attaboy, Donald!"
I have no idea where you are getting this idea but Iran is already in a succession crisis, as shown by how the IRGC and the Clerical Leadership are openly countermanding one another and making themselves look like divided fools who can't even agree among themselves. Their supposed Supreme Leader is incommunicado and possibly gay, comatose, a cardboard cutout in the metaphorical and/or literal sense, and in a deep credibility deficit while the sharks and other actors swarm. You think that isn't a succession crisis?
Jack Zollinger and Nutria Hunter are asking the right question. The military objectives were defined. The burden-sharing plan was not.
Iran can close the Strait tomorrow. Who pays to reopen it? American taxpayers — again.
That's the structural gap the Gulf Maritime Protection and Burden Sharing Act addresses. The nations whose economies depend on Hormuz have been free-riding for decades. Operation Epic Fury just put that failure on the front page.
Time to change the arrangement permanently — IOHO.
Didn't have to go vulgar, but you are correct. The goals Sal stated twice aren't the same goals. More importantly, does any ledger find the cost worth the benefit being pursued?
Dude, you can say a lot of things about The Donald, but he’s clearly not gay. Not everybody who works in Hollywood is a homosexual, and even if they are, what’s wrong with that?
Hello Neo-Nazi troll. I believe you lost any justification to talk about “history” around the time you began complaining about Churchill and the Jews rather than Hitler and Stalin as the proximate cause for WWII, and insisted it was impossible for the Strait to be opened while Iran existed, ignoring dozen of times in history including most relevantly Operation Praying Mantis.
I am not sure everyone here knows your particular flavor of deluded, vile nonsense or ulterior motives, but I think it is worth noting.
There is a military plan, sure. That’s a straw man. War is politics by other means and Iran is eating Trump’s lunch because there is no political plan other than wishcasting regime change.
Iran can keep the Strait closed as long as they want and just extort tolls to fund their nuke program. Who is the winner in that scenario? What will we have accomplished - politically?
Regime change is a bonus. Burying 440kg of 60% HEU is the goal.
@Citizen Deux
(Quote)
"Burying 440kg of 60% HEU is the goal."
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Utterly failed to do that, either last year or last month. Did manage to get them to debate officially withdrawing from the non proliferation treaty though!
So what's your next move, using tactical nuclear weapons as a "preventative strike", which Israel is very much wanting Trump to do for them?
What part of "is the goal" is confusing? And your knowledge comes from where? The trio of Socio-Religious authoritarian screeds you follow?
The political goal is clearly signalled by the military goals - remove Iran’s ability (and, one hopes, desire) to make mischief in the broader world.
I find it very encouraging that Trump is saying “We don’t need Hormuz open, so we aren’t going to open it and guarantee passage. If you need it open, open it yourself.” Military/political goals based on American interests are a nice change of pace.
So it's in America's interests to (1) leave the mullahocracy in place, and (2) allow it to enrich itself and harm the global economy by taxing commerce through the straight?
Not sure how you get there from what I wrote.
We know you can't get there or you would not have written it in the first place.
You don't like it, get your own country together, and fight Iran yourself.
Mark Steyn has something to say worth reading on the matter...
https://www.steynonline.com/16120/strait-man
Enrich on what? The oil that can't get out of their ports to the world because (checks notes) they have the strait closed? The mullahocracy will have to find new rubble to hide under if they want to continue their toxic behavior. Other countries have plenty of oil. But this might upset China a bit.
Iran currently controls the Strait of Hormuz and decides who gets through. Currently getting through it: tankers belonging to countries that are not allied with the belligerents in this war (Israel and USA).
Trump's current position is "I don't care; if you care, you should send your own military to do something about it." He is willing to end this war with Iran taxing traffic through the strait, which is not something they had before the war.
So the mullahs are not going to hide under the rubble for much longer. They're going to come out and tax shipping. If you do not like this development, do your part by insisting that Trump not stop the war until the strait is open.
This mission without regime removal is a failure.
Nope.
Regime removal would be desirable, a bonus, but the goal of the operation was to destroy -- really set back and delay by many years -- the Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
All else is gravy.
We don't need to spend 20 years in Iran hoping they can become a working partner on the world stage.
Iraq and Afganistan are a warning for such ventures.
Our one success at that was RoK and they have voted to be communist recently.
So why try.
One of the arguments in favor of the Iran war is that they're a state sponsor of terrorism that has been at war with the United States for 47 years. While degrading Iran's nuclear program is an unqualified good, we're not solving it forever and we're not solving other problems if we leave the mullahs in place while giving them a new revenue source.
9/11 wasn't an expensive operation. We're giving Iran more than enough money to find terrorism for years to come.
To be completely fair to you, there have been a lot of arguments, some of which conflict with each other, that get made depending on what it takes to make it sound like Trump knows that he's doing, and I don't know if you ever made this one.
But really the best comparison here isn't Iraq and Afghanistan in this millennium. It's the off-and-on bombing of Iraq through the 90's, which promised to end their WMD program but never accomplished anything
That is a European problem.
Unfortunately, the world is more complicated than that. Oil is a fungible commodity, meaning that disruptions and/or local squeezing of the maritime pipeline affect everyone, including industries and consumers in the U.S. See Sal Mercagliano’s “What’s Going on With Shipping?” on YT for details. The global economy has infinitely more moving parts than even the U.S. economy, and we see every day that no one, absolutely no one, in a position of power has a clue about that.
Oil is not a fungible commodity. You need to get that idea out of your noggin.
Refineries are designed and built to process a specific type of crude oil, and cannot have different crude from different locations from the place whose crude it was designed to process. Oil is not soybeans. (And even crops are not totally fungible. )
Then why am I paying $4 for gas? I should be putting non-fungible American gas in my tank at $2.25.
can I modify that a bit?
Refineries are built to prefer a certain thickness and sweetness of crude to produce its target output. raw crude can be blended from various sources to meet that preferred input spec.
If willing to produce a sub-optimal output, a refinery can use a different input set, up to a point, but the result will be more expensive and increase maint costs.
Fair enough. I knew that, but erred in simplifying when commenting. But that fact supports my initial thought that things are far more complicated than most people in power understand.
But the US is a net oil exporter, which means that price increases help US producers more than they hurt US consumers.
True, but there are a lot more consumers voting than oil companies.
Oil is a small portion of the US economy. Many more people are going to be feeling pain from higher gas prices than happy because more rigs are running (not that there are, since oil companies have learned to be careful with capex)
But then why telegraph moving Airborne and Marines into theater? I would tend to discount whatever Trump says, and focus on what is being done. When I reason that way, I’m not getting a warm, fuzzy feeling.
I'm pretty skeptical that this war is going to accomplish much and I am utterly convinced that Trump has no idea what he's doing.
But if you're trying to get Iran to the negotiating table, credibly threatening an invasion seems like a good idea.
Oil is fungible. We're going to pay just as much for it as everyone else.
I like my bank account to be worth something more than being just a number. So do you. Fowling this for the world will end the dollar's reign.
The political plan could well be that Iran, China, and Russia are funding the Democrats, so taking Persian Gulf oil shipments out could drain the Democrat coffers for buying fraud with.
The Democrats are an adversary to the American people, and the rest of the world are also adversaries.
