Our everyday lives depend on an incredibly brittle infrastructure of power and data. Once again, TheSmartestPeopleInTheRoom have failed to understand that bad people/countries do bad things, like break all of your toys - especially when it gives them greater power over you and yours. Some days you just want to slap some people upside the head to get their attention. Sigh.
So, what is the best response? Perhaps arresting this specific Chinese ship for starters. Then, require all Chinese and Russian ships to have a NATO country pilot onboard whenever the ship is within a NATO country’s EEZ. Just to prevent any further accidents, of course. Would that affect Chinese exports? Oh, so sad. Actions should have consequences.
The Russians are laying the groundwork to do this through the Northern Sea Route as the ice permanently melts away. It will be interesting to see how the worlds' shipping companies respond.
Suggest taking a hard look at "ice permanently melting away". History shows it's happened before, and was anything but "permanent". Might happen...again...or not. Just sayin'...
A viable Northern Sea Route significantly reduces the time to ship from East Asia to Western Europe. The point wasn't really to talk about climate change, but rather that the Russians are taking advantage of new sea lanes that haven't existed in a long time. The Chinese are right alongside them. We won't be able to do much to challenge excessive Russian claims in the area because we don't have ice breakers.
I would argue that, since the 200nm EEZ limit addresses and includes ocean bottom assets, communication cables are included in that treaty. Ultimately, all national claims are upheld only by power. Sink them? Not my first choice, but stranger things have happened.
"Our everyday lives depend on an incredibly brittle infrastructure of power and data."
By design. TheSmartestPeopleInTheRoom would do well to sit down with William Adama or take a couple of lessons from Montgomery Scott. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4WJsp16CpY
Over two months after Hurricane Helene and the country is still dealing with a critical saline shortage. Hospitals in Utah remain in a yellow status, with two weeks or less quantities sufficient for expected number of emergency cases. A basic item of medicine that was able to be produced at point-of-use in a hospital from it's discovery in 1831 by Brooke O’Shaughnessy, through two World Wars, and into the 1950's is now dependent on a handful of computer controlled plants in North America.
The lesson here is: Don’t fuck around and find out. Pull support from Ukraine, let them and the Russians figure it out, and start treating China and Russia like our equals.
No mention of the Nord Stream pipelines? We sabotaged them, so they are sabotaging us. Im on our side, of course, but the only surprising thing is that it didnt happen sooner.
ATACMS require highly sophisticated intel & accurate targeting. The kinds of things way up in the sky that US has and Ukraine does not possess. And a level of classified training & access that are reserved for US, and only "very special" NATO players. Russians understand this, which is why they say that if these US ATACMS hit Russian soil, it's via the efforts of US personnel, and Russia considers this an act of war. This is exactly what they said, and this is how they view things.
Thanks. I confess to having a very literal mind. My wife would confirm this. :)
When I read "US personnel firing..." my mind sees only an American literally pressing the fire button. Yes, this had led to many moments of confusion in my past.
You might call it an act of war. Or you might call it terrorism. Or just plain criminal mischief in international waters. In any case, what you do about it is what gives it its name. For as Mao said all authority comes from the muzzle of a gun. Or something like that. Currently the victims and their related parties in interest seem hesitant to do anything. Thus the point in principle is made. And it provides a poor example in so far as European leadership is concerned.
If a Maersk ship left a Chinese port without paying its bill, does anyone here think that the PLAN would hesitate to arrest it, anywhere within its control ?? There is state action here. This is a blunt provocation. And the purpose is to assert Chinese power, everywhere, but principally where it can be, in the SCS. For seizure of this ship will gain degrees of freedom for the PLAN there.
Swedish and allied leaders are overthinking this. Arrest the ship, the captain and the crew. Take them to a Swedish port. Let the victims file claims against the vessel. Charge the captain and responsible officers with a lifetime of charges. As for evidence, what is there other than the fact that the vessel dragged its anchor for 100 miles and was caught moving with it down.
Or take more risk and have a smaller vessel mounting a pair of 120mm mortars take out the onshore infrastructure of the cables. Then go a little bit more up or down the coast taking out tank farms, electric towers, etc. Keep a couple MANPADS handy for annoying CG helicopters.
