To paraphrase a former Speaker of the House: "The Chinese are the opposition, the Army is the enemy". Milley's comments make perfect sense if you look at war with China= Navy and Air Force, with the Coast Guard probably doing more than the Army...
Between Milley and CNO Gilday, who thinks that "climate change" is the primary threat the USN faces, all I can do is to stockpile ammunition, canned food, and whiskey. Alas, the United States of America, destroyed by a single treasonous presidential administration.
I think that China stole most of the high-tech from us, only some was sold to them. Academia still welcomes Chinese students with open arms because of the $$ they bring.
Russia was no more going to integrate with the West than China was going to become more Western as they succeeded economically. Pushing NATO next to Russia's border was needless and foolish.
they may not have, but they certainly were not going to become a normalized country getting along with its neighbors. Historically it's always consumed more land not for need of use but for simple addition under the auspices of removing threats by extending boundaries. One could say Ukraine was a threat in Russia's eyes, but Georgia? Moldova? Not arguing your points about them not integrating, but if we didn't extend NATO by a single country, Russia would still with historical fact on the side of it probably have invaded not a couple but more likely 2-3x more of that to bring those pesky "breakaway states with Russian speakers" back under their heel. At some point it will implode just as at some point China takes a massive amount of land from them, probably with little to no fight during a turmoil period.
Mother Russia has always wanted a buffer state/country on her borders, especially on the West as that is where the invaders mostly came from. It would be "interesting" if China tried to take Siberia or Mongolia from Russia. IMO China will if the cost is acceptable. Poland knows that she is the most likely next target, though being part of NATO may save her. What the heck do I know?
It has been more than decades in the making. While reading the article and the comments, I got an ear worm and a flashback to John Adams' opera, Nixon in China (Act 3, The Chairman Dances). Unfortunately, the flashback included the libretto. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jr0i_4jW9w. Just the music would have been fine. Great music for a Long March: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QA19NDIfXaQ
To be fair, this is not a new problem. We have been ignoring strategic threats over happy stories and short term, wishful thinking for quite a while. This administration may be, and I believe is the epitome of, a deluded incompetent; but they're not the first in this line.
Destroyed by zero opposition to this trash in the DC political sphere. Those that wish to win, will run roughshod over those that just want to be left alone.
With concern about Chinese Navy including comments of some that it is now a "blue water" navy it would be helpful to learn just what types of ships and their numbers make it a blue water navy.
Thanks, but as best I can tell their third carrier is not yet operational and perhaps not yet fully constructed. Their first carrier seems old school, which does not necessarily mean ineffective, but also not frightening vs ours?
Looking at the first five categories of ships in your list, do you think they are sufficient for offensive operations vs Taiwan? I ask this because I have not read any place yet how many and what kind of ships China would need for successful invasion of Taiwan.
China has built, and is building commercial RO/RO ferries modified to support amphibious vehicles capable of off-loading via their stern gates directly into the water. No need to beach an old-style LST: the ferries are sized, potentially, to carry up to a battalion each. There may be as many as 16 of these commercial hulls in service now.
Let's remember that in addition to the PLA Marine Corps, a number of PLA Army units are trained and equipped for amphibious operations, and there are a number of SOF, airborne and air assault brigades that can contribute to a Taiwan invasion.
The question that requires a lot of analysis is: given the pace of buildup of their military and civil-military capabilities and capacities, in which year will the Chinese leadership decide that they do have the necessary force levels and associated support to conduct a successful cross-Strait special military operation?
"......do you think they are sufficient for offensive operations vs Taiwan?"
You're asking the wrong question. The question is; How much blood and treasure is China willing to expend to regain something they claim is theirs in the War to Resist US Aggression and Return of Our Province
"Return of Our Province"- don't you really mean force the people of Taiwan who enjoy democracy and far more civil liberties along with economic prosperity back into the Communist Party of China's control?