We aren't convicting the Democrats yet, that is premature, in advance of having any really persuasive evidence prepared for court.
The Democrats maybe have purely domestic funding, and purely domestic motivations. In which case, interdicting the rest of the world would not hamper Democrat operations.
The Democrat operation, judging by the last two decades, seems to be (checks notes) fundamentally changing the country. Not in a good way. They hate us and so their domestic motivations are not in our interest either. I think of Greek admiral, one Laskarina Bouboulina and her words "Are you women then and not men?" as she led the sailors in a sea battle. Yes, I could ask the same question of some of these posters here. Let go of those pearls, ladies, and get a grip! A reminder the Great Game has been going on longer than 47 years, the players just change. But sea lanes remain vital and we need to plan our own Navy better to account for that.
Correct...no one likes to hear the realities but there it is. Israel wanted this war, thats just a fact, and now we pay the price. NONE of the objectives posted above are reachable or have strategic effect. Iran has NO navy or airforce and the planes and old boats we sink mean nothing. Our bombs have no effect on their missile forces either. Their factories are buried under mountains...BIG mountains. Inflateable decoys are everywhere and the lauchers are mobile anyway. Iranian leadership is resilient and they know how to PLAN unlike our leadership.... This conflict is not sustainable for the United States at this point.
Israel did want the war, but it is also in the US interest. That is some reality for you.
You have a positively delusional view of the effect of the campaign on Iran. Iran's leaders are so wise and resilient that their pre-war leaders are now dead and buried inside their bunkers.
Those leaders PLANNED for their possible assassinations and made sure their deaths were an EXAMPLE. Our targeted assasinations have now solidified support behind the Mullahs. Their replacements are making sure it stays that way, no regime change is possible now.
This war might please some neocon fools in washington but the fallout for the rest of us peons and working stiffs is disasterous. Diesel fuel powers most everything here at some point for instance. Your groceries, Amazon and Walmart junk come on semi's powered by it. Priced a gallon of diesel lately? The loss of soft power and the petro dollar are just icing on the cake for Iran at this point.
Steve New: "Those leaders PLANNED for their possible assassinations and made sure their deaths were an EXAMPLE."
Wow, that was really foresighted of them to get themselves killed. When you explain it that way, I must admire their genius.
You still mad, bro?
This is the crux of it. Of course the military has plans. I have huge confidence in our military to achieve whatever goal is set forth for it. But what is the goal? Contra the essay it has shifted around with every Trump tweet (Rubio has tried to stay consistent but he can only diverge from his boss's line so much). Did we get into the war because Israel was going to take action and we had to get on board? Rubio said that early on. Are we not going to leave until we get the HEU? Trump has said that at times but now seems to be backing away from it. Is regime change a component? Trump changes his mind on that day to day. Are we going to commit war crimes (deliberately attacking civilian infrastructure) to get the Straights open, or are we actually okay with them staying closed? Depends on what time of day you ask the president. This all comes against the backdrop of what many suspected were lies even at the time, now confirmed to be untrue, that our earlier bunker strikes had destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities. The question isn't if the US military can defeat Iran. Of course it can. The question is what political goals, if any, are we actually trying to achieve and what are we willing to do to achieve them? Trump is just making it up as he goes along and he's already looking for an off ramp because he's lost interest, it's not fun anymore.
More than one thing can be true, and when you are negotiating it is a good idea to remain unpredictable and keep the opposition guessing. So, he isn't telling everyone everything and what he is, is obscured by a variety of messages. Just because YOU aren't informed doesn't mean they don't know what they're doing. It just means YOU don't know.
Looking back at Trump’s track record as president it seems much, much more likely that he’s being as random and impulsive as ever rather than this being the one time he’s actually executing some deep strategic concept (which he’s never shown himself capable of doing before). Other than wishful thinking why would anyone believe he’s being anything over than his random and inconsistent self?
Yeah, you know, it isn't like he has outsmarted the Washington Establishment and Dem party to get elected or anything. Or gotten most of the ME to sign onto the Abraham Accords. Or gotten NATO countries to show their cards and expose their duplicity. Or snatched Maduro from a heavily fortified military base. Or decapitated the Iranian leadership already and decimated their military and weapons programs.
No, the man never has a plan and just never wins at anything he sets his hand to. You nailed it, didn't you? He didn't even consult the military on any of this - just surprised them one day. You're sooooo intelligent, aren't ya?
Politics is for Iranians to figure out.
The mission is to prevent Iran someday sending missiles tipped with Nukes into US cities or Naval Task forces and bases.
Iranian muslim's tend to want to kill in masses anyone who offends their religion or won't pay the Jizya.
You are assigning your own outcome beliefs to a multi-variate calculus viewed as a static formulation.
Do this in 1940 Europe with the demostrable indices at that time and you'd look obvious. Predict a complete and utter collapse of the world's most progressive and fanatic war machine in the final week of April 1945, and you'd look like a savant.
This is not an 'A' v. 'B' equation, as you claim.
I think you are missing the fact the U.S. and Israel have the lever of escalation still in hand. One expects negotiations are going on to amongst the stated objectives to also open the straight. Sticks such as we will take out your refining capacity, we will destroy your export infrastructure on Kharg and elsewhere, we will destroy your electric generation capacity, and others, remain. Carrots, such as we won’t do those things, you can stay in power, cooperate and set up a regional management of the Strait, with you involved, you can continue to bleed the nation of treasure into your personal accounts, we willl destroy help you upgrade your oil infrastructure( for a price), etc. Your choice.
Iranians can escalate too. Taking out power and water to our gulf allies means the whole world burns with them.
Goddamn it, this needs to be plastered on every news site. I can’t even comprehend what part of OPLAN these idiots don’t understand. The J3/5/7 shops work non f-n stop on this. Every major exercise is built of these elements.
This is not a pick up game. What’s always unknown is what our adversaries (and allies) will do.
Allies? lol what allies.
I spit out my coffee on this.
The ones who gave President Trump two sword dances and a hair dance, for starters. Japan. Quite a few in Eastern Europe.
What about J2 and J4?
Naturally the J2 guys routinely do their own thing and revise their OPSINTEL briefs while the J4 crew is almost always asked as an afterthought when we realize we need to do R5.
Need to add paraquat all the khat crop in Yemen.
And emergency building of refineries and coal-to-liquid fuel plants.
Coal-to-liquid plants would represent a significant financial commitment; one that would be subject to the whims of Congress, and therefore demand a great deal of faith on the part of private money. Another way of relieving demand on petro fuels would be to build a boatload of small nuclear plants.
Atomic Blender YouTube channel makes a pretty good argument for large reactors; the higher enrichment necessary for smaller reactors makes the electricity too expensive.
Thanks for the new info.
Khat is grown in Kenya and Ethiopia, too. Both friendly countries. There's a booming trade by air and sea.
It's lovely stuff, better than RipIt or Red Bull.
Agree there's a war plan. But was it tossed to the side for the sake of expediency? Now you don't have much of a plan. I really only wanted ONE THING out of the plan made public and we worked hard to make that unclas and that was Commander's Intent. What is it? Update us on the progress of it. I think ADM Cooper's updates are good. I think we're seeing a different public affairs approach (no embedded media; no real briefings) and I understand that. I also think you create an information vacuum that will be filled. BTW...if we're looking for an off-ramp, then the plan didn't match the strategy. We should know when we're at the destination and call it a day.
