It appears “we” cannot do even “one-thing-at-once” effectively at this time. How the situation resolves will look different in the rear view mirror if it manages not crack in the meantime.
The Russkies do do a good military parade, and I'm certain they took less of a morale hit, than my Army at their loss. Both Milley and McKenzie should have tendered their resignations. Some combination of feckless leadership, incompetence, and lies should consign them to the dustbin of history. Alas
nit, I would write it as:
Saigon fell on April 30, 1975, after the US Congress refused to honor our promises (direct as well as covered in the Accord) to fund replacement weapons for the South Vietnamese.
The biggest miscreants were McGovern A WW2 veteran of teh 8th Air Force), Edmund Kennedy (adulterers, veteran of Chappaquiddick and any house of booze you could name), And Mansfield another worthless moron that didn't care about the strategic or geopolitical position of the US post- war. All of them, and the leftists that wanted the commies to win, have blood on their hands and are worth no honors whatsoever.
Since Hackworth has been dead for years, that won't happen, and I could not care less. Hackworth was not always right, but he was right about Vietnam, because they had no intention of winning.
You are so right. “It was the duty and responsibility of his military advisors to warn him of the likely consequences of his actions, to recommend alternatives, and, as Napoleon put it, to tender their resignations rather than be the instrument of their army’s downfall.” Harry Summers, “On Strategy”, about the Viet Nam war. Lesson not learned.
We haven't been serious about actually WINNING a war since the 1940s. Everything since then has been about containment and/or placating "allies" at the time. We don't have the political gumption to prosecute all out war anymore, and it shows in how we've turned our military forces and foreign affairs people into unpopular and misguided propaganda departments. And it doesn't help that we keep abandoning our allies and our own people behind the lines, ever more visibly. If given a vision that most everyone can support, I think we could turn our production line situation around in short order. Unfortunately we don't have the political leadership for that. And our military leadership, while always political in nature, seems to have become more so the last few decades.
Well put. Both Vietnam and Afghanistan were self inflicted disasters because of domestic politics. Not actual analysis of foreign affairs, nor diplomatic necessity , not even because of national self interest. Domestic politics. A truly professional military officer would have resigned as you so well put it. I am not sure that what I am seeing of changes to the culture at West Point and Annapolis is going to produce military leaders who might do just that. Of course that may be the idea.
You seem to be adopting the tactics of the left by personally insulting anyone who differs with you. I think Ukraine is a lost cause and no amount of money will save it.
You are part of the left, right along with teh rest of teh MAGAt faction. If the heat is too much, then shut down your presence in social media, because it is going to get worse the more stupid your lot gets.
One thing you haven't done is think things out, no matter what you claim.
Agree that both ends of the political spectrum have developed some bat shit crazies---who, unfortunately have outsized influence on their political parties.
I hate to see Phib's front porch infiltrated by those idiots. I have to hold myself back, rather than give the entirety of my main battery fire. But I am tempted. So very tempted.
The problem is, I've been leaning more and more isolationism. Largely, because I do not think we can fund running all around the world like we do, the way that we do. Internally, our country is falling apart (mostly in the cities), but as the economy falls apart, and the government willfully combats the Constitution (DoJ went to court to fight to destroy the First Amendment, and the ATF will call anything an automatic just to make the populace all felons. The government fails at everything geopolitically. We are feeding and funding Hamas for goodness sake!
Shawn Ryan had a CIA targeter on his show and she was talking about Afghanistan is a bigger terrorist training ground than they were before. For twenty years, we reconstituted the Taliban. WTF are we actually doing geopolitically and why would anybody EVER ally themselves with the US? It has been a disaster since the 60s.
MAGAts are being very stupid. We did not start Ukraine, Putin did, and aiding Ukraine in defending herself is the right thing to do. Refusing, or even abandoning Ukraine, will destroy the position of the US, doing far more damage than the conduct in Vietnam or the AFG.
I am not all that certain about Russia’s lack of industrial capacity or wealth especially when they have the support of China, NK, Iran and some of the former Soviet republics.
I also suspect our support of Ukraine has been far greater than Pentagon accounting would admit. Let’s rebuild the Key Bridge before we send Ukraine another cent.
While Putin fights his useless war, His ally in Peking is eyeing large swaths of the far east, and Chinese are colonizing it. Putin is aware of this, but he is over a very large barrel, and will pay the price for his stupidity.
I would wonder why people are not committing seppuku over this, but seppuku restores the honor you have lost, and you cannot restore what you never possessed.
The idea that Russian combat power is on the decline in meaningful terms is a conclusion, CDR Sal, that isn't in evidence. Is it less than D-0? Yes. Does that fact mean that Russia is meaningfully less committed to some form of war termination on terms generally favorable to it? I don't think so. Also, Ukrainian meta-military factors are not uniformly positive, either.
