America: Bad Empire or Poor Friend?

it is all connected

Seeing the testimony of retired Generals Milley and McKenzie last month remains like a pebble in my shoe that I figure if I write about it a bit might bother me less as Spring moves forward.

Though he has yet to make the full effort, in body language and his statement, I believe that General McKenzie is starting to see his part in the greatest national disgrace to our nation since the fall of Saigon.

Yes, he was just following orders – and that is not his responsibility. However, being a willing participant in this disgrace is his to wear the regret, just as almost everyone who spent a few decades holds a bit of regret in carrying out legal orders. Goodness knows I have a few, but they are minor compared to what others carry.

Milley, however, is a different story. Just watch his testimony. As I said SEPCOR, if I never hear from that man again, it will be too soon.

As 4-star Generals, both men had an opportunity to make a statement on behalf of those who served, were injured, or were killed in the 20-years we had boots on the ground in Afghanistan. Once the last aircraft left Kabul and the mission was largely complete, someone – anyone – of significance should have resigned. No speech needed to be made. None required. The action itself would have spoken for all of those whose voices cannot be heard either due to their lower positions or simply their inability.

I understand that well-meaning people can agree in good faith with the above paragraph, and I am fine with that. However, I do not accept that this obscene disgrace should just be a, “ride out to retirement date or PCS” moment.

No. With great rank comes great responsibility. To demand character and honor from subordinates, the same must be demonstrated from the highest rank.

How bad was it?

As I outlined in my August 17^th, 2021 post;

- Colonel General Boris Gromov, Red Army and with him the Soviet Union leaves Afghanistan over the Friendship Bridge: 15 FEB 89. The Soviets were in Afghanistan 9-years and 2-months.

- The President of Afghanistan Najibullah ousted from power & hides in UN compound after fall of Kabul: 15 APR 92

3 years and 2 months; 38 months. That is how long the Soviet trained Afghan Army and government lasted after the withdraw of the Red Army. (NB: The Soviet Union died on 26DEC91, a little under three years after the Friendship Bridge crossing. Najibullah was dragged out of his UN safe-haven - as one does - in SEP of 1996 and hung from a lamp post in Kabul, a bit over four years after the fall of Kabul. Use those benchmarks as you see fit.)

- General Scott Miller, US Army lands in DC: 14JUL21. That would be 19-years and 11-months, but as we all know, American forces are still in Afghanistan at the pleasure of the Taliban trying to hold down half of the Kabul airport so we can get our people out.

- President Ghani abandons Kabul: 15AUG21.

1-month. There is your benchmark. The Soviets were 38-times more successful in Afghanistan than we were, and they did it in half the time.

How about the Vietnam War?

The last us combat forces left South Vietnam March 29, 1973.

Saigon fell on April 30, 1975, after the US Congress refused to fund additional weapons for the South Vietnamese. That’s 25 months.

Let’s shift the timeframe to the present day.

The Russians further invaded Ukraine a little over 25 months ago.

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the USA and the West in general have been working to help Ukraine become a better nation, especially after 2014. That is something I have been open about from day-1, as the record on the OG Blog is for all to see.

Before the expansion of the conflict in February 2022, everyone agreed that - independent of supporting the Ukrainian desire to keep themselves free of the Russian yoke - the Russians were one of our top-2 most serious national security threats.

The Ukrainians are doing what I would hope Americans would do, bleed themselves white in a struggle to maintain national sovereignty. For over two years we have been helping them in their fight, and at a relatively small cost considering that they are helping destroy what is left of the Soviet weapons that Russia relies on. Once that inventory is depleted, Russia neither has the industrial capacity nor wealth to replace them in number.

With each passing month, Ukraine continues in the fight, the Russians become less of a military threat to everyone else.

That is the cold-eyed view of the conflict. The human part is simply supporting the good fight.

Yes, Europe’s larger powers could have done more faster … but we are still responsible for our own actions.

As this is an election year, everything is clogged up, and the people we need to be thinking long-term cannot see past November. From both a national security and I would offer moral perspective, I do not understand any of the reasons people have for not supporting Ukraine in their fight.

Russia under her present leadership is not a nation of good intent. There is no positive outcome from her winning in Ukraine. There is nothing but benefit for her being humbled in Ukraine. We can do that without a single American soldier.

Only two positions to the contrary do I think are viable and pass my smell test, but they both fail:

1. We need to focus on the threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC): Yes, we do - but we can do two things at once, and the war in our interest going on right now is a land war in Ukraine with our European allies being able to help a lot. Any possible conflict in the Western Pacific will be a maritime and aerospace war with a different set of allies who can help out. Also, if we abandon Ukraine like we seem to have a habit of doing with others, how does that encourage partnership with us in the Pacific against the PRC?

2. Defeat in Ukraine could cause a collapse of the Russian state & chaos of unknown breadth and effect from nukes to border changes: Yes, that “could” happen, and may happen … but the worst-case scenario is not the most likely. That is also a hypothetical problem. A Russian victory in Ukraine is a more in-your-face problem.

Look back at the end of point 1 above. Ponder that along with a rather interesting poll Colin Koh posted over on X;

Yes, all caveats about polls apply here, but what do you see?

Only Vietnam, The Philippines, and Singapore have increased their already 50%+ support. Surprisingly, Burma (I refuse to call it Myanmar), is over 50%, but slightly decreasing.

Brunei, Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia were in the mid-40s, but have collapsed. Some are claiming that has been made worse because we supported Israel after the invasion from Gaza, but Laos is not a Muslim nation.

The drop of almost 10-points from Thailand is just sad to see, but understandable.

What are we doing in a macro sense to build our credibility as an ally and friend in the last few years?

Specifically, what have we done in the Pacific to effectively counter PRC courting of those nations they are not directly threatening?

This is varsity football, but we’re performing like the JV team.

…and yes, it is all connected.