Any "plan" that did not state in the first bullet point something like, while protecting shipping and maintaining oil sea lanes open, we are going to .... was no plan.
If we don’t need Hormuz open, why would it be our primary goal?
Because the market gets the yips without Hormuz open, and Trump is on records as saying that he's very concerned about yippy markets. Just ask him about tariffs.
So Hormuz is an important goal. Number one, per Trump, is "approved" regime change, which instantly de-legitimized any approved regime.
That's why.
Because the United States participates in a global economy where the purchasing power of the nations that depend on Mideast oil is tied to America's economic well-being.
That strikes me as the kind of second-order effect that (a) should be those country’s primary concern and (b) once the US decides that the health of other countries’ economies is its primary concern, where does that end?
We didn't give them a chance to make it their primary concern. Other countries didn't have a say in this matter. We didn't ask them to prepare for this war. We didn't tell them it was happening. They woke up one morning to oil price shocks.
And perhaps I didn't make myself clear: it's not the health of Europe's economy for its own sake that concerns us. It's that Europe is a market for $1 trillion of US exports, and if Europe is poorer, that directly hurts Americans.
It’s also a tacit acceptance of the uptilnow shaking down of the US whilst whinging about how mean the US is. Is now time for another reminder that appeasement never works?
Well, to be fair, this CinC doesn't always telegraph his plans to the enemy. So there's that.
> ...I've about had enough of you people...
Well, we *are* literally the worst. ;)
> Do you really think we’re going to just post the whole thing up on 4chan or something?
*cough*
Well, no, it would probably be some asshole pushing it to Discord...
So, since I am *not* a naval architect like my father (Hi, dad!) I have no idea how practical or difficult it would be to build up a "Q-Tanker" that had adequate antimissile and anti-fastboat capabilities (mostly thinking in terms of structural supports and rigidity requirements) to make the push; Running a couple of those through the Strait when appropriately tasked Keyholes are overhead to see where the openings to the bunkers are located seems like a decent means of surviveably luring those assets out, in order to locate that targeting data. Which would allow us to then drop ... "appropriate" ordnance on them to entomb them forever.
Or perhaps just slapping a number of R2D2s and 5 inchers on every American flagged tanker (and every tanker that suddenly *wants* to be American flagged) along with a detachment of Marines to run them -- along with some legal tomfoolery to make them part of the US Navy, if that's required to get ports to let them dock -- becomes the new standard when dealing with Strait of Hormuz runs.
Or maybe I'm an ignorant fool making suggestions that sound kinda bad-ass and are actually completely retarded. That does happen, on occasion. ;)
Grant's navy "ran the batteries" at Vicksburg!
However, the Germans never attempted the RAF at Gibraltar
Well, if reports are to be believed, the Iranian Air Force other than the drone armada are a complete non-entity. So that would seem to be a non-factor, so long as whatever we might theoretically bolt to these ships can handle drones as well as fastboats and incoming antiship missiles.
I suppose I haven't proposed any sort of solution to the "mine" problem, which is certainly a problem.
I dunno. As I say, maybe it's a *really* stupid idea. I am definitely *way* out of my lane here. I write code, babysit very large computers, and build cars. You will note that "Naval Armament and Tactics" is not on that list. 🤣
Your faith is touching, but when has Trump *ever* had a comprehensive plan for anything? His talents are visceral and impulsive, not thoughtful and deliberate. That makes him a great politician, but a lousy wartime president.
An intact, radicalized Iranian regime hell-bent on avenging the ayatollah remains in power. Their nuclear program is also intact. Tehran now controls the Straits of Hormuz, to boot, as American military power proved inadequate (in the eyes of the world) to the task. NATO is in total disarray. The Gulf States feel deeply betrayed. American and Israeli missile stocks are depleted. Iranian missile attacks are *increasing* in frequency, and are still doing serious damage. Inflation is on the rise. And, the petrodollar now faces the very real prospect of being unseated by the yuan.
This is shaping up to be the most comprehensive American strategic defeat in our history. The game isn't up quite yet, but we need some serious miracles.
You think General Caine and the entire military head shop had nothing to do with any of this? Your cynical pessimism is both annoying and misinformed and born more of your antipathy for Trump than any realistic analysis of the situation.
In your mind Iran is winning even given all of their military infrastructure being destroyed, their civilian and top military leadership eliminated, and their nuclear program destroyed - all the centrifuges and heavy water infrastructure are gone and we won't allow them to rebuild it. But, sure, their "nuclear program is intact" according to you. I also doubt that anybody in the world is questioning US military power or capabilities - most importantly the Chinese whose wonder radars and air defenses came up with a big zero in Venezuela and Iran. If anybody's military tech and capabilities are being questioned, it is China's.
The Gulf states are pretty united...and will be when this is over.
You have no idea about what the "missile stocks" are except the hysterical bleating in the media, which also has no idea. Yes, we used missiles so "reduced"? Yeah, we used missiles. "Depleted" means not having the substantial numbers needed to meet our military commitments...and that is BS. It is also BS that Iranian "missile attacks are increasing"...stop listening to Iranian propaganda. They fired a lot of missiles, we destroyed most of their missile stock, we destroyed 95% of their fixed missile sites and are bombing the rest, and they're down to a small number of mobile launchers that we are also hunting and destroying.
But do keep posting. When this all ends up, we'll go back and review your opinions. It is shaping up to be the most embarrassing load of horse puckey every posted. You're deluding yourself with a bunch of wish casting to support our enemy because of your inability to deal with Trump winning the Presidency. Get over it and get your mind right.
This is TDR in action. There are things about Trump that everyone has to acknowledge. For example, he is tremendously charismatic; the man clearly has ability to inspire or influence others. But, a careful, cautious, methodical planner. Dude!?
Once you started down the "Trump has a plan," you lost all credibility. If you can't acknowledge the man's flaws, your touting of his virtues is just fanboy nonsense.
Trump has a military and a lot of Generals...they've had plans, they have plans, if nothing else...there are plans. Endlessly war gamed and played out in many different contingencies. The moment you think "Trump came up with the plan" beyond outlining the strategy of destroying all of their capacity to build nuclear weapons and missiles, wellllll, you just wandered off the range didn't you?
Builders are known for being extremely careful planners with attention to all sorts of details the people who know nothing about buildings seem to miss. It's a transferable skill. Stop your yip yapping, it makes you sound deranged.
Trump is a scammer, not a builder. He's a reality TV star, not a builder.
Yeah, the guy's planning and executing everything on his lonesome.
Ah, but what's this! Like "Leif" above, "Tom Yardley" is another SS account set up in 2023...very few subscribers...no posts...no activity...suddenly delivering carefully honed anti-Trump messages.
Shoo, pest.
4D chess baby! Trust ze plan baby! White hats are in charge baby! Trump the super hero baby!
The best one.. Trump has a mandate from God!
I voted for Trump, but I'm not blinded by ideology. Our missile stocks are depleted (no shortage of coverage of this in the defense industry press, not MSM), as is our industrial base. On the rate of Iranian missile attacks, I should've been more specific. The three-day average of strikes is increasing. Obviously, it's still *way* down from the beginning of the war.