The problem is that while your strategic summation is generally correct, its also somewhat inadequate.
Of course no Western nation benefits from a Russian "victory," but the closest thing we have to a formulation of Ukrainian victory is the return of Ukraine to 1954 Soviet Presidium defined boundaries, that frankly likely isn't going to happen, either. The best chances for that were burned up in the Spring Offensive. Western resources aren't infinite, and rebuilding them are time lines that aren't strategically advantageous.
So, at some point we need to come up with what reasonable Ukrainian victory conditions look like. That needs to be generated from real ends-ways-means analysis, and not some magic appeal to international law, customary or otherwise. Lots of the pro-Ukrainian analysis seems at some point to circle back to the innate morality of the Ukrainian cause. At this point, that's overcome by events. This is now a firepower contest, as dictated by the ability of both the contestants to man-train-equip forces in the field, and potentially deliver some decisive blow to the opponent. I don't see that occurring in the near future with the facts as they are.
No matter what reasonable Ukrainian victory conditions "we" come up with, "we" have no means of making them happen. Russia will set the terms, "we" will suffer them.
After the last twenty some years, appeals to international law from the US would be absurd.
If a Russian victory leads to the collapse of the WEFers and their EU puppets, I'd count that as a win for Europe.
It would be a loss for everyone in teh west, including those that pooh pooh Ukraine. As long as a Ukraine has been supplied with what they need, Ukraine holds its own, and even takes back land. The real question about victory for Ukraine is what the west does in support. If Ukraine is abandoned, the loss will be far more devastating and dangerous for teh US than the loss in Vietnam.
The youngest they are drafting now is 25 (down from 27), and that according to legislation signed just yesterday. They have not drawn upon large segments of their population.
"we need to come up with what reasonable Ukrainian victory conditions look like."
Good heavens! Why break with tradition? Nebulous generalities are all our "expert" leaders know. Process is more important than actual product. We just keep fighting and everything will turn out good, because we are the good guys.
And it got Mac relieved. They sent a man to do a boys job. But, that's OK it Korea Clark and Ridgeway, two very poor choices. The supply situation was getting better when Mac left, but the casualties soared under Ridgeway and Clark. Clark was simply a mediocrity as was his good friend Eisenhower, who probably prolonged the war by 4-6 months at least.
Viet Nam was led largely from DC by the likes of Sec Def. McNamara and his team of quants who apparently were unaware or ignored the extensive conversations between JFK and MacArthur as regards to engaging in a land war in IndoChina. I would say that our resolve there was contaminated by machinations of hacks in DC.
Actually, the war inside S. Vietnam was run from Saigon (Westmorland). I can only speak for myself when I say my resolve was contaminated more by the military hacks in Saigon, An Khe, etc. Nothing I have learned since has changed my mind. I expect political hacks to be ignorant of war and military history. Graduates of staff schools and war colleges, not so much.
The people pushing that perversion think the US is the indispensable country. If they keep it up, they will learn the hard way that the us can find itself disposable.
I found and read everything I could about Hector Bywater in the 1970s. You seem to be as prescient about what we are now facing as he was in the 1920-40 era. I hope that you are better received than he was then.
It appears “we” cannot do even “one-thing-at-once” effectively at this time. How the situation resolves will look different in the rear view mirror if it manages not crack in the meantime.
Moving and well said - thank you!
Now do Van Herck and Guillot, both of whom allowed their battlespace to be overrun.
The Russkies do do a good military parade, and I'm certain they took less of a morale hit, than my Army at their loss. Both Milley and McKenzie should have tendered their resignations. Some combination of feckless leadership, incompetence, and lies should consign them to the dustbin of history. Alas
nit, I would write it as:
Saigon fell on April 30, 1975, after the US Congress refused to honor our promises (direct as well as covered in the Accord) to fund replacement weapons for the South Vietnamese.
How fast did it happen after Congress pulled the plug? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYW2312NObs
One of the Democrats leading the charge to abandon South Vietnam was freshman Senator Joe Biden. Treachery has been his MO his entire life.
The biggest miscreants were McGovern A WW2 veteran of teh 8th Air Force), Edmund Kennedy (adulterers, veteran of Chappaquiddick and any house of booze you could name), And Mansfield another worthless moron that didn't care about the strategic or geopolitical position of the US post- war. All of them, and the leftists that wanted the commies to win, have blood on their hands and are worth no honors whatsoever.
While sorta true, the real people with blood on their hands are those who refused to win. Ask Hackworth.
Since Hackworth has been dead for years, that won't happen, and I could not care less. Hackworth was not always right, but he was right about Vietnam, because they had no intention of winning.
That was in is wild and woolly freshman days. https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v10/d232
"I will vote for any amount for getting the Americans out. I don’t want it mixed with getting the Vietnamese out."
