The ships in the Red Sea that are under attack do not seem to be associated with China. Coincidence? At the risk of soundling like a conspiracy theorist, I can't help but wonder if the attacks in Israel and now the Red Sea are part of some larger plan against the West. I wonder what's coming next.
Multi-axis attacks are genius on the cheap, what more satisfying to certain minds than to sneak up on a distracted opponent and bash him over the head with a sockful of shite? Works in reverse too, to slip away while one's back is turned. Shoplifting applications are too obvious to mention.
Russia had pretty good timing provoking the October 7th attacks in Israel, but I wonder how long that took to coordinate between Russia, Iran and Iran's proxies. Wonder if they might have liked that to kick off sooner. But they've got what they wanted. And so has China,
The reason these nations always win is because they always keep at it, and why not, because even when caught, they never pay a price. Whatever jail Red Sea pirates go to is probably better than their homes. If that even happens. Killing them? Are you crazy? When was the last time you saw videos of pirates swinging at the yardarm? American contractors, sure. "Armed individuals" of no nation? Never.
I'm not sure this kinder gentler Western Civilization-as-Eloi thing is working out like we* planned...
What about that idea is funny to you, Billy? They have certainly benefited immensely from it so far and that looks likely to continue going forward. Motive = Check. We know they have a warmer relationship with Tehran than any Western counter-part. Means = at least plausible.
Based on what's available open-source I'd agree its speculation, but it doesn't seem so wild-eyed as to be funny.
I think what's funny to Billy is like when you ask the serial killer, where did you bury the bodies, and he laughs, because he didn't bury them, he burned them or fed them to the pigs.
"be wary of any man who keeps a pig farm. They will go through a body that weighs 200 pounds in about eight minutes. That means that a single pig can consume two pounds of uncooked flesh every minute. Hence the expression, 'as greedy as a pig"
Global subversion at every opportunity, diffuse and omnipresent as poison gas, finding every crack. PLAN is just a tool in the whole-of-government toolbox. We only employ this approach against political dissidents. Who's aping the Soviet playbook now?
Maybe at some point, probably not during this regime, we're going to have to send some ordinance downrange into Yemen to stop this stuff. I still think pirates should be hung.
If we were serious, every time a Houthi missile is launched, the launch site would eat some ordnance. Hell, even a non-explosive guided weapon to smash just the launcher itself to try to minimize damage from secondaries (warheads and fuel) would be a message.
I'm assuming that these missiles the Houthi are launching aren't just some Katyusha wannabees launched off a technical, mind you. If I'm wrong then screw non-explosive, and [f-bomb] the secondaries.
You'd think someone in Washington would ask themselves why Yemen (the Houthis are de facto in charge there) is acting just like an Iranian expeditionary force would in support of Hamas. I understand wanting to avoid escalation, but I hope that there are at least some sternly-worded communications flowing from DC to Sanaa and Tehran. Because the moment that one of these missiles manages to hit any US or Israeli personnel, the Houthis are going to have to get a hard reminder that they're a little dog that needs to stay on the porch.
Imagine the training opportunity to respond to Houthi missile attacks by coordinating alpha strikes (I know, I know) using F-35s, Super Hornets, whatever passes for tanking assets these days, and a couple of Hawkeyes.
No smart munitions required, just external racks stuffed with cluster munitions. Sprinkle liberally over the offending launch sites, and then return to the carrier. Hell, you could probably insert some JTACs ahead of time to keep things organized.
It would be decent practice for longer distance strike missions in the East China Sea, and would almost certainly uncover weaknesses now in a relatively harmless environment. It would sure beat losing a few squadrons' worth of aircraft the hard way, finding out only in conflict with the PLA what our vulnerabilities are.
While in principle I agree, for all practical purposes the about only thing LESS likely to happen would be to deploy a nuclear weapon for the purpose. With all the handwringing about how sickbadwrong CBUs are (except when deployed by Ukrainians, apparently), their use for any other purpose would get the Oh So Caring And Sensitive crowd screaming, and the budget people in the military screaming only slightly less loudly.
(Never mind that there would probably not be any lessons learned from such an effort. Doing so would imply that the Brass were Wrong[tm], and that their perfect little plans were foolproof. Given the state of 7th Fleet, that they would be demonstrated to be crap is likely.)