I have no doubt that the US military planning has been excellent. Unfortunately, the problem is one of strategy. The operational performance of the US and Israeli militaries has been superb, but that shouldn't blind us to the unhappy strategic reality. We haven't accomplished regime change. We haven't destroyed the Iranian nuclear program. We can't safely transit the Straits. NATO countries are actively defying us. Even Poland, our most reliable NATO ally, just refused our request to transfer their Patriot missiles to us.
China is in a strong position. Their equipment has not done particularly well, as you correctly note. But, everyone knows that China sells inferior versions of its gear ("monkey models" in Russian parlance), as do we. Nor should one assume that the Iranians have the same standard of training as the PLA. Meanwhile, the US has been withdrawing military assets from East Asia to frantically reinforce the Iran operation. People there notice. Indeed, the Philippines just started negotiations with China on oil & gas reserves. Best of all, Iran is insisting that oil passing through the Straits must be paid for in yuan. That's a major challenge to the dollar. Given the drones and missiles raining down on their kingdoms, I'm sure that the Gulf States will hedge their future military and diplomatic bets with closer ties to China, as well. They're also outraged by the Israeli incursion into Lebanon.
Power is about perception, and the perception of American power is now greatly diminished. The president told the world that he would pick the next Iranian leader and control their oil. That ain't happening. Food (the Gulf provides much of the world's fertilizer feedstock) and fuel prices are soaring around the world. Most of the world won't blame Iran for the hardships imposed on them. They will blame American hubris.
Nemesis follows in the wake of hubris.
Oh, here we go...the whole "Monkey Models" thing again. Monkey Tanks, monkey missiles, monkey radars...it is always the excuse for why they fail. Except they never said that when they went to sell those on the market and nobody will be buying them in the future based on this performance - trust and all of that. So they won't be able to curry favor with governments by saying "we'll supply military equipment to protect you" - nobody is buying that. When we send M-1s to Ukraine, we told them they had the special armor stripped along with some of the systems...up front, no hiding. China is in a MUCH weaker position.
As to Poland "giving up" THEIR Patriot batteries, yeah we felt out Poland...they didn't want to send them given their (rightful but paranoid) concern about the Russians. Of course, the other side of refusing such requests is getting future arms purchases and agreements fulfilled or authorized. It can go both ways and governments have to consider that.
"Defense Industry Press"...really? Come on. Been reading reports from anonymous industry sources in The War Zone propaganda? Regular contributions from McGregor and Ritter? We've all been saying for a long time "make more missiles" as we always want more because we will shoot more than we think in a war. They've ramped up production - but if you think any of them have any idea what the inventories are besides "we've used 850 Tomahawks" talking points, you're believing it because you want to believe it.
NATO countries have not been our true allies since the fall of the Soviet Union - and maybe a little bit before that. They haven't pulled their weight for decades and, while their military guys are good people, their governments haven't given the funding or resources necessary to BE allies. They are philosophically and ideologically bereft of passion and direction for their civilizations and are on the precipice of a civilizational decline based on a demographic collapse and conquest by migrants. They are not reliable nor even capable of recognizing their own peril - because they would have to admit their ideological preconceptions were incorrect, not just wrong but wrong-headed. NATO has no teeth, the EU has no teeth, and they have no capabilities beyond cheerleading and providing a pastiche of "multi-lateral" action to what we do.
Yeah, I doubt anyone is doubting American power - and the willingness to deploy it when necessary to ruin your day, your week, your month, or even your year. The last act isn't written, except in your pessimistic, cynical mind. You're going to be surprised how it all turns out in the end. I doubt you'll appreciate it, though, as you'll be off trying to find the next thing to be incorrect about.
Alternate facts: Yanbu is pumping out 7 million bpd to Red Sea ports, Iran's neighbors are grateful to us in ways you cannot imagine for stepping on their regional troublemaker and our status in the region is strong, and we are regarded with much more respect than the last doofus in office, whom I take it you voted for.
This Leif character sure seems confident in his opinions. I'm no military planner, just a son of many soldiers, but good golly Miss Molly, I can plainly see he has no idea as to what he's talking about. This is unfortunate and distracting, and is devouring an awful lot of words that could be more profitably used by starving children in Africa.
> I voted for Trump, but I'm not blinded by ideology.
Ah now I'm SURE you're a DNC bot/pest account. This is the word-for-word exact Hello Fellow Trump Voters opening tactic that was formerly used on /pol/
Look, just sod tf off. And grow a clue: it's somebody else's turn at the helm now.
You lot go back to your DEI and Fiery But Peaceful Riots messaging, and inventing new "derivatives" to play casino with, and serving as a money laundry haven and fraud planet...and let the grownups work.
And the rest of you swabs, would you stop engaging this pest? Your enthusiastic armchair opining is being elicited here as free focus grouping for the wankers whose idea of leadership has been a bunch of London School of Economics types playing games for the past 80 years.
They had a great military plan- Iran’s leadership dead, air forces destroyed and long range strike capabilities greatly hampered.
That doesn’t mean jack and shit if there isn’t a political plan.
Like we learned in Vietnam, you can kill way more of them than they kill you, but if they care more than you do and can wait things out better, then you still lose the war.
Well, our concern is keeping them from getting nuclear weapons and having missiles to hid behind while they do it. Done and doing. The political solution is up to the Persian people who want freedom and regime change. It is up to the Arab states to help them do that, with our support. If EU wants oil, it is up them to support ALL of that and to assist in the security environment.
It isn't all the on the US to make all of that happen, but we've created conditions where it can.
Higher oil prices affect us too. Higher fertilizer prices affect us too.
As for keeping them from getting nuclear weapons, I’m gonna press doubt on that when the presiden’s floating a pla to send operators in to physical take the HEU.
Decapitation!
The moral is not on US' side.
Oct 7, paid for by Iran. Yeah...we are.
Which is more moral? Killing the evil HMFICs or sending in thousands of our Joes to kill thousands of their Mohammeds and civilians?
Iranian leaders have been ordering the murder of US citizens for almost 50 years. They sponsor terrorism abroad and murder their own citizens for trivial offenses with impunity.
It is perfectly moral to kill people who are trying to kill you.
You know the USA financed Saddam's war on Iran, right? The one they used poison gas in.
No. Trumpanistas ignore anything inconvenient to their world-view. Netanyahu funded Hamas, too.
You know that you are making shit up, right? The only thing that the US did for Iraq during that war was make sure Iran didn’t win.
Not sure how really intact that regime is. Unless someone is stitching the body parts together as we speak. They have been shown that we can play whackamole if they don't cooperate. They have destroyed their relationship with their neighbors. Not sure who wants a career with the mullahocracy with a 2-day career trajectory at this point.
I guess Trump and Co. lucked out on the Venezuelan operation? Move in and fly off with the President on a wing and a prayer with no plan at all.
> Nearly empty account
> 1 subscriber
> no posts
> no activity
> suddenly weighing in with very carefully designed and articulated anti-Trump bullet points and doomy conclusion
Shoo, bot/pest/James Carville.