Back when he "truly" cared about leaving U.S. citizens behind in a foreign country. Now you are on your own bub.
Is your email addy the same as it was when we were on Lex's blog?
Yes.
"....what have we done in the Pacific to effectively counter PRC courting of those nations they are not directly threatening?..."
uhmmm........crickets.....
We meet with the Chinese, we get an airport. We meet with the Americans, we get a lecture.
ps: and a Gay Pride flag,,,
Amen.
You are so right. “It was the duty and responsibility of his military advisors to warn him of the likely consequences of his actions, to recommend alternatives, and, as Napoleon put it, to tender their resignations rather than be the instrument of their army’s downfall.” Harry Summers, “On Strategy”, about the Viet Nam war. Lesson not learned.
We haven't been serious about actually WINNING a war since the 1940s. Everything since then has been about containment and/or placating "allies" at the time. We don't have the political gumption to prosecute all out war anymore, and it shows in how we've turned our military forces and foreign affairs people into unpopular and misguided propaganda departments. And it doesn't help that we keep abandoning our allies and our own people behind the lines, ever more visibly. If given a vision that most everyone can support, I think we could turn our production line situation around in short order. Unfortunately we don't have the political leadership for that. And our military leadership, while always political in nature, seems to have become more so the last few decades.
Well put. Both Vietnam and Afghanistan were self inflicted disasters because of domestic politics. Not actual analysis of foreign affairs, nor diplomatic necessity , not even because of national self interest. Domestic politics. A truly professional military officer would have resigned as you so well put it. I am not sure that what I am seeing of changes to the culture at West Point and Annapolis is going to produce military leaders who might do just that. Of course that may be the idea.
Alas, the MAGAt right has become as bad as the left on geopolitics.
You seem to be adopting the tactics of the left by personally insulting anyone who differs with you. I think Ukraine is a lost cause and no amount of money will save it.
You are part of the left, right along with teh rest of teh MAGAt faction. If the heat is too much, then shut down your presence in social media, because it is going to get worse the more stupid your lot gets.
One thing you haven't done is think things out, no matter what you claim.
Agree that both ends of the political spectrum have developed some bat shit crazies---who, unfortunately have outsized influence on their political parties.
I hate to see Phib's front porch infiltrated by those idiots. I have to hold myself back, rather than give the entirety of my main battery fire. But I am tempted. So very tempted.
Yep. "Never get in a pissing contest with a skunk". :-)
sometimes you have to, alas. Just got a "response" from another pro-Putin moron here on the front porch.
The problem is, I've been leaning more and more isolationism. Largely, because I do not think we can fund running all around the world like we do, the way that we do. Internally, our country is falling apart (mostly in the cities), but as the economy falls apart, and the government willfully combats the Constitution (DoJ went to court to fight to destroy the First Amendment, and the ATF will call anything an automatic just to make the populace all felons. The government fails at everything geopolitically. We are feeding and funding Hamas for goodness sake!
Shawn Ryan had a CIA targeter on his show and she was talking about Afghanistan is a bigger terrorist training ground than they were before. For twenty years, we reconstituted the Taliban. WTF are we actually doing geopolitically and why would anybody EVER ally themselves with the US? It has been a disaster since the 60s.
Not supporting stupid and unnecessary wars started by neocons is not an issue of MAGA. It’s the anti-MAGA doing that stupid shit.
MAGAts are being very stupid. We did not start Ukraine, Putin did, and aiding Ukraine in defending herself is the right thing to do. Refusing, or even abandoning Ukraine, will destroy the position of the US, doing far more damage than the conduct in Vietnam or the AFG.
I am not all that certain about Russia’s lack of industrial capacity or wealth especially when they have the support of China, NK, Iran and some of the former Soviet republics.
I also suspect our support of Ukraine has been far greater than Pentagon accounting would admit. Let’s rebuild the Key Bridge before we send Ukraine another cent.
While Putin fights his useless war, His ally in Peking is eyeing large swaths of the far east, and Chinese are colonizing it. Putin is aware of this, but he is over a very large barrel, and will pay the price for his stupidity.
He seems to think the war is a necessity.
And, like Hitler, Putin is a fool.
The last US ground combat unit, 3/21 Infantry, left Vietnam 11 Aug 72, not in 1973. They had been guarding the US airbase at Da Nang. See —
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/last-u-s-ground-combat-unit-departs-south-vietnam
No American Army or Marine units were operating in the field in Vietnam in 1973.
Take it up with the author at the link.
Depends on your definition of "combat forces".
Funny how definitions get a bit less defined, isn't it?
I would wonder why people are not committing seppuku over this, but seppuku restores the honor you have lost, and you cannot restore what you never possessed.
Post FOGO board member gigs. There is no honor.