Trying to get my thinking cells operating this morning....I can see three reasons why the PRC ship did not get involved in the piracy takedown. (1) Really, really did not want to get involved in something that could turn into a friendly fire accident. Friendly fire between US and Japan? Everyone writes it off as an accident and boards of inquiry are formed. (2) Unsure of themselves operationally and didn't want to embarrass their country. A variation on that could be that they have no doctrine for anti-piracy ops. A few years back, a PLA unit was part of a UN operation in Africa that went terribly wrong simply due to a lack of training; I'm sure the word is out to never, ever let that happen again. (3) The only reason the PLAN is on station is to gather intelligence and try to look like a concerned party.
If called upon to brief the situation, my personal choice would be #3 with a bit of #2 thrown in.
The instance I was thinking about at the time of my original post was: “China's Troops Get Smoked in First Combat Disaster” - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlKrg1KNafM The video is by a former Army infantryman who posts on YT as “Task & Purpose”, and seems to do a pretty level-headed job of reporting.
I was hedging my bet with adding in #2 since public embarrassment adds nothing to a country’s international stature, which is of temporary interest to PrC.
As I commented recently, are we ready to accept the global challenge of deployed PRC hulls if and when the ball drops in the SCS or Taiwan? There seems to be a mindset that such conflict will be confined to Asian waters. Certainly the PRC will want escort its Iranian oil if we try to interdict it (re: the merchie question)?
Aside from the geopolitical ramifications discussed in the article? Those of us with simple minds want to know, was this simple piracy or an act of war?
The Biden Administration should respond by taking some action against the Houthis across one of the DIME-C domains. If strikes against our forces go unanswered, Iran and her proxies will only escalate further.
What red-blooded Japanese girl could resist a dashing young sailor who's been FIGHTING PIRATES IN THE RED SEA? Talk about a romance that writes itself!
Maybe he was. While at FTG Pearl Harbor we trained a few JMSDF ships. Very professional, respectful, attentive and courteous onboard. Friendly off-duty sharing a beer or a meal. Some got a chuckle out of the little pidgin Japanese I spoke with a gutter accent and ginza slang. Was also stationed on a ship homeported in Yokosuka for 2 years. Plenty of friendly people. Many of my shipmates had Japanese wives. My O-6 boss at CincPacFlt had a Japanese wife.
Never stationed there but spent some time in Yokosuka off and on. We toured one of their Aegis ships (I was FCO on a CG at the time). Looking at timeline it must have been Kongo or Kirishima but I can't recall now. Agree they were very professional and we enjoyed the visit.
Also had a couple friends with Japanese wives (one each) and one was very happy:)
Wow - who knew? Guess I need to call 2 of my pilots when I was at Atsugi that have Japanese wives - or at least they think they do. Altho having been married for 23 years I'm pretty sure they are past the "let's give it a little more time to see if it works out" relationship stage.
Having recently completed reading "Yangtze Patrol," by Kemp Tolley, Rear Admiral,USN ret., I see allot of similarity between the "river rats" of the old Asiatic Fleet and CTF-151. Good work by all of the various units involved. Just the rambling thoughts of an old hermit.
"I wonder what's coming next," Pete said. In view of the non-response to the Houthi's firing 2 ballistic missiles "at" the U.S. and Japanese ships the answer is "more of the same". Boggles my mind that what the Houthi's did was an act of war and all the people in charge saw fit to do was chuckle because they missed by 10 miles. There should have been a massive retaliation as soon as someone yelled "Counterbattery" or "Lookit what those Yemeni yahoos just did. They just tried to kill us." If all we can do is a tepid tap dance choreographed by a committee of clowns we might as well go home. Hollow words from CENTCOM: {“Maritime domain security is essential to regional stability,” said Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, USCENTCOM commander. “We will continue to work with allies and partners to ensure the safety and security of international shipping lanes.”} If CTF-151 has been battling piracy since 2009 we need to ask ourselves why we haven't won yet.