For the record I only got on Substack recently, have no subscribers, and mostly have posted on a few things, mostly on Sal’s substack. And while I think I have acquitted myself well judging by comments and likes (such as dumpstering Yardley the intellectual pedophile who got caught lying about Trump) my footprint is minimal here, and would fit the profile of what you describe were it not for how I am generally pro-Trump and pro-Israel (if a Neocon). So I would be careful how much weight you put on account activity or history.
More relevantly, the merits of an argument aren’t affected by whether it was spammed out by some sweatshop pay per post nonsense from the depths of St. Petersburg or Tehran or Dhaka. So I generally focus less on obsessing over whether or not someone is a bot or a troll or astroturf so much as whether or not their claims or arguments add up. And given the caliber of lots of this clown show I don’t need to worry about being bested much on this score by people who have never counted casualties or ship damage from the 1980s tanker war, and in Yardley’s case apparently never studied how Keynes himself began withdrawing from his analysis of Versailles (which made him famous) later in life, even if he never went anything like far enough.
I see this a lot. Which makes me question the person stalking other people’s account. Pointing fingers instead of considering the posters opinion.
I voted for Trump three times, yet now I have TDS because I started disagreeing with Trump on day two when he trotted Larry Ellison to announce AI data center public private partnerships and personalized mRNA clot shot to cure cancer.
Love ya Sal, but you're whistling past the graveyard.
When Trump says that "nobody knew" that Iran would attack neighboring countries to turn things into a regional war -- when EVERY game plan from Reagan on stated that Iran would do exactly that -- then "Trump has a plan" rings very, very, hollow.
Trump went in to bring about regime change. Didn't happen, won't happen, and Trump saying he has to "approve" Iran's successor leadership just instantly de-legitimized any successor that Trump "approves" of. So guess what? No regime change.
Then there's the small matter of how well we really degrade Iran's capacities when -- per Trump -- it was "two weeks" away from having a nuke only nine months after its nuclear program was -- again, per Trump -- "obliterated."
Finally, there the small matter of Trump not going to Congress for a declaration of war or an authorization to use force, making his little escapade un-Constitutional. Sing and dance all you (and Trump's Congressional lackeys) want, but this is a war, and we are at it.
Trump went in due to to political considerations. Trump went in because he wanted to stroke his own ego and "solve" Iran once and for all. He did not, however, go in with a plan.
And don't start with "measurable metrics." First, as noted above, Trump supposedly obliterated Iran's nuclear program. Right. Second, by any measurable metric, the US won our little doodle in Viet Nam ten times over, but who won the war? Hint -- it wasn't the US. Yet you post here about measurable metrics.
Maybe Greenland will come to Trump's rescue.
So weapons grade nuclear materials in the hands of religious nuts that would sacrifice their 90 million to kill America is ‘political’ theater.
You approach it in a very different manner than what we are doing now, including the fact that you don't hand Iran $14 BILLION in fresh money by letting it get paid for oil in transit because the markets are getting -- as Trump said about tariffs a year ago -- "the yips."
Besides, Iran's nuke program was obliterated nine months ago, remember?
The ability to process more uranium? Yep, that was destroyed. Now we've destroyed the rest of their program along with their ability to produce, deploy, and (soon) launch missiles.
Probably what you don't do, which precipitated ALL of this, is send the Iranians billions in frozen funds in cash and then give them an unverifiable "treaty" that creates a path for them to develop their nuclear program to the verge of having nuclear weapons (at best), with no verification measures, and would allow them to finalize a nuclear weapon in weeks (a break out). That is ALL what Obama did and that Biden and the Dems wanted to revive.
So stuff your politically based propaganda.
Actually, Obama's transfer was less than $1 billion, was money Iran already earned, and by all accounts Iran was observing the agreement with Obama (which many in Israel's military and intelligence services supported, BTW -- Bibi was against it, I grant you). Trump (carrying out your orders, Sal) gave Iran $14 billion in fresh funds with his oil-in-transit-okay decision.
The only way you stop Iran's nuclear program is with regime change, and you do that very differently from what Trump (Still on goal, Sal!) has done and the way he's doing it.
$14 billion buys a lot of nukes and program material.
There isn’t an objective measurable metric for tenacity in the case of the Ukrainians, or the regime-supporting Iranians. Both of which have been underestimated in both conflicts.
John, I think you could have typed “Trump” about five more in your comment. Try harder.
On it, boss!
Are you for real? If Trump were to say we knew Iran would attack neighbors, that would be giving away our planning models. He knows everyone, including you, is reading his tweets and he says what he intends to say for an audience that may not be you. Yes, he will probably have to approve of the leadership change so they don't replace one set of mullahs with another. THINK! Or we'd have to go back and get rid of the new ones. De-legitimize in whose eyes? We can't do the heavy lifting for the Persian people. It wasn't our goal going in. Those ICBMs at Diego Garcia should have been your wakeup call, but nope. I'm done reading nonsense from people who obviously aren't in the room where real plans are discussed ranting against Orange Man from their snippets of MSM propaganda. Have a great day. The reason we didn't win in Viet Nam was idiots in the press and politicians who framed the debate and conduct of the war in ways to guarantee it was a waste of time, money and precious blood. Plus ca change, meme ca chose.
"The reason we didn't win in Viet Nam was idiots in the press and politicians who framed the debate and conduct of the war in ways to guarantee it was a waste of time, money and precious blood. "
-----------------------------------------------
Take it from someone who is old enough to have listened to the news during the Viet Nam war, and who had relatives serving in it -- the press and politicians did not frame the debate. You're simply being delusional.
You want to know what did frame the Viet Nam debate? 55,000 US war dead and General Westmoreland telling Johnson that he needed 500,000 MORE troops. THAT framed the debate.
Let's put that 500,000 more troops request into context, shall we? Remember when the Shrub got the vapors because General Shineski told Congress that we'd need 500,000 troops to do the job properly in Iraq? The Shrub fired him. Westmoreland wanted 500k more than he already had.
So what framed the Iraq War debate? It wasn't press and politicians. It was a 20 year war and $2 TRILLION flushed down the drain by the time Trump negotiated his surrender treaty with the Taliban that Biden had no choice but to carry out.
What will frame the Iran War debate? Trump's (goal almost there, Sal!) complete and utter lack of a coherent plan.
John, your problem- many others have it as well- is you take everything said literally.
War is as much deception, feints and misdirection as it is raw power. Also, not all the results of war are understood right away. Sometimes they take years to be recognized.
So don't obsess any longer about Trump. It isn't his plan, it pre-dated him by decades. Trump is playing his part, his role(s) one of which is to get firmly entrenched in the minds of shallow thinkers such as yourself.
Lastly, the world is being reorganized. Pissing off NATO is intentional as we will leave Europe. New LNG terminals are coming online on the gulf coast just as the Persian Gulf is wrecked- happy coincidence, right? No, planned.
The old world is ending right before your eyes yet you want to continue it and are willing to berate those who are doing the hard work of preparing the nation for that new world. You'll never be able to see that big picture unless you drop the biases and open your mind.
