Sal - By invoking parallels between the current Kaliningrad corridor and the Polish Corridor, you are concentrating on WW2, whereas I think a more appropriate memory jogger might be the run up to WWI. Historically, small countries waving the sabers of more powerful countries and/or alliances has not been a formula for peace. It is far too easy to see Russia pushing troops and armor thru Belarus to attack Lithuania, forcing a response by NATO and an expansion of the current war. And yes, I believe the current U.S. administration will find a way to screw this up worse than it now is, with as much aplomb as the Astro-Hungarian Empire stumbling along in the wake of the Kaiser.
All that said, I can truly see Russia’s point of view in this. Seal the railroad cars to prevent diversion of their contents between points A and B, and lock the pipeline discharge valves as ways of preventing the black market exports. But movement of goods strictly between Russia proper and Kaliningrad is obviously an internal Russian matter. The current embargoes against Russia are enough in their own right to cause serious fault lines, if not outright dissolution, of Russia as things are without kicking the region’s junk yard dog as you stroll past. Be careful what you wish for. The Law of Unintended Consequences is always in force.
It's strange that the goal always seems to be to pick the most pessimistic historical comparison. It strikes me as much more similar to the Soviet attempt to blockade Berlin, except in this case Russia has no right under any treaty to travel the autobahn.
Hmm… the Silk Road came to mind.
Sal - By invoking parallels between the current Kaliningrad corridor and the Polish Corridor, you are concentrating on WW2, whereas I think a more appropriate memory jogger might be the run up to WWI. Historically, small countries waving the sabers of more powerful countries and/or alliances has not been a formula for peace. It is far too easy to see Russia pushing troops and armor thru Belarus to attack Lithuania, forcing a response by NATO and an expansion of the current war. And yes, I believe the current U.S. administration will find a way to screw this up worse than it now is, with as much aplomb as the Astro-Hungarian Empire stumbling along in the wake of the Kaiser.
All that said, I can truly see Russia’s point of view in this. Seal the railroad cars to prevent diversion of their contents between points A and B, and lock the pipeline discharge valves as ways of preventing the black market exports. But movement of goods strictly between Russia proper and Kaliningrad is obviously an internal Russian matter. The current embargoes against Russia are enough in their own right to cause serious fault lines, if not outright dissolution, of Russia as things are without kicking the region’s junk yard dog as you stroll past. Be careful what you wish for. The Law of Unintended Consequences is always in force.
It's strange that the goal always seems to be to pick the most pessimistic historical comparison. It strikes me as much more similar to the Soviet attempt to blockade Berlin, except in this case Russia has no right under any treaty to travel the autobahn.