2050 is not an "Out Year"
demographics can not be fudged
If someone asks you, “What do you think the world will be like in 2050?”
Do you shrug and just think that is, “Way too far in the future…”
Really?
For anyone 35 or older, you really shouldn’t think that way. Why?
Remember 9/11? Yep, the day that ushered in a new era on that otherwise visually beautiful AM on the September 11th, 2001. Rounding up, that was 23 years ago.
Only 23 years.
The attacks of 9/11 are to 29 April 2024 what we are to 2047, just a few years short of 2050.
Pay attention and take notes people, time moves faster than you think.
Now that I’ve set the table, I want you to take a close look at the below via Virtual Capitalist:
Much faster than you think, 2047 will be here - and Nigeria and Pakistan will have the same population as the USA, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will be a few hundred million souls smaller, and the world’s largest democracy - and by then the world’s nation with the largest number of English speakers - will be near 1.7 billion souls. That is roughly equivalent to her adding the entire population of the USA to her present population.
Demographics are the central argument for real long-term strategic thinking.
From war, to food security, energy requirement, migration pressures, and developing economic systems to support it all - this is what will drive the security environment in the future that is as close to today as we are to 9/11.
This is why AFRICOM matters. The retreat from the Sahel matters.
This is why bringing India closer matters. Helping Indonesia’s development matters.
Europe and North America need to get sober about migration policy. The pressures will only get worse.
We all need to make sure that the unprecedented societal pressures that will come from the pressures of demographic collapse in the PRC remains internalized and does not externalize. Our security policy needs to understand a similar collapse that is coming with out allies South Korea and Japan.
Macro issues are moving in directions no one is all that sure how to respond. There are no good benchmarks out there to reference.
Think smart, be agile, be humble and able to change on a dime.
TImely blogpost. In 6 min the US has 50 babies born. In those same 6 min, China has 144 born, and India has 351. China is the largest English language country. China has more Christians than the US has LEGAL citizens. The top 25% of Chinese intellectuals is great than the population of the US. They have more kids in honors classes than we have total kids!
In 10 years the UK will be a muslim country. Germany will be next. Sweden will follow, as will France , and no one has the will to deport millions of non-assimilated. Japan has finally started to admit foreign workers. I don't know how it is now, but 25 years ago the Japanese had a word for "Koreans that had lived here for hundreds of years", but they were NOT considered Japanese by any stretch.
Assimilation has not worked in any country over the last 3 decades with a large influx of poorly educated, suffering from poor health care, and holding on to a religion that supports slaughtering those that don't share the same belief.
In many countries the cows have done left the barn so why worry about closing the door.
Good article with timely(Ha) reminders. I would add a small caution that demographics do not necessarily equate to actual economic or military power. I suppose that--for instance--Nigeria might someday be a significant world power, but I wouldn't bet on it. Likewise Pakistan.