Thank you, sir!! I occupied a trailer, in a lot that is now covered by a building, doing a job similar to yours, albeit a few years earlier. As the Interagency planner in the Joint Plans Group, I got a front row seat in the OEF and OIF planning efforts (and execution, until 2006). I never got read in to the Iran OPLANs, but I worked a few of the concepts in my military education program over the years. I have been a dissenter on the Kharg Island speculation, as I believe we control it already. My thoughts for the MEU (s) is the establishment of an Amphibious Operations Area, vicinity JASK and/or the islands in the straits. Curious as to the thoughts of others in this forum, as my experience in this theater has become stale.
If one grabs Professor Peabody and Sherman and we head to the “way back machine” we arrive at Camp LeJeune on 19/20 February 1979. 2nd Battalion, 2nd Marines were the air contingency force. Marine rifle platoon commanders from 3/2 were assigned the additional duty of augmenting 2/2’s rifle platoons in the event they were called out. Indeed they were. The “Alpha” increment headed to Cherry Point MCAS, and 60 Marines headed for Cyprus, the rest of the battalion to follow. This writer, as a rifle platoon commander with Mike 3/2 (yes there 4 rifle companies back in the day…) and one of the officers who was filling the gap, were told to stand by, so…we stood by, and stood by, and…stood by. Jimmy Carter and the remnants of the JFK, State Dept. aka the C team of Vance and Christopher, cautioned the WH tennis court planner against doing anything rash. So, America took a momentary pause. The Marines of 2/2 that deployed, never got further than Cyprus. In November of 1979, Carter would learn a painful lesson, (about the time that the coalition of the damned joined at the hip to the first grand Ayatollah were learning a lesson in the dialectic of revolutions) which is you can’t trust these guys and when will the lesson be learned you can’t negotiate with a tiger, when your head is in his mouth. Sadly 52 Americans that by “international rules of diplomacy” were denied their rights and freedom for 444 days. Where do they go and whom do they see to get their 444 days back…
So here we are, 47 years hence. It seems to be dawning on the region, that paying tribute to have “free” trade, which was expensive to start, didn’t earn you the protection that the Mafia bosses in Teheran had been extracting for that very issue of “free” trade, and the protection Vig wasn’t worth the time or money that had been spent. Whoops, you mean the bastards lied to us? Say it ain’t so, Joe. Now, all the world sees it. Does any right minded soul think the US Navy, as challenged as it is, (building ships seems to be a problem as example) didn’t and or doesn’t know where most if not all the mines are in the seabed of a 21 mile wide body of water that someone has been watching for 47 years? We do have submersibles don’t we…??? Seymour Hersh says our US Navy divers blew up the Nordstream 2 pipeline. No doubt the same Lance Corporal in the shitter two holes down from Seymour, who told him about Nordstream, said we don’t have a plan, and the mines are set to blow up the Straits of Hormuz forever. Guess the Gulf States should start building a pipeline, that is headed directionally across land to the west or north. (Hello Bechtel? Yes, we need a pipeline built ASAP)
As for the speculation about the 11th and 31st MEU’s now in the TOAR of the Persian Gulf, they don’t need to land anywhere or do anything, because they are doing plenty by making the IRGC have to think about what they might do. Planning and resources however limited have to now be spent trying to figure what the MEU’s might do. They can feint left and go right, feint right and go left. They can raid something, somewhere kill everyone and blow up everything and be gone in hours, at a place and time of their choosing or in this case the CENTCOM combatant commander. They don’t need to “hold” anything.
This writer is tired of Douglas MacGregor saying there is no plan. Tired of Scott Ritter saying he could negotiate his way out of the mess. For all their genius they didn’t know that the IRI had a ballistic missile with a range of 4,000 Kilometers, they didn’t know that IRO had squirreled away “some enriched uranium”. The time for talking has ended and we are in the shit now, so everyone ought to start pulling on the same rope. As Ben Franklin opined at one perilous moment we better stick together and hang together for surely if we do not, we shall hang separately. We are finding out just how bad the world is, it took the Orangeman Bad to pull the curtain back. Love or hate him, he pulled back the curtain, and the many global oldsters, are now observed naked and cold and are at best unattractive. Next nation up! Oh wait…no one waits a trick in the barrel. We are seeing the complete realignment of the world, and it ain’t a “rules based new world order” rather a messy world with 3 maybe 4 major spheres of national interest and wills being played out. If everyone thought the last several months have been interesting hang on to your hats and check your cracker jacks decoder rings for further instructions.
I was an infantry sergeant in 1/8 (Camp Geiger) at that time. Nobody could understand why we didn't go in after the Delta Force raid failed.
Interesting, I was at what was then The Infantry Training School, in spring of 1980, so we were out at Geiger at the same time. Small world! While it is still hazy, I believe 2/2 was meant to get to the Embassy and reinforce it in February of 1979. Send a signal, if the Mullahs and revolutionaries were not going to live up to international law (loosely said) then we would handle our own security on a broad level. If we had any leadership with brains we would have conducted a NEO, shredded and burned the shredded material, taken everything but the wall sockets and told the Ayatollah to forward our mail to the Swiss Embassy. For sure the IRI, was still a weak post embryonic regime in April of 1980. But, it would have been a major undertaking and no way Carter who narcissistically thought he would be re-elected was taking the chance of more KIA and WIA in an effort to clean up that bunch in Teheran. Fair to say, many of us felt betrayed.
Oh, I'm hoping for Trump and Co. to pull a Cuban hat trick sooner rather than later. Your opinions are sane and well stated. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-28/saudi-pipeline-that-bypasses-hormuz-hits-7-million-barrel-goal
Scott Ritter! People still believe that skunk!
CDR SALAMANDER thank you for the great post. Boy, as a military professional and military historian, I am absolutely seething with rage at these clueless keyboard warriors and armchair generals who have the gall to smugly declare “there is no plan!”
From Day 1, Pete Hegseth and General Dan Caine have laid out the mission objectives with crystal-clear precision: destroy Iran’s missile and drone arsenal, crush their navy and air force, and dismantle their military-industrial base so they can never threaten us again. They have been brutally honest that this is a focused punitive expedition that will take 4-6 weeks if the outcomes are met—and they have been unequivocal from the start: no boots on the ground, no nation-building, no endless occupation. Period.
Yet these defeatist critics deliberately ignore every single word that has been said, twisting the facts and spreading their pathetic loser agenda of political sabotage and national self-doubt. It’s not ignorance—it’s willful dishonor, a direct slap in the face to every warfighter executing the mission and to the generations of professionals who built and refined these OPLANs across multiple administrations.
You nailed it, CDR SALAMANDER: the plan exists, it is sound, it is being executed on schedule, and it is delivering results. Enough with the noise from the peanut gallery. Support the mission, back our warriors, and let the professionals finish the job. We’ve made our point—now let’s drive it home and come home.
" They have been brutally honest that this is a focused punitive expedition that will take 4-6 weeks if the outcomes are met—and they have been unequivocal from the start: no boots on the ground, no nation-building, no endless occupation. Period."
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Trump wants regime change. That's not blowing stuff up. Talking about how much stuff got blown up today reminds me of the news from Viet Nam about how that war was going. I heard that insanity daily, live. We still lost.
AND we just gave Iran $14 BILLION in fresh money. That'll fund a lot of nukes.
If I told you two months ago that Trump had a plan to leave the Islamic theocracy in place and give it tighter control of the Strait of Hormuz, you'd accuse me of Trump Derangement Syndrome.