If what you are implying, Billy, is that we need mission creep in order to generate decorations/medals/ribbons creep it just cheapens the awards and leads to folly in national policy. Far better to just allow Service members who feel the genuine need to accessorize like NJROTC high schoolers and have a chit from the resident DEI Agent to buy their chest salad from eBay and estate sales. Meh...in the spirit of Phillip Glass minimalism, I used to like to wear my Good Conduct ribbon with 3 stars and National Service ribbon with 1 star as a statement of understatement when I was a LT in the final year of my career. My inspiration for it was a 14 year EWCM(SW) who was the LCPO of EW"A" School who sported only those 2 awards. We made a fair pair duo with our duo ribbons at NTTC Corry Station, a place where purt near everyone had end-of-tour NAM's & NCM's. Locally, this continues to inspire. http://www.northescambia.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Meet-Chiefs-60301-540x641.jpg
End of tour NAMs & NCM should not be a thing. At my last duty station I was asked to write up my EOT NCM, I told them I didn't want a EOT NCM, so the CO surprised me with a EOT NAM. Unbelievable.
When I was at CNEWS it was a routine thing to see EOT write-ups in my in box or have them hand-delivered unbidden by the intended recipient. It was a rare thing that any of those went anywhere and my thoughts were "Harrumph!" Surprise NAM's are best NAM's. Got mine from Secretary Lehman just before the E-8 and CWO Selection Boards met. Didn't hurt a bit.
The Houthi rebels of Yemen have been at war with the Saudi backed government of Yemen for a very long time. The rebels are trained, funded and equipped by Iran. We very seldom hear of the Yemen civil war because no Israelis or Americans are involved. The ballistic missiles (possibly copies of Soviet Scuds) used very likely of Iranian origin. This is yet another front in the ongoing Iran-Israel war. Iran prefers to wage war with deniable and expendable proxies.
China of course is an ally of Iran, and in any event China cares only for Chinese interests. Which explains, but does not excuse, why Chinese warships ignored a distress call in international waters, which I believe is a violation of the common law of the sea. An administration that actually cared about such things would harshly and publicly criticize China for this. Don't hold your breath.
As for the frigate issue, anti piracy patrols sounds like the kind of duty the LCS should be capable of handling, but apparently not. The Constellation class frigates, once built and if they replace that 57mm pop gun with a real weapon; should be ideal for the anti piracy role, freeing up the valuable Burke class destroyers for more important duty. Oh, and pirates are common enemies of humanity, and once interrogated they should be immediately hanged and the missile launch points and port they operated from destroyed.
The ships in the Red Sea that are under attack do not seem to be associated with China. Coincidence? At the risk of soundling like a conspiracy theorist, I can't help but wonder if the attacks in Israel and now the Red Sea are part of some larger plan against the West. I wonder what's coming next.
Multi-axis attacks are genius on the cheap, what more satisfying to certain minds than to sneak up on a distracted opponent and bash him over the head with a sockful of shite? Works in reverse too, to slip away while one's back is turned. Shoplifting applications are too obvious to mention.
Russia had pretty good timing provoking the October 7th attacks in Israel, but I wonder how long that took to coordinate between Russia, Iran and Iran's proxies. Wonder if they might have liked that to kick off sooner. But they've got what they wanted. And so has China,
The reason these nations always win is because they always keep at it, and why not, because even when caught, they never pay a price. Whatever jail Red Sea pirates go to is probably better than their homes. If that even happens. Killing them? Are you crazy? When was the last time you saw videos of pirates swinging at the yardarm? American contractors, sure. "Armed individuals" of no nation? Never.
I'm not sure this kinder gentler Western Civilization-as-Eloi thing is working out like we* planned...
*Who planned it? The Morlocks?
Russia and China may not even need to do anything except by no longer restraining Iran and its proxies.
For me, that would count as punishable complicity.
Agreed. Sort of like giving an arsonist gasoline and matches and telling him to have a nice time this weekend.
Russia provoked the October 7 attacks? LOL.
What about that idea is funny to you, Billy? They have certainly benefited immensely from it so far and that looks likely to continue going forward. Motive = Check. We know they have a warmer relationship with Tehran than any Western counter-part. Means = at least plausible.
Based on what's available open-source I'd agree its speculation, but it doesn't seem so wild-eyed as to be funny.