I suspect had Malta been cut, the US could have eventually made up the loss of oil from the Middle East. It would have taken time though. Had it happened early enough in the siege, perhaps North African oil would have delayed Operation Barbarossa another year opening up a whole can of counterfactuals.
My own personal suspicion is had Barbarossa been delayed until North Africa had taken? We'd have had a bunch more counterfactuals. (Assuming Stalin didn't go West first.)
they frankly would have their carriers not really used in the invasion as much as used to harass/interdict nations coming to help Taiwan. Let's be honest, if they had 3, or 5, and all 5 were sunk, not much would be shed in tears in CCP land, every soldier is an expendable asset. Their surface ships of the 52 and 55 classes especially are what the Navy has to be planning on eliminating, but with only 2/3's at best of a shrinking fleet available at any time, and spread amongst several oceans and seas, it gets worse by the year.
They have and continue to demonstrate they posses the capability to project power. Read the latest navy war college paper on their amphibious capability. The fact they can move tons of rubber dog shit to United States Walmarts and Big box stores proves the concept they are a blue water navy.
ONLY if those ubiquitous Container Ships are configurable as RORO or fast emptying ships. If getting enough containers on the ground is LIKELY then they ARE an issue, though, until they design a fast empty tech it should NOT be a night-sweats thing.
A friend of mine working at Port of LA has some insight into this and HIS point is that this is a simple fix with the usual High Volume Port capabilities, which would tend to induce those night sweats.
I also have a few friends in Port of Long Beach and Port of Norfolk. Guess who built the cranes? Guess who has purchased the Unions? China. China can shut these ports down with 5th column and simple calling in the union stooges. It’s called extortion or elite captured and it’s a critical part of China “peoples war” and “total war” or “Unconditional War”. China also has soft control over Panama Canal and ports in Asia. The CCP control of ports worldwide makes Fat Leonard look junior varsity.
All one needs to understand the Chinese PLA game plan is to read about the Chinese “port first” strategy. It’s how they plan to use bulk container vessels to take a deep water port. They are modeling their strategy on the German WW2 Operation Weserübung.
Austin should never have been picked when it was revealed that he and several other Biden picks were put on boards of new finance houses whose claim to fame was very good political connections and understanding of the DC atmosphere (I'm using my own words). The fact he has kept his job, and I still don't think I've heard the man issue anything that is strategic, is beyond words. We went from one President whom seemed to run too many of his own well picked staff off, to one whom put out a clown car and despite the crowd booing, still has the same clowns getting out of it each day.
"But Xi put the challenge out there, and we'll see where it goes.”
- Perhaps the gravity of that statement combined with the ongoing changes in the Chinese military is simply beyond the staff that he handpicked to inform him.
Milley like this Fd up administration from POTUS through Harris and Austin is a goat rope. We are no longer feared nor revered. We are a laughingstock on the world stage. Hold my beer need to get back to my DEI Training.
“I think there's a lot of rhetoric in China, and a lot of rhetoric elsewhere, to include the United States, that could create the perception that war is right around the corner or we’re on the brink of war with China”
Milley could be talking about parts of the Navy here. The last six months, the last three especially, have seem multiple senior Navy leaders emphasizing to the deckplates, that war really could be right around the corner and we have to be ready yesterday. Give people like Mustin credit - they are pushing the message all the way down to individual units both on the active and reserve side.
Agree, we aren't the defense industrial base - but the uniform side is getting the message.
I'm not defending anything related to BHR. All I'm saying is there's a consistent message coming down, specifically from Mustin but also others. Make of it what you will.
Not meant as a slam on the Admiral. It's gonna' have to come down from on high. Admiral Mustin serves at the pleasure of his seniors as do his peers. The message must be unified and fleet-wide. Otherwise? We'll end up with one area lasting a bit longer as the other portions of the fleet die from attrition and incompetence.
As far the BHR? It was my generation that introduced and passed down the beginnings of the lax DC and seamanship that has brought us here.