So, let's take your assumption at face value. Trump planned to close the straights of Hormuz and trash the world economy. That was his plan.
We are being led by idiots.
There are long-term advantages to that, if we're willing to take advantage.
Tompon, you were all in for a guy whose signature legislation was installing tampon machines in elementary school boys’ rooms.
You’ll recall of course that the Straits were open before the attack. So there’s that.
And one of the other stated reasons was to stop Iran’s (phantom) “imminent attack” on the region, along with its (largely non-existent or buried under rubble) nuclear weapons program. Neither of which were true, but both were floated as both reasons and goals by the president.
I absolutely agree with you that there is plan after plan — I know plenty of military folks; if there’s one thing they do better than anyone else I know, it’s plan.
But to suggest that it’s just a matter of a quick “mission accomplished” and “buh-bye”, like that’ll end or solve things is some crack-ass shit.
Well, Japan too had a plan in 1940. So I guess this post is certainly correct, since both stupid and smart plans are plans. We will soon learn which the US has.
As it stands today, Iran is on the verge of dominating the Middle East through control of Hormuz. They can export oil and also charge tolls on ~20% of the world’s oil production.
Three additional factors:
* Doubly a win for Iran if Houthis threaten to join in and close the Red Sea (ie, attack Yanbu). See RANE’s new report on the possibility of Houthi involvement:
https://worldview.ranenetwork.com/content/article/implications-houthis-joining-iran-war
* General Caine announced today that Iran’s air defenses have been sufficiently degraded to allow overflights of Iran’s interior by B-52s (ie, their previous claims of air superiority were lies).
* Much depends on the relative inventories of US-Israel interceptors and munitions vs. Iran’s missiles.
Soon we will see if the US military’s plans adequately provide for the current situation. Our experiences in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan provide grounds for concern.
Checking in on those 4-6 weeks. How's that going?
Great!
Math wasn't one of your better subjects in school, was it?
And where does Israel fall into this?
An ally that actually can do stuff. Unlike NATO. Did anybody see the interview with the UK Minister of Defense. I had to check to make sure it wasn't a recycled episode of YesMinister.
Can I get a read back on the events that involved the USS Liberty please.
And endless settler-colonial land grabs in the Levant that somehow leads us to 9/11.
No but I am willing to give you a readback on where anti-Semitism leads.
So we’re cool with this “ally” intentionally target our ship and lie about it afterwards? It is extremely unfortunate that Israel has become synonymous with Judaism, because now one cannot criticize the government’s actions without also invoking a claim of anti-semitism. The two can exist in parallel. Respect for the Jewish faith, but disdain for the religiously-condoned land grab that fuels the terror that perpetuates such horrific attacks as 10/7, and backstopped by Iran.
I love how some countries are immune from criticism no matter what they do or how they conduct war and internal security operations based on nationality or ethnicity. Labels get thrown around for some not so much for others.
Well since Israel’s existence has been threatened since 1948, I’d say after 10/7 they have had enough. They were surprised by the attack and I’d surmise they are not going to let it happen again.
And prior to 1948 the sole goal of the Zionist Congress in the late 1800’s was to settle in land that was not theirs. Sure, in the Kingdom of David it was, but that’s not how land ownership works.
Really? Then tell that to the Arabs that came afterward. That's not how land ownership has ever worked, either. Nobody ever owns land...they hold it while they can defend it. If we break down in this country, somebody else will take over here, too. That is the nature of humanity from the first fight between tribes on the savannah over food or water.
So humanitarian of you.
Surprised? An intel org that supposedly is the best on the planet? That listens in on everything and knows where everyone is? And on the 50th anniversary of a very important war they had their troops stand down and left a bunch of festival goers on the border intensely vulnerable? I'd suggest something more sinister but.... I mean on 9-11 don't we recognize that the Anniversary People might be up to no good and intensify our patrols? None of it made sense then and it still doesn't make sense.
Israel will take whatever the USA is willing to hand out to its (Israel's) enemies. As well, Israel will use the opportunity provided by a distracted, if undestroyed, Islamic Republic of Iran to deal with more proximate adversaries. Thus the adventure in Lebanon, and elsewhere, to degrade Iran's regional proxies. All in all, a good solid piece of work. Israel is nothing if not pragmatic to the core. Goes with the territory.
And drags us into these endless wars that Israel can’t figure out a solution. Killing more terrorists, that have children they grow up to become terrorists in the future. When does this end? We can’t kill our way out of this predicament unless we kill everyone involved. And to note, Iran is an enemy we created. Toppling their democracy, supporting the SAVAK, enabling and encouraging Saddam in the 80’s, blowing their jet airliner out of the sky. And despite all of that, Iran offered to help the Bush administration post 9/11. And we wonder why they hate us so much.
Israel and worldwide Jewry, given its uniquely hard-won and dearly paid-for insight into the matter, has been pointing out the solution to dealing with radical Islam since before this small state came into being as a member of the world's nations. To date, most Western countries (including Israel) have been either or both unable and unwilling to deal with the problem. It is an open question whether the ongoing demographic conquest of Europe by Islam will result in victory for them or, given increasingly likely precipitate actions by Western military forces, a completely different set of rules going forward. We shall see.
You can’t be a democratic country if you enforce an apartheid.
When was the Jewish community pointing out the solution to radical Islam? Prior to when the settler-colonist project began and that started pissing off their new neighbors?
Show me historical evidence there was a contentious front against “radical Islam” prior to the formation of Israel?
Progroms have been a historical threat to Jewish communities throughout the world(word comes from Russian/Yiddish, not from Arabic), to include the Arab-dominated MENA region (but every minority has suffered discrimination, regardless of specific ethnicity in MENA. Furthermore, hundreds of thousands of Jews inhibited all corners of the Arab world, prior to the formation of Israel. If there ever was a real existential threat to Jewish communities in MENA existing, wouldn’t these populations have been essentially ethnically cleansed?
If anything, the white power threat from Europe overwhelms anything that Arabs posed, I mean the Holocaust very nearly achieved its tragic goals.
Now Arab states want to repeat it, which I’ll absolutely agree, cannot happen. But I’m not gonna leave Israel (not the Jewish people) without blame.
The part I am missing is what we used to call Force Protection. You need to have structures to protect you from direct and indirect fires if you are in a static position. If there wasn't any plans for bunkers beforehand, it should be on the NCO's at least to try to improvise. I know we have better barriers now but culverts and sandbags is better than a T-shirt. On another subject I posted that in most if not all European armies, Air Defense is an Air Force function, not the Army. It is an abomination that CONUS AFBs don't have Air Defense. They probably don't have bunkers either. Get Serious.
It would seem, since the Gulf states are saying "don't leave without changing the regime" that they should supply ground troops to go into Iran. We can back them up with air power to prevent any serious opposition from gathering to oppose them and take out any obstacles. We can take the Strait to open it for our ships by taking all the islands from Kharg to Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, Qeshm, Larak, and Hormuz...do it in sequence and put Arab troops there to keep them. Then we can stage from them to put two beachheads in place...take the oil fields in the SW and land in the SE to bring in the Arab ground troops. We can hold it with Marines while we transport Arab troops to the mainland. It is unlikely, after any initial fighting, that the beachhead would face any pressure beyond some drones.