"...but no authority had shown evidence that its actions were deliberate."
I'm not sure how you could consider dragging your anchor for a hundred miles as anything but deliberate. Plus, this isn't the first time a Chinese ship has done such within the last year or so. There's really only two options here. 1) it was deliberate, and the Chinese shouldn't be allowed anywhere near NATO waters, or 2) The Chinese are so inept at sailing that they shouldn't be allowed anywhere near NATO waters. And while the Chinese have some issues with advance technology, I certainly wouldn't consider them inept at something so basic as sailing.
We're dancing around here. Deliberate sabotage demands deliberate action. While "we" replace the damaged cables, send China the bill, and in the meantime impound the ship and crew. If that doesn't get their attention prohibit Chinese ships from entering the area until the bill is paid. Bullies only respond to force.
Well, putting on one of my old scenario development hats, a potentially key question is "why now?". You can do this anytime (as demonstrated). Are the "perpetrators" just "lashing out" in response to ATACMS or for some other reason? Call it "hybrid warfare" or "total war" or "all elements of national power"...why now? Chinese ship, immediate benefit to...Russia, apparently. Highlights "new frontiers" of warfare (high and low!). Internet, technology, movement of critical data all links to space VERY heavily...and also terrestrially, to hardware cables, largely undersea. So, the frontiers of "international competition" at the highest level (warfare, conflict between nations) has new "heights" and depths...the oceans, and space. How do we protect that? Given the track record against the Houthis, a very open question...initial answer is not very well. Once again, the world wonders.
We already have had “bumps”. Is reason Boeing actually was successful in developing the X-37 while we were all distracted by the early years of the WOT.
Space incidents in the early 00s were numerous. Think about how fast the AF got the X-37 flying. That program was maybe 4 years then we had them flying for months & years up there.
I'm a simple old Jarhead and Chair Force retiree, but it seems to me that dragging an anchor for 100 miles in the Baltic Sea is just begging to snag something more substantial than a couple of data cables. How many sunken ships are down there, including iron/steel ships? I suspect snagging an old freighter or warship might raise some hell in the forecastle on that Chinese ship. Just guessing.
Good point. As I said I'm just an old Jarhead and Air Fart. What do I know about dragging anchors? :-) Maybe Sweden can get the ship's captain for failure to obtain a fishing license since he was obviously trolling?
Which shows us the CCP has mapped all our choke points & have a plan ready to go.
Makes for nightmare fuel when you play things out. China’s 6,600 strong shipping fleet & close to 400 million dead weight tonnage could not only shut down communications but rain down ordnance anywhere at anytime and all from close in.
If a small pilot boat almost sunk the Cole imagine what 5% of their shipping fleet can do.
If you want to get China's attention, pick a week and bar all Chinese ships from European ports. Send a note explaining that it'll be two weeks the next time a Chinese ship drags an anchor. They will get the message.
Our everyday lives depend on an incredibly brittle infrastructure of power and data. Once again, TheSmartestPeopleInTheRoom have failed to understand that bad people/countries do bad things, like break all of your toys - especially when it gives them greater power over you and yours. Some days you just want to slap some people upside the head to get their attention. Sigh.
So, what is the best response? Perhaps arresting this specific Chinese ship for starters. Then, require all Chinese and Russian ships to have a NATO country pilot onboard whenever the ship is within a NATO country’s EEZ. Just to prevent any further accidents, of course. Would that affect Chinese exports? Oh, so sad. Actions should have consequences.
And what if the Russian and Chinese ships say no? Sink them? BTW, sovereignty is limited to 12 nm not 200 nm.
The Russians are laying the groundwork to do this through the Northern Sea Route as the ice permanently melts away. It will be interesting to see how the worlds' shipping companies respond.
Suggest taking a hard look at "ice permanently melting away". History shows it's happened before, and was anything but "permanent". Might happen...again...or not. Just sayin'...
A viable Northern Sea Route significantly reduces the time to ship from East Asia to Western Europe. The point wasn't really to talk about climate change, but rather that the Russians are taking advantage of new sea lanes that haven't existed in a long time. The Chinese are right alongside them. We won't be able to do much to challenge excessive Russian claims in the area because we don't have ice breakers.