I think what's funny to Billy is like when you ask the serial killer, where did you bury the bodies, and he laughs, because he didn't bury them, he burned them or fed them to the pigs.
"be wary of any man who keeps a pig farm. They will go through a body that weighs 200 pounds in about eight minutes. That means that a single pig can consume two pounds of uncooked flesh every minute. Hence the expression, 'as greedy as a pig"
Brick Top
No doubt Russia benefits, doesn't mean they provoked it.
Is it just me, or does the PLAN seem to operate from a playbook like the one the Soviet navy used a few decades back?
Global subversion at every opportunity, diffuse and omnipresent as poison gas, finding every crack. PLAN is just a tool in the whole-of-government toolbox. We only employ this approach against political dissidents. Who's aping the Soviet playbook now?
Stephen Decatur approved.
Maybe at some point, probably not during this regime, we're going to have to send some ordinance downrange into Yemen to stop this stuff. I still think pirates should be hung.
If we were serious, every time a Houthi missile is launched, the launch site would eat some ordnance. Hell, even a non-explosive guided weapon to smash just the launcher itself to try to minimize damage from secondaries (warheads and fuel) would be a message.
I'm assuming that these missiles the Houthi are launching aren't just some Katyusha wannabees launched off a technical, mind you. If I'm wrong then screw non-explosive, and [f-bomb] the secondaries.
You'd think someone in Washington would ask themselves why Yemen (the Houthis are de facto in charge there) is acting just like an Iranian expeditionary force would in support of Hamas. I understand wanting to avoid escalation, but I hope that there are at least some sternly-worded communications flowing from DC to Sanaa and Tehran. Because the moment that one of these missiles manages to hit any US or Israeli personnel, the Houthis are going to have to get a hard reminder that they're a little dog that needs to stay on the porch.
Your faith in "someone in Washington" is as touching as it is misplaced.
Well no, I don't have much faith in anyone in Washington, at least anyone who would be positioned to act on such thoughts.
Gibbets is preferred…
No, Hang them at sea.....in the old manner. The slow dangle, not a quick drop.
Except for slavers: Crucify them. Child traffickers? Impalement.
US would if it had the ammo to spare. But then the move would be to permanently erase the Houthis, once and for all.
"permanently erase the Houthis, once and for all"
But I'm sure there's a downside somewhere.
Imagine the training opportunity to respond to Houthi missile attacks by coordinating alpha strikes (I know, I know) using F-35s, Super Hornets, whatever passes for tanking assets these days, and a couple of Hawkeyes.
No smart munitions required, just external racks stuffed with cluster munitions. Sprinkle liberally over the offending launch sites, and then return to the carrier. Hell, you could probably insert some JTACs ahead of time to keep things organized.
It would be decent practice for longer distance strike missions in the East China Sea, and would almost certainly uncover weaknesses now in a relatively harmless environment. It would sure beat losing a few squadrons' worth of aircraft the hard way, finding out only in conflict with the PLA what our vulnerabilities are.
While in principle I agree, for all practical purposes the about only thing LESS likely to happen would be to deploy a nuclear weapon for the purpose. With all the handwringing about how sickbadwrong CBUs are (except when deployed by Ukrainians, apparently), their use for any other purpose would get the Oh So Caring And Sensitive crowd screaming, and the budget people in the military screaming only slightly less loudly.
(Never mind that there would probably not be any lessons learned from such an effort. Doing so would imply that the Brass were Wrong[tm], and that their perfect little plans were foolproof. Given the state of 7th Fleet, that they would be demonstrated to be crap is likely.)
Trying to get my thinking cells operating this morning....I can see three reasons why the PRC ship did not get involved in the piracy takedown. (1) Really, really did not want to get involved in something that could turn into a friendly fire accident. Friendly fire between US and Japan? Everyone writes it off as an accident and boards of inquiry are formed. (2) Unsure of themselves operationally and didn't want to embarrass their country. A variation on that could be that they have no doctrine for anti-piracy ops. A few years back, a PLA unit was part of a UN operation in Africa that went terribly wrong simply due to a lack of training; I'm sure the word is out to never, ever let that happen again. (3) The only reason the PLAN is on station is to gather intelligence and try to look like a concerned party.