I am not saying they are great fighters, but they are bodies. You flood the zone with 100,000 in their joint force and let them take the lead. We provide "aerial artillery" and logistical support. The troops in the SW hold the oil fields, the ones in the SE push up to Zahedan as your chief logistical hub, then send a force NW toward Qom...phase lines from Kerman to Birjand (pause to shut off Bandar Abbas from the North while our forces take the port as a supply point). SW force moves towards Bandar Abbas from Shiraz, sanitizing the coast as they move. Once the coast and port are cleared, Western forces head from Shiraz to Esfahan to Qom. Eastern forces on the right flank from Kerman on Qom, placing blocking forces on secondary roads and/or utilizing them for ILOCs and maneuver of forces.
Now, Iran is going to concentrate their forces somewhere around Qom...giving us targets to attrit from the air. Once we develop this and get the Iranians concentrated around Qom (and attrit them during movement and any concentration of forces), then we invade from Iraq with the Kurds and our SOF directly toward Tehran.
But let the Kurds and Arabs lead the way - make it their war and let the Persian people, and whatever ex-pats (son of the Shah) we can get, rise with the Arab troops to overthrow the regime while we stay in the background. If it is ripe and going to happen, then the citizens will point out any hidden regime elements and jihadists in their midst.
Obviously this is more POLMIL strategic planning and lots more goes into an OPLAN but that was from a few minutes thought and typing here. The military obviously have plans like these, and a lot of variations - we've thought of how we would invade Iran, if necessary. The rub is getting the Arabs involved. They will only commit so many forces because they are scared of their own security at home and possible Islamic terrorists in their own countries acting on Iran's behalf. So, we might have to provide rear security in their countries to make this type of scenario possible. The problem is, when they see our forces in theater, they usually expect us to do the heavy lifting...so, it is a dance.
"I am not saying they are great fighters, but they are bodies. You flood the zone with 100,000 in their joint force and let them take the lead. We provide "aerial artillery" and logistical support. "
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Back in the day we called that "Vietnamization."
So you're saying the Vietnamese shouldn't have been responsible for fighting for their own interests? Or that Arabs shouldn't be a part of fighting for what they want?
You protest our boots on the ground - or our troops going to Vietnam or Iran - and ignore our national security concerns and interests to make such a pig-headed, ignorant comment simply because you are rooting for failure and cheerleading Iran.
" and ignore our national security concerns and interests to make such a pig-headed, ignorant comment simply because you are rooting for failure and cheerleading Iran."
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Critics of the Viet Nam war were accused much the same way. Steady on, okay?
Our national security concerns are not being addressed by this war, as evidenced by the fact that Iran supposedly went from an "obliterated" nuclear program to "two weeks away from a bomb" in nine months -- which tells you something about haw bad our intelligence community must be if they missed that development.
Hamas admitted it attacked innocent Israelis because it felt it was becoming irrelevant -- Israel was about to achieve another diplomatic recognition with another Arab state. Slowly but surely -- and to lasting effect -- Iran and its proxies realized that they (Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah) were being sidelined. THAT is how you get peace in the Middle East. Let the Iranians stew in their own juices.
Instead, we have given Iran a new, younger, more hard-line successor to the old leader, preventing them from having a succession crisis. Attaboy, Donald!
Beg pardon, blasting their military industrial capacity back to spears and rocks is definitely addressing the subject. The Iranian negotiators are the ones who bragged how close they were to nukes, which is what started all this. Yes, you do want failure so you can scream IMPEACHMINTS 47! We've been to this rodeo before. Persian citizens have been stewing in their own juices (blood) for 47 years. New Younger Dude may have a one-week shelf life too. Yogurt has a better prognosis. Our intel community might just suck because it has spent the better part of the last decade spying on US citizens and US presidents than doing its damn job. I'm sure you approved.
"Critics of the Viet Nam war were accused much the same way."
And often correctly so, and the likes of Oliver Stone and Matt Damon are reinforcing that such accusations often were and are true. If I have to deal with another idiot that claims the CIA intercepted Ho Chi Minh's (provably insincere) letters to Truman........
"Our national security concerns are not being addressed by this war, as evidenced by the fact that Iran supposedly went from an "obliterated" nuclear program to "two weeks away from a bomb" in nine months -- which tells you something about haw bad our intelligence community must be if they missed that development."
Non sequitur. No matter what interpretation you use with those data points (that both are false, the former is true and the latter false, the former is false and the latter is true, both are true), they would not cancel out the Iranian Mullahcracy's sustained and indeed genocidal terroristic hostility to us and our allies - including but not limited to Israel - and intent to continue producing Uranium for what is ultimately military ends. And indeed if BOTH intel points are true it points to the Mullahs sparing no expense to rebuild their nuclear weapons program for hostile purpose, something that both major parties in the US and many abroad have at least THEORETICALLY agreed is a red line that they must not be allowed to cross precisely BECAUSE of how a nuclear armed Iranian Mullahcracy is an existential threat to the national security of the US and a host of other countries worth addressing by any means possible, including violent force.
"Hamas admitted it attacked innocent Israelis because it felt it was becoming irrelevant -- Israel was about to achieve another diplomatic recognition with another Arab state. Slowly but surely -- and to lasting effect -- Iran and its proxies realized that they (Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah) were being sidelined. THAT is how you get peace in the Middle East. Let the Iranians stew in their own juices."
Something Something Osama Strong Horse comment here. Now we have far more protracted Israeli-Sunni Arab engagement than before, and a humiliated Iran with a collapsing "Axis of Resistance." Moreover, obtaining nuclear weapons or at least posturing about doing so and threatening to use them is one of the key strategies Iran could use to counter this strategy of "let them stew in their own juices", and while I'm normally loathe to trust Witkoff I am going to assume he is not only more reliable than the apocalyptic nutjobs who have deceit towards infidels woven into their religion but that if he is claiming this openly and not being contradicted by intermediaries we used then he is telling the truth that the Mullahs did threaten about nearly weapons grade uranium.
Meaning that regardless of whether or not the intelligence was good or not, the Iranians claimed they were weeks away from breakthrough capacity and postured about it. That made continued delays untenable.
"Instead, we have given Iran a new, younger, more hard-line successor to the old leader, preventing them from having a succession crisis. Attaboy, Donald!"
I have no idea where you are getting this idea but Iran is already in a succession crisis, as shown by how the IRGC and the Clerical Leadership are openly countermanding one another and making themselves look like divided fools who can't even agree among themselves. Their supposed Supreme Leader is incommunicado and possibly gay, comatose, a cardboard cutout in the metaphorical and/or literal sense, and in a deep credibility deficit while the sharks and other actors swarm. You think that isn't a succession crisis?
Jack Zollinger and Nutria Hunter are asking the right question. The military objectives were defined. The burden-sharing plan was not.
Iran can close the Strait tomorrow. Who pays to reopen it? American taxpayers — again.
That's the structural gap the Gulf Maritime Protection and Burden Sharing Act addresses. The nations whose economies depend on Hormuz have been free-riding for decades. Operation Epic Fury just put that failure on the front page.
Time to change the arrangement permanently — IOHO.
Bill, StrongerNavy.org