DC will listen to Miley, because they already own him.
Richard also retired from his post, and he didn’t care in 2021 to not give honest answers. Like Leahy, he could be recalled, but no Admiral since then has had the close, personal relationship with the Commander in Chief.
While Milley studies his navel, he might consider that MY White rage is directed at him based on probable future geopolitical humiliation by pretty much everybody who is tired of eating the peanuts out of our shit. You can't be a hegemon without infuriating your lessers, and given half a chance they'll string you up. Just ask the Calcutta Mutiny survivors.
Pathetically, we sold off the manufacturing capacity we used to win WW2 - to the PRC. That's what will lead to our destruction.
My gut tells me that Milley is a fool. And that the Army should not have CJCS or ANY theater-level commands for a long, long time. Because Milley isn't just A fool, he's the latest in a very long line of fools.
For awhile Milley, under Army auspices, seemed to be part of a new stock of pretty good leaders that were turning around a service that could not get out of its own way on bad programs and poor planning (now the Navy took it over, though it has competition). What may have been more true though is Milley was surrounded by some brighter people in the Army and left to his own devices, has shown to be no brighter than Fred Flinstone, and a total farce and now a beloved media darling of the Socialist movement.
Milley is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Biden Administration, which itself is morally (and actually) bankrupt, corrupt, and apparently unaware of threats that matter. He's unworthy of our trust. and should be fired. Worse, Austin is complicit and a political puppet along with our own SECNAV who is more worried about climate change than military threats. Time for political correctness in our military has expired.
Richard's talks capability, Miley talks intent. They are both right. Applying an "either-or framework" is overly simplistic. If the Chinese are anything, it is as far from simplistic as it gets.
The "simple" China is replicating is what Ronald Reagan did 40 years ago. Absent a position of military strength that enables China to influence their sphere of interest, China is feckless--an enormous North Korean caricature of huffing and puffing in a world dictated by others, as it has been for the last 80 years.
China doesn't need, nor in my view: seek, a military victory over Taiwan. They'll strangle Taiwan economically and politically into subservience without physically conquer, while maintaining credible force to discourage those who disagree. Move all chip-making back to the US for national security? Great, at whose expense? Taiwan. Successfully bribe locals to obtain monopolistic contracts world-wide for IT-related metals? Sorry Taiwan, none to sell. Continue isolating political by getting Taiwan's few remaining embassies kicked out of host nations: Sorry, Taiwan, we vote with PRC.
Yes, the USN and USAF have to fight and win if called upon, but like Russia even at the height of the Cold War, China will never see Taiwan worth trading for Beijing getting nuked no matter how much "strategic" capacity she has.
Since on a diatribe, We seem blinded in our hominy as the good guys--and rightfully so--that our potential adversaries are keenly aware we actually nuked our last major enemy, and for decades spent a major part of our defense budget preparing to nuke the USSR, and China if foolish enough to join in WWIII. China's government may not be likeable, but neither are they stupid.
I do not think China has to go kinetic, but they may want to because that is how you show the world you are the big boys on the block. They can do it at a time of their choosing. The FOGOs are giving it a couple/three years, I would go a bit later. Why? I think it will take a full five years for the country to completely tear itself apart. Granted, it is happening faster than I thought possible, but it is happening. It has to be by design. We are willingly marching towards an Argentina status. After five years, we will be unable to field a viable military, our economy will be in shambles, and the Constitution will have been so circumvented, it will no longer matter. Remember, the 1st Amendment means no hate speech, and the 2nd Amendment is not absolute. So... Why go kinetic?
BTW, it was really warm today for April, I blame conservatives.
Santa, not counted in their PLAN are their Coast Guard which has a lot of frigates that add greatly to their overall numbers and gross tonnage.
But the checks didn't bounce.
To paraphrase a former Speaker of the House: "The Chinese are the opposition, the Army is the enemy". Milley's comments make perfect sense if you look at war with China= Navy and Air Force, with the Coast Guard probably doing more than the Army...