The idea that Russian combat power is on the decline in meaningful terms is a conclusion, CDR Sal, that isn't in evidence. Is it less than D-0? Yes. Does that fact mean that Russia is meaningfully less committed to some form of war termination on terms generally favorable to it? I don't think so. Also, Ukrainian meta-military factors are not uniformly positive, either.
The problem is that while your strategic summation is generally correct, its also somewhat inadequate.
Of course no Western nation benefits from a Russian "victory," but the closest thing we have to a formulation of Ukrainian victory is the return of Ukraine to 1954 Soviet Presidium defined boundaries, that frankly likely isn't going to happen, either. The best chances for that were burned up in the Spring Offensive. Western resources aren't infinite, and rebuilding them are time lines that aren't strategically advantageous.
So, at some point we need to come up with what reasonable Ukrainian victory conditions look like. That needs to be generated from real ends-ways-means analysis, and not some magic appeal to international law, customary or otherwise. Lots of the pro-Ukrainian analysis seems at some point to circle back to the innate morality of the Ukrainian cause. At this point, that's overcome by events. This is now a firepower contest, as dictated by the ability of both the contestants to man-train-equip forces in the field, and potentially deliver some decisive blow to the opponent. I don't see that occurring in the near future with the facts as they are.
I think Ukraine is the military equivalent of New Coke. Take it off the shelf=ves and cut your losses.
No matter what reasonable Ukrainian victory conditions "we" come up with, "we" have no means of making them happen. Russia will set the terms, "we" will suffer them.
After the last twenty some years, appeals to international law from the US would be absurd.
If a Russian victory leads to the collapse of the WEFers and their EU puppets, I'd count that as a win for Europe.
It would be a loss for everyone in teh west, including those that pooh pooh Ukraine. As long as a Ukraine has been supplied with what they need, Ukraine holds its own, and even takes back land. The real question about victory for Ukraine is what the west does in support. If Ukraine is abandoned, the loss will be far more devastating and dangerous for teh US than the loss in Vietnam.
Ukraine needs manpower, where is it going to get it from?
The youngest they are drafting now is 25 (down from 27), and that according to legislation signed just yesterday. They have not drawn upon large segments of their population.
The loss of Ukraine to Russia would be no worse than the loss of Mongolia to China. Not worth WWIII.
That's funny. The comparison does not hold water, but that's typical of you MAGAts.
We have tactics, shoot everybody.
Russia has strategy, what will the Ukraine be when this is over.
Big difference.
Russia has intentions. Whether or not that rises to the level of a strategy is questionable.
"we need to come up with what reasonable Ukrainian victory conditions look like."
Good heavens! Why break with tradition? Nebulous generalities are all our "expert" leaders know. Process is more important than actual product. We just keep fighting and everything will turn out good, because we are the good guys.
What is our record in that area? Since WWII, only Korea stands as a testament to our resolve. Everything else, not so much.
I'm glad to hear that, I had heard that we'd allowed North Korean to continue to exist and threaten our allies with nuclear weapons.
That's because we had MacArthur not Milley.
And it got Mac relieved. They sent a man to do a boys job. But, that's OK it Korea Clark and Ridgeway, two very poor choices. The supply situation was getting better when Mac left, but the casualties soared under Ridgeway and Clark. Clark was simply a mediocrity as was his good friend Eisenhower, who probably prolonged the war by 4-6 months at least.
Viet Nam was led largely from DC by the likes of Sec Def. McNamara and his team of quants who apparently were unaware or ignored the extensive conversations between JFK and MacArthur as regards to engaging in a land war in IndoChina. I would say that our resolve there was contaminated by machinations of hacks in DC.
Actually, the war inside S. Vietnam was run from Saigon (Westmorland). I can only speak for myself when I say my resolve was contaminated more by the military hacks in Saigon, An Khe, etc. Nothing I have learned since has changed my mind. I expect political hacks to be ignorant of war and military history. Graduates of staff schools and war colleges, not so much.
Stop this goofy, strange (dare I say 'queer' using the original definition...) foray into a faux morality... Today.
https://www.state.gov/lgbtqi-human-rights/
https://media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com/image/upload/t_fit-1240w,f_auto,q_auto:best/rockcms/2024-03/240322-us-embassy-pride-flag-beg-1059a-ef2502.jpg
Its wreaking havoc in the Muslim sphere from Africa to Asia.
And everywhere else, mars our Foreign Policy as profoundly unserious and capricious.
A nation that promotes the grooming of children for exploitation is not on the right side of history.
Russia does not do so overtly, but Putin seems to have like for boys.
The people pushing that perversion think the US is the indispensable country. If they keep it up, they will learn the hard way that the us can find itself disposable.
I found and read everything I could about Hector Bywater in the 1970s. You seem to be as prescient about what we are now facing as he was in the 1920-40 era. I hope that you are better received than he was then.