If called upon to brief the situation, my personal choice would be #3 with a bit of #2 thrown in.
"A few years back, a PLA unit was part of a UN operation in Africa that went terribly wrong simply due to a lack of training"
Never heard about this. Can you elaborate?
I forget the name of the video, but YouTuber Serpentza had it as part of a video about China. Sudan, iirc.
The instance I was thinking about at the time of my original post was: “China's Troops Get Smoked in First Combat Disaster” - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlKrg1KNafM The video is by a former Army infantryman who posts on YT as “Task & Purpose”, and seems to do a pretty level-headed job of reporting.
And since the PLA are in the habit of tactical incompetence, we get – “UN Peacekeepers Refused to Help as Aid Workers Were Raped in South Sudan” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/06/un-peacekeepers-refused-to-help-south-sudan-rebels-raped-aid-workers-report
These sources pop up in a Google search on “Chinese army Africa UN disaster”.
And on the general topic of the PRC in Africa, we can also crib the notes of our friends at West Point - https://mwi.westpoint.edu/beijings-blue-helmets-what-to-make-of-chinas-role-in-un-peacekeeping-in-africa/
Thanks!
Or 4# the check cleared/didn't clear.
Its most likely # 3. China is concerned only with her own interests.
I was hedging my bet with adding in #2 since public embarrassment adds nothing to a country’s international stature, which is of temporary interest to PrC.
NGL, this is the thing about China I envy the most
#3. It's what they do.
We collect intel as well, but at least we try to do good while on station.
As I commented recently, are we ready to accept the global challenge of deployed PRC hulls if and when the ball drops in the SCS or Taiwan? There seems to be a mindset that such conflict will be confined to Asian waters. Certainly the PRC will want escort its Iranian oil if we try to interdict it (re: the merchie question)?
Baron Kato Tomosaburo's dream of a Japanese-American naval alliance for global law and order on the high seas is now a reality.
https://valor.militarytimes.com/hero/16625
Classic Scuds? or some Iranian variant? Chinese?
Aside from the geopolitical ramifications discussed in the article? Those of us with simple minds want to know, was this simple piracy or an act of war?
I'd call the boarding "piracy"; but the missile launch? Presume Mason was in International Waters, thus I'd call it war.
Seems like the response should be clear. Perhaps the NSA to Biden can prove the CDR SAL performance assessment wrong.
Lotta things SHOULD be clear, but aren't. My money's on Sal.
The Biden Administration should respond by taking some action against the Houthis across one of the DIME-C domains. If strikes against our forces go unanswered, Iran and her proxies will only escalate further.
How quaint.
Sounds like we're edging closer to a combined USMC/Special Naval Landing Infantry op in Yemen.
Not likely. I'd settle for a couple missile strikes to the Houthis C2 nodes. Tell them to back off.
What red-blooded Japanese girl could resist a dashing young sailor who's been FIGHTING PIRATES IN THE RED SEA? Talk about a romance that writes itself!
Nice sentiment, but the Japanese are psychologically incapable of liking or being friends with non Japanese.
I think he was talking about the Japanese ship's sailors
Maybe he was. While at FTG Pearl Harbor we trained a few JMSDF ships. Very professional, respectful, attentive and courteous onboard. Friendly off-duty sharing a beer or a meal. Some got a chuckle out of the little pidgin Japanese I spoke with a gutter accent and ginza slang. Was also stationed on a ship homeported in Yokosuka for 2 years. Plenty of friendly people. Many of my shipmates had Japanese wives. My O-6 boss at CincPacFlt had a Japanese wife.
Never stationed there but spent some time in Yokosuka off and on. We toured one of their Aegis ships (I was FCO on a CG at the time). Looking at timeline it must have been Kongo or Kirishima but I can't recall now. Agree they were very professional and we enjoyed the visit.
Also had a couple friends with Japanese wives (one each) and one was very happy:)
Wow - who knew? Guess I need to call 2 of my pilots when I was at Atsugi that have Japanese wives - or at least they think they do. Altho having been married for 23 years I'm pretty sure they are past the "let's give it a little more time to see if it works out" relationship stage.
I have hours of sea stories that proves you wrong.