Between Milley and CNO Gilday, who thinks that "climate change" is the primary threat the USN faces, all I can do is to stockpile ammunition, canned food, and whiskey. Alas, the United States of America, destroyed by a single treasonous presidential administration.
Decades in the making, starting with Bill Clinton as he led our country in the degradation of its mores.
And in the sale of crucial technology to the Chinese...as well as neglecting to move quickly to integrate Russia into the West.
I think that China stole most of the high-tech from us, only some was sold to them. Academia still welcomes Chinese students with open arms because of the $$ they bring.
Russia was no more going to integrate with the West than China was going to become more Western as they succeeded economically. Pushing NATO next to Russia's border was needless and foolish.
they may not have, but they certainly were not going to become a normalized country getting along with its neighbors. Historically it's always consumed more land not for need of use but for simple addition under the auspices of removing threats by extending boundaries. One could say Ukraine was a threat in Russia's eyes, but Georgia? Moldova? Not arguing your points about them not integrating, but if we didn't extend NATO by a single country, Russia would still with historical fact on the side of it probably have invaded not a couple but more likely 2-3x more of that to bring those pesky "breakaway states with Russian speakers" back under their heel. At some point it will implode just as at some point China takes a massive amount of land from them, probably with little to no fight during a turmoil period.
Mother Russia has always wanted a buffer state/country on her borders, especially on the West as that is where the invaders mostly came from. It would be "interesting" if China tried to take Siberia or Mongolia from Russia. IMO China will if the cost is acceptable. Poland knows that she is the most likely next target, though being part of NATO may save her. What the heck do I know?
It has been more than decades in the making. While reading the article and the comments, I got an ear worm and a flashback to John Adams' opera, Nixon in China (Act 3, The Chairman Dances). Unfortunately, the flashback included the libretto. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5jr0i_4jW9w. Just the music would have been fine. Great music for a Long March: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QA19NDIfXaQ
To be fair, this is not a new problem. We have been ignoring strategic threats over happy stories and short term, wishful thinking for quite a while. This administration may be, and I believe is the epitome of, a deluded incompetent; but they're not the first in this line.
True. Though Biden is the first openly corrupt and treasonous President and First Family in my lifetime.
He's the first one put into office by an establishment that is finally powerful enough to not care what you think
That establishment doesn't care what any citizen thinks as long as they vote "correctly".
That was true for a while. Now they don't even need that; they cast whatever ballots they need for a desired result on our behalf
Sadly, an excellent and valid point.
I think it is unreasonably optimistic to call the people running our country "incompetent."
Destroyed by zero opposition to this trash in the DC political sphere. Those that wish to win, will run roughshod over those that just want to be left alone.
With concern about Chinese Navy including comments of some that it is now a "blue water" navy it would be helpful to learn just what types of ships and their numbers make it a blue water navy.
See .... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Navy
Size:
-- 300,000 active personnel
-- 535+ ships
-- 600+ aircraft
Fleet Composition:
-- 3 aircraft carriers
-- 3 landing helicopter docks
-- 8 amphibious transport docks
-- 32 landing ship tanks
-- 33 landing ship mediums
-- 51 destroyers
-- 49 frigates
-- 70 corvettes
-- 109 missile boats
-- 26 submarine chasers
-- 17+ gunboats
-- 36 mine countermeasure vessels
-- 79 submarines
-- 19 replenishment ships
-- 232 auxiliaries
Thanks, but as best I can tell their third carrier is not yet operational and perhaps not yet fully constructed. Their first carrier seems old school, which does not necessarily mean ineffective, but also not frightening vs ours?
Looking at the first five categories of ships in your list, do you think they are sufficient for offensive operations vs Taiwan? I ask this because I have not read any place yet how many and what kind of ships China would need for successful invasion of Taiwan.
You need to catch up.
