Do we have a better chance of winning a conflict now, or five years from now?
I’m sure that question is part of the equation isn’t it?
Sucks that it may come to that, but isn’t the PRC pushing everyone in that direction? How long until they claim a piece of the Philippines as their own?
The magnitude of suck in this situation is underappreciated by the U.S. and the world. All part and parcel to the slow, willing slide into a new, brutal Dark Age.
CDR Sal, excellent framing of a very complex situation. Since "international law" is not backed up by "international law enforcement" that is credible and sufficient, it is useless as a forced compliance mechanism for actors who care not for the umbrage and outrage of international law "experts". These "experts" may even be correct that by the letter of "international law" the PI is in the right. To my "non-expert" opinion they certainly are. But what are "we" (the U.S. and "international community") willing and / or capable of doing about it? China's attitude of "possession is 90 percent of the law" is probably legally defensible in "international law" (I'll leave that for the "experts"). As a practical matter, once someone has "boots on the ground", you either have to coerce their government via diplomatic or economic pressure (sanctions? tariffs?) to leave voluntarily, or remove them via physical force. Which is by its nature escalatory and opens up all sorts of possibilities for mistakes spiraling out of control. Deterrence requires both parties to understand red lines, capabilities and potential consequences. IMO we have failed, and are continuing to fail in the region. We may not be seeing that at the policy making level, but the other regional actors (Japan, S. Korea, Viet Nam, PI) are well aware of what is happening, and have to be asking if they can really count on the U.S. to honor its treaty obligations.
Would China be pushing this issue if the Philippines hadn't forced the removal of US troops? International law seems similar to a strangely worded letter.
(edit) I meant strongly worded letter, but maybe strangely worded works also...
CDR Sal, you did not mention the anti western/likes authoritarianism/disinformation players/cliques in the PHL like 2 former Presidents and the current one and their allied officials, etc. So technically the PHL loss was caused also by the decision makers undermining the need to modernize the AFP and the PCG like buying/budgeting for follow on ships of the BRP Teresa, etc from the Japanese which are efficient and fast ship builders.
The Battle of the West Philippine Sea ..... It has a ring to it. Who would be the winner of that major combat engagement in the year 2044 when the PRC has a fleet of six or seven carrier battle groups supported by a robust fleet logistics element?
All the mistakes of the past 20 years are slowly coming to bear fruit. Won't be nice, won't be easy, but that's it.
And yes, you're fully right that international order is nothing. Russia's invasion of Ukraine showed it, China's behaviour in the West Philippine Sea shows it, etc. etc.
When we are forced to buy electric skateboards for transportation by the Harris administration they will be produced in Chinese factories powered by coal.
Our leaders have failed the Philippines as well as everyone else , except the Chinese.
China’s $1 billion investment in Hunter was the best deal in history right up there with the Alaska purchase, Louisiana purchase and the Dutch purchase of Manhattan for $24.
So what is our Navy or USCG doing. 80 miles out and back is half to a third of the range of multiple US and PI helos. Why not fly stuff out. Call it a training exercise The PI Navy has a number of small helo capable amphibs. send a LCS out to maneuver with some PI boats out to within 40 miles. use US or PI birds to avoid the CCP Cutters
Israel has just injured hundreds of Hezzbollah fighters by causing the lithium batteries in their personal pagers to explode. If this can be done to a small pager's lithium battery by overcharging it, then it can be done to a much larger lithium battery being used as storage backup in a military or civilan grid-scale electricity supply system. Much of the technology of which is now manufactured in China.
Do we have a better chance of winning a conflict now, or five years from now?
I’m sure that question is part of the equation isn’t it?
Sucks that it may come to that, but isn’t the PRC pushing everyone in that direction? How long until they claim a piece of the Philippines as their own?
Now. For sure. If we wait 5 years will be in even worse shape.
In 5 years the USN will be limited everywhere except Guam.
The magnitude of suck in this situation is underappreciated by the U.S. and the world. All part and parcel to the slow, willing slide into a new, brutal Dark Age.
"And I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords."
— Kent Brockman, craven news anchor upon believing that alien giant ants have invaded Earth (The Simpsons)
Too bad about the Philippines. Be sure to let us know if there's anything we can do to make your future existence under PRC rule easier to bear...