I would argue that, since the 200nm EEZ limit addresses and includes ocean bottom assets, communication cables are included in that treaty. Ultimately, all national claims are upheld only by power. Sink them? Not my first choice, but stranger things have happened.
"Our everyday lives depend on an incredibly brittle infrastructure of power and data."
By design. TheSmartestPeopleInTheRoom would do well to sit down with William Adama or take a couple of lessons from Montgomery Scott. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4WJsp16CpY
Over two months after Hurricane Helene and the country is still dealing with a critical saline shortage. Hospitals in Utah remain in a yellow status, with two weeks or less quantities sufficient for expected number of emergency cases. A basic item of medicine that was able to be produced at point-of-use in a hospital from it's discovery in 1831 by Brooke O’Shaughnessy, through two World Wars, and into the 1950's is now dependent on a handful of computer controlled plants in North America.
Yay team!
The lesson here is: Don’t fuck around and find out. Pull support from Ukraine, let them and the Russians figure it out, and start treating China and Russia like our equals.
No mention of the Nord Stream pipelines? We sabotaged them, so they are sabotaging us. Im on our side, of course, but the only surprising thing is that it didnt happen sooner.
I wonder how Russia will respond to US personnel firing ATACMS into Russia.
Russia mobilized in 1914 when the Austrian were shelling Belgrade.
Our Best and Brightest in DC truly want a world war.
Same best and brightest as in 1963….
I haven't been able to find any reports of US personnel firing ATACMS. Do you have a link or links to information on this?
Who else? ATACMS are not shotguns. A bit more sophisticated.
ATACMS require highly sophisticated intel & accurate targeting. The kinds of things way up in the sky that US has and Ukraine does not possess. And a level of classified training & access that are reserved for US, and only "very special" NATO players. Russians understand this, which is why they say that if these US ATACMS hit Russian soil, it's via the efforts of US personnel, and Russia considers this an act of war. This is exactly what they said, and this is how they view things.
Thanks. I confess to having a very literal mind. My wife would confirm this. :)
When I read "US personnel firing..." my mind sees only an American literally pressing the fire button. Yes, this had led to many moments of confusion in my past.
They did. They fired off the Oreshnik. I take it NATO got the message, since there hasn’t been any strikes since.
Horrible. We should respond by destroying the Nord Stream pipelines… never mind.
Don't forget Operation Ivy Bells.
https://youtu.be/71zgSBVR7D4?si=pA1x6nIHvRMKEI7O
A case of exploitation instead of denial...
Tell me again how it makes sense to keep all your sensitive classified stuff 'in the Cloud'?
https://www.c4isrnet.com/industry/2023/08/16/orders-flooding-in-on-pentagons-9-billion-cloud-contract/
Orders flooding in on Pentagon’s $9 billion cloud contract
Yeah. I can access a commercial contracted cloud drive anywhere in the world using BYOD for the DoD. The CIO must have decided the risk is worth it.
What could possibly go wrong?
You might call it an act of war. Or you might call it terrorism. Or just plain criminal mischief in international waters. In any case, what you do about it is what gives it its name. For as Mao said all authority comes from the muzzle of a gun. Or something like that. Currently the victims and their related parties in interest seem hesitant to do anything. Thus the point in principle is made. And it provides a poor example in so far as European leadership is concerned.
If a Maersk ship left a Chinese port without paying its bill, does anyone here think that the PLAN would hesitate to arrest it, anywhere within its control ?? There is state action here. This is a blunt provocation. And the purpose is to assert Chinese power, everywhere, but principally where it can be, in the SCS. For seizure of this ship will gain degrees of freedom for the PLAN there.
Swedish and allied leaders are overthinking this. Arrest the ship, the captain and the crew. Take them to a Swedish port. Let the victims file claims against the vessel. Charge the captain and responsible officers with a lifetime of charges. As for evidence, what is there other than the fact that the vessel dragged its anchor for 100 miles and was caught moving with it down.
and turned off AIS before crossing the cable
Or take more risk and have a smaller vessel mounting a pair of 120mm mortars take out the onshore infrastructure of the cables. Then go a little bit more up or down the coast taking out tank farms, electric towers, etc. Keep a couple MANPADS handy for annoying CG helicopters.