If you want some in-depth info regarding the PLAN and Joint Logistics Support Force check the following link: https://usnwc.edu/Research-and-Wargaming/Research-Centers/China-Maritime-Studies-Institute
China has built, and is building commercial RO/RO ferries modified to support amphibious vehicles capable of off-loading via their stern gates directly into the water. No need to beach an old-style LST: the ferries are sized, potentially, to carry up to a battalion each. There may be as many as 16 of these commercial hulls in service now.
Let's remember that in addition to the PLA Marine Corps, a number of PLA Army units are trained and equipped for amphibious operations, and there are a number of SOF, airborne and air assault brigades that can contribute to a Taiwan invasion.
The question that requires a lot of analysis is: given the pace of buildup of their military and civil-military capabilities and capacities, in which year will the Chinese leadership decide that they do have the necessary force levels and associated support to conduct a successful cross-Strait special military operation?
They watched "Dunkirk" too!
Toshi Yoshihara has the answers to what you seek.
"......do you think they are sufficient for offensive operations vs Taiwan?"
You're asking the wrong question. The question is; How much blood and treasure is China willing to expend to regain something they claim is theirs in the War to Resist US Aggression and Return of Our Province
US aggression in defending a nation from attack?
"Return of Our Province"- don't you really mean force the people of Taiwan who enjoy democracy and far more civil liberties along with economic prosperity back into the Communist Party of China's control?
The official CCP name for the Korean War is;
“The War to Resist America and Aid Korea." - I was just riffing off that.
The CCP views the situation a bit differently. Their view matters.
China has Churchill's "unsinkable aircraft carriers."
Not to disparage the vaunted Mr. Churchill.......had the Germans had the ability to cut off Malta like Nimitz Island hopped?
I suspect had Malta been cut, the US could have eventually made up the loss of oil from the Middle East. It would have taken time though. Had it happened early enough in the siege, perhaps North African oil would have delayed Operation Barbarossa another year opening up a whole can of counterfactuals.
My own personal suspicion is had Barbarossa been delayed until North Africa had taken? We'd have had a bunch more counterfactuals. (Assuming Stalin didn't go West first.)
they frankly would have their carriers not really used in the invasion as much as used to harass/interdict nations coming to help Taiwan. Let's be honest, if they had 3, or 5, and all 5 were sunk, not much would be shed in tears in CCP land, every soldier is an expendable asset. Their surface ships of the 52 and 55 classes especially are what the Navy has to be planning on eliminating, but with only 2/3's at best of a shrinking fleet available at any time, and spread amongst several oceans and seas, it gets worse by the year.
They have and continue to demonstrate they posses the capability to project power. Read the latest navy war college paper on their amphibious capability. The fact they can move tons of rubber dog shit to United States Walmarts and Big box stores proves the concept they are a blue water navy.
ONLY if those ubiquitous Container Ships are configurable as RORO or fast emptying ships. If getting enough containers on the ground is LIKELY then they ARE an issue, though, until they design a fast empty tech it should NOT be a night-sweats thing.
A friend of mine working at Port of LA has some insight into this and HIS point is that this is a simple fix with the usual High Volume Port capabilities, which would tend to induce those night sweats.
Night Driver
I also have a few friends in Port of Long Beach and Port of Norfolk. Guess who built the cranes? Guess who has purchased the Unions? China. China can shut these ports down with 5th column and simple calling in the union stooges. It’s called extortion or elite captured and it’s a critical part of China “peoples war” and “total war” or “Unconditional War”. China also has soft control over Panama Canal and ports in Asia. The CCP control of ports worldwide makes Fat Leonard look junior varsity.
All one needs to understand the Chinese PLA game plan is to read about the Chinese “port first” strategy. It’s how they plan to use bulk container vessels to take a deep water port. They are modeling their strategy on the German WW2 Operation Weserübung.
Richard presents the clearest case. Here are articles in support of Richard.