You should tell my Mom that, but she's been gone for 8 years. She was born in Osaka, my Dad in Westchester County, NY.
Her two sisters married Gaijin, also.
Having recently completed reading "Yangtze Patrol," by Kemp Tolley, Rear Admiral,USN ret., I see allot of similarity between the "river rats" of the old Asiatic Fleet and CTF-151. Good work by all of the various units involved. Just the rambling thoughts of an old hermit.
"I wonder what's coming next," Pete said. In view of the non-response to the Houthi's firing 2 ballistic missiles "at" the U.S. and Japanese ships the answer is "more of the same". Boggles my mind that what the Houthi's did was an act of war and all the people in charge saw fit to do was chuckle because they missed by 10 miles. There should have been a massive retaliation as soon as someone yelled "Counterbattery" or "Lookit what those Yemeni yahoos just did. They just tried to kill us." If all we can do is a tepid tap dance choreographed by a committee of clowns we might as well go home. Hollow words from CENTCOM: {“Maritime domain security is essential to regional stability,” said Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, USCENTCOM commander. “We will continue to work with allies and partners to ensure the safety and security of international shipping lanes.”} If CTF-151 has been battling piracy since 2009 we need to ask ourselves why we haven't won yet.
Why go home, doesn't the crew now get a Combat Action Ribbon? Heck some O's might get a "V" attached to some award!
I can see those ships getting filled with "observers" trying to get their decorations. Can't destroy those launchers, not just yet.
If what you are implying, Billy, is that we need mission creep in order to generate decorations/medals/ribbons creep it just cheapens the awards and leads to folly in national policy. Far better to just allow Service members who feel the genuine need to accessorize like NJROTC high schoolers and have a chit from the resident DEI Agent to buy their chest salad from eBay and estate sales. Meh...in the spirit of Phillip Glass minimalism, I used to like to wear my Good Conduct ribbon with 3 stars and National Service ribbon with 1 star as a statement of understatement when I was a LT in the final year of my career. My inspiration for it was a 14 year EWCM(SW) who was the LCPO of EW"A" School who sported only those 2 awards. We made a fair pair duo with our duo ribbons at NTTC Corry Station, a place where purt near everyone had end-of-tour NAM's & NCM's. Locally, this continues to inspire. http://www.northescambia.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Meet-Chiefs-60301-540x641.jpg
End of tour NAMs & NCM should not be a thing. At my last duty station I was asked to write up my EOT NCM, I told them I didn't want a EOT NCM, so the CO surprised me with a EOT NAM. Unbelievable.
When I was at CNEWS it was a routine thing to see EOT write-ups in my in box or have them hand-delivered unbidden by the intended recipient. It was a rare thing that any of those went anywhere and my thoughts were "Harrumph!" Surprise NAM's are best NAM's. Got mine from Secretary Lehman just before the E-8 and CWO Selection Boards met. Didn't hurt a bit.
That's back in the day when NAMs meant something. Now if you don't get one at the end of your tour (or a NCM), it's a a mark against you.
"You can’t buy training like that."
We did buy it though, by freeing up those funds for Iran:)
The Houthi rebels of Yemen have been at war with the Saudi backed government of Yemen for a very long time. The rebels are trained, funded and equipped by Iran. We very seldom hear of the Yemen civil war because no Israelis or Americans are involved. The ballistic missiles (possibly copies of Soviet Scuds) used very likely of Iranian origin. This is yet another front in the ongoing Iran-Israel war. Iran prefers to wage war with deniable and expendable proxies.
China of course is an ally of Iran, and in any event China cares only for Chinese interests. Which explains, but does not excuse, why Chinese warships ignored a distress call in international waters, which I believe is a violation of the common law of the sea. An administration that actually cared about such things would harshly and publicly criticize China for this. Don't hold your breath.
As for the frigate issue, anti piracy patrols sounds like the kind of duty the LCS should be capable of handling, but apparently not. The Constellation class frigates, once built and if they replace that 57mm pop gun with a real weapon; should be ideal for the anti piracy role, freeing up the valuable Burke class destroyers for more important duty. Oh, and pirates are common enemies of humanity, and once interrogated they should be immediately hanged and the missile launch points and port they operated from destroyed.
A five incher!