CDR Sal, excellent framing of a very complex situation. Since "international law" is not backed up by "international law enforcement" that is credible and sufficient, it is useless as a forced compliance mechanism for actors who care not for the umbrage and outrage of international law "experts". These "experts" may even be correct that by the letter of "international law" the PI is in the right. To my "non-expert" opinion they certainly are. But what are "we" (the U.S. and "international community") willing and / or capable of doing about it? China's attitude of "possession is 90 percent of the law" is probably legally defensible in "international law" (I'll leave that for the "experts"). As a practical matter, once someone has "boots on the ground", you either have to coerce their government via diplomatic or economic pressure (sanctions? tariffs?) to leave voluntarily, or remove them via physical force. Which is by its nature escalatory and opens up all sorts of possibilities for mistakes spiraling out of control. Deterrence requires both parties to understand red lines, capabilities and potential consequences. IMO we have failed, and are continuing to fail in the region. We may not be seeing that at the policy making level, but the other regional actors (Japan, S. Korea, Viet Nam, PI) are well aware of what is happening, and have to be asking if they can really count on the U.S. to honor its treaty obligations.
Would China be pushing this issue if the Philippines hadn't forced the removal of US troops? International law seems similar to a strangely worded letter.
(edit) I meant strongly worded letter, but maybe strangely worded works also...
Under a Democrat Administration, no one can trust us. They have been bought and paid for, by the PRC.
It was bad enough with the president's kid taking millions from PRC.
It will be even worse if we get a Veep who has been to PRC 31 times on his own.
Chinese investments are for the long term, and usually pay off very well.
CDR Sal, you did not mention the anti western/likes authoritarianism/disinformation players/cliques in the PHL like 2 former Presidents and the current one and their allied officials, etc. So technically the PHL loss was caused also by the decision makers undermining the need to modernize the AFP and the PCG like buying/budgeting for follow on ships of the BRP Teresa, etc from the Japanese which are efficient and fast ship builders.
Just like China is really West Taiwan
The Battle of the West Philippine Sea ..... It has a ring to it. Who would be the winner of that major combat engagement in the year 2044 when the PRC has a fleet of six or seven carrier battle groups supported by a robust fleet logistics element?
Proton beam space zapper. Whoever can pay the most gets to target and trigger it. Who wins THAT one?
"Uh Elon, could you make some Falcons for Uncle? They don't need to be reusable."
Why would PRC even bother with carriers?
Who knows, but they seem to be building a lot of them, and at a much faster rate than we are. They will figure out some use for them.
Carriers are great defensive weapons, but handy for offense too, if they decide to expand their territorial ambitions.
At the rate things are going, the PRC will not amount to much around 2030.
Isn't today supposed to be Feel-Good Tuesday?
Man, it's not even Friday and that wsa fullbore...
All the mistakes of the past 20 years are slowly coming to bear fruit. Won't be nice, won't be easy, but that's it.
And yes, you're fully right that international order is nothing. Russia's invasion of Ukraine showed it, China's behaviour in the West Philippine Sea shows it, etc. etc.
When we are forced to buy electric skateboards for transportation by the Harris administration they will be produced in Chinese factories powered by coal.
Our leaders have failed the Philippines as well as everyone else , except the Chinese.
They should never have kicked us out of Subic Bay.
Or Clark, or Camp John Hay, or....
China’s $1 billion investment in Hunter was the best deal in history right up there with the Alaska purchase, Louisiana purchase and the Dutch purchase of Manhattan for $24.
West Philippine Sea is catchy.
So what is our Navy or USCG doing. 80 miles out and back is half to a third of the range of multiple US and PI helos. Why not fly stuff out. Call it a training exercise The PI Navy has a number of small helo capable amphibs. send a LCS out to maneuver with some PI boats out to within 40 miles. use US or PI birds to avoid the CCP Cutters
Rusting. We're rusting.
Israel has just injured hundreds of Hezzbollah fighters by causing the lithium batteries in their personal pagers to explode. If this can be done to a small pager's lithium battery by overcharging it, then it can be done to a much larger lithium battery being used as storage backup in a military or civilan grid-scale electricity supply system. Much of the technology of which is now manufactured in China.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-september-17-2024/?utm_source=article_hpsidebar&utm_medium=desktop_site&utm_campaign=liveblog_entry
9 Hezbollah dead, 7 more Syrian fighters. Waiting for pictures to come out on social media showing childrens toys ablaze.
Rumor is the Mossad added Pentaerythritol tetranitrate to the battery electrolyte somewhere in the supply chain.
Isn't it great that we can buy everything in China and save money!
Chinese electrical generation technology that is part of the "green" movement is a tremendous vulnerability.
As usual, and as always, thanks so very much for what you do for us Sal.
You are, and have always been right on!
ATVB - Sid
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Visualizing-All-of-Chinas-Trade-Partners-Full-Size.html
Front page WSJ headline: "U.S. Officials Jet to Beijing Amid Flood of Cheap Chinese Exports;
in talks, Washington intends to highlight concerns over China’s manufacturing overcapacity..."
Nothing a huge tariff wouldn’t cure
But that would cut into "American" corporate profits, teachers union 401ks, and the standard of living of the laptop class in DelMarVa.