1. http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2017/03/09/spending_on_defensehow_much_is_enough_110937.html
2. What is the Appropriate Manpower Requirement of the U.S. Military? | RealClearDefense
3. China: Competitor or Adversary? | RealClearDefense
4. National Military Strategy Development—Time for a Revolutionary Approach | RealClearDefense
5. http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2018/5/31/time-is-now-to-advance-us-india-defense-cooperation
6. https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/07/12/increasing_economic_power_as_an_instrument_of_national_power_113598.html.
7. Ignorance of China Is Not Bliss | RealClearDefense
8. https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2020/06/11/the_middle_kingdom_rises_115372.html
9. https://www.realcleardefense.com/2020/08/05/cno_mandate__a_design_for_maintaining_maritime_superiority_314799.html
10. https://www.ausn.org/post/the-price-of-u-s-navy-combat-supremacy.
11. The Looming Taiwan Challenge For The US, Japan And The West - CD Media (creativedestructionmedia.com)
12. https://creativedestructionmedia.com/analysis/2022/01/19/a-new-china-strategy/ A New China Strategy | RealClearDefense
13. Danger Close: People’s Republic Of China - Armed Forces Press
Thanks. You've given me a lot to read as time permits.
Milley and Austin are absolute buffoons. I worked with Austin for a brief period. Total political pawn.
His response when asked about airlift in the first days of Kabul was both telling and frightening.
His smirk and response when asked about drag queen story hour on base was also telling.
Hence his "Shaka Zulu" nickname.
Austin should never have been picked when it was revealed that he and several other Biden picks were put on boards of new finance houses whose claim to fame was very good political connections and understanding of the DC atmosphere (I'm using my own words). The fact he has kept his job, and I still don't think I've heard the man issue anything that is strategic, is beyond words. We went from one President whom seemed to run too many of his own well picked staff off, to one whom put out a clown car and despite the crowd booing, still has the same clowns getting out of it each day.
"But Xi put the challenge out there, and we'll see where it goes.”
- Perhaps the gravity of that statement combined with the ongoing changes in the Chinese military is simply beyond the staff that he handpicked to inform him.
Ducks pick ducks.
Milley like this Fd up administration from POTUS through Harris and Austin is a goat rope. We are no longer feared nor revered. We are a laughingstock on the world stage. Hold my beer need to get back to my DEI Training.
“I think there's a lot of rhetoric in China, and a lot of rhetoric elsewhere, to include the United States, that could create the perception that war is right around the corner or we’re on the brink of war with China”
Milley could be talking about parts of the Navy here. The last six months, the last three especially, have seem multiple senior Navy leaders emphasizing to the deckplates, that war really could be right around the corner and we have to be ready yesterday. Give people like Mustin credit - they are pushing the message all the way down to individual units both on the active and reserve side.
Agree, we aren't the defense industrial base - but the uniform side is getting the message.
".......really could be right around the corner and we have to be ready yesterday."
Failure to do so cost us the BHR. Although it's all the same in the end? It ain't just about getting the warshot on the target.
I'm not defending anything related to BHR. All I'm saying is there's a consistent message coming down, specifically from Mustin but also others. Make of it what you will.
Not meant as a slam on the Admiral. It's gonna' have to come down from on high. Admiral Mustin serves at the pleasure of his seniors as do his peers. The message must be unified and fleet-wide. Otherwise? We'll end up with one area lasting a bit longer as the other portions of the fleet die from attrition and incompetence.
As far the BHR? It was my generation that introduced and passed down the beginnings of the lax DC and seamanship that has brought us here.
Thoroughly Modern Milley cannot hang up his uniform fast enough.
I have been ashamed to be a soldier for his entire tenure, along with Secretary Austin.
DC will listen to Miley, because they already own him.
Richard also retired from his post, and he didn’t care in 2021 to not give honest answers. Like Leahy, he could be recalled, but no Admiral since then has had the close, personal relationship with the Commander in Chief.