Yup. The CCP on the seas is nightmare fuel. Can’t hate the WTO enough for helping them act on Mao plan.
"USLOC's" Oh yeah! credit where credit due! Do!
(dang marine Morlocks severed our USLOC's)
Thanks for the new ear worm. I am hearing Sean Connery as James Bond saying, "You Schlocks".
"...but no authority had shown evidence that its actions were deliberate."
I'm not sure how you could consider dragging your anchor for a hundred miles as anything but deliberate. Plus, this isn't the first time a Chinese ship has done such within the last year or so. There's really only two options here. 1) it was deliberate, and the Chinese shouldn't be allowed anywhere near NATO waters, or 2) The Chinese are so inept at sailing that they shouldn't be allowed anywhere near NATO waters. And while the Chinese have some issues with advance technology, I certainly wouldn't consider them inept at something so basic as sailing.
1a) They are conductting "live fire" training on the enemies side of the field. Great practice if you can get away with it!
We're dancing around here. Deliberate sabotage demands deliberate action. While "we" replace the damaged cables, send China the bill, and in the meantime impound the ship and crew. If that doesn't get their attention prohibit Chinese ships from entering the area until the bill is paid. Bullies only respond to force.
Which explains how the Houthis are still in control of who can safely transit the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden.
it's the EEZ not national waters
So are the cables.
Well, putting on one of my old scenario development hats, a potentially key question is "why now?". You can do this anytime (as demonstrated). Are the "perpetrators" just "lashing out" in response to ATACMS or for some other reason? Call it "hybrid warfare" or "total war" or "all elements of national power"...why now? Chinese ship, immediate benefit to...Russia, apparently. Highlights "new frontiers" of warfare (high and low!). Internet, technology, movement of critical data all links to space VERY heavily...and also terrestrially, to hardware cables, largely undersea. So, the frontiers of "international competition" at the highest level (warfare, conflict between nations) has new "heights" and depths...the oceans, and space. How do we protect that? Given the track record against the Houthis, a very open question...initial answer is not very well. Once again, the world wonders.
expect Satellite Whoopsie bumps
We already have had “bumps”. Is reason Boeing actually was successful in developing the X-37 while we were all distracted by the early years of the WOT.
Space incidents in the early 00s were numerous. Think about how fast the AF got the X-37 flying. That program was maybe 4 years then we had them flying for months & years up there.
I'm a simple old Jarhead and Chair Force retiree, but it seems to me that dragging an anchor for 100 miles in the Baltic Sea is just begging to snag something more substantial than a couple of data cables. How many sunken ships are down there, including iron/steel ships? I suspect snagging an old freighter or warship might raise some hell in the forecastle on that Chinese ship. Just guessing.
Those hulks (steel ones at least) are well mapped. If you are going to practice this evolution then you will steer well clear of those.
Good point. As I said I'm just an old Jarhead and Air Fart. What do I know about dragging anchors? :-) Maybe Sweden can get the ship's captain for failure to obtain a fishing license since he was obviously trolling?
Which shows us the CCP has mapped all our choke points & have a plan ready to go.
Makes for nightmare fuel when you play things out. China’s 6,600 strong shipping fleet & close to 400 million dead weight tonnage could not only shut down communications but rain down ordnance anywhere at anytime and all from close in.
If a small pilot boat almost sunk the Cole imagine what 5% of their shipping fleet can do.
If you want to get China's attention, pick a week and bar all Chinese ships from European ports. Send a note explaining that it'll be two weeks the next time a Chinese ship drags an anchor. They will get the message.
Sal,
Really good posting. Not the first time that the PRC and Russians have done this.
BTW...on a separate note, are you tracking the latest from GAO on Amphips. Reviewed it this morning. Dismal assessment on LSD & LHD.
https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-25-106728.pdf
"No anchor! Fishing rine!"
"Weakness is provocative." -Donald Rumsfeld
Well, given that the US blew up Nordstream...