Might be _slightly_ more accurate to say that Milley and DC have the same set of owners, but I agree with you in general.
Concur
While Milley studies his navel, he might consider that MY White rage is directed at him based on probable future geopolitical humiliation by pretty much everybody who is tired of eating the peanuts out of our shit. You can't be a hegemon without infuriating your lessers, and given half a chance they'll string you up. Just ask the Calcutta Mutiny survivors.
Pathetically, we sold off the manufacturing capacity we used to win WW2 - to the PRC. That's what will lead to our destruction.
Well, a lot of that capacity got retired 1975-1982. Rebuilding it back will take some time, and a lot of money..
My gut tells me that Milley is a fool. And that the Army should not have CJCS or ANY theater-level commands for a long, long time. Because Milley isn't just A fool, he's the latest in a very long line of fools.
For awhile Milley, under Army auspices, seemed to be part of a new stock of pretty good leaders that were turning around a service that could not get out of its own way on bad programs and poor planning (now the Navy took it over, though it has competition). What may have been more true though is Milley was surrounded by some brighter people in the Army and left to his own devices, has shown to be no brighter than Fred Flinstone, and a total farce and now a beloved media darling of the Socialist movement.
PS Apologies to the Flinstone family.
Milley is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Biden Administration, which itself is morally (and actually) bankrupt, corrupt, and apparently unaware of threats that matter. He's unworthy of our trust. and should be fired. Worse, Austin is complicit and a political puppet along with our own SECNAV who is more worried about climate change than military threats. Time for political correctness in our military has expired.
Richard's talks capability, Miley talks intent. They are both right. Applying an "either-or framework" is overly simplistic. If the Chinese are anything, it is as far from simplistic as it gets.
The "simple" China is replicating is what Ronald Reagan did 40 years ago. Absent a position of military strength that enables China to influence their sphere of interest, China is feckless--an enormous North Korean caricature of huffing and puffing in a world dictated by others, as it has been for the last 80 years.
China doesn't need, nor in my view: seek, a military victory over Taiwan. They'll strangle Taiwan economically and politically into subservience without physically conquer, while maintaining credible force to discourage those who disagree. Move all chip-making back to the US for national security? Great, at whose expense? Taiwan. Successfully bribe locals to obtain monopolistic contracts world-wide for IT-related metals? Sorry Taiwan, none to sell. Continue isolating political by getting Taiwan's few remaining embassies kicked out of host nations: Sorry, Taiwan, we vote with PRC.
Yes, the USN and USAF have to fight and win if called upon, but like Russia even at the height of the Cold War, China will never see Taiwan worth trading for Beijing getting nuked no matter how much "strategic" capacity she has.
Since on a diatribe, We seem blinded in our hominy as the good guys--and rightfully so--that our potential adversaries are keenly aware we actually nuked our last major enemy, and for decades spent a major part of our defense budget preparing to nuke the USSR, and China if foolish enough to join in WWIII. China's government may not be likeable, but neither are they stupid.
Mike, I encourage you to spend some time with Sal's work on the PLAN and PLAAF.
He covers a LOT of this.
Equating China and the PLA/N/AF as compared to Nor Korea brings into question ones vision as to near future engagements.
The 2 are at minimum 180 degrees apart.
Night Driver
I do not think China has to go kinetic, but they may want to because that is how you show the world you are the big boys on the block. They can do it at a time of their choosing. The FOGOs are giving it a couple/three years, I would go a bit later. Why? I think it will take a full five years for the country to completely tear itself apart. Granted, it is happening faster than I thought possible, but it is happening. It has to be by design. We are willingly marching towards an Argentina status. After five years, we will be unable to field a viable military, our economy will be in shambles, and the Constitution will have been so circumvented, it will no longer matter. Remember, the 1st Amendment means no hate speech, and the 2nd Amendment is not absolute. So... Why go kinetic?
BTW, it was really warm today for April, I